PG May Actually Save the Pelicans
Posted: Thu Oct 11, 2018 8:35 pm
The recent trade between the Kings and Pelicans shook the PBSL world. GMs and pundits alike were outraged by what appeared to be an immensely lopsided deal in favor of the Kings. Bringing in Buddy Hield and a future pick may have been enough of a haul to cancel the Kings planned rebuild. A core of Haynes, Mitchell, and Hield is excellent, not excellent enough to forget Duren, but excellent nonetheless. This article is not meant to evaluate the fairness of the trade but rather predict its impact on the Pelicans’ season.
First let’s talk about what the Pelicans lost. In Buddy Hield, they lost a moderately efficient 19 points, 4.2 rebounds, 1.5 steals, and 2.7 assists per game. I say moderately efficient because his points per shot are down from 1.26 to 1.19 this year. Buddy looks great on paper but he jacks up too many jump shots (187 out of this 495 field goals or 39%) and only hits 37% of those dreaded mid range shots. He also has one of the worst defensive efficiency ratings on the team. The whole team struggles with defense though, I think this in large part because of a reason we’ll discuss later. The skill is there. There is no doubt about that.
Now let’s talk about what they gained. First, they gained Kyrie. Looking only at this year and ignoring the future, Kyrie for Buddy straight up would have been an upgrade for the Pelicans. Kyrie is putting up 19.6 points, 5.7 rebounds, 4.6 assists, and 1.4 steals a game. He has a higher true shooting percentage (.557 compared to .531) and the same points per shot at 1.19. Kyrie has aged by he is still putting up a PER of 18.9 compared to Buddy’s 14.8. It is tough to compare them too directly on defense because Kyrie plays on a team that excels on defense but Kyrie looks like he can still hold his own on defense.
Let’s be frank about something, Paul George is no longer a good offensive player. Yes, he is scoring 15 points a game and yes, he will likely be an upgrade over the offense challenged Julius Randle but Paul George can barely get off the ground at the age of 33 and it is killing his offense. PG has always made a living off of jump shots and 3 pointers but he used to, you know, make those shots. He’s only putting up a measly 1.04 points per shot this year. Yikes. He is jacking up 12 outside shots a game and only 2.5 inside shots. His field goal percentage is down to .419. He is still solid on defense though and pulling down 6.5 boards a game and posting 1.3 steals a game. He chips in 3.2 assists a game as well. So over all, Paul George is a good add for the Pelicans (just don’t let him shoot the ball, Nick!).
This is the point in the article where you say, “Wait, doesn’t the title of the article say the Paull George is going to save the Pelicans? And now you’re saying he’s not even that good anymore?” You are correct. The reason why PG25 is going to save the Pellies actually has very little to do with him and everything to do with Damion McNary. McNary has been, well, bad this year. The main reason for this has been his offense. His true shooting percentage is an abysmal .479 this year. This is a guy that posted a .547 last year and peaked at .581 a couple of years ago. The reason for this is quite simple. McNary is barfing up jump shots like he’s Paul George. He is shooting 8.5 jump shots a game and making 34% of those and only shooting 6.5 inside shots a game while making 62% of those. To provide some perspective, McNary shot 10.5 inside shots, and 5.2 jump shots a game last season. Sometimes players change their shot mix and it isn’t clear why and in many cases it is outside our control as human GMs and coaches but in this case it seems clear why and it is mostly in Nick’s control.
You see, the Pelicans didn’t really have a good SF on their roster this year but they had three good big men so Nick, being a crafty veteran of a coach, said, “McNary is a super talented player with good athleticism for a big man, I’ll slide him out to the wing.” Indeed McNary has 50 quickness, which ain’t bad for a 6’8” 245 pound dude. However, I ran the numbers so see what changing a player’s position does to their shot selection. This is a multivariable regression with player fixed effects. This means that the estimates are on average, holding all else equal, for the same player. I.e. what would happen if we only changed one thing on a player at a time.
This picture says a lot of things but the main thing is highlighted in yellow. This represents the change in jump shot to inside shot ratio associated with switching a player from power forward to small forward. So moving from power forward to small forward increases that players jump shot to inside shot ratio by about 0.6. Let’s use an example to illustrate what this number means. Say I have a power forward that shoots 10 inside shots and 5 jump shots a game (asking for a friend… named Damion). If I switch that player to SF, holding all else equal I can expect that player to now shoot about 8 jump shots and 7 inside shots a game. Not so coincidentally but still quite amazingly, that is almost exactly the shift Damion McNary has gone through this year (10.5 and 5.2 to 6.5 and 8.5).
So the way PG is going to save the Pelicans is by bringing D-Mac back. With George starting at small forward, McNary can get back to his natural position at power forward (I haven’t seen the depth chart but I’m guessing he’s already playing some minutes there but still logging a lot at SF). Assuming Damion reverts to his old 10 and 5 inside and out ways (which should also increase his free throws), his points per game should jump from 16.3 to almost 20. He’ll probably still shoot more jump shots than before because he improved his jumper this year (this has been a fairly steady trend for him over his career). 3+ points per game may not seem like a lot but that will also mean fewer missed shots that the other team rebounds. Don’t forget the defensive impact as well. McNasty has a 97 post defense rating and a 93 in blocks (note that his blocks are down almost a full block per game this season) and a 31 perimeter defense rating. Planting McNary in the post on defense will probably have a huge impact on this team’s defense.
