#SLOE: People's Basketball Sim League

Wanted to wait until after Sim 2 to have some good data.


Your first question is probably: alright, so what exactly am I looking at?

So, I've taken everyone's schedule, copied it into a spreadsheet, and figured out how to reasonably format it. Next, I've inputted W's and L's from each game through the first two sims (and will continue to do so throughout the season). Then, I've created the following metrics which I think are important to understand. And lastly, I've weighted each column to create a 'Raw Power Score' which is a combination of how good a team has done, and how good it's likely to do based on the various metrics. Now, the first thing I might hear is 'so and so team is ranked above so and so team, but they just LOST to them' and to that I'd say, 'Tani, listen. Matchups are a thing, and there are no perfect rankings, but I'd like to think this comes reasonably close.' Essentially, record doesn't tell the whole story, and I'm trying to tell MORE of that story. There are things like trades, missed dcs, or things like this that could make these numbers funky, so take them with a grain of salt.

Win% - Team's current Win %
Diff - Team's current point differential
Opp Win % - This is the basic Strength of Schedule. It's the winning percentage of all the teams you've played thus far. A higher number is 'better' as it means you've played a harder schedule, so your record could theoretically be even better if you played an average schedule.
ROS SOS - The Win % of the rest of your opponents for the remainder of the season.
Difference - This is the difference between the previous two metrics, a positive number means your schedule will be easier than it has been, a negative number means it'll be tougher.
Remaining Home % - Percentage of your remaining games you'll play at home.
Away Opp Win % - The Strength of Schedule of your away games
Home Opp Win % - The Strength of Schedule of you home games
Win% vs. .500+ - Your winning percentage in games vs. teams .500 or better
Games vs. .500+ - How many games you've played vs. teams .500 or better
Raw Power Score - Proprietary score based off the weighting of the above categories (including current record, which is weighted the heaviest)

Alright, so what can we infer from this after Sim 2?
I think we can infer a few things:
1. Man is there parity here. The top 13 teams are within 2x of the winner, which is really really close with these numbers. The records tell this story as well. No winless or undefeated teams.
2. The Pacers are probably worse than their record. One of the things I look for when analyzing these numbers are winning teams toward the bottom, or sub-.500 teams toward the top. The Pacers are probably over-performing their true talent a bit. Look for them to course correct (or this can be the first paragraph of Pauly's GMOY nom).
3. The Pelicans and Cavs are probably better than their records - they've played a whopping 12 of 16 and 12 of 15 games against winning teams, respectively.
4. The race for the #1 lotto slot is ON, and it'll be a nailbiter. As of right now, there's no dominatingly bad team.

Would love feedback, and up for any suggestions on additional metrics to track. If I can reasonably figure out how to it, I'm game! Will keep this updated throughout the season, so let's see how teams move around!

After Sim 3!


Notable Risers:
1. 76ers - We all knew they would rise after a rough first sim without a DC set, but they've shot up faster than a 12yo's weenie watching a Stormy Daniels interview with his parents. Fast, and quietly. With the best point differential over the last two sims, I wouldn't be surprised if they kept streaking.
2. Knicks - These guys had a great sim to take the top spot. 7-1 against a schedule that had them move from an opp w% of 43% to 52%. That's a tough schedule and they played great.
3. Nuggets - Any team with an undefeated sim is going to move up fast in any rankings, but the Nuggets didn't play a tough schedule which dropped their SOS (easiest overall) and hurt them overall in the rankings keeping them (and any WC team) out of the top 5.

Notable Fallers:
1. Bulls - These guys played a mediocre sim against a mediocre schedule. Resulted in them dropping 5 spots in these rankings.
2. Warriors - Maybe they've gotten this tanking thing down? They dropped from 18 to 27 in the rankings after a 1-6 sim. They've played the second easiest schedule, and yet have gone 6-18 on the season. They'll need some lotto luck to jumpstart this rebuild.
3. Jazz - 4-3 is not a bad sim, but when you're in the top spot, it's enough to knock you all the way down to 7th. They do have the easiest schedule remaining in the league, so look for them to shoot up after banking a few wins against easier competition.

I just wanted to say thanks for doing these. I always love reading them and they're always interesting!

Notable Risers:
1. How about them Indiana Pacers? A 6-3 sim with wins against the Bulls, Raptors, and Knicks rocketed them from 18th to 10th for the largest move upwards this sim.
2. Sure, the 76ers only went up one spot. But that was the only spot they had to go. Any time a team takes over #1, I think you gotta call it out.

Check out that Consistency!
1. The Celtics have been in the 3rd spot each of the first three rankings. That's remarkable consistency over a little more than a third of a season. Honorable mention to the Timberwolves who have occupied the 8th or 9th spot in each iteration.

Ruh-Roh
1. How about the whole Western Conference? The West is so bad, that not only do they occupy 10 of the bottom 13 spots, but their inability to win games is driving down the strength of schedule for the handful of teams that are actually good out West which is hurting them in these rankings. Come on, my WC brethren, let's go.

Notes:
1. Pacers just keep their ascent a-going. A 6-1 sim with wins over the Knicks, Wiz, and Raptors (twice) has them up at the #4 spot, and for a team that was 9-7 at one point, they're now 25-14 and making waves out East.
2. The Celtics are not spending this kind of money to be 8th in anything. Seems like that team is stuck in neutral when it comes to these rankings - which are obviously above reproach and definitive.
3. The tank race is ON. Out of the chaos and parity that has been the musical chairs game at the top of these rankings, there's a little more clarity there with a few teams racing toward the top. On the other side of the rankings, the bad teams are getting WORSE. The tank race is onnnnnnnnn.

Don't have enough bandwidth for commentary. But wanted to get this up for y'all:

I've not changed any of my formulas for consistency's sake. But I'm going to start looking for refinements for next year. Initial thoughts are:
Weigh differential a little higher.
Reduce weight on ROS SOS a bit
Weigh home/road a little higher.

Thoughts?

In the penultimate edition of these rankings, I'd like to highlight a few things:
1. Keeping up with this has been a chore, but really rewarding. I'd like to keep doing this next year.
2. Way more teams are above .500 than below which result in things like the Cavs facing 55 .500+ teams in their 78 games which seems pretty crazy.
3. Gotta give props to the Bucks, they've been on top almost the entire 2nd half of the season.
4. Things are starting to get a little wonky due to the number of games left. I'm going to re-do the methodology in the off-season to hopefully avoid some of the wonkiness (no way the Bulls are ranked correctly even if the rest of their schedule is dastardly because it's only a few more games).

I already have some ideas of how to make this better, and I'm excited for next season!

Point Czar awards you 10(5+5 for extensive SoS and for the continuous follow-ups throughout the season) points! 1329 words

Great stuff Ryan and thanks, I know the league loves this type of thing that's updated like you did. Those 10 are well deserved!