Early Exits; What's Next?
Posted: Thu May 24, 2018 6:39 pm
The first round is complete and the winners are advancing, hoping to prolong their life in the playoffs just a little bit longer. Unfortunately, the sun has set on 8 hopefuls looking to quench their championship aspirations or play spoiler to a favorite. In this article, I want to look prospectively into the future of those 8 that were sent home packing early.
Houston Rockets
The Rockets came into the playoffs riding a huge high of winning the division for the 3rd time in 78’s career. After acquiring Isiah Thomas and Draymond Green to team up with Al Horford and Ty Lawson, the biggest question of the season was “How are the Rockets overachieving?” Unfortunately, the season ended in 7 games against the Warriors who moved Paul George and Gordon Hayward into the backcourt to make up for the absence of Marcus Smart.
Looking into the finances of this team for next season, there is not much cap flexibility with Thomas, Draymond and Horford eating most of it. The team will start under the salary cap, but just barely. Ty Lawson will hit the UFA market this offseason, and at the age of 34 it is uncertain if 78 will attempt to bring back Lawson with Thomas guaranteed one more year on the roster. The good news is the Rockets were not in the tax and can afford to spend if they wanted to perform one last swan song for Horford, but it will be tough to pull off.
New York Knicks
Hands down the most disappointing story of the season due to injuries derailing a potentially great team that was rivaling the Bulls. On January 22, 2021, the Knicks were riding a 29-8 record and cruising to another win, but then Gary Harris went down and would miss all of February. On Valentines Day, the hearts of Knicks fans across the world would break when Jokic suffered a brutal concussion that forced him to miss the rest of the season. Harris came back and formed a deadly duo with John Wall, but their lead in the Atlantic slowly eroded and gave way to the 76ers. In the end, the team was forced to matchup against the Detroit Pistons in the playoffs, and Anthony Davis was allowed to exploit the absence of Jokic.
It was a season of early fortunes and late tragedies to a franchise that is not unfamiliar to injuries. Not all hope is lost, however, because the team when healthy was great. The trade for John Wall helped the team to shoot more open shots, with Harris and Jokic shooting career highs in FG% and 3P%. The team brings back its core except for the contingency of Jokic’s player option. If Jokic accepts, the Knicks are set with their 3 top guys and can run it back again as potential favorites in the East. If Jokic doesn’t, the Knicks have to supermax him. The team is over the projected cap even if Jokic accepts his player option, so I don’t think the decline or accept will impact the Kincks’ UFA plans, but it will definitely put the team into the tax with not a lot of room to maneuver if they want to fill the team out. Does Inner GI feel this team, if healthy, can win a championship next season? With Harris and Jokic still having room to grow, I feel this team can.
Phoenix Suns
The Suns played a hard fought series but ultimately lost to the young and rising Utah Jazz. This Suns team lacked the ability to drown their opponents from the 3-point arc like they had last year with Love, Harden and Riordan. The team is talented, but for most of the season the Suns were running with 3 true PGs playing at the same time. It was until the Victor Oladipo trade that the Suns balanced themselves out and strung together 14 wins in a row close to the end of the season. Kevin Love looks to be slowing down some despite his amazing attribute ratings, and while this was not his swan song, we have to wonder how much longer can Love can carry the Suns in a competitive series.
As always with Gmessi, he always keeps salaries flexible, and next offseason will be the same. With about $66M tied to committed salaries, mainly to Love and Thomas Robinson, the Suns are able to swing big in UFA, RFA, or even in the trade market like they’ve done when acquiring Harden a in the prior season. Love’s contract will expire after next season, so a storyline to watch will be if GMessi decides he has earned enough points and rings with Love and trade him away for youth. If you think that’s crazy, keep in mind the Suns have a point bank that would make the Iron Bank blush. If the Suns could grab two solid young prospects with those points, he’ll only need two or three seasons of paid training to turn them into All NBA players.
Washington Wizards
The Wizards almost did it again, but were stymied by…. Aaron Donald? Never mind, this isn’t a Hawks writeup. Without Lillard, I don’t think many GMs felt he Wizards posed a serious threat to the Hawks, but the Wizards have a group of versatile players that can play multiple positions, which is frustrating to gameplan against. A fun fact I noticed is that the Wizards lost 3 of their 4 games by scoring 102 points. Against the Hawks, you need to be able to score more than that no matter how well your defense plays.
