Ask The Lazy Statistician: Is the Eastern Conference really that much stronger than the West?
Posted: Thu Oct 04, 2018 2:05 pm
Ask The Lazy Statistician: Is the Eastern Conference really that much stronger than the West?
Yes.
And maybe this article should be called "Don't ask the Lazy Statistician" because everyone knows this already. Still, the East holds a 27-13 record over the West following the 1st sim of 2018, and after noticing that, I was interested in digging deeper. Not that much deeper, mind you. I don't want to waste my time getting into p-values and distributions and all that garbage, and I only kind of know how, maybe, so I'll spare you the poindexter gobbledygook and layman it out for you like a real American.
For this study, I went back to 2015. That's the first season we had 15 teams per conference, so it made it easy to tabulate the wins and losses, knowing that there would be exactly 450 inter-conference games each season. It also wasn't that long ago, which made the data compiling aspect of this article better than it could've been had I been more thorough.
Since 2015, when we switched to 6 divisions, the East has won 1924 games out of 3640. That's just a tick under a 53% win percentage, which doesn't seem too out of sorts. But if we look at each season individually, the West hasn't outwon the East since 2016, when it did so rather handily. Don't believe me? Look at this bitchin' chart.
SO WHAT THE FRYE HAPPENED?
2017 is the year when everything flipped, and the East hasn't looked back. Here are some things that were going on around that time that may have contributed:
1. The Expansion Bobcats
The Bobcats were thrust into the Eastern Division like they were Brett Kavanaugh's drunken weenis at a high school party. In 2015, they went 7-75. Contrast that to last season where the final year of make_it_rain's Thunder went 6-76, and there's one reason for that swing. To Chad's credit, it only took him to his third season (you guessed it, 2017) as the Bobcats GM to turn them into a winning team. After the East took over dominance of the win-column, the Bobcats' tax woes put them in the eterna-tank, but they join the Grizzlies, who have been there longer, to balance the win-loss columns out and scratch one area where the West could've gained some ground.
2. AD
Wombataholic joined the league to take over the Pistons in 2016. It was the first time that the Pistons had an active manager since I joined PBSL, and with the days of RunningBack15 and xbhitterx leaving the Pistons in shambles mirroring their home city. However, when the best player in the league is on a team with an active GM, wins are bound to ensue, and ensue they have! While the Pistons won 48 games in 2016, leaving the West's dominance that year in tact, in 2017, the Pistons won 64 games and have averaged about 58 wins per season in the years that the East was dominant. The Pistons also haven't had generally stacked teams. They've always had at least a gap or two in their starting lineups, and they rarely dip into the tax, which frees other teams to sign players that Detroit could've otherwise stocked up on to go for the record.
3. <expletive deleted>' Wig
The Hawks haven't missed the playoffs in 16 seasons. They haven't lost under 50 games in 16 seasons. And the guy only gets paid $649,630! I make $3,157,451 as GM of the Bulls. So who's the real winner? (Hint: Me). The computer also has never voted Wig GMOY despite crazy, record setting seasons. Why? The computer sees all, Wig, and it knows what you've been up to with your admin privileges!
4. More so...<expletive deleted>' Scott
You know what happened in 2016? The 76ers did not make the playoffs. That's the last time that happened. They've also won at least 50 games every season from 2017 on. And because people trade him lotto picks and blue chip players for next to nothing, there's no end in sight to this. The Bulls organization may pay me twice as much as the 76ers pay good ol' balls, but something inside me is telling me that I should move to Philadelphia and become a trash collector since people will pay top dollar for Scott's garbage. If that fails, I can also become a garbage picking, field goal kicking Philadelphia Phenomenon.
5. Inactive owners
We look a lot more active now, but the xbhitterx Pistons were probably the last time an Eastern team was neglected. Sure, the Knicks had stewards last year, but Logan left the team in pretty good shape, and we got a replacement GM in quick. Meanwhile, the Clippers, Thunder, Warriors, and to some extent, the Lakers have been on autopilot for years without anyone really stepping in to steward them before the franchises entered some really ugly configurations. The Lakers and Mavs were the last to be stewarded, and both of those teams are in much better shape than the Warriors, Clippers, or Thunder. It seems that when a GM definitively quits, stewards keep the league afloat and balanced. When a GM ghosts, it takes a few seasons of a franchise being dragged through the mud before anything is done about it. Since 2016, all of the teams dragging through the mud have been out West.
Overall, I think that the inactive owners on 3 teams probably had the most to do with things. For every Scott and Wig in the East, there's someone in the West who hasn't missed the playoffs. Garrett's taken the Suns there every year since 2016 with the power of Kevin Love (though with less overall wins than the Pistons), and Raby, Tani, and Ryan have been pretty reliable postseason mainstays--each only missing one year when the East was posting better records. Of course, with 3 teams inactive and one facing tax burdens (two if you count the Spurs brief stint with delinquency that forced them into their current long rebuild), there's less incentive to truly rebuild and rebuilds can come along much faster.
So what do we do about it? Nothing major. Just try to keep the community as a whole vibrant and full of participation, and win-loss records should level out eventually, so shout out to all the new dudes. Hope you stick around.
Yes.
