Rise and Fall: Talent Changes Through the Offseason
Posted: Mon Mar 18, 2019 4:45 pm
Championship teams win on the court, but one can argue that they are made in the offseason. It's everyone's favorite part of PBSL, where trades, the draft, and free agency makes the difference between playoffs or tanking. Adding talent to your team in any of these fashions can completely transform your squad.
Tangentially related, I've always been fascinated at the talent ratings in the game. As you know, I used the ratings to create my Chemistry and Talent reports, and may one day do so again once my free time isn't as completely swallowed up by increasing work loads and a tiny human. The talent system is very interesting but also not completely understood: it seems to take several different things into account, such as potential, league-wide talent, and end of bench players.
I was thinking about this earlier in the offseason, after the draft but before restricted free agency. I was milling about the index and found that my talent was average, which I thought was generous. I then wondered what it would take to get me to good talent, and then I started thinking about the league as a whole. How vastly does talent rating change in an offseason? It's likely that some teams only have a handful of players because of their players hitting RFA or UFA, and I wanted to see which teams improved and which got worse according to the game. So before restricted free agency, I wrote down each team's talent level and the amount of players they had on their roster. I then went into the game today, on the start of the season, to see how that talent level changed and how many players were added or removed. What I found was interesting: I expected most teams to either stay the same or improve. However, over a third of the teams got worse in talent rating. It could be the players they didn't sign in free agency, or the league talent catching up -- in any case, they plunged.
I have created categories to put each team in based on how many talent spots they rose or fell. To clarify, there are five rankings of talent: BAD, POOR, AVG, GOOD, and GREAT. So it was possible for a team to rise or fall 4, 3, 2, or 1 rankings, or stay the same. Below are the categories that I created, and the teams that fit into them. Because I'm in a good mood, we'll start with the positive ratings.
JETPACK
These teams gained 3 or 4 rankings of talent from before RFA to the start of the season. They did this by either adding talent or -- well, that's probably the only way it happened. Adding talent helps talent improve. Who knew?
Houston Rockets
Talent Before RFA: BAD
Players Before RFA: 5
Current Talent: GOOD
Current Players: 15
San Antonio Spurs
Talent Before RFA: POOR
Players Before RFA: 6
Current Talent: GREAT
Current Players: 15
New Orleans Pelicans
Talent Before RFA: BAD
Players Before RFA: 4
Current Talent: GOOD
Current Players: 15
Sacramento Kings
Talent Before RFA: POOR
Players Before RFA: 6
Current Talent: GREAT
Current Players: 15
All four teams assembled full rosters, which obviously helped them with talent. They all signed or re-signed talented players that helped them make the leap as well. It seems that Jokic and Gebhart are the real reason for the rise for the Spurs and Pelicans.
NICE LEAP
These teams jumped gained two rankings in talent over free agency.
Philadelphia 76ers
Talent Before RFA: POOR
Players Before RFA: 6
Current Talent: GOOD
Current Players: 10
Charlotte Bobcats
Talent Before RFA: POOR
Players Before RFA: 5
Current Talent: GOOD
Current Players: 10
Portland Trailblazers
Talent Before RFA: POOR
Players Before RFA: 6
Current Talent: GOOD
Current Players: 15
Denver Nuggets
Talent Before RFA: AVG
Players Before RFA: 6
Current Talent: GREAT
Current Players: 15
These teams seem mostly teams that were already talented, but gained talent from filling out their roster. Notable exceptions go to Nuggets and Sixers, who brought back key players Otto and Markelle to solidify their talent.
SLIGHT JUMP
These teams went up one talent ranking over the course of the offseason. Not many changes, but enough to improve slightly in the eyes of the game.
Boston Celtics
Talent Before RFA: AVG
Players Before RFA: 8
Current Talent: GOOD
Current Players: 9
Miami Heat
Talent Before RFA: POOR
Players Before RFA: 6
Current Talent: AVG
Current Players: 13
This was tied for the smallest category. The Celtics added their two big time free agents but didn't move the needle all that much. The Heat kept their RFA and added some older veterans which was the biggest reason for the bump.
STATIC
This was the largest category. These teams added players, but stayed the same according to the game. I actually find this to be the most fascinating category.
Orlando Magic
Talent Before RFA: GREAT
Players Before RFA: 10
Current Talent: GREAT
Current Players: 15
Utah Jazz
Talent Before RFA: BAD
Players Before RFA: 6
Current Talent: BAD
Current Players: 14
Cleveland Cavaliers
Talent Before RFA: AVG
Players Before RFA: 9
Current Talent: AVG
Current Players: 13
Dallas Mavericks
Talent Before RFA: POOR
Players Before RFA: 10
Current Talent: POOR
Current Players: 14
Vancouver Grizzlies
Talent Before RFA: BAD
Players Before RFA: 3
Current Talent: BAD
Current Players: 8
Toronto Raptors
Talent Before RFA: GOOD
Players Before RFA: 7
Current Talent: GOOD
Current Players: 15
Minnesota Timberwolves
Talent Before RFA: AVG
Players Before RFA: 13
Current Talent: AVG
Current Players: 15
Detroit Pistons
Talent Before RFA: GREAT
Players Before RFA: 10
Current Talent: GREAT
Current Players: 14
Pretty cut and dry, right? They added players but didn't change in talent. So why do I find this so fascinating? Because I know the players that some teams added. The Wolves added two blue potential players and one current. The Cavs brought back superstar Dennis Smith. The Grizzlies...well, never mind.
