Should you MAX dat RFA?
Posted: Fri Mar 08, 2019 2:42 pm
As we contemplate our RFA bids there are a few questions we think about.
The Definitelys
Jerry West
Jerry West is a prolific player already. He is an elite two-way player, scoring almost 30 a game and qualifying for the All-defense second team. He deserved a max contract as a rookie. I think the most interesting this here is that his closest comparable is Isaiah Thomas. They actually are fairly similar. The obvious difference is that Jerry West is way taller and more athletic. Anyway, give this man a max.
Bryce Dejean-Jones
BDJ is an elite pure point guard. He racked up almost 10 assists per game. He'll average over 2 steals a game eventually. He has underperformed as a three point shooter so far but he'll get there. He's also going to be a really good rebounder. This guy will start putting up the triple-doubles once he's fully developed. He still has room to grow as a 2 point shooter. He's a super efficient scorer. He's very athletic. Okay, I'm gushing now. I'll stop. His closest comparable is Kyle Lowry, who was a max-worthy player at his peak.
The Probablys
Patrick Edmunds
Edmunds's closest comparable is Kyrie, which makes you want to say MAX but Eddy really hasn't shown anything yet due mostly to limited minutes. He's also not as athletic as Kyrie. But he is taller. He could probably play point, shooting guard, or small forward and hold his own although he looks mostly like a wing. Eddy probably still has a few years more of developing before he is really good so giving him the max means overpaying for sure in the short run. On the whole he is probably worth the max for a team looking to compete in a year or two.
Marvin Bagley III
Marvin's rookie contract years have been nothing to write home about, despite the fact that his ratings are starting to look like he should be good soon. Marv has showed steady but incremental improvement but his overall impact on games has been limited by the presence of Irvin Benjamin starting ahead of him. With Bags, though, you see that A inside scoring, A defensive rebounding, A post defense, with Bs in offensive rebounding and blocks and a hundo in strength and it makes you salivate a little. Makes you think this guy is going to be an All-star, makes you think MAX. His closest comparable is Al Jefferson, who started out with green potential but was a max-worthy player in his prime after some TC blessings.
The Maybes
Nassir Little
Little's best comparable is Doug Christie who was a purple player in his heyday. Like many of the players on this list, Little has never really been asked to play a leading role on a team so his impact has been limited. However, he looks like can be an effective two way player, shooting 3s, playing solid perimeter defense, and rebounding. He could even play point. Plus he's super athletic. Nassir probably gets a max offer and says yes, sir.
Glenn Irvine
Glenn's closest comparable is Grant Hill. That would be a great outcome for Glenn. The big problem with Glenn is that he is still raw. He projects to be a solid two way wing but he's still a long way off and he's shorter than what you would hope for given his still set. There are good reasons why this guy played with three different teams in four years. He is a project and it's not clear he's ever going to be a star.
The Probably Nots
Frank Jackson
Frank Jackson's three seasons have been remarkably steady, even though his attributes have grown considerable over that time. As someone very interested in Frank, I get the feeling 16 efficient points and solid perimeter D is all you are ever going to get from him. There is a lot to like about Frank, don't get me wrong. He's super long and quick for his length. He bullies other 2 guards no problem. He is still developing as a 3 point shooter. Maybe I'm wrong and he's capable of 20 a game if he is a first or second option but either way I don't think he'll ever be an All-star. Joe Johnson was a more gifted scorer but less athletic and worse defender but the overall level of performance is probably a good target for Frank.
Chad Marsh
Before I traded up in this draft, I took a good long look at Chad Marsh (and Long Anderson). He came into the league super super raw. He is still very raw. He will eventually be a great passer and ball handler but he's too slow to run point so that really just translates into a turnover a game fewer. He still has a D in defensive rebounding. Does it worry me that his closest comparable is a yellow yellow? Yes, yes it does. Maybe his next contract should be a max but probably not this one.
Nathaniel Anderson
Nathaniel projects as a decent stretch 4. He's not probably ever going to be terrific (like his father? cousin? uncle? Ryan Anderson) but he can be a good player on a good team. Charles Kuntz is his closest comparable and I think that is a pretty good one. Nathaniel projects to be a little better because of his rebounding and 3 point shooting but this guy probably needs to be the fourth or fifth best starter on a good team. You don't usually want to pay your fourth or fifth best starter a max unless you have a stud on a rookie contract or your team is just insanely stacked.
- How much do I think this guy should be paid?
- If I overpay this guy, will the incumbent team match or decline to match?
- If the incumbent team declines, am I okay taking on this guy on a bloated contract?