The Wizards enter into the offseason with very little wiggle room to take in salary before RFA, and once RFA hits, DiAngelo Russell is projected to receive a max, causing the Wizards to stare into a possible sizable tax bill if they make no other moves. The good news is they bring back all their core guys and have Russell’s rights to match any contract. Does X1st believe this team, with another season of training camp, can compete for the Atlantic division? They were close and gave the Hawks a run for their money this season, but with a sizable amount of salary already committed to, there’s not a lot of flexibility in the free agency market for the Wizards. Be on the lookout for one of X2st’s patented trades that seem small but payoff bigger dividends than expected.
Dallas Mavericks
New GM letsplayhorse had a great first year while dealing with small injuries to Bradley Beal and Hassan Whiteside. In early March, the Mavs were holding a 37-23 record and were pushing the Rockets for the division, making 78 sweat some while dealing with his own injuries. Unexpectedly, the Mavs dropped hard, ending the season with a 43-39 record, good for a 6-16 finish to end the season. I’m not sure if anyone knows what happened, because the losing streak started before Whiteside’s injury, but it certainly wasn’t helped by it later in the season either. After a year of competitive play, it will be interesting to see how much this season helped in the upcoming seasons for the new GM.
Unfortunately, horse joined after the offseason had pretty much ended and does not have much experience in this league with RFA and UFA, which may end up being a factor for him. Hassan Whiteside is off the books going into the offseason, and Jason Fisher will be an RFA. While Fisher is not a max-level player, it will be interesting to see if any team really likes his outside scoring and athleticism enough to put the new GM in a tough bind in his first offseason. Besides that, the Mavs should have a healthy amount of cash to spend. How it will be spent is uncertain. Will the Mavs attempt to re-sign Whiteside, or go a different direction? Bradley Beal is still under contract for four more seasons, so the Mavs have time, but without their first round pick in the 2022 draft, will this offseason be a swing and miss that helps out another GM?
Milwaukee Bucks
It wasn't exactly a banner year for the Bucks. Personally speaking, the Bucks vs 76ers matchup was a dream come true, until it was revealed that McNary suffered a broken leg. With a collection of youth and Kanter, Quailman fought valiantly after dropping to a 0-3 deficit against the 76ers and won two games in a row before ultimately losing in Game 6. The Bucks throughout the season were inconsistent, and made yet another infamous trade-back to move Saric and reacquire Payton, which really did work out for the best this season. The bad news is the inconsistency never went away and the injury to their best player really took the Bucks out of any sort of contention talk. The good news is that the young prospects really looked great, especially rookie Devin Booker.
I won’t pretend to even know what the Bucks will do this offseason, because GM Quailman is an active trader that I feel hasn’t found the right type of team build he could stick with for multiple seasons. However, there’s a lot of potential on this team already. The Bucks will be pressed against the salary cap if Payton accepts his player option, and Ronald Small will hit RFA. Unless Quail makes trades to clear salary, he won’t have much flexibility in UFA to make additions. Unlike other teams previously mentioned, this shouldn’t hurt the Bucks much, as the team they have are still so young that another solid training camp will make this team much better just from natural growth alone. Ronald Small and Devin Booker seem to be a great duo in the backcourt, and a healthy McNary showed the league last season he can be an All NBA player. Russell Arciniega was a pleasant surprise for the Bucks and looks to be a contributor. If I had to put money on one player who won’t be wearing a Bucks uniform on opening day next season, it’s definitely Kanter.
Portland Trailblazers
Another team decimated by injuries by the time the playoffs began, the Portland Trailblazers were not smiled upon the sim gawds when Derrick Rose got hurt and drew the matchup against the Denver Nuggets. The Derrick Rose injury was brutal, as this could have very well been the last season on the Blazers for him and Father Time has been knocking on his door for a while. The Blazers, much like the Bucks, were very inconsistent this season and really struggled on the road. Unfortunately, injuries and running into a nearly unstoppable team spelled “doom” from the start of the playoffs.