And maybe this article should be called "Don't ask the Lazy Statistician" because everyone knows this already. Still, the East holds a 27-13 record over the West following the 1st sim of 2018, and after noticing that, I was interested in digging deeper. Not that much deeper, mind you. I don't want to waste my time getting into p-values and distributions and all that garbage, and I only kind of know how, maybe, so I'll spare you the poindexter gobbledygook and layman it out for you like a real American.
For this study, I went back to 2015. That's the first season we had 15 teams per conference, so it made it easy to tabulate the wins and losses, knowing that there would be exactly 450 inter-conference games each season. It also wasn't that long ago, which made the data compiling aspect of this article better than it could've been had I been more thorough.
Since 2015, when we switched to 6 divisions, the East has won 1924 games out of 3640. That's just a tick under a 53% win percentage, which doesn't seem too out of sorts. But if we look at each season individually, the West hasn't outwon the East since 2016, when it did so rather handily. Don't believe me? Look at this bitchin' chart.
| YEAR | EAST WINS | WEST WINS |
| 2022 | 248 | 202 |
| 2021 | 260 | 190 |
| 2020 | 240 | 210 |
| 2019 | 255 | 195 |
| 2018 | 266 | 184 |
| 2017 | 231 | 219 |
| 2016 | 192 | 258 |
| 2015 | 205 | 245 |
SO WHAT THE FRYE HAPPENED?
2017 is the year when everything flipped, and the East hasn't looked back. Here are some things that were going on around that time that may have contributed:
1. The Expansion Bobcats
The Bobcats were thrust into the Eastern Division like they were Brett Kavanaugh's drunken weenis at a high school party. In 2015, they went 7-75. Contrast that to last season where the final year of make_it_rain's Thunder went 6-76, and there's one reason for that swing. To Chad's credit, it only took him to his third season (you guessed it, 2017) as the Bobcats GM to turn them into a winning team. After the East took over dominance of the win-column, the Bobcats' tax woes put them in the eterna-tank, but they join the Grizzlies, who have been there longer, to balance the win-loss columns out and scratch one area where the West could've gained some ground.
2. AD
Wombataholic joined the league to take over the Pistons in 2016. It was the first time that the Pistons had an active manager since I joined PBSL, and with the days of RunningBack15 and xbhitterx leaving the Pistons in shambles mirroring their home city. However, when the best player in the league is on a team with an active GM, wins are bound to ensue, and ensue they have! While the Pistons won 48 games in 2016, leaving the West's dominance that year in tact, in 2017, the Pistons won 64 games and have averaged about 58 wins per season in the years that the East was dominant. The Pistons also haven't had generally stacked teams. They've always had at least a gap or two in their starting lineups, and they rarely dip into the tax, which frees other teams to sign players that Detroit could've otherwise stocked up on to go for the record.
3. <expletive deleted>' Wig
The Hawks haven't missed the playoffs in 16 seasons. They haven't lost under 50 games in 16 seasons. And the guy only gets paid $649,630! I make $3,157,451 as GM of the Bulls. So who's the real winner? (Hint: Me). The computer also has never voted Wig GMOY despite crazy, record setting seasons. Why? The computer sees all, Wig, and it knows what you've been up to with your admin privileges!
4. More so...<expletive deleted>' Scott
You know what happened in 2016? The 76ers did not make the playoffs. That's the last time that happened. They've also won at least 50 games every season from 2017 on. And because people trade him lotto picks and blue chip players for next to nothing, there's no end in sight to this. The Bulls organization may pay me twice as much as the 76ers pay good ol' balls, but something inside me is telling me that I should move to Philadelphia and become a trash collector since people will pay top dollar for Scott's garbage. If that fails, I can also become a garbage picking, field goal kicking Philadelphia Phenomenon.
5. Inactive owners
We look a lot more active now, but the xbhitterx Pistons were probably the last time an Eastern team was neglected. Sure, the Knicks had stewards last year, but Logan left the team in pretty good shape, and we got a replacement GM in quick. Meanwhile, the Clippers, Thunder, Warriors, and to some extent, the Lakers have been on autopilot for years without anyone really stepping in to steward them before the franchises entered some really ugly configurations. The Lakers and Mavs were the last to be stewarded, and both of those teams are in much better shape than the Warriors, Clippers, or Thunder. It seems that when a GM definitively quits, stewards keep the league afloat and balanced. When a GM ghosts, it takes a few seasons of a franchise being dragged through the mud before anything is done about it. Since 2016, all of the teams dragging through the mud have been out West.
Overall, I think that the inactive owners on 3 teams probably had the most to do with things. For every Scott and Wig in the East, there's someone in the West who hasn't missed the playoffs. Garrett's taken the Suns there every year since 2016 with the power of Kevin Love (though with less overall wins than the Pistons), and Raby, Tani, and Ryan have been pretty reliable postseason mainstays--each only missing one year when the East was posting better records. Of course, with 3 teams inactive and one facing tax burdens (two if you count the Spurs brief stint with delinquency that forced them into their current long rebuild), there's less incentive to truly rebuild and rebuilds can come along much faster.
So what do we do about it? Nothing major. Just try to keep the community as a whole vibrant and full of participation, and win-loss records should level out eventually, so shout out to all the new dudes. Hope you stick around.
