Trade DEDline 5-on-5
Posted: Wed Aug 29, 2018 10:28 am
Thought Trade Deadline and All-Star break would be a good time to pause and ask some tough (or not-so-tough) questions about what's to come this season. I'd like to thank my cohorts:
BallsoHard - Philadelphia 76ers
NOLa. - Sacramento Kings
Garbageman - Chicago Bulls
IAmQuailMan - Milwaukee Bucks
Enjoy!
1. Each of the division leaders (outside the Southwest, sorry LoCo) has a legitimate chance to win it all. Which of these 5 teams should be the most active at the deadline, and what should they be looking for?
BSH: I'm going to go with the Kings here. The team is showing a ton of fight with Duren in it, but the Jazz have the most talent in the league and could surpass the Kings for the #1 seed in the West, which matters in the playoffs. I put out an article where you can a solid trade idea i came up for them.
NOLa.: I think of all the teams currently leading, I’d have to say the Hawks. This is a talented team and they are struggling against a Magic team that most of us thought would be looking at a top 5 pick, not a top 5 playoff seed. If there is one thing this team doesn’t need, it’s more scoring. They need defense, especially down low. The two starters at PF and C have an average post defense of 46. They do well on offense, but the player with the highest post defense on their team (Lopez with 75) has yet to play a single minute this season. If they don’t get post defense, they should then get perimeter defense. The player with the highest perimeter defense is Tyreke Evans.
G-Man: I'd say that the Jazz and the Bucks are too deep into the tax (and in repeater tax) to buy too much more. In fact, the Jazz might have to do some soul searching next year because they've got a few guys they won't want to lose and one guy they might not be able to lose. Back to the question, though. The 76ers and the Hawks both have the depth to sell for a big piece, and the difference is that I know that one of these teams is trying in earnest to do it. Both teams are strong enough as it is, and the right move could easily put one of them over the top as an odds on favorite. Both of these teams are pretty solid all around, but I'd say the Hawks are more in need of a big who does traditional big man things well. Aaron Donald is great with scoring and blocking shots, but his rebounding and post D leave something to be desired, and while Andrew Baldwin picks up some of that slack, he's not elite level there either.
Q-Man: My vote is the Sixers. There have been rumblings of them making one last big splash move (not that they need to...) to lock up the top seed this year. Bucks appear to be making lux tax apron moves. Hawks... well you never know what'll happen with them, but they have been pretty quiet on the trade front. Jazz are pretty much M.I.A. lately. Kings are still crying over Duren's injury to realize it's trade deadline.
Syndicate: Two votes for the Hawks, one for the Kings, and one for the Sixers. Being contrarian by nature, that leaves me with a choice between the Bucks and the Jazz. Although I think the Bucks are probably one piece away from being able to claim the first back-to-back championships since the great KG/Wade Nuggets team of the late oughts, I have to say the Jazz here. Now the rest of this paragraph is obviously semantic because it seems the Jazz GM is currently somewhere shooting more freethrows in a day than hack-a-Shaq O'Neal in entire seasons with no time to review sim-league, but you never know with him and he could end up trading his whole team to Doug at 7:59pm - which would actually tackle both teams in question's problems. Simply put, the Jazz are staring at an 80 point tax bill this year, and well over 230 points next year. Thats, uh, a problem, and one they'd be smart to tackle while they can still trade impending RFA J.R. Johnson.
2. The Thunder have only won 3 games this year. Who is their next victim and why?
BSH: 03/13/23 Clippers- Save THE DATE
I think they can win this because the Clippers are about as hopeless against these Thunder AND it's at home for the Thunder. Plus you have to look at the experience factor. The Thunder have Diallo, finally moved from PG to his Natural PF position in his third season an Orange player. Brookins in his second yellow year and Collin Sexton is quite clearly their best player, thanks for the trade with the 76ers a few years ago.
NOLa.: I think the Thunder have a good chance against the Mavericks on 02/20. It’s at home where they got their only three wins, and the Mavs just sent a lot of talent out to reduce their salary.