Going into the offseason, the Trailblazers have options, which is great to have. Derrick Rose and Jeremy Lamb’s contracts fall off the books and will have a lot of money to spend, maybe even two max contracts worth of space dependent on player year experience. They also have all of their picks, which gives them flexibility to entertain the idea of a rebuild if GM ku feels it’s time. With Lavar Ball and Kenneth Faried coming back, the Blazers have the option of going all in on RFA and UFA with hopes of surrounding these two with talent. If all else fails with no big signing and with their picks, they could then entertain the prospect of trading Lavar and Faried. Lavar is a really good player who is still growing, but what ku has to decide is if Lavar is a player worth building around. An interesting stat I saw is that in 362 regular season games and 19 total playoff games, Lavar has only been named the Player of the Game 21 times. He’s had two seasons where he’s scored 21+ ppg and shoots efficiently, so talent is not being questioned. However, is he just a #2 option?
Boston Celtics
This team oozes potential, but in the playoffs it’s about what you can do now. Unfortunately, the Celtics ran into the best team in the league with a team that looks about 4 years away from making serious noise. Surprisingly, the Celtics actually gave the Bulls fits. The series closes in 5, about what was expected, but it was the manner in which Tyler Ulis absolutely put Dennis Smith Jr. on skates the whole series. Ulis is a star, or at least will be one. Everyone else on the team has some catching up to do.
The Celtics will enter the offseason with plenty of money and former #1 pick Karl Anthony Towns in RFA. The Celtics are likely going to have to match a max for KAT, and I’m not entirely sold he’s living up to the potential we thought he had coming into the league. In four seasons, no stat has dramatically improved like we are used to seeing, and a PER of 14.9 this season was disappointing. However, you can’t let this guy go for free or even lesser value. After making the playoffs this season and salary to spend, the Celtics are in prime position to catapult themselves into the thick of the Eastern Conference race if they are able to sign one or two guys that can contribute or even be the new #1 option to take the load off of Ulis. This team is going to be talented, but you have to wonder how long it will take when Conroy is able to reap the rewards. And if the wait is too long, there won’t be many prime years to take advantage of. Will the Celtics bring back Rudy Gobert, a defensive monster nearing the latter years of his prime, or will they attempt to sign younger players to allow them to grow his already young team?
Houston Rockets
The Rockets came into the playoffs riding a huge high of winning the division for the 3rd time in 78’s career. After acquiring Isiah Thomas and Draymond Green to team up with Al Horford and Ty Lawson, the biggest question of the season was “How are the Rockets overachieving?” Unfortunately, the season ended in 7 games against the Warriors who moved Paul George and Gordon Hayward into the backcourt to make up for the absence of Marcus Smart.
Looking into the finances of this team for next season, there is not much cap flexibility with Thomas, Draymond and Horford eating most of it. The team will start under the salary cap, but just barely. Ty Lawson will hit the UFA market this offseason, and at the age of 34 it is uncertain if 78 will attempt to bring back Lawson with Thomas guaranteed one more year on the roster. The good news is the Rockets were not in the tax and can afford to spend if they wanted to perform one last swan song for Horford, but it will be tough to pull off.
New York Knicks
Hands down the most disappointing story of the season due to injuries derailing a potentially great team that was rivaling the Bulls. On January 22, 2021, the Knicks were riding a 29-8 record and cruising to another win, but then Gary Harris went down and would miss all of February. On Valentines Day, the hearts of Knicks fans across the world would break when Jokic suffered a brutal concussion that forced him to miss the rest of the season. Harris came back and formed a deadly duo with John Wall, but their lead in the Atlantic slowly eroded and gave way to the 76ers. In the end, the team was forced to matchup against the Detroit Pistons in the playoffs, and Anthony Davis was allowed to exploit the absence of Jokic.