- Do I actually have a shot at any of these guys or am I just trying to make sure incumbent teams pay the "fair" price?
- If a player that will surely be matched accepts my offer, will I miss out on a guy that I actually have a shot at?
- What is my team's situation?
- How does the player project to develop?
- How has the player performed thus far in their career?
The Definitelys
Jerry West
Jerry West is a prolific player already. He is an elite two-way player, scoring almost 30 a game and qualifying for the All-defense second team. He deserved a max contract as a rookie. I think the most interesting this here is that his closest comparable is Isaiah Thomas. They actually are fairly similar. The obvious difference is that Jerry West is way taller and more athletic. Anyway, give this man a max.
Bryce Dejean-Jones
BDJ is an elite pure point guard. He racked up almost 10 assists per game. He'll average over 2 steals a game eventually. He has underperformed as a three point shooter so far but he'll get there. He's also going to be a really good rebounder. This guy will start putting up the triple-doubles once he's fully developed. He still has room to grow as a 2 point shooter. He's a super efficient scorer. He's very athletic. Okay, I'm gushing now. I'll stop. His closest comparable is Kyle Lowry, who was a max-worthy player at his peak.
The Probablys
Patrick Edmunds
Edmunds's closest comparable is Kyrie, which makes you want to say MAX but Eddy really hasn't shown anything yet due mostly to limited minutes. He's also not as athletic as Kyrie. But he is taller. He could probably play point, shooting guard, or small forward and hold his own although he looks mostly like a wing. Eddy probably still has a few years more of developing before he is really good so giving him the max means overpaying for sure in the short run. On the whole he is probably worth the max for a team looking to compete in a year or two.
Marvin Bagley III
Marvin's rookie contract years have been nothing to write home about, despite the fact that his ratings are starting to look like he should be good soon. Marv has showed steady but incremental improvement but his overall impact on games has been limited by the presence of Irvin Benjamin starting ahead of him. With Bags, though, you see that A inside scoring, A defensive rebounding, A post defense, with Bs in offensive rebounding and blocks and a hundo in strength and it makes you salivate a little. Makes you think this guy is going to be an All-star, makes you think MAX. His closest comparable is Al Jefferson, who started out with green potential but was a max-worthy player in his prime after some TC blessings.
The Maybes
Nassir Little
Little's best comparable is Doug Christie who was a purple player in his heyday. Like many of the players on this list, Little has never really been asked to play a leading role on a team so his impact has been limited. However, he looks like can be an effective two way player, shooting 3s, playing solid perimeter defense, and rebounding. He could even play point. Plus he's super athletic. Nassir probably gets a max offer and says yes, sir.
Glenn Irvine
Glenn's closest comparable is Grant Hill. That would be a great outcome for Glenn. The big problem with Glenn is that he is still raw. He projects to be a solid two way wing but he's still a long way off and he's shorter than what you would hope for given his still set. There are good reasons why this guy played with three different teams in four years. He is a project and it's not clear he's ever going to be a star.
The Probably Nots
Frank Jackson
Frank Jackson's three seasons have been remarkably steady, even though his attributes have grown considerable over that time. As someone very interested in Frank, I get the feeling 16 efficient points and solid perimeter D is all you are ever going to get from him. There is a lot to like about Frank, don't get me wrong. He's super long and quick for his length. He bullies other 2 guards no problem. He is still developing as a 3 point shooter. Maybe I'm wrong and he's capable of 20 a game if he is a first or second option but either way I don't think he'll ever be an All-star. Joe Johnson was a more gifted scorer but less athletic and worse defender but the overall level of performance is probably a good target for Frank.
Chad Marsh
Before I traded up in this draft, I took a good long look at Chad Marsh (and Long Anderson). He came into the league super super raw. He is still very raw. He will eventually be a great passer and ball handler but he's too slow to run point so that really just translates into a turnover a game fewer. He still has a D in defensive rebounding. Does it worry me that his closest comparable is a yellow yellow? Yes, yes it does. Maybe his next contract should be a max but probably not this one.
Nathaniel Anderson
Nathaniel projects as a decent stretch 4. He's not probably ever going to be terrific (like his father? cousin? uncle? Ryan Anderson) but he can be a good player on a good team. Charles Kuntz is his closest comparable and I think that is a pretty good one. Nathaniel projects to be a little better because of his rebounding and 3 point shooting but this guy probably needs to be the fourth or fifth best starter on a good team. You don't usually want to pay your fourth or fifth best starter a max unless you have a stud on a rookie contract or your team is just insanely stacked.
