Re-drafting the 2017 draft class (or, prepping for RFA)
Posted: Wed May 16, 2018 3:42 pm
As we get ready to wind down the end of the season, and players drafted in 2017 get ready to hit Free Agency, I thought it would be interesting to see who the hot RFAs will be by looking at their productivity this season and setting them up as a re-draft based on productivity. I have my own system for rating productivity that is somewhat comparable to PER; the rating after the player is pretty much a straight "higher is better" rating.
#1 - CELTICS (Original Pick: Karl-Anthony Towns) - Joseph Kight - 37.8
KAT has been a solid pick who has produced fairly consistently since his rookie season but who has never really "popped" statistically. Kight, on the other hand, may have been the #11 pick in the actual draft but he looks like the best player to come out of his draft class - and he took a huge jump this season as his shooting has gone from slightly below average to excellent; this has carried his scoring average up to 27.5 points per game. In addition, he has become a shot-blocking force since moving to PF this season. His productivity is well ahead of everyone else's. He's a sure max or super-max.
#2 - JAZZ (Original Pick: DeSean Hawkins) - Markelle Fultz - 28.9
Hawkins has finally started to show flashes this season of the reasons he was taken #2, but this was Fultz's coming out season as well, and he's performing better in almost every way than Hawkins. Fultz may not be the ideal passing point guard, but he's an excellent scoring guard who is very good defensively and is an excellent scorer as well. There may be a big gap between Kight and Fultz, but there's almost as big a gap between Fultz and the rest of the class, making him the clear-cut #2. This is another player who you expect to get a max or supermax.
#3 - TRAILBLAZERS (Original Pick: Ronald Small) - Karl-Anthony Towns - 22.6
So in the original draft, Small went #3 and while he's still quite productive, my method has KAT rated slightly better. There's not a huge gap between picks 3 and 8 here and so I don't think you'd be upset with the original pick of Small versus Towns. Perhaps it's KAT's undersized-ness as a big that has kept him from making a bigger leap. Is he a max contract? Someone's probably going to pay him max money, and it only takes one.
#4 - CELTICS (Original Pick: DAngelo Russell) - DeSean Hawkins - 22.1
Hawkins was the original #2 pick and in a re-draft I think he'd probably go #4. Again, he's only marginally better than Russell but my method does show he's having a slightly more productive season, so he gets slotted here. Russell and Hawkins are pretty interchangeable, though. Hawkins with his athleticism is likely to get a max contract as well.
#5 - JAZZ (Original Pick: Robert Neeley) - John Hagerman - 21.4
Hagerman's productivity is, I think, the product of getting minutes on a bad team, so I think this is a little bit of fool's gold having Hagerman so high. Still, he was picked #6 in the original draft, so you could even say he's overachieving this season. The yellow/yellow color ratings may scare teams off from giving him a big contract, which means it may be possible for a team to get a very solid contributor on a very modest contract. It's these kinds of overlooked players that can make or break a team.
#6 - MAVERICKS (Original Pick: John Hagerman) - D'Angelo Russell - 21.3
Again, Russell is in the cluster of players between picks 3 and 8; he's finally getting the minutes this season and given the Wizards' rise in the Southeast this season, you have to figure Russell is a part of their plans going forward. In the redraft he's only getting edged out by fractions of a rating point, to it's not like he was over-drafted.
#7 - HAWKS (Original Pick: Kenneth Williams) - Ronald Small - 20.5
So this original pick was an unmitigated disaster for the Hawks - Kenneth Williams was so bad he is now out of the league (getting slapped down by TC hasn't helped). Ronald Small is another guy who's kind of blooming into his potential this season but since he hasn't fully popped I think he's going to be a hard player to value - his potentials suggest "max" but he's still not producing at a max level so you have to kind of take a leap of faith to give him that kind of money.
