Alright, now we have some pretty good data - and I have some more time to dedicate to #breakingitdown.
Method:
Made a few changes for this year. Last year I mainly used the 'rank' function to score teams, so you'd get more points in the rankings if you had the best win% or lowest home %, etc. But that probably wasn't the most significant way to use the data. With my rudimentary statistics skills, and expert-level googling, I've decided to use standard deviations this year to measure 'how far above or below the average is a particular metric' which I think yields results that make more sense to my eyes. Before there was no way to capture if, say, one team's point differential was +19.0 and only two other teams were in double digits...not that that applies here, necessarily.
Who's killing it?:
A huge winning percentage and differential are retarded somewhat by a low strength of schedule and 3 more home than road games to make the race at the top not a complete runaway for the Nuggets. The next sim will be a little more telling with 4/7 games on the road and 4/7 games against .500+ opponents. We may not know how for real a #1 this team is until the end of January with home and homes against the 76ers and tilts against the Knicks, Pistons, and Raptors.
Surprise teams?:
The 15-11 Pistons are punching above the weight of their record in these rankings ahead of 6 teams with better win percentages. They do this primarily on the backs of the 6th highest point differential in the league. Only 3 of their 11 losses are by double digits, while 12 of their 15 wins were by 10 points or more. They're simply overpowering other teams they're beating. Will be interesting to see if this trend continues.
The 14-9 Suns are a rankings surprise for the opposite reason. Despite, their winning record, the rankings have them at the 20 spot behind 8 other teams with worse records. This is due to a low point differential, the 5th easiest schedule, and playing 61% of their games in Phoenix.
Also, don't write off the 10-13 Miami Heat from your playoff brackets quite yet, they've played the second toughest schedule, and only 10 home games. They certainly have potential to shoot up these rankings, though they've only won 31% of their games against opponents with a winning record.
Closing:
If anyone has any questions, suggestions on how to make these rankings more accurate (besides moving the 76ers up to 1st,
@ballsohard) let me know. Would love the feedback!