G-Man: The fans. The Thunder don't have an active GM, so I don't want to put too much thought into who will lose to them (if anyone) and why. Whatever happened to the check-in thread? I know it's unrealistic to expect that we can always have 30 active GMs, but we should probably get stewards a little more expediently. It'd probably be easier to get new GMs to stick around if we didn't put them in charge of dumpster fires, and it's better for the league overall if there aren't players stuck in contracts on inactive teams who can't be traded even if it's in mutual best interest of both organizations.
Q-Man: Can they be their own victim? Contraction has been brought up quite a few times in recent seasons, as we have steadily had at least 2 vacant/ignored teams for the last few seasons. Is it possible that their lack of activity could bring about their utter demise? I'm not sure. But in a league where we have had a hard time in recent history finding adequate replacement GMs (sans letsplayhorse, who has been a great addition), perhaps addition by subtraction is the way to go.
Syndicate: This ended up being more of a mean question than I meant it to be. Probably should have posted the ol' 'What's been your biggest surprise/disappointment this year?' question. So I'll just answer that one!
Biggest Surprise: The Orlando Magic. I could absolutely have seen this team close to the playoffs, maybe even a little above .500, but currently sitting in the 5th seed, a game behind Atlanta for the division? Wow. Sure, playing in the same division as the Bobcats and Heat is a leg up, but they actually LOST two games against Charlotte, so this team seems legit. Wait, they lost two games against Charlotte, and they're legit? Oh yeah, because Sim League.
Biggest Disappointment: Seems like every year I think this, but for a team with so much talent, the Nets are a disappointment once again. They have everything, passing, scoring, defense, rebounding, a bit of depth. There's no reason this team shouldn't be in the playoffs. GM RPF is an MVP, Coach RPF may want to try some different tactics.
3. Do the RoboGM Knicks have a chance to win it all? Why or why not?
BSH: Yes. If you look at a lot of the advanced stats, they're as good as anyone in the league. Sure the lack of adjustments can cost them in the playoffs, but if i remember correctly; the greatest team of all-time - the hawks pretty much went same throughout 3 entire playoffs and did pretty well.
NOLa.: I think they do, because Jokic and Harris are playing great, with Harris having a career-year. Dooley is a great pure PG and is playing very well. The one weakness is PF where Irvin Benjamin is filling in, but they are making it work with the core trio meshing well. It’s not a fluke and they’ve played consistently well all season, even pushing the 76ers some and making their lead uncomfortable. I don’t believe they will win the division, but once you’re in the playoffs anything can happen.
G-Man: It depends on whether or not the DC is force-recommended during the playoffs. Jokic and Harris are phenomenal players, and with Dooley and a cast of adequate forwards who all somehow went green in training camp, they're a competitive team. Not sure why recommended works for them when I've seen it come up with some absolutely terrible ideas over the years for me personally.
Q-Man: I think they have a shot. The biggest disadvantage they have against their opponents is that RoboGM cannot adjust the DC for their opponents. I feel like this would open up a window for their opponent in each round of the playoffs. That said, the opponents still would need to overcome the amount of talent the Knicks roster has.
Syndicate: I think the GMs in the East are too good to be beaten by RoboGM in 3 straight 7-game series. I'm going to call the Knicks a regular-season team without a shot to win it all.
4. Which currently out of the projected playoffs should really be a buyer for a final push? Which team currently in the top 8 should be a seller?
BSH: Seller-Suns
My completely biased opinion because i have their pick, but overall this has been a long time coming. Unlike the team below them, they really haven't don't a wonderful time resetting some youth around Kevin Love. there comes a point in time where you just have to get what you can get from your assets and stop playing the max money game because Love can no longer carry a good player and scrubs to the championship game.
Buyer- Rockets
The Rockets have done a good job at transitioning from a very old team to getting some younger players to surround by the ageless wonder- Al Horford. The interesting thing is, they're still in the race to make the playoffs and only 3 games back from the 6 seed, where they can make some noise.
NOLa.: This is tough. I want to say the Pacers should be a buyer, but they already did when they grabbed Smart. I don’t know how flexible they can be in moving the remainder of their roster, but this team could be better and I thought they would be better. For someone who should sell, I am going with the Celtics. It’s not so much that I don’t believe they can win as much as they’ve been so inconsistent, lack depth and have the 2nd highest salary in the league. They are nearly $42M over the cap, and will owe an estimated 51 points as a non-repeater. That’s a lot for a team that hasn’t found a way to get the team to click.
