Garbageman's Guide to the Trade Deadline
Posted: Fri Jan 05, 2018 4:12 pm
DISCLAIMER: Since beginning the writing of this article, a couple trades have been made.
GARBAGEMAN'S GUIDE TO THE TRADE DEADLINE
The trade deadline is nigh, and like some people feel compelled to have a good time on New Year's Eve, plenty of GMs around the league know that this is their last chance to tinker with their rosters heading into the home stretch of the PBSL season. But don't send out those PMs before you read this article for the lowdown and dirty on the players you're most likely to get a deal on and what pieces you'll need to get your dude on the cheap.
The first team alphabetically is also the best team in the league (and coincidentally, the 2nd team alphabetically is rebuilding, so whether or not the Brooklyn Nets have hairy chests is still just speculation). I'm guessing Wig isn't sweating too much about tinkering with his roster. His starting core seems pretty locked in, and though he's expressed frustration with Ellinger's slow growth, the potentials on HE-man mean he'll be a scoring phenom in a few seasons. Since Wig doesn't really need win-now help, young pieces with promise like Arthur Parish and his highly touted bench scoring burst, William Garrard, are probably gettable, but you'll have to overpay.
Conclusion: Don't bother with Wig. He isn't really in need of anything, so there's only a slim chance at anything resembling a good deal.
The Celtics are rebuilding right now, and they've been doing a decent job of that. There aren't any real surprises in this article that you can't find on the trade block, but that glut at SG is glaring at me. Melvin McCall and DAngelo Russell are both flawed players, but Russell could be a starter for a rebuilding team that needs a PG and McCall is an athletic guard who can get some buckets off the bench. I know big men are at a premium in the league, but Reggie Bullock is hot garbage, so anyone decent over 6'6 would be worth a look.
They also have enough cap space to just barely get the tanking Heat under the apron.
Conclusion: If you're a team like the Bucks with too many y/g PFs, you push for a straight up trade for Russell.
According to their trade block, the Brooklyn Nets are in need of an update to their trade block. At 34-11, this means they're probably not looking to do much in terms of dealing. With PG F. Cole Medina on IR with a broken arm, a bad Sim 7 could send the Nets GM into panic mode, but probably not. With Westbrook and Tyreke, the Nets have options on where to play a stopgap starter and having Delonte West and Ron Artest still adding value, the Nets SHOULD stand pat. They've held onto Medina this long, and with the glut of PGs in the last draft, every rebuilding team should have a future point man.
Conclusion: It's probably not worth shaking this team up too much. If you've got cap space, they could save some points by ditching Tristan Thompson's contract, but since it won't get them under the apron, you could probably get more value for the 8 mil you have to spare.
Conclusion: I think the Cats will be fine, but if they have a bumpy sim, and you have an expiring g/g big man you want to ditch, you might be able to walk away with 10 points as Chad doesn't have much else to barter away at this point.
Conclusion: The Kings blew an easy opportunity to get Vernon DeSantis by not picking the correct number between 1 and a million in 1,000 tries. It's about high time they finally just offered Duren.
The Cavs have a pretty stacked team, and they're leading the Central Division over the defending champs, so there's not too much tinkering to be had here. The one odd man out in their starting 5 seems to be Dirk Hardpeck, but even on a rookie contract, he's a focal point of their offense, putting up 20 a game. This team is built to compete for a championship, but I thought the same thing when looking at the Nets. The difference is that the Cavs do have some pieces that seem mobile. The key is Boyd Session. They could probably try to move him for an expiring, but productive vet min and some points, or if they really want to go all in, pair him with an Illyasova or Aminu sized contract for another impact player.
Conclusion: A team like the Wizards could use a player like Boyd Session long term rather than someone like Steven Adams on a one year contract. If the Cavs can find a fit like this, they might be better off Boydless since Kemba, Shumpert, LeBron, and possibly ET are hitting UFA next year.
Conclusion: I don't think there are many teams looking to get rid of big contracts and get under the tax, and I don't think the Mavericks could take any contracts on without losing one of their core members. The obvious answer is to dish off Livingston for points and cut where you can, but I think the Mavs take it a step further and shop Wilson Chandler. He's not the most desireable piece for a competing team, but he's still g/g and can fit in somewhere that needs depth. If not, just use some points to sell off Livingston.
The Nuggets started selling off pieces already, and now their lone blue chip player is Jrue Holiday, who is currently on the block. He's putting up good numbers, but it'll be hard to move a contract that large in the middle of the season. He might be the kind of player that has to be moved in the offseason to a tweener team that has temporary cap space. If all else fails, they can send him to Vancouver for Rondo so that LoCo lives to see another season, but if they're patient, the Nuggets wait.
Conclusion: Forget about Jrue. Any deal you put together to get him now will be ill advised. Kyle Singler's still available and on a vet min, he's worth points to a team that wants to bolster their roster.