SLIGHT DIP
These teams went down one talent rank over the offseason.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Talent Before RFA: GOOD
Players Before RFA: 12
Current Talent: AVG
Current Players: 12
New York Knicks
Talent Before RFA: AVG
Players Before RFA: 9
Current Talent: POOR
Current Players: 16
Milwaukee Bucks
Talent Before RFA: GOOD
Players Before RFA: 13
Current Talent: AVG
Current Players: 15
Atlanta Hawks
Talent Before RFA: GREAT
Players Before RFA: 15
Current Talent: GOOD
Current Players: 15
I lied, this is the most fascinating category. Look at most of these teams. They added players -- and got worse! Sometimes it's easy to explain, like Gary Harris continuing his plunge into worst contract ever territory. But what happened in Milwaukee? Oh, wait, I remember.
STUMBLE
This category is for teams who lost two ranks of talent over the offseason. Whoops!
Chicago Bulls
Talent Before RFA: GREAT
Players Before RFA: 8
Current Talent: AVG
Current Players: 11
Phoenix Suns
Talent Before RFA: GOOD
Players Before RFA: 8
Current Talent: POOR
Current Players: 8
Indiana Pacers
Talent Before RFA: GOOD
Players Before RFA: 10
Current Talent: POOR
Current Players: 12
Golden State Warriors
Talent Before RFA: GOOD
Players Before RFA: 7
Current Talent: POOR
Current Players: 8
Los Angeles Clippers
Talent Before RFA: AVG
Players Before RFA: 9
Current Talent: BAD
Current Players: 9
Washington Wizards
Talent Before RFA: GOOD
Players Before RFA: 11
Current Talent: POOR
Current Players: 14
I think in most cases here, the reason for the stumble was the league catching up. You can tell not a ton of moves were made for most of these teams, and what was once good enough no longer was.
OFF A CLIFF
These two teams lost three or more rankings, which...woof.
Brooklyn Nets
Talent Before RFA: GREAT
Players Before RFA: 8
Current Talent: POOR
Current Players: 9
Los Angeles Lakers
Talent Before RFA: GOOD
Players Before RFA: 12
Current Talent: BAD
Current Players: 12
I don't even know what to say about these. Come on, guys, get yourself together!
***
What does all of this mean, exactly? Not really sure. I just thought it would be interesting, and it was to me. Maybe it will be to you as well! [1363 words]
Tangentially related, I've always been fascinated at the talent ratings in the game. As you know, I used the ratings to create my Chemistry and Talent reports, and may one day do so again once my free time isn't as completely swallowed up by increasing work loads and a tiny human. The talent system is very interesting but also not completely understood: it seems to take several different things into account, such as potential, league-wide talent, and end of bench players.
I was thinking about this earlier in the offseason, after the draft but before restricted free agency. I was milling about the index and found that my talent was average, which I thought was generous. I then wondered what it would take to get me to good talent, and then I started thinking about the league as a whole. How vastly does talent rating change in an offseason? It's likely that some teams only have a handful of players because of their players hitting RFA or UFA, and I wanted to see which teams improved and which got worse according to the game. So before restricted free agency, I wrote down each team's talent level and the amount of players they had on their roster. I then went into the game today, on the start of the season, to see how that talent level changed and how many players were added or removed. What I found was interesting: I expected most teams to either stay the same or improve. However, over a third of the teams got worse in talent rating. It could be the players they didn't sign in free agency, or the league talent catching up -- in any case, they plunged.
I have created categories to put each team in based on how many talent spots they rose or fell. To clarify, there are five rankings of talent: BAD, POOR, AVG, GOOD, and GREAT. So it was possible for a team to rise or fall 4, 3, 2, or 1 rankings, or stay the same. Below are the categories that I created, and the teams that fit into them. Because I'm in a good mood, we'll start with the positive ratings.
JETPACK
These teams gained 3 or 4 rankings of talent from before RFA to the start of the season. They did this by either adding talent or -- well, that's probably the only way it happened. Adding talent helps talent improve. Who knew?
Houston Rockets
Talent Before RFA: BAD
Players Before RFA: 5
Current Talent: GOOD
Current Players: 15
San Antonio Spurs
Talent Before RFA: POOR
Players Before RFA: 6
Current Talent: GREAT
Current Players: 15
New Orleans Pelicans
Talent Before RFA: BAD
Players Before RFA: 4
Current Talent: GOOD
Current Players: 15
Sacramento Kings
Talent Before RFA: POOR
Players Before RFA: 6
Current Talent: GREAT
Current Players: 15
All four teams assembled full rosters, which obviously helped them with talent. They all signed or re-signed talented players that helped them make the leap as well. It seems that Jokic and Gebhart are the real reason for the rise for the Spurs and Pelicans.