#8 - LAKERS (Original Pick: Tristan Bosworth) - Jason Fisher - 20.4
Fisher has turned himself into a solid scorer and a decent backcourt rebounder but seems to be getting close to his ceiling. Since this article is looking at how players are performing now, he rates relatively highly but think he's probably the point on this list where teams will be unwilling to send out max contracts in RFA.
#9 - 76ERS (Original Pick: Markelle Fultz) - #15 - Keith Pfeffer (Timberwolves) - 18.4
Pfeffer, much like Fisher, has shown himself to be a decent scorer and rebounder but also has a nice passing touch. He's still got a little room to grow, but the ceiling here is probably not much bigger than we're seeing now. This is also the point of the draft where you start seeing a fairly noticeable jump player to player as you work your way down.
#10 - RAPTORS (Original Pick: Brett Lopez) - Lawrence Arbogast - 17.3
Arbogast is kind of a jack-of-all trades, master of none. I think he might be posting slightly inflated numbers on a Pelicans team that doesn't seem sure if it's trying to tank or trying to compete. I don't think he's a foundational piece for them so he's probably gettable if you overpay in RFA.
#11 - JAZZ (Original Pick: Joseph Kight) - Robert Neeley - 16.4
Neeley took TC hits, which is why he crashed down from his original #5 spot to here. I think it's interesting to see that the Jazz are still starting him but his minutes have been reduced every year, which suggests he's not part of the Jazz' long term plans and is another guy you can probably pick up in RFA if the price is right.
#12 - KINGS (Original Pick: Tyron Ferris) - Jerrod Stepp - 15.3
Stepp took a TC hit, then got a TC bump to get most of his potentials back but even at his best I don't think he ever projected as anything more than a mediocre center. He is another case of a guy putting up stats on a bad team to bring himself up the list, but I don't expect teams to be knocking his door down to sign him in RFA.
#13 - RAPTORS (Original Pick: Roscoe Diggs) - Tristan Bosworth - 14.7
Diggs was another bad pick who is out of the league. In a re-draft, you get Tristan Bosworth here toward the end of the lottery. Bosworth's probably a starting PG on a bad team and a backup PG on even a decent team. The Lakers have enough talent to lose him, so I expect him to change addresses this RFA season.
#14 - BUCKS (Original Pick: Jose Jumper) - Jose Jumper - 12.0
Jose comes in as the only player who rates exactly at his draft position. He's getting spot starts in Denver and have carved a nice little niche as an off-the bench scorer (7.9 points in 16.5 minutes). Ryan is probably hoping he gets overlooked in RFA, but he could be an interesting offensive option for a team tha tneeds interior bulk.
END OF THE LOTTERY
After the lottery, we're rather scraping the bottom of the barrel. These players are generally not getting much, if any playing time. The only notable thing here is that George Langevin would have wound up the 21st pick in a re-do instead of the #39 pick. But he's not entering RFA anyway, so no need to get too worked up about him. I'll be shocked if these players wind up with more than a vet min contract and depending on the cap situation of the incumbent teams, you may not even see these guys have their RFA rights exercised... meaning we may have a pretty thin RFA class this season.
#15 - HEAT (Original Pick: Keith Pfeffer) - Wilbert Paschall - 11.3
#16 - CELTICS (Original Pick: Jason Fisher) - William Garrard -11.0
#17 - CAVALIERS (Original Pick: Boyd Session) - Pierre Sory - 10.7
#18 - TRAILBLAZERS (Original Pick: Lawrence Arbogast) - Brett Lopez - 9.9
#19 - HAWKS (Original Pick: William Garrard) - Arthur Parish - 9.4
#20 - LAKERS (Original Pick: Dario Wells) - Duane Baineaux - 9.3
#21 - PISTONS (Original Pick: Jerrod Stepp) - George Langevin - 7.1
#22 - PACERS (Original Pick: Gerard Saleh) - Don Gray - 6.7
#23 - HAWKS (Original Pick: Arthur Parish) - Boyd Session - 2.8
#24 - WARRIORS (Original Pick: Mel Mock) - Tyron Ferris - 2.7
...and beyond this point, nobody is producing enough to be worth mentioning in a redraft analysis, so we're going to call it a wrap here.
