The Green 13: A Look Into the Latter Stages of the Lotto
Posted: Fri Sep 21, 2018 6:17 pm
So with the Lotto finished and the draft almost upon us, it's time to take a look at the reasons why this draft is considered to be one of the deepest in sim history - the 13 green-potential players that combine with the 9 blue-potential guys to make a 22-pick deep lotto period in the eyes of many. But are these guys truly worth the pre-TC hype?
Harold Gonzalez
One of the most interesting players in this draft. At 7'3" with 37 QKN, 98 STR, and C potential everywhere except INS (B), DRB (B), 3PS (B!), HND (D), and PAS (D), it's hard to imagine just how good this guy could be with proper training and TC blessings. So hard, in fact, that it makes him an incredibly risky pick. He's so ridiculously raw (and out of shape with 26 stamina), that one or two bad camps and you're left hoping for a Sherwood Winger or Stephen Twomey. Don't know who those guys are? That's the point. Be prepared to use TC insurance for the next 9 seasons, and to live in constant fear of your hard-earned points going bye-bye.
Steven Nix
The only G/G in this draft, Nix is already an NBA-ready player. But as usual with NBA-ready rookie bigs, "they are who we think they are." Nix really reminds me of Alton Towers. Yes, he'll be able to use his height (7'1") effectively to gobble up boards and defend the post (41 ORB/C, 69 DRB/B, 61 PSD/B, 75 BLK/B), but it's a toss-up if he'll ever make a difference on the other side of the court with those Cs in INS and JPS. His utter lack of lift (23 JPS) won't help him there either. I know it sounds like I'm nixing Nix from my top prospects list, but that's just the skeptic in me. If you're looking to put a defensive-minded squad out on the floor, Nix is a fantastic young big to pick up. And if a GM and TC can make something of those Cs, watch out.
Antonio Copeland
This guy is a jet. 97 QKN and 100 STA? Wow. Pair that with a solid 67 JMP, and you have the makings of a respectable offensive threat athletically. His skills only compliment his athleticism further, as he sports Bs in INS, 3PS, FT, HND, PRD, and STL, as well as an A in JPS. Unfortunately, he's super raw. The potentials are nice, but their current ratings all hover around the 35 mark. He's also 6'1", which isn't quite the ideal height for an offensive guard, Tyler Ulis notwithstanding. Speaking of Ulis, that's pretty much Copeland's ceiling, a faster, bargain-bin version of Tyler the Celtic Creator. You could do worse with a mid-teens pick.
Stephen Wright
Speed is a recurring theme in this draft, as there are quite a few guys with top-notch QKN. Wright is an especially interesting case amongst the green potential crowd, because not only does he have top-notch QKN (83), but he also has top-notch JMP (85) and height (6'6"). And hopefully that will be the last time I say "top-notch." Anyway, these attributes makes him an ideal prospect at the 2. Having Bs in INS and 3PS is great, and he reminds me a little of Gerald Green, only shorter and with more speed and lift. He might even be able to share the rock a bit with a B in PAS, a nice skill to have for a slasher. Defensively he's a dud. The only thing of note is 50 STL. Overall a solid pickup if you just want a scorer.
Terry Perez
So maybe you like Wright, but he's a little too ready to contribute. Also, you hate 3pt shooting and really hate the fact that Wright can't defend opposing guards. You'd rather have someone a bit more versatile potential-wise, who just kinda maybe might be able to fill the swingman role defensively. Well here you go. 6'6", 77 QKN, 70 JMP, and as raw as a broken egg. Good luck.
Rocco Farmer
So maybe Wright and Perez are your type, but not your type, if you know what I mean. You don't want to bother with maybes and might-bes, you know exactly what you want: A tall (6'7"), quick (87) slasher (77 INS/B) who can defend opposing 2s (44 PRD/B) and most importantly, jump out of the gym (84 JMP). He doesn't have to do anything else (and he probably won't), all you want are those sweet, sweet Dunk Contest winner points. Here you go.
Christopher Johnson
Basically a shorter (6'4") version of Rocco Farmer with Wright's defensive "ability" and Perez's low current ratings. You have been warned.
Nathan Thompson
Basically Wright if he was average athletically (69 QKN, 45 STR, 49 JMP, 68 STA), and had C potentials in a few interesting areas like Perez (Cs in PAS, 3PS, ORB, PRD). As a matter of fact, let's just call him Sterry Peright. Peright's your quintessential mid-teens pick, though I would be concerned about his SF athleticism failing to mix well with his SG skillset.
