2021 - The Year the Torch was Passed
Posted: Thu Jul 05, 2018 3:50 pm
As I was reflecting on the All-Star rosters (and by "reflecting" I mean "tallying up 2 points for having an All-Star") something struck me. It's a watershed moment in the league. The torch has been passed.
Looking over the all-star rosters again, it was even more obvious. The day of the "NBA player" is rapidly drawing to a close; the "collegiate players" generated by FBCB are taking over the league. The first "non-NBA" players were drafted in 2014, which means they are now in their 7th seasons - plenty of time to grow into their talents, and the all-star rosters reflect that. For the first time, "collegiate players" outnumbered the "NBA players", 13 to 11. Six of the ten starters weren't NBA players. I thought this made for an interesting opportunity to reflect on the NBA greybeards that are still making All-Star games and try to project how much time they have left.
C Al Horford (Rockets)
Horford seems to have been agelessly defying Training Camp forever, and remains an exceptionally well-rounded Center. However, his stats are doubtless helped by the fact that the Rockets rely heavily on their veterans and it seems a good bet that eventually Father Time will catch up to him or he'll be moved to a team where his skill set isn't featured as much as it is in Houston. Greg Monroe was the first-team all-league center just two seasons ago, and now he's not even on the all-star squad after moving to the Lakers. I think Horford may have one more year at an all-star level, but it's clear his time in the sun is just about done.
PF Kevin Love (Suns)
Love has been the straw that stirs the drink in Phoenix for 14 years, and you have to think they're going to ride him into the ground. The team will be built around Love until he can't carry things any more and even though his athleticism is starting to decline, his incredible skill in scoring, shooting, and rebounding, means he's going to stay around for at least another contract. Kevin is currently 5th on the all-time scoring list and is probably going to overtake Shawn Kemp and Tracy McGrady next season. Joseph Kight had a nice run last year but his numbers have dropped off a little bit this season, so it's hard to see where a challenger - at least in the West - to Love's All-Star slot is going to come from.
C Enes Kanter (Warriors)
He's been a solid big for a long time, and this is his first - and probably last - all star selection. He's about to turn 30, and his numbers are a bit underwhelming for an all-star - and BowtotheBill knows how to feature Centers (don't forget, Jay Adkins was an all-star a couple of years ago). Kanter might sneak in one more nod, but let's face it, he's not exactly an all-star icon.
SF Giannis Antetokounmpo (Warriors)
Giannis is 27 - just entering his prime - and was an all-star last year as well, after finally getting some TC insurance protection instead of letting his potentials get rocked year after year. He might have been here quicker had he been insured earlier in this career, so his stay at this level may be abbreviated, but I think he's probably got another 2 to 3 years in him.
SG Kyrie Irving (Kings)
A fixture in the All-Star game whose numbers have taken a hit this season because he's surrounded with young teammates that are coming into their own. Irving is 29 years old and the good news is his game doesn't seem to rely on his athleticism but on his skill, so I think we can safely assume another couple of years at this level are coming from Kyrie.
PG John Wall (Clippers)
Another all-star fixture, Wall is 31 but is still putting up good efficiency numbers. He's a guy I would watch because a single big athleticism hit in TC could knock his game from all-star level. Instead of "day-to-day" put him as year-to-year. I don't expect he'll be pushed out next season, but it wouldn't shock me either. He's getting the benefit of posting a lot of empty stats on a bad team.
PG James Harden (Warriors)
His PER is starting to take a dip, he's 32, and the hits to athleticism are coming. Harden's field goal percentage is down a LOT the last three seasons and at some point that's going to start hurting. I think he's helped being in the West where the competition is a little weaker, and we'll see if he's able to keep up the production for another year when there are a lot of good guards coming for his spot. I was surprised he made it this season, and I'll be surprised if this isn't his All-Star swan song.
C Nikola Jokic (Knicks)
Ask yourself - are there any other centers in the East who even approach his potential skill set? Nope. He's 27, he's good now, and he still has room to grow. He'll probably be the second-to-last NBA'er to exit the all-star stage, because I expect all-star level production from him for at least 5 or 6 more seasons. The only guy NBA'er with a better future than Jokic is...
PF Anthony Davis (Pistons)
Duh. Dude is in his prime and has been destroying the league for almost 8 seasons now. He was good really early which means he'll be good really late - look for Kevin Love levels of longevity, which means we're looking at probably another 7 to 8 seasons of this. He'll be the last NBA'er in the All-Star game and could even still be making the team 10 seasons from now barring a couple of broken legs.
SF Kevin Durant (Bobcats)
Has a green light to put up huge numbers on a bad team, and at the age of 33, the TC hits will keep coming. If Durant is still on a bad team next year, he MIGHT put up the numbers to keep himself an all-star (for an incredible 16th time), but the league's all-time leading scorer is coming to the end of his career rapidly. 40,000 points is all he has left to play for at this stage in his career, and with that bloated salary, he'll get playing time next year out of necessity... but he'll be in a reserve role at best in two seasons after that team option gets declined and when that happens, no more all-star games.
