Mortgaging the Future
Posted: Sat Nov 17, 2018 9:13 pm
Today I’m going to talk about something that we all do but that we don’t really like to talk about, trading our first round draft picks. When we trade a first round draft pick we are usually betting on ourselves. We are saying, “I am building such a good team that I am confident that my team will win so many games that this pick will not be worth very much.” There are other cases, of course, where we trade a pick despite knowing that that our team will not be very good. In these cases we might be playing the long game, trying to acquire a big time player that will lead to victories in the future. As I watched some first rounders fly around the league recently, I was curious to see how much this happens and who does it most often. So I did what I always do. I wrote some code to download all of the transaction data in league history and cleaned it up for analysis. The analysis this time is so simple it is hardly analysis at all but I think that people will find it interesting.
Shocking thing from this graph: the Wizards trade their pick approximately every year. Not shocking things from this graph: the Bucks have traded their pick the second most times, Negotiatin’ Nick isn’t far behind Dealin’ Doug when it comes to trading picks (you have to add the Pelicans and Hornets), the Hawks have not traded their picks very much (I mean, who wants a pick that is virtually guaranteed to be in the high 20’s every single year). Overall I thought it was just fun to see who trades their first round picks. But then I wondered who actually wins their gambles? Who trades away their picks and then can’t find a way to win? I kind of guessed the answer to the second question…
Sad face. I am not a very good GM. This is not a surprise to anyone but it never feels good to see evidence this clear. Also not a surprise to anyone, the Hawks have the highest win percentage of any team in years when they have traded away their own draft pick. Good news for those frequent flyers we discussed earlier, they tend to do well when they trade away their picks.
So the next time you’re thinking about trading away a first, remember this article and consider the odds when betting on yourself.
Shocking thing from this graph: the Wizards trade their pick approximately every year. Not shocking things from this graph: the Bucks have traded their pick the second most times, Negotiatin’ Nick isn’t far behind Dealin’ Doug when it comes to trading picks (you have to add the Pelicans and Hornets), the Hawks have not traded their picks very much (I mean, who wants a pick that is virtually guaranteed to be in the high 20’s every single year). Overall I thought it was just fun to see who trades their first round picks. But then I wondered who actually wins their gambles? Who trades away their picks and then can’t find a way to win? I kind of guessed the answer to the second question…
Sad face. I am not a very good GM. This is not a surprise to anyone but it never feels good to see evidence this clear. Also not a surprise to anyone, the Hawks have the highest win percentage of any team in years when they have traded away their own draft pick. Good news for those frequent flyers we discussed earlier, they tend to do well when they trade away their picks.
So the next time you’re thinking about trading away a first, remember this article and consider the odds when betting on yourself.