Joseph Reading
Reading's pretty much the "role player" version of Nix. While Nix does have a few intangibles that could elevate him to the level of a star, Reading is as straightforward as it gets: He will grab boards, put them back in, and defend. Nothing more, nothing less. He does have an unusually solid JMP rating of 52 and an inch on Nix at 7'2", but he's very much a good consolation prize when Nix goes off the board.
Bruno Hidalgo
Immediately Hidalgo's NBA-ready offensive ability (51 INS/B, 52 JPS/B, 72 3PS/A) jumps out at you, but he's actually a fairly interesting package overall. 35 HND is solid enough even with the D potential once the B potential in PAS is taken into account. He should be a serviceable defender with B potential in PRD, and might even be able to help out on the boards with B potential in ORB. Unfortunately his athleticism is quite below par for his position, but I like the versatility of his skillset. He could develop into a quality 6th man.
James Kirkendall
Overall, there's actually a lack of bigs in this draft, which makes Kirk a bit more enticing than he'd be otherwise. That's not to say Kirk's a bad prospect, though. In fact, he shows strong potential as a lockdown post defender (44 PSD/B, 37 STL/B, 56 BLK/A), despite his overall rawness. Offensively, he projects to be solid and reliable with 53 JMP complimenting his 42 INS nicely, along with 35 HND (B potential) and 81 FT (A potential). At 6'11" and just 19 years of age, those looking for a big man might want to give Kirk a look.
Lamont Ellis
I don't often do this, but don't do this. Don't be that guy.* Don't look at the B potential in STL and A potential in BLK and think you've found the next Bonifaz Wenninger defensively. Don't look at his A potential in INS and think that he'll end up with at least an 80 rating by 24. Ellis is strictly a project player. He's a guy who'll only succeed if someone like Balls or Wig snaps him up. This man is one dropped potential rating away from being O/Y, one bad TC from being O/O. You have been warned.
*If you are that guy, be prepared to invest, and keep TC protection on always. Athletically he has potential, but rock-bottom defenses will keep him a liability no matter how well he grows into his ratings. The Cs in HND and PAS look juicy, but he also has extremely low current ratings there.
Ted Whitlock
Pretty much your standard big here. B and C potential in the right places, with a big fat A in INS. He's 18 and is quite quick for 6'10" (44 QKN), so he's worth a look, but there are better options out there.
So it looks like the green gang might be slightly overhyped. Only about half are up to the level we'd normally expect from low-level lotto picks. The other half are your usual project picks who would only be picked in the #10-#15 range in other drafts because of the green. Of course, who knows what the future holds, but as of right now, keep cool and don't assume that you're automatically going to get a steal in the lower teens because the color says so. Later.
Harold Gonzalez
One of the most interesting players in this draft. At 7'3" with 37 QKN, 98 STR, and C potential everywhere except INS (B), DRB (B), 3PS (B!), HND (D), and PAS (D), it's hard to imagine just how good this guy could be with proper training and TC blessings. So hard, in fact, that it makes him an incredibly risky pick. He's so ridiculously raw (and out of shape with 26 stamina), that one or two bad camps and you're left hoping for a Sherwood Winger or Stephen Twomey. Don't know who those guys are? That's the point. Be prepared to use TC insurance for the next 9 seasons, and to live in constant fear of your hard-earned points going bye-bye.
Steven Nix
The only G/G in this draft, Nix is already an NBA-ready player. But as usual with NBA-ready rookie bigs, "they are who we think they are." Nix really reminds me of Alton Towers. Yes, he'll be able to use his height (7'1") effectively to gobble up boards and defend the post (41 ORB/C, 69 DRB/B, 61 PSD/B, 75 BLK/B), but it's a toss-up if he'll ever make a difference on the other side of the court with those Cs in INS and JPS. His utter lack of lift (23 JPS) won't help him there either. I know it sounds like I'm nixing Nix from my top prospects list, but that's just the skeptic in me. If you're looking to put a defensive-minded squad out on the floor, Nix is a fantastic young big to pick up. And if a GM and TC can make something of those Cs, watch out.
Antonio Copeland
This guy is a jet. 97 QKN and 100 STA? Wow. Pair that with a solid 67 JMP, and you have the makings of a respectable offensive threat athletically. His skills only compliment his athleticism further, as he sports Bs in INS, 3PS, FT, HND, PRD, and STL, as well as an A in JPS. Unfortunately, he's super raw. The potentials are nice, but their current ratings all hover around the 35 mark. He's also 6'1", which isn't quite the ideal height for an offensive guard, Tyler Ulis notwithstanding. Speaking of Ulis, that's pretty much Copeland's ceiling, a faster, bargain-bin version of Tyler the Celtic Creator. You could do worse with a mid-teens pick.