So there you have it. I could be totally wrong but it seems like this trade should spur a position change for McNary, which should turn his season around and hopefully get him back to All-Star form, which the Pelicans desperately need if they are going to make the playoffs.
First let’s talk about what the Pelicans lost. In Buddy Hield, they lost a moderately efficient 19 points, 4.2 rebounds, 1.5 steals, and 2.7 assists per game. I say moderately efficient because his points per shot are down from 1.26 to 1.19 this year. Buddy looks great on paper but he jacks up too many jump shots (187 out of this 495 field goals or 39%) and only hits 37% of those dreaded mid range shots. He also has one of the worst defensive efficiency ratings on the team. The whole team struggles with defense though, I think this in large part because of a reason we’ll discuss later. The skill is there. There is no doubt about that.
Now let’s talk about what they gained. First, they gained Kyrie. Looking only at this year and ignoring the future, Kyrie for Buddy straight up would have been an upgrade for the Pelicans. Kyrie is putting up 19.6 points, 5.7 rebounds, 4.6 assists, and 1.4 steals a game. He has a higher true shooting percentage (.557 compared to .531) and the same points per shot at 1.19. Kyrie has aged by he is still putting up a PER of 18.9 compared to Buddy’s 14.8. It is tough to compare them too directly on defense because Kyrie plays on a team that excels on defense but Kyrie looks like he can still hold his own on defense.
Let’s be frank about something, Paul George is no longer a good offensive player. Yes, he is scoring 15 points a game and yes, he will likely be an upgrade over the offense challenged Julius Randle but Paul George can barely get off the ground at the age of 33 and it is killing his offense. PG has always made a living off of jump shots and 3 pointers but he used to, you know, make those shots. He’s only putting up a measly 1.04 points per shot this year. Yikes. He is jacking up 12 outside shots a game and only 2.5 inside shots. His field goal percentage is down to .419. He is still solid on defense though and pulling down 6.5 boards a game and posting 1.3 steals a game. He chips in 3.2 assists a game as well. So over all, Paul George is a good add for the Pelicans (just don’t let him shoot the ball, Nick!).
This is the point in the article where you say, “Wait, doesn’t the title of the article say the Paull George is going to save the Pelicans? And now you’re saying he’s not even that good anymore?” You are correct. The reason why PG25 is going to save the Pellies actually has very little to do with him and everything to do with Damion McNary. McNary has been, well, bad this year. The main reason for this has been his offense. His true shooting percentage is an abysmal .479 this year. This is a guy that posted a .547 last year and peaked at .581 a couple of years ago. The reason for this is quite simple. McNary is barfing up jump shots like he’s Paul George. He is shooting 8.5 jump shots a game and making 34% of those and only shooting 6.5 inside shots a game while making 62% of those. To provide some perspective, McNary shot 10.5 inside shots, and 5.2 jump shots a game last season. Sometimes players change their shot mix and it isn’t clear why and in many cases it is outside our control as human GMs and coaches but in this case it seems clear why and it is mostly in Nick’s control.
You see, the Pelicans didn’t really have a good SF on their roster this year but they had three good big men so Nick, being a crafty veteran of a coach, said, “McNary is a super talented player with good athleticism for a big man, I’ll slide him out to the wing.” Indeed McNary has 50 quickness, which ain’t bad for a 6’8” 245 pound dude. However, I ran the numbers so see what changing a player’s position does to their shot selection. This is a multivariable regression with player fixed effects. This means that the estimates are on average, holding all else equal, for the same player. I.e. what would happen if we only changed one thing on a player at a time.
- jps_ins.PNG (28.37 KiB) Viewed 1030 times
So the way PG is going to save the Pelicans is by bringing D-Mac back. With George starting at small forward, McNary can get back to his natural position at power forward (I haven’t seen the depth chart but I’m guessing he’s already playing some minutes there but still logging a lot at SF). Assuming Damion reverts to his old 10 and 5 inside and out ways (which should also increase his free throws), his points per game should jump from 16.3 to almost 20. He’ll probably still shoot more jump shots than before because he improved his jumper this year (this has been a fairly steady trend for him over his career). 3+ points per game may not seem like a lot but that will also mean fewer missed shots that the other team rebounds. Don’t forget the defensive impact as well. McNasty has a 97 post defense rating and a 93 in blocks (note that his blocks are down almost a full block per game this season) and a 31 perimeter defense rating. Planting McNary in the post on defense will probably have a huge impact on this team’s defense.
So there you have it. I could be totally wrong but it seems like this trade should spur a position change for McNary, which should turn his season around and hopefully get him back to All-Star form, which the Pelicans desperately need if they are going to make the playoffs.