Looking over the all-star rosters again, it was even more obvious. The day of the "NBA player" is rapidly drawing to a close; the "collegiate players" generated by FBCB are taking over the league. The first "non-NBA" players were drafted in 2014, which means they are now in their 7th seasons - plenty of time to grow into their talents, and the all-star rosters reflect that. For the first time, "collegiate players" outnumbered the "NBA players", 13 to 11. Six of the ten starters weren't NBA players. I thought this made for an interesting opportunity to reflect on the NBA greybeards that are still making All-Star games and try to project how much time they have left.
C Al Horford (Rockets)
Horford seems to have been agelessly defying Training Camp forever, and remains an exceptionally well-rounded Center. However, his stats are doubtless helped by the fact that the Rockets rely heavily on their veterans and it seems a good bet that eventually Father Time will catch up to him or he'll be moved to a team where his skill set isn't featured as much as it is in Houston. Greg Monroe was the first-team all-league center just two seasons ago, and now he's not even on the all-star squad after moving to the Lakers. I think Horford may have one more year at an all-star level, but it's clear his time in the sun is just about done.
PF Kevin Love (Suns)
Love has been the straw that stirs the drink in Phoenix for 14 years, and you have to think they're going to ride him into the ground. The team will be built around Love until he can't carry things any more and even though his athleticism is starting to decline, his incredible skill in scoring, shooting, and rebounding, means he's going to stay around for at least another contract. Kevin is currently 5th on the all-time scoring list and is probably going to overtake Shawn Kemp and Tracy McGrady next season. Joseph Kight had a nice run last year but his numbers have dropped off a little bit this season, so it's hard to see where a challenger - at least in the West - to Love's All-Star slot is going to come from.
C Enes Kanter (Warriors)
He's been a solid big for a long time, and this is his first - and probably last - all star selection. He's about to turn 30, and his numbers are a bit underwhelming for an all-star - and BowtotheBill knows how to feature Centers (don't forget, Jay Adkins was an all-star a couple of years ago). Kanter might sneak in one more nod, but let's face it, he's not exactly an all-star icon.
SF Giannis Antetokounmpo (Warriors)
Giannis is 27 - just entering his prime - and was an all-star last year as well, after finally getting some TC insurance protection instead of letting his potentials get rocked year after year. He might have been here quicker had he been insured earlier in this career, so his stay at this level may be abbreviated, but I think he's probably got another 2 to 3 years in him.
SG Kyrie Irving (Kings)
A fixture in the All-Star game whose numbers have taken a hit this season because he's surrounded with young teammates that are coming into their own. Irving is 29 years old and the good news is his game doesn't seem to rely on his athleticism but on his skill, so I think we can safely assume another couple of years at this level are coming from Kyrie.
PG John Wall (Clippers)
Another all-star fixture, Wall is 31 but is still putting up good efficiency numbers. He's a guy I would watch because a single big athleticism hit in TC could knock his game from all-star level. Instead of "day-to-day" put him as year-to-year. I don't expect he'll be pushed out next season, but it wouldn't shock me either. He's getting the benefit of posting a lot of empty stats on a bad team.
PG James Harden (Warriors)
His PER is starting to take a dip, he's 32, and the hits to athleticism are coming. Harden's field goal percentage is down a LOT the last three seasons and at some point that's going to start hurting. I think he's helped being in the West where the competition is a little weaker, and we'll see if he's able to keep up the production for another year when there are a lot of good guards coming for his spot. I was surprised he made it this season, and I'll be surprised if this isn't his All-Star swan song.
C Nikola Jokic (Knicks)
Ask yourself - are there any other centers in the East who even approach his potential skill set? Nope. He's 27, he's good now, and he still has room to grow. He'll probably be the second-to-last NBA'er to exit the all-star stage, because I expect all-star level production from him for at least 5 or 6 more seasons. The only guy NBA'er with a better future than Jokic is...
PF Anthony Davis (Pistons)
Duh. Dude is in his prime and has been destroying the league for almost 8 seasons now. He was good really early which means he'll be good really late - look for Kevin Love levels of longevity, which means we're looking at probably another 7 to 8 seasons of this. He'll be the last NBA'er in the All-Star game and could even still be making the team 10 seasons from now barring a couple of broken legs.
SF Kevin Durant (Bobcats)
Has a green light to put up huge numbers on a bad team, and at the age of 33, the TC hits will keep coming. If Durant is still on a bad team next year, he MIGHT put up the numbers to keep himself an all-star (for an incredible 16th time), but the league's all-time leading scorer is coming to the end of his career rapidly. 40,000 points is all he has left to play for at this stage in his career, and with that bloated salary, he'll get playing time next year out of necessity... but he'll be in a reserve role at best in two seasons after that team option gets declined and when that happens, no more all-star games.