#1 - CELTICS (Original Pick: Karl-Anthony Towns) - Joseph Kight - 37.8
KAT has been a solid pick who has produced fairly consistently since his rookie season but who has never really "popped" statistically. Kight, on the other hand, may have been the #11 pick in the actual draft but he looks like the best player to come out of his draft class - and he took a huge jump this season as his shooting has gone from slightly below average to excellent; this has carried his scoring average up to 27.5 points per game. In addition, he has become a shot-blocking force since moving to PF this season. His productivity is well ahead of everyone else's. He's a sure max or super-max.
#2 - JAZZ (Original Pick: DeSean Hawkins) - Markelle Fultz - 28.9
Hawkins has finally started to show flashes this season of the reasons he was taken #2, but this was Fultz's coming out season as well, and he's performing better in almost every way than Hawkins. Fultz may not be the ideal passing point guard, but he's an excellent scoring guard who is very good defensively and is an excellent scorer as well. There may be a big gap between Kight and Fultz, but there's almost as big a gap between Fultz and the rest of the class, making him the clear-cut #2. This is another player who you expect to get a max or supermax.
#3 - TRAILBLAZERS (Original Pick: Ronald Small) - Karl-Anthony Towns - 22.6
So in the original draft, Small went #3 and while he's still quite productive, my method has KAT rated slightly better. There's not a huge gap between picks 3 and 8 here and so I don't think you'd be upset with the original pick of Small versus Towns. Perhaps it's KAT's undersized-ness as a big that has kept him from making a bigger leap. Is he a max contract? Someone's probably going to pay him max money, and it only takes one.
#4 - CELTICS (Original Pick: DAngelo Russell) - DeSean Hawkins - 22.1
Hawkins was the original #2 pick and in a re-draft I think he'd probably go #4. Again, he's only marginally better than Russell but my method does show he's having a slightly more productive season, so he gets slotted here. Russell and Hawkins are pretty interchangeable, though. Hawkins with his athleticism is likely to get a max contract as well.
#5 - JAZZ (Original Pick: Robert Neeley) - John Hagerman - 21.4
Hagerman's productivity is, I think, the product of getting minutes on a bad team, so I think this is a little bit of fool's gold having Hagerman so high. Still, he was picked #6 in the original draft, so you could even say he's overachieving this season. The yellow/yellow color ratings may scare teams off from giving him a big contract, which means it may be possible for a team to get a very solid contributor on a very modest contract. It's these kinds of overlooked players that can make or break a team.
#6 - MAVERICKS (Original Pick: John Hagerman) - D'Angelo Russell - 21.3
Again, Russell is in the cluster of players between picks 3 and 8; he's finally getting the minutes this season and given the Wizards' rise in the Southeast this season, you have to figure Russell is a part of their plans going forward. In the redraft he's only getting edged out by fractions of a rating point, to it's not like he was over-drafted.
#7 - HAWKS (Original Pick: Kenneth Williams) - Ronald Small - 20.5
So this original pick was an unmitigated disaster for the Hawks - Kenneth Williams was so bad he is now out of the league (getting slapped down by TC hasn't helped). Ronald Small is another guy who's kind of blooming into his potential this season but since he hasn't fully popped I think he's going to be a hard player to value - his potentials suggest "max" but he's still not producing at a max level so you have to kind of take a leap of faith to give him that kind of money.
#8 - LAKERS (Original Pick: Tristan Bosworth) - Jason Fisher - 20.4
Fisher has turned himself into a solid scorer and a decent backcourt rebounder but seems to be getting close to his ceiling. Since this article is looking at how players are performing now, he rates relatively highly but think he's probably the point on this list where teams will be unwilling to send out max contracts in RFA.