G-Man: All the teams outside the playoffs have their picks except the Warriors. It's probably too little / too late situation there, but with Kanter, Antetekounmpo, and Harden, an active Ben could have brought a lot to the table. I'm sad to see what happened to the Wizards. They ended up moving OPJ, but I thought that they could have at least made a push for the playoffs once he came back since he's kind of a huge difference maker. With a lot of young green potential players on his roster, he could've made some win now moves and finished the season strong. Then again, there's a pretty big gap between 9th and 8th in the East right now.
As for teams that should sell, the Knicks should sell at least a little bit so they avoid another year of repeater tax, but there are a few that come to mind. I'd say the Jazz should sell for tax reasons, but they might be better off doing that in the offseason when more teams have open books. The Suns should probably sell if they can because Kevin Love isn't enough anymore. In the East, I'd go with the Celtics. They have a lot of young guys, but they're far over the tax with only 9 people on the team, and they've got Jaylen Brown to resign next season.
Q-Man: I think the Rockets really should try to exchange one of their forwards for a guard (coughBealcough). They are one dynamic guard away from taking the Southwest back from the Pelicans. As for the top 8... I'm not sure if this means top 8 lotto or top 8 in each conference... FOR THE LATTER, I honestly don't think any of them should sell... the playoffs are almost definitely locked for the top 8 in each division, with the exception of the West's 8th/9th battle. There is a chance in the east that the Pacers and/or Nets could make a push if one of the 6th-8th seed teams sees a significant injury to a star player. If this question meant the Lotto top 8, the Cavs should be selling right now. They have a couple great players, an all-star and an expiring big man. With the future up in the air with this team, why not cash in on getting something for a guy they'll lose in the off-season anyway... while further improving your draft position?
Syndicate: If the Suns can get a couple picks out of a Kevin Love trade, they should absolutely move him. His days of single-handedly carrying a squad through the playoffs seem over, and they should parlay that into some value. Speaking of which, hey Messi, uh...check your inbox. You know, no reason.
For the buyer, someone has got to make a move to take the SW division, right? Right? Bueller?
5. What is the best player you expect to be moved before the trade deadline, why, and to where?
BSH: I think Buddy Pedraza* is going to be moved and it makes me sad. Buddy has been my favorite player on any other team outside of Jeff Duren and frankly he's the one guy that just makes you think of him with his franchise as much as Kemp did on the Warriors. Why? Well i think the writing is on the wall for the Nets. After what looked like a destined run last off-season, beating my 76ers, they suffered an injury that ultimately stopped them. This team is aging and there's a lot of salary out there. As to where? I'd say a big time contender would want to go after him at 29. A team that needs a win now player and is weak at the Center spot.
NOLa.: I’m waiting for the Mavs to trade Bradley Beal. Everyone else is gone and the first step of a rebuild is to sell everything with a pulse that has value. Beal has the most value on this team, but the salary is he’s for most to match. SGs are hard to move sometimes, but Beal has shown to be a “do it all” type of guard. A team that can match the salary and offer some relief could be the Lakers, but they don’t really need him. It’s hard to find a fit, which may be why he hasn’t been moved, but he could be the best player on the move.
G-Man: I'm sure we all have some insider information on this question, and I'd rather take a wild guess than give anything away. I don't think we're going to see two game-changing moves. I'll wildly swing and say Thomas Robinson gets moved to the Hawks for Tyreke Evans, Roger Worthy, and points because why not.
Q-Man: Buddy Pedraza. I have a feeling he's gone. Not sure where, but I know RPF is ready to move on and that he's made him readily available. Murmurs around the league are that there may be a deal in place, but nothing has been confirmed. There are quite a few suitors that could use his services in each conference, and I would be VERY surprised to see him on the Nets roster come Feb 16th. My guess is either the Lakers, Magic, or... dark horse... Bucks.
Syndicate: How about Jrue Holiday? He's been on the block forever, maybe the Nuggets will finally move him? Speaking of which, any offers out there? Outside of that, I'll actually say that no real impact players get moved today. Minor deals only. Trade DUDline.