Stephen Wright
Speed is a recurring theme in this draft, as there are quite a few guys with top-notch QKN. Wright is an especially interesting case amongst the green potential crowd, because not only does he have top-notch QKN (83), but he also has top-notch JMP (85) and height (6'6"). And hopefully that will be the last time I say "top-notch." Anyway, these attributes makes him an ideal prospect at the 2. Having Bs in INS and 3PS is great, and he reminds me a little of Gerald Green, only shorter and with more speed and lift. He might even be able to share the rock a bit with a B in PAS, a nice skill to have for a slasher. Defensively he's a dud. The only thing of note is 50 STL. Overall a solid pickup if you just want a scorer.
Terry Perez
So maybe you like Wright, but he's a little too ready to contribute. Also, you hate 3pt shooting and really hate the fact that Wright can't defend opposing guards. You'd rather have someone a bit more versatile potential-wise, who just kinda maybe might be able to fill the swingman role defensively. Well here you go. 6'6", 77 QKN, 70 JMP, and as raw as a broken egg. Good luck.
Rocco Farmer
So maybe Wright and Perez are your type, but not your type, if you know what I mean. You don't want to bother with maybes and might-bes, you know exactly what you want: A tall (6'7"), quick (87) slasher (77 INS/B) who can defend opposing 2s (44 PRD/B) and most importantly, jump out of the gym (84 JMP). He doesn't have to do anything else (and he probably won't), all you want are those sweet, sweet Dunk Contest winner points. Here you go.
Christopher Johnson
Basically a shorter (6'4") version of Rocco Farmer with Wright's defensive "ability" and Perez's low current ratings. You have been warned.
Nathan Thompson
Basically Wright if he was average athletically (69 QKN, 45 STR, 49 JMP, 68 STA), and had C potentials in a few interesting areas like Perez (Cs in PAS, 3PS, ORB, PRD). As a matter of fact, let's just call him Sterry Peright. Peright's your quintessential mid-teens pick, though I would be concerned about his SF athleticism failing to mix well with his SG skillset.
Joseph Reading
Reading's pretty much the "role player" version of Nix. While Nix does have a few intangibles that could elevate him to the level of a star, Reading is as straightforward as it gets: He will grab boards, put them back in, and defend. Nothing more, nothing less. He does have an unusually solid JMP rating of 52 and an inch on Nix at 7'2", but he's very much a good consolation prize when Nix goes off the board.
Bruno Hidalgo
Immediately Hidalgo's NBA-ready offensive ability (51 INS/B, 52 JPS/B, 72 3PS/A) jumps out at you, but he's actually a fairly interesting package overall. 35 HND is solid enough even with the D potential once the B potential in PAS is taken into account. He should be a serviceable defender with B potential in PRD, and might even be able to help out on the boards with B potential in ORB. Unfortunately his athleticism is quite below par for his position, but I like the versatility of his skillset. He could develop into a quality 6th man.
James Kirkendall
Overall, there's actually a lack of bigs in this draft, which makes Kirk a bit more enticing than he'd be otherwise. That's not to say Kirk's a bad prospect, though. In fact, he shows strong potential as a lockdown post defender (44 PSD/B, 37 STL/B, 56 BLK/A), despite his overall rawness. Offensively, he projects to be solid and reliable with 53 JMP complimenting his 42 INS nicely, along with 35 HND (B potential) and 81 FT (A potential). At 6'11" and just 19 years of age, those looking for a big man might want to give Kirk a look.
Lamont Ellis
I don't often do this, but don't do this. Don't be that guy.* Don't look at the B potential in STL and A potential in BLK and think you've found the next Bonifaz Wenninger defensively. Don't look at his A potential in INS and think that he'll end up with at least an 80 rating by 24. Ellis is strictly a project player. He's a guy who'll only succeed if someone like Balls or Wig snaps him up. This man is one dropped potential rating away from being O/Y, one bad TC from being O/O. You have been warned.
*If you are that guy, be prepared to invest, and keep TC protection on always. Athletically he has potential, but rock-bottom defenses will keep him a liability no matter how well he grows into his ratings. The Cs in HND and PAS look juicy, but he also has extremely low current ratings there.
Ted Whitlock
Pretty much your standard big here. B and C potential in the right places, with a big fat A in INS. He's 18 and is quite quick for 6'10" (44 QKN), so he's worth a look, but there are better options out there.
So it looks like the green gang might be slightly overhyped. Only about half are up to the level we'd normally expect from low-level lotto picks. The other half are your usual project picks who would only be picked in the #10-#15 range in other drafts because of the green. Of course, who knows what the future holds, but as of right now, keep cool and don't assume that you're automatically going to get a steal in the lower teens because the color says so. Later.