It was a season of early fortunes and late tragedies to a franchise that is not unfamiliar to injuries. Not all hope is lost, however, because the team when healthy was great. The trade for John Wall helped the team to shoot more open shots, with Harris and Jokic shooting career highs in FG% and 3P%. The team brings back its core except for the contingency of Jokic’s player option. If Jokic accepts, the Knicks are set with their 3 top guys and can run it back again as potential favorites in the East. If Jokic doesn’t, the Knicks have to supermax him. The team is over the projected cap even if Jokic accepts his player option, so I don’t think the decline or accept will impact the Kincks’ UFA plans, but it will definitely put the team into the tax with not a lot of room to maneuver if they want to fill the team out. Does Inner GI feel this team, if healthy, can win a championship next season? With Harris and Jokic still having room to grow, I feel this team can.
Phoenix Suns
The Suns played a hard fought series but ultimately lost to the young and rising Utah Jazz. This Suns team lacked the ability to drown their opponents from the 3-point arc like they had last year with Love, Harden and Riordan. The team is talented, but for most of the season the Suns were running with 3 true PGs playing at the same time. It was until the Victor Oladipo trade that the Suns balanced themselves out and strung together 14 wins in a row close to the end of the season. Kevin Love looks to be slowing down some despite his amazing attribute ratings, and while this was not his swan song, we have to wonder how much longer can Love can carry the Suns in a competitive series.
As always with Gmessi, he always keeps salaries flexible, and next offseason will be the same. With about $66M tied to committed salaries, mainly to Love and Thomas Robinson, the Suns are able to swing big in UFA, RFA, or even in the trade market like they’ve done when acquiring Harden a in the prior season. Love’s contract will expire after next season, so a storyline to watch will be if GMessi decides he has earned enough points and rings with Love and trade him away for youth. If you think that’s crazy, keep in mind the Suns have a point bank that would make the Iron Bank blush. If the Suns could grab two solid young prospects with those points, he’ll only need two or three seasons of paid training to turn them into All NBA players.
Washington Wizards
The Wizards almost did it again, but were stymied by…. Aaron Donald? Never mind, this isn’t a Hawks writeup. Without Lillard, I don’t think many GMs felt he Wizards posed a serious threat to the Hawks, but the Wizards have a group of versatile players that can play multiple positions, which is frustrating to gameplan against. A fun fact I noticed is that the Wizards lost 3 of their 4 games by scoring 102 points. Against the Hawks, you need to be able to score more than that no matter how well your defense plays.
The Wizards enter into the offseason with very little wiggle room to take in salary before RFA, and once RFA hits, DiAngelo Russell is projected to receive a max, causing the Wizards to stare into a possible sizable tax bill if they make no other moves. The good news is they bring back all their core guys and have Russell’s rights to match any contract. Does X1st believe this team, with another season of training camp, can compete for the Atlantic division? They were close and gave the Hawks a run for their money this season, but with a sizable amount of salary already committed to, there’s not a lot of flexibility in the free agency market for the Wizards. Be on the lookout for one of X2st’s patented trades that seem small but payoff bigger dividends than expected.
Dallas Mavericks
New GM letsplayhorse had a great first year while dealing with small injuries to Bradley Beal and Hassan Whiteside. In early March, the Mavs were holding a 37-23 record and were pushing the Rockets for the division, making 78 sweat some while dealing with his own injuries. Unexpectedly, the Mavs dropped hard, ending the season with a 43-39 record, good for a 6-16 finish to end the season. I’m not sure if anyone knows what happened, because the losing streak started before Whiteside’s injury, but it certainly wasn’t helped by it later in the season either. After a year of competitive play, it will be interesting to see how much this season helped in the upcoming seasons for the new GM.
Unfortunately, horse joined after the offseason had pretty much ended and does not have much experience in this league with RFA and UFA, which may end up being a factor for him. Hassan Whiteside is off the books going into the offseason, and Jason Fisher will be an RFA. While Fisher is not a max-level player, it will be interesting to see if any team really likes his outside scoring and athleticism enough to put the new GM in a tough bind in his first offseason. Besides that, the Mavs should have a healthy amount of cash to spend. How it will be spent is uncertain. Will the Mavs attempt to re-sign Whiteside, or go a different direction? Bradley Beal is still under contract for four more seasons, so the Mavs have time, but without their first round pick in the 2022 draft, will this offseason be a swing and miss that helps out another GM?
