The $50 Million Man
Posted: Fri Feb 15, 2019 10:36 am
Anthony Davis is arguably the greatest player in PBSL history. At the conclusion of his 14th season in the league, he collected is eighth MVP and ninth defensive player of the year award. He was named All-league first team for the eleventh time (to go with two second teams as well) and all-defense first team for the 13th time. He led the league in scoring for the tenth time and rebounds for the fifth time. He’ll add all of these accolades to an increasingly crowded trophy room that also includes 14 All-star teams, 5 All-star game MVPs, a playoff MVP, a championship, and three times leading the league in blocks. He is already second in league history in points, 11th in rebounds, sixth in blocks, and second in double-doubles. In short, this guy is incredible.
Anthony Davis also just turned 33, which begs the question: How long can this guy keep this up? Based on his current contract, the Pistons are betting on him being elite-ish for four more seasons. He is set to make $52 million in the final of year of the contract, the year in which he will turn 37. This year, a year in which he was exceptionally good, averaging 32 points, 12.6 rebounds, and 3 blocks a game, Anthony Davis made about $40 million, or about 36% of the current salary cap. Every team in the league would pay that price for that kind of production every year, no matter what. His PER of 30 may be down from his high of 48 but it is still awesome. But what does a price tag of $50 million look like four seasons from down. Assuming cap increases of 2% each year, a salary of $50 million will account for 43% of the salary cap. GMs would gladly pay that for a PER of 48, probably 30 as well.
But what kind of player will Anthony Davis be when he is the $50 million man? To investigate this question I took all players that were very good at their peak (i.e. had total attribute ratings summing to greater than 1000. I also did the same thing with those that peaked over 1100 and the results are essentially the same). I then took the average decrease in ratings by age. I also broke these average down by changes to athletic and skill ratings. Here is what their average change by age looked like.
I then just subtracted out the averages for each year from AD’s athletic and skill totals. As you can see, if Anthony Davis declines like an average great player (please don’t teach him your secrets 78!), he will still be very good at the age of 37. He won’t be winning any MVPs but he still projects to have a four digit attribute total.
Finally, I wanted to see what kind of production we can expect from a player with similar attributes. To do this I started with my database of every player from every year. I then filtered it down to only players that were listed as power forwards or centers, had skill ratings between 775 and 795, and athletic ratings between 210 and 230. Only one player in one season ever fit these criteria, Al Horford in 2018 when he was 33. That year he averaged about 19 points, 11 rebounds, and 2 blocks a game. Not to mention he had a PER of 23.2 and posted a VA of 520 and a17.3 EWA. He was an All-star and second team All-league. Is that sort of player you’d play 43% of your cap for? That isn’t the ideal salary for a player of that caliber but it also isn’t outlandish. With decent players around him on fair contracts, that could still be a winning team.
So, bad news guys, Anthony Davis will probably still be quite good when his making $50 million a year at age 37. That is just gross.
Anthony Davis also just turned 33, which begs the question: How long can this guy keep this up? Based on his current contract, the Pistons are betting on him being elite-ish for four more seasons. He is set to make $52 million in the final of year of the contract, the year in which he will turn 37. This year, a year in which he was exceptionally good, averaging 32 points, 12.6 rebounds, and 3 blocks a game, Anthony Davis made about $40 million, or about 36% of the current salary cap. Every team in the league would pay that price for that kind of production every year, no matter what. His PER of 30 may be down from his high of 48 but it is still awesome. But what does a price tag of $50 million look like four seasons from down. Assuming cap increases of 2% each year, a salary of $50 million will account for 43% of the salary cap. GMs would gladly pay that for a PER of 48, probably 30 as well.
But what kind of player will Anthony Davis be when he is the $50 million man? To investigate this question I took all players that were very good at their peak (i.e. had total attribute ratings summing to greater than 1000. I also did the same thing with those that peaked over 1100 and the results are essentially the same). I then took the average decrease in ratings by age. I also broke these average down by changes to athletic and skill ratings. Here is what their average change by age looked like.
I then just subtracted out the averages for each year from AD’s athletic and skill totals. As you can see, if Anthony Davis declines like an average great player (please don’t teach him your secrets 78!), he will still be very good at the age of 37. He won’t be winning any MVPs but he still projects to have a four digit attribute total.
Finally, I wanted to see what kind of production we can expect from a player with similar attributes. To do this I started with my database of every player from every year. I then filtered it down to only players that were listed as power forwards or centers, had skill ratings between 775 and 795, and athletic ratings between 210 and 230. Only one player in one season ever fit these criteria, Al Horford in 2018 when he was 33. That year he averaged about 19 points, 11 rebounds, and 2 blocks a game. Not to mention he had a PER of 23.2 and posted a VA of 520 and a17.3 EWA. He was an All-star and second team All-league. Is that sort of player you’d play 43% of your cap for? That isn’t the ideal salary for a player of that caliber but it also isn’t outlandish. With decent players around him on fair contracts, that could still be a winning team.
So, bad news guys, Anthony Davis will probably still be quite good when his making $50 million a year at age 37. That is just gross.