It's way more of a blessing, but the curse of walking into the best player in the game is that you don't get to play as much. You have your guy, and he's set, and you don't really get to play around him. The recent Pistons plunge sim is no reason to panic, but there are still moves to be made. Jerrod Stepp is on the block, and he's not a bad C. The Pistons would probably be better suited for a more defensive big man. If you point out that Stepp has a 32 stamina, you might be able to get him for cheap, if you even want him. Other than that, Bynum, Bogdanovic, and Vasquez are not on the block, but Wombat could put them out there to see if they can sneak away more value than they're worth. The Pistons could shop any of those guys around, but there really doesn't seem to be much reason to. They're under the cap, and all three of those players are on pretty decent contracts.
Conclusion: It doesn't matter. Revisit in 2025 when AD's supermax is up and the Keitt/Davis era is over.
With Ben asleep at the wheel like he's driving while listening to a sim call (and not muting) and 20 more teams to cover, I won't really even bother analyzing the roster since the Warriors won't be participating in any trades. They've got a huge tax problem that they'll need to remedy, but with the Nuggets blowing it up and sending pieces out East, the Warriors might just slip into the playoffs. Hopefully Ben returns soon. It's always a bummer to see mutually beneficial trade possibilities rendered impossible by inactive GMs.
Conclusion: Once Ben DOES come back, there will be a lot of interesting trade possibilities due to him needing to tidy up the tax mess he caused when he went on vacation and left the window open.
The Houston Rockets are 4th place in the only competitive division in the West, and despite that, they're still in 7th in the playoff standings. It's a rough but familiar spot for the Rockets, though. Bosh, who propelled them to the conference finals last year, has taken a step back, and they still don't have a starting SG that a competitive team would want. Without their pick this year, getting worse doesn't do them any good. Their trade block is basically tumbleweeds and mentions of Raymond Felton. There are small moves that could be made, but I don't think those will happen.
Conclusion: Without their own pick next year, the Rockets will try to hold onto as many wins as possible, accept Horford and Lawson's option and then start the rebuild process next year, potentially trading their main two.
In the post-Deron era iteration of the Indiana Pacers, GM PaulyP is doing a very understated job of having a very solid team. He has a lot of players on great contracts who are just slightly below the next color level up. Players like Carlos Boozer and Carmelo Anthony are producing in limited roles off the bench. Curry and Jackson are a formidable backcourt. That being said, their record probably won't get much better than it is now. They've played 7 more games at home than on the road and have a negative differential going into the ASB sim. They don't have anyone to build around for the next era, so their options are to do well (but not too well) this year and try to reup in free agency or sell off some of their productive players for a younger core that could pan out.
Conclusion: I think the Pacers stand pat. If you're a competing team with a use for a player like DeRozan or Harris, you'd need younger players to wrest them away, and as the Pacers haven't been too aggressive about their trade block, I don't imagine Pauly is looking to sell too hard,
God, I hope the Clippers do something before the trade deadline, if only to make Tani's pick a little worse. The Clippers had one goal in the offseason...surround KD with talent. However, the offseason was a rough time to throw a new GM into the mix. The Clippers still have some cap space, and they still have KD and Rodney Hood, but they're sorely lacking everywhere else. It's been painstaking watching them whiff on players like Tyson Chandler, Darren Collison, and more who went for points. There are other players out there who could go for similar costs, but the Clippers management has to be quicker to the draw.
Conclusion: If you're a team like the Heat, LAC is a great destination for a guy like Chris Paul if all you want is to dump bad salary and tank. As long as the Clippers don't go over the tax, you might be able to get some points to dump a salary you might have to pay to lose in other situations.
The stewarded Lakers have finally given LA a little bit of direction. The simputer stuck Antetokounmpo out of position at C, and dealing Brandon Jennings to the Pelicans for Valunciunas and Kevin Kowal was a savvy move that had the CPU putting Antetekounpo back in at SF. With plenty of cap space, the Lakers stewards should be trying to utilize that cap space for assets. They've got their own pick next year, and once we find a GM to take over the Lakers, it's nice to see that they've been well taken care of for the handoff.
Conclusion: If you're a team like the Heat, LAL is a great destination for a guy like Chris Paul if LAC doesn't respond to your offers. You'll probably have to pay them more to take on your bad contracts though. Or maybe less if the stewards don't care.
You know who needs to make some moves more than the Mavs? The Heat, that's who! At 32 million over the cap, the Heat have only managed to scrape out 8 wins thus far. The good news is that they've got a clean slate next year, but right now, they need to cut that tax bill down. it'll be hard to get rid of any of their 3 contracts over 30 million dollars, but if I were Logan, I'd be hitting up Gary's PM Box with an offer for 10 points to take whoever will get him under the tax.
Conclusion: Like banana boat brother LBJ last year, Chris Paul might be sitting on the banana bench in Salt Lake. If you're a team with enough space to help the Heat out, you might want to ask about that Pels pick, too. Then send Greg Oden to LAC instead of CP3.
By the time you've read to here, Doug will have already blown up his team, rebuild them, and blown them up again. With 5 PFs, Doug is stealing the Bulls old strategy, but chances are Hagerman, Durbin, Broomfield, and perhaps all 3 don't end the season in Bucks uniforms. The Bucks have a lot of work to do on the wing, but they have the pieces to balance things out. According to their block and my Skype chats, Alton Towers is available, too, and a 7'2 barely blue Center could fetch an over market price in a league concerned about shrinking big men.