NICE LEAP
These teams jumped gained two rankings in talent over free agency.
Philadelphia 76ers
Talent Before RFA: POOR
Players Before RFA: 6
Current Talent: GOOD
Current Players: 10
Charlotte Bobcats
Talent Before RFA: POOR
Players Before RFA: 5
Current Talent: GOOD
Current Players: 10
Portland Trailblazers
Talent Before RFA: POOR
Players Before RFA: 6
Current Talent: GOOD
Current Players: 15
Denver Nuggets
Talent Before RFA: AVG
Players Before RFA: 6
Current Talent: GREAT
Current Players: 15
These teams seem mostly teams that were already talented, but gained talent from filling out their roster. Notable exceptions go to Nuggets and Sixers, who brought back key players Otto and Markelle to solidify their talent.
SLIGHT JUMP
These teams went up one talent ranking over the course of the offseason. Not many changes, but enough to improve slightly in the eyes of the game.
Boston Celtics
Talent Before RFA: AVG
Players Before RFA: 8
Current Talent: GOOD
Current Players: 9
Miami Heat
Talent Before RFA: POOR
Players Before RFA: 6
Current Talent: AVG
Current Players: 13
This was tied for the smallest category. The Celtics added their two big time free agents but didn't move the needle all that much. The Heat kept their RFA and added some older veterans which was the biggest reason for the bump.
STATIC
This was the largest category. These teams added players, but stayed the same according to the game. I actually find this to be the most fascinating category.
Orlando Magic
Talent Before RFA: GREAT
Players Before RFA: 10
Current Talent: GREAT
Current Players: 15
Utah Jazz
Talent Before RFA: BAD
Players Before RFA: 6
Current Talent: BAD
Current Players: 14
Cleveland Cavaliers
Talent Before RFA: AVG
Players Before RFA: 9
Current Talent: AVG
Current Players: 13
Dallas Mavericks
Talent Before RFA: POOR
Players Before RFA: 10
Current Talent: POOR
Current Players: 14
Vancouver Grizzlies
Talent Before RFA: BAD
Players Before RFA: 3
Current Talent: BAD
Current Players: 8
Toronto Raptors
Talent Before RFA: GOOD
Players Before RFA: 7
Current Talent: GOOD
Current Players: 15
Minnesota Timberwolves
Talent Before RFA: AVG
Players Before RFA: 13
Current Talent: AVG
Current Players: 15
Detroit Pistons
Talent Before RFA: GREAT
Players Before RFA: 10
Current Talent: GREAT
Current Players: 14
Pretty cut and dry, right? They added players but didn't change in talent. So why do I find this so fascinating? Because I know the players that some teams added. The Wolves added two blue potential players and one current. The Cavs brought back superstar Dennis Smith. The Grizzlies...well, never mind.
SLIGHT DIP
These teams went down one talent rank over the offseason.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Talent Before RFA: GOOD
Players Before RFA: 12
Current Talent: AVG
Current Players: 12
New York Knicks
Talent Before RFA: AVG
Players Before RFA: 9
Current Talent: POOR
Current Players: 16
Milwaukee Bucks
Talent Before RFA: GOOD
Players Before RFA: 13
Current Talent: AVG
Current Players: 15
Atlanta Hawks
Talent Before RFA: GREAT
Players Before RFA: 15
Current Talent: GOOD
Current Players: 15
I lied, this is the most fascinating category. Look at most of these teams. They added players -- and got worse! Sometimes it's easy to explain, like Gary Harris continuing his plunge into worst contract ever territory. But what happened in Milwaukee? Oh, wait, I remember.
STUMBLE
This category is for teams who lost two ranks of talent over the offseason. Whoops!
Chicago Bulls
Talent Before RFA: GREAT
Players Before RFA: 8
Current Talent: AVG
Current Players: 11
Phoenix Suns
Talent Before RFA: GOOD
Players Before RFA: 8
Current Talent: POOR
Current Players: 8
Indiana Pacers
Talent Before RFA: GOOD
Players Before RFA: 10
Current Talent: POOR
Current Players: 12
Golden State Warriors
Talent Before RFA: GOOD
Players Before RFA: 7
Current Talent: POOR
Current Players: 8
Los Angeles Clippers
Talent Before RFA: AVG
Players Before RFA: 9
Current Talent: BAD
Current Players: 9
Washington Wizards
Talent Before RFA: GOOD
Players Before RFA: 11
Current Talent: POOR
Current Players: 14
I think in most cases here, the reason for the stumble was the league catching up. You can tell not a ton of moves were made for most of these teams, and what was once good enough no longer was.
OFF A CLIFF
These two teams lost three or more rankings, which...woof.
Brooklyn Nets
Talent Before RFA: GREAT
Players Before RFA: 8
Current Talent: POOR
Current Players: 9
Los Angeles Lakers
Talent Before RFA: GOOD
Players Before RFA: 12
Current Talent: BAD
Current Players: 12
I don't even know what to say about these. Come on, guys, get yourself together!
***
What does all of this mean, exactly? Not really sure. I just thought it would be interesting, and it was to me. Maybe it will be to you as well! [1363 words]
7 POINTS TOTAL!