*Editors note - I think it's hilarious that GM BsH refers to him as Pedroza, but I corrected spelling for purposes of professionalism.
BallsoHard - Philadelphia 76ers
NOLa. - Sacramento Kings
Garbageman - Chicago Bulls
IAmQuailMan - Milwaukee Bucks
Enjoy!
1. Each of the division leaders (outside the Southwest, sorry LoCo) has a legitimate chance to win it all. Which of these 5 teams should be the most active at the deadline, and what should they be looking for?
BSH: I'm going to go with the Kings here. The team is showing a ton of fight with Duren in it, but the Jazz have the most talent in the league and could surpass the Kings for the #1 seed in the West, which matters in the playoffs. I put out an article where you can a solid trade idea i came up for them.
NOLa.: I think of all the teams currently leading, I’d have to say the Hawks. This is a talented team and they are struggling against a Magic team that most of us thought would be looking at a top 5 pick, not a top 5 playoff seed. If there is one thing this team doesn’t need, it’s more scoring. They need defense, especially down low. The two starters at PF and C have an average post defense of 46. They do well on offense, but the player with the highest post defense on their team (Lopez with 75) has yet to play a single minute this season. If they don’t get post defense, they should then get perimeter defense. The player with the highest perimeter defense is Tyreke Evans.
G-Man: I'd say that the Jazz and the Bucks are too deep into the tax (and in repeater tax) to buy too much more. In fact, the Jazz might have to do some soul searching next year because they've got a few guys they won't want to lose and one guy they might not be able to lose. Back to the question, though. The 76ers and the Hawks both have the depth to sell for a big piece, and the difference is that I know that one of these teams is trying in earnest to do it. Both teams are strong enough as it is, and the right move could easily put one of them over the top as an odds on favorite. Both of these teams are pretty solid all around, but I'd say the Hawks are more in need of a big who does traditional big man things well. Aaron Donald is great with scoring and blocking shots, but his rebounding and post D leave something to be desired, and while Andrew Baldwin picks up some of that slack, he's not elite level there either.
Q-Man: My vote is the Sixers. There have been rumblings of them making one last big splash move (not that they need to...) to lock up the top seed this year. Bucks appear to be making lux tax apron moves. Hawks... well you never know what'll happen with them, but they have been pretty quiet on the trade front. Jazz are pretty much M.I.A. lately. Kings are still crying over Duren's injury to realize it's trade deadline.
Syndicate: Two votes for the Hawks, one for the Kings, and one for the Sixers. Being contrarian by nature, that leaves me with a choice between the Bucks and the Jazz. Although I think the Bucks are probably one piece away from being able to claim the first back-to-back championships since the great KG/Wade Nuggets team of the late oughts, I have to say the Jazz here. Now the rest of this paragraph is obviously semantic because it seems the Jazz GM is currently somewhere shooting more freethrows in a day than hack-a-Shaq O'Neal in entire seasons with no time to review sim-league, but you never know with him and he could end up trading his whole team to Doug at 7:59pm - which would actually tackle both teams in question's problems. Simply put, the Jazz are staring at an 80 point tax bill this year, and well over 230 points next year. Thats, uh, a problem, and one they'd be smart to tackle while they can still trade impending RFA J.R. Johnson.
2. The Thunder have only won 3 games this year. Who is their next victim and why?
BSH: 03/13/23 Clippers- Save THE DATE
I think they can win this because the Clippers are about as hopeless against these Thunder AND it's at home for the Thunder. Plus you have to look at the experience factor. The Thunder have Diallo, finally moved from PG to his Natural PF position in his third season an Orange player. Brookins in his second yellow year and Collin Sexton is quite clearly their best player, thanks for the trade with the 76ers a few years ago.
NOLa.: I think the Thunder have a good chance against the Mavericks on 02/20. It’s at home where they got their only three wins, and the Mavs just sent a lot of talent out to reduce their salary.
G-Man: The fans. The Thunder don't have an active GM, so I don't want to put too much thought into who will lose to them (if anyone) and why. Whatever happened to the check-in thread? I know it's unrealistic to expect that we can always have 30 active GMs, but we should probably get stewards a little more expediently. It'd probably be easier to get new GMs to stick around if we didn't put them in charge of dumpster fires, and it's better for the league overall if there aren't players stuck in contracts on inactive teams who can't be traded even if it's in mutual best interest of both organizations.