#9 - 76ERS (Original Pick: Markelle Fultz) - #15 - Keith Pfeffer (Timberwolves) - 18.4
Pfeffer, much like Fisher, has shown himself to be a decent scorer and rebounder but also has a nice passing touch. He's still got a little room to grow, but the ceiling here is probably not much bigger than we're seeing now. This is also the point of the draft where you start seeing a fairly noticeable jump player to player as you work your way down.
#10 - RAPTORS (Original Pick: Brett Lopez) - Lawrence Arbogast - 17.3
Arbogast is kind of a jack-of-all trades, master of none. I think he might be posting slightly inflated numbers on a Pelicans team that doesn't seem sure if it's trying to tank or trying to compete. I don't think he's a foundational piece for them so he's probably gettable if you overpay in RFA.
#11 - JAZZ (Original Pick: Joseph Kight) - Robert Neeley - 16.4
Neeley took TC hits, which is why he crashed down from his original #5 spot to here. I think it's interesting to see that the Jazz are still starting him but his minutes have been reduced every year, which suggests he's not part of the Jazz' long term plans and is another guy you can probably pick up in RFA if the price is right.
#12 - KINGS (Original Pick: Tyron Ferris) - Jerrod Stepp - 15.3
Stepp took a TC hit, then got a TC bump to get most of his potentials back but even at his best I don't think he ever projected as anything more than a mediocre center. He is another case of a guy putting up stats on a bad team to bring himself up the list, but I don't expect teams to be knocking his door down to sign him in RFA.
#13 - RAPTORS (Original Pick: Roscoe Diggs) - Tristan Bosworth - 14.7
Diggs was another bad pick who is out of the league. In a re-draft, you get Tristan Bosworth here toward the end of the lottery. Bosworth's probably a starting PG on a bad team and a backup PG on even a decent team. The Lakers have enough talent to lose him, so I expect him to change addresses this RFA season.
#14 - BUCKS (Original Pick: Jose Jumper) - Jose Jumper - 12.0
Jose comes in as the only player who rates exactly at his draft position. He's getting spot starts in Denver and have carved a nice little niche as an off-the bench scorer (7.9 points in 16.5 minutes). Ryan is probably hoping he gets overlooked in RFA, but he could be an interesting offensive option for a team tha tneeds interior bulk.
END OF THE LOTTERY
After the lottery, we're rather scraping the bottom of the barrel. These players are generally not getting much, if any playing time. The only notable thing here is that George Langevin would have wound up the 21st pick in a re-do instead of the #39 pick. But he's not entering RFA anyway, so no need to get too worked up about him. I'll be shocked if these players wind up with more than a vet min contract and depending on the cap situation of the incumbent teams, you may not even see these guys have their RFA rights exercised... meaning we may have a pretty thin RFA class this season.
#15 - HEAT (Original Pick: Keith Pfeffer) - Wilbert Paschall - 11.3
#16 - CELTICS (Original Pick: Jason Fisher) - William Garrard -11.0
#17 - CAVALIERS (Original Pick: Boyd Session) - Pierre Sory - 10.7
#18 - TRAILBLAZERS (Original Pick: Lawrence Arbogast) - Brett Lopez - 9.9
#19 - HAWKS (Original Pick: William Garrard) - Arthur Parish - 9.4
#20 - LAKERS (Original Pick: Dario Wells) - Duane Baineaux - 9.3
#21 - PISTONS (Original Pick: Jerrod Stepp) - George Langevin - 7.1
#22 - PACERS (Original Pick: Gerard Saleh) - Don Gray - 6.7
#23 - HAWKS (Original Pick: Arthur Parish) - Boyd Session - 2.8
#24 - WARRIORS (Original Pick: Mel Mock) - Tyron Ferris - 2.7
...and beyond this point, nobody is producing enough to be worth mentioning in a redraft analysis, so we're going to call it a wrap here.