Milwaukee Bucks
It wasn't exactly a banner year for the Bucks. Personally speaking, the Bucks vs 76ers matchup was a dream come true, until it was revealed that McNary suffered a broken leg. With a collection of youth and Kanter, Quailman fought valiantly after dropping to a 0-3 deficit against the 76ers and won two games in a row before ultimately losing in Game 6. The Bucks throughout the season were inconsistent, and made yet another infamous trade-back to move Saric and reacquire Payton, which really did work out for the best this season. The bad news is the inconsistency never went away and the injury to their best player really took the Bucks out of any sort of contention talk. The good news is that the young prospects really looked great, especially rookie Devin Booker.
I won’t pretend to even know what the Bucks will do this offseason, because GM Quailman is an active trader that I feel hasn’t found the right type of team build he could stick with for multiple seasons. However, there’s a lot of potential on this team already. The Bucks will be pressed against the salary cap if Payton accepts his player option, and Ronald Small will hit RFA. Unless Quail makes trades to clear salary, he won’t have much flexibility in UFA to make additions. Unlike other teams previously mentioned, this shouldn’t hurt the Bucks much, as the team they have are still so young that another solid training camp will make this team much better just from natural growth alone. Ronald Small and Devin Booker seem to be a great duo in the backcourt, and a healthy McNary showed the league last season he can be an All NBA player. Russell Arciniega was a pleasant surprise for the Bucks and looks to be a contributor. If I had to put money on one player who won’t be wearing a Bucks uniform on opening day next season, it’s definitely Kanter.
Portland Trailblazers
Another team decimated by injuries by the time the playoffs began, the Portland Trailblazers were not smiled upon the sim gawds when Derrick Rose got hurt and drew the matchup against the Denver Nuggets. The Derrick Rose injury was brutal, as this could have very well been the last season on the Blazers for him and Father Time has been knocking on his door for a while. The Blazers, much like the Bucks, were very inconsistent this season and really struggled on the road. Unfortunately, injuries and running into a nearly unstoppable team spelled “doom” from the start of the playoffs.
Going into the offseason, the Trailblazers have options, which is great to have. Derrick Rose and Jeremy Lamb’s contracts fall off the books and will have a lot of money to spend, maybe even two max contracts worth of space dependent on player year experience. They also have all of their picks, which gives them flexibility to entertain the idea of a rebuild if GM ku feels it’s time. With Lavar Ball and Kenneth Faried coming back, the Blazers have the option of going all in on RFA and UFA with hopes of surrounding these two with talent. If all else fails with no big signing and with their picks, they could then entertain the prospect of trading Lavar and Faried. Lavar is a really good player who is still growing, but what ku has to decide is if Lavar is a player worth building around. An interesting stat I saw is that in 362 regular season games and 19 total playoff games, Lavar has only been named the Player of the Game 21 times. He’s had two seasons where he’s scored 21+ ppg and shoots efficiently, so talent is not being questioned. However, is he just a #2 option?
Boston Celtics
This team oozes potential, but in the playoffs it’s about what you can do now. Unfortunately, the Celtics ran into the best team in the league with a team that looks about 4 years away from making serious noise. Surprisingly, the Celtics actually gave the Bulls fits. The series closes in 5, about what was expected, but it was the manner in which Tyler Ulis absolutely put Dennis Smith Jr. on skates the whole series. Ulis is a star, or at least will be one. Everyone else on the team has some catching up to do.
The Celtics will enter the offseason with plenty of money and former #1 pick Karl Anthony Towns in RFA. The Celtics are likely going to have to match a max for KAT, and I’m not entirely sold he’s living up to the potential we thought he had coming into the league. In four seasons, no stat has dramatically improved like we are used to seeing, and a PER of 14.9 this season was disappointing. However, you can’t let this guy go for free or even lesser value. After making the playoffs this season and salary to spend, the Celtics are in prime position to catapult themselves into the thick of the Eastern Conference race if they are able to sign one or two guys that can contribute or even be the new #1 option to take the load off of Ulis. This team is going to be talented, but you have to wonder how long it will take when Conroy is able to reap the rewards. And if the wait is too long, there won’t be many prime years to take advantage of. Will the Celtics bring back Rudy Gobert, a defensive monster nearing the latter years of his prime, or will they attempt to sign younger players to allow them to grow his already young team?