Q-Man: Can they be their own victim? Contraction has been brought up quite a few times in recent seasons, as we have steadily had at least 2 vacant/ignored teams for the last few seasons. Is it possible that their lack of activity could bring about their utter demise? I'm not sure. But in a league where we have had a hard time in recent history finding adequate replacement GMs (sans letsplayhorse, who has been a great addition), perhaps addition by subtraction is the way to go.
Syndicate: This ended up being more of a mean question than I meant it to be. Probably should have posted the ol' 'What's been your biggest surprise/disappointment this year?' question. So I'll just answer that one!
Biggest Surprise: The Orlando Magic. I could absolutely have seen this team close to the playoffs, maybe even a little above .500, but currently sitting in the 5th seed, a game behind Atlanta for the division? Wow. Sure, playing in the same division as the Bobcats and Heat is a leg up, but they actually LOST two games against Charlotte, so this team seems legit. Wait, they lost two games against Charlotte, and they're legit? Oh yeah, because Sim League.
Biggest Disappointment: Seems like every year I think this, but for a team with so much talent, the Nets are a disappointment once again. They have everything, passing, scoring, defense, rebounding, a bit of depth. There's no reason this team shouldn't be in the playoffs. GM RPF is an MVP, Coach RPF may want to try some different tactics.
3. Do the RoboGM Knicks have a chance to win it all? Why or why not?
BSH: Yes. If you look at a lot of the advanced stats, they're as good as anyone in the league. Sure the lack of adjustments can cost them in the playoffs, but if i remember correctly; the greatest team of all-time - the hawks pretty much went same throughout 3 entire playoffs and did pretty well.
NOLa.: I think they do, because Jokic and Harris are playing great, with Harris having a career-year. Dooley is a great pure PG and is playing very well. The one weakness is PF where Irvin Benjamin is filling in, but they are making it work with the core trio meshing well. It’s not a fluke and they’ve played consistently well all season, even pushing the 76ers some and making their lead uncomfortable. I don’t believe they will win the division, but once you’re in the playoffs anything can happen.
G-Man: It depends on whether or not the DC is force-recommended during the playoffs. Jokic and Harris are phenomenal players, and with Dooley and a cast of adequate forwards who all somehow went green in training camp, they're a competitive team. Not sure why recommended works for them when I've seen it come up with some absolutely terrible ideas over the years for me personally.
Q-Man: I think they have a shot. The biggest disadvantage they have against their opponents is that RoboGM cannot adjust the DC for their opponents. I feel like this would open up a window for their opponent in each round of the playoffs. That said, the opponents still would need to overcome the amount of talent the Knicks roster has.
Syndicate: I think the GMs in the East are too good to be beaten by RoboGM in 3 straight 7-game series. I'm going to call the Knicks a regular-season team without a shot to win it all.
4. Which currently out of the projected playoffs should really be a buyer for a final push? Which team currently in the top 8 should be a seller?
BSH: Seller-Suns
My completely biased opinion because i have their pick, but overall this has been a long time coming. Unlike the team below them, they really haven't don't a wonderful time resetting some youth around Kevin Love. there comes a point in time where you just have to get what you can get from your assets and stop playing the max money game because Love can no longer carry a good player and scrubs to the championship game.
Buyer- Rockets
The Rockets have done a good job at transitioning from a very old team to getting some younger players to surround by the ageless wonder- Al Horford. The interesting thing is, they're still in the race to make the playoffs and only 3 games back from the 6 seed, where they can make some noise.
NOLa.: This is tough. I want to say the Pacers should be a buyer, but they already did when they grabbed Smart. I don’t know how flexible they can be in moving the remainder of their roster, but this team could be better and I thought they would be better. For someone who should sell, I am going with the Celtics. It’s not so much that I don’t believe they can win as much as they’ve been so inconsistent, lack depth and have the 2nd highest salary in the league. They are nearly $42M over the cap, and will owe an estimated 51 points as a non-repeater. That’s a lot for a team that hasn’t found a way to get the team to click.
G-Man: All the teams outside the playoffs have their picks except the Warriors. It's probably too little / too late situation there, but with Kanter, Antetekounmpo, and Harden, an active Ben could have brought a lot to the table. I'm sad to see what happened to the Wizards. They ended up moving OPJ, but I thought that they could have at least made a push for the playoffs once he came back since he's kind of a huge difference maker. With a lot of young green potential players on his roster, he could've made some win now moves and finished the season strong. Then again, there's a pretty big gap between 9th and 8th in the East right now.
As for teams that should sell, the Knicks should sell at least a little bit so they avoid another year of repeater tax, but there are a few that come to mind. I'd say the Jazz should sell for tax reasons, but they might be better off doing that in the offseason when more teams have open books. The Suns should probably sell if they can because Kevin Love isn't enough anymore. In the East, I'd go with the Celtics. They have a lot of young guys, but they're far over the tax with only 9 people on the team, and they've got Jaylen Brown to resign next season.
Q-Man: I think the Rockets really should try to exchange one of their forwards for a guard (coughBealcough). They are one dynamic guard away from taking the Southwest back from the Pelicans. As for the top 8... I'm not sure if this means top 8 lotto or top 8 in each conference... FOR THE LATTER, I honestly don't think any of them should sell... the playoffs are almost definitely locked for the top 8 in each division, with the exception of the West's 8th/9th battle. There is a chance in the east that the Pacers and/or Nets could make a push if one of the 6th-8th seed teams sees a significant injury to a star player. If this question meant the Lotto top 8, the Cavs should be selling right now. They have a couple great players, an all-star and an expiring big man. With the future up in the air with this team, why not cash in on getting something for a guy they'll lose in the off-season anyway... while further improving your draft position?
Syndicate: If the Suns can get a couple picks out of a Kevin Love trade, they should absolutely move him. His days of single-handedly carrying a squad through the playoffs seem over, and they should parlay that into some value. Speaking of which, hey Messi, uh...check your inbox. You know, no reason.
For the buyer, someone has got to make a move to take the SW division, right? Right? Bueller?
5. What is the best player you expect to be moved before the trade deadline, why, and to where?
BSH: I think Buddy Pedraza* is going to be moved and it makes me sad. Buddy has been my favorite player on any other team outside of Jeff Duren and frankly he's the one guy that just makes you think of him with his franchise as much as Kemp did on the Warriors. Why? Well i think the writing is on the wall for the Nets. After what looked like a destined run last off-season, beating my 76ers, they suffered an injury that ultimately stopped them. This team is aging and there's a lot of salary out there. As to where? I'd say a big time contender would want to go after him at 29. A team that needs a win now player and is weak at the Center spot.
NOLa.: I’m waiting for the Mavs to trade Bradley Beal. Everyone else is gone and the first step of a rebuild is to sell everything with a pulse that has value. Beal has the most value on this team, but the salary is he’s for most to match. SGs are hard to move sometimes, but Beal has shown to be a “do it all” type of guard. A team that can match the salary and offer some relief could be the Lakers, but they don’t really need him. It’s hard to find a fit, which may be why he hasn’t been moved, but he could be the best player on the move.
G-Man: I'm sure we all have some insider information on this question, and I'd rather take a wild guess than give anything away. I don't think we're going to see two game-changing moves. I'll wildly swing and say Thomas Robinson gets moved to the Hawks for Tyreke Evans, Roger Worthy, and points because why not.
Q-Man: Buddy Pedraza. I have a feeling he's gone. Not sure where, but I know RPF is ready to move on and that he's made him readily available. Murmurs around the league are that there may be a deal in place, but nothing has been confirmed. There are quite a few suitors that could use his services in each conference, and I would be VERY surprised to see him on the Nets roster come Feb 16th. My guess is either the Lakers, Magic, or... dark horse... Bucks.
Syndicate: How about Jrue Holiday? He's been on the block forever, maybe the Nuggets will finally move him? Speaking of which, any offers out there? Outside of that, I'll actually say that no real impact players get moved today. Minor deals only. Trade DUDline.
*Editors note - I think it's hilarious that GM BsH refers to him as Pedroza, but I corrected spelling for purposes of professionalism.