Conclusion: If you need a big, there is no doubt in my mind that the Bucks won't dish at least 2 of them before the trade deadline. Just expect the Bucks to milk the clock playing for the best deal they can get.
The T-Wolves are probably not going to be too active towards the trade deadline. At the top of the Western Conference, they've made a couple moves already to bolster their roster for a deep run in the playoffs, and it also seems like they're coming out of last year's tax and injury fiasco with the mindset to not worry about either. Currently, they have 3 players with injuries and are about 14 miliion over the cap on their 4th year of repetition. If your goal is to trade with the Timberwolves, however, there might be a way!
Conclusion: At $10 million a year, you might be able to get Patrick Patterson (if, for some reason, you really want him) and a T-Wolves 1st (if, for some reason, you really want it), to take on Patterson's salary. However, probably not, because Nate would not want to risk his cohesion. Or would he?
The New Orleans Pelicans played all their cards early, and that might be a move that pays off. The Jennings trade was the first shoe, and the other shoe dropped with the acquisition of Luol Deng. It was the latter that solidified the Pels' push in the Southwest. I'm sure Nick would like to make a trade, but Lillard and Griffin are obviously not on the market, and everyone else worth a dang is ineligible for trades.
Conclusion: If you have a win now piece making less than $6 mil and are willing to part with him for points, hit up the Pels. They could use a bolder bench, don't have other cards to play, and probably live for the deal.
The Knickerbockers find themselves out of the conversation for the Atlantic Division after taking it the last couple of years. We already saw them sell off one Chandler, and the remaining Chandler has been on the block. With Jokic and Harris still young and on long deals, Jeremy Lin is also a question mark, albeit one with way more value to the Knicks. Lin's deal isn't that bad, even when he's 32, so the Knicks probably don't NEED to move him now, but the longer they wait, the less they'll get in return.
Conclusion: I see them way more likely to move Parsons. The West has a SF drought going on right now, so he might be a good choice for a team out West in the lower half of the likely playoff teams.
The Thunder were unable to make the trio of Jabari Parker, Isaiah Thomas, and Nikola Vucevic work, and they've made it know that all three are available for trade (although Parker won't be available until next season). Time is running out for the Thunder to get anything for Thomas and Vucevic, so both may go for favorable deals. At 15m expiring this year, Vucevic might be your best bet.
Conclusion: I see plenty of teams that could benefit from Vucevic and offer a mutually agreeable deal for him. If you're one of those teams, make the offer.
The Magic are a team that is truly all in. There's really not much they have to deal to get any stronger, and there's nothing of value they will deal. With the roster they have, they don't really even need to deal, so don't expect much action from them. Andy will be too busy with ASB Pick 'Em results anyway.
Conclusion: If you want any of their bench players, you could probably throw some points at them since they have a big bill waiting for them at the end of the season, but that's the most that's going to happen down in the land of Disney.
Conclusion: The best deal you're going to get? Maybe their 2019 pick. But be warned, the 76ers pick isn't going to get any higher in the draft preview than it is now.
The Phoenix Suns are in a weird spot, and even though they have Kevin Love to make any weird spot not necessarily a bad spot, I think they need to make some moves. Love's not available unless you send the godfather of rebuilds, but I don't think that happens before ASB. Instead, I think the Suns have to get under the tax, and they could do that by shipping off any number of their players. But they also only have 8 players, and with what happened to the T-Wolves and Nuggets last year, the Suns may want to grab a few more vet mins instead of just shipping someone off.
Conclusion: I could see Wes Matthews going to a team with cap space. The Suns have plenty of points. Save your offers on Love until you don't have to get completely cleaned out. Dieng's a better bet to go after.
That the Portland Trailblazers aren't even in a spot to have home court advantage in the West is a sign that one more move might be needed in Portland. At first, I figured that CJ McCollum or Jeremy Lamb would be gone by trade deadline, but at this point in the season, I think that the most surefire way for the Blazers to gain ground out West is to dish out Jayson Tatum. The trick is finding a player who makes the Trailblazers better enough now while still satisfying salary matching rules.
Conclusion: If you can get the Blazers a non-expiring big man or SF that's better than what they got now, send them an offer, but it has to be an offer that'll convince the Blazers they got a true shot at winning a title over the next season or two.
The Sacramento Kings have got a great rebuild going. Even with Noel's max contract, they've got plenty of cap space, plenty of assets at every position, and plenty of lotto picks coming to them. They have a great hand right now, at least in terms of trading, so enter any negotiations knowing that they don't really need anything from you. Unless you have Vernon DeSantis. Paul Webb is a player on their block who has pretty interesting potential, but his value is hurt because he's not on a long enough contract to get anyone bird years, and he's not at his potentials yet. He'd be great for a team that's ready now and needs depth at the guard spot if that team has a two year window to win a championship (see above entry: Trailblazers).
Conclusion: Despite his better position in trade talks, Tani's a pretty fair dealer, so if you've got a deal that swaps equivalent players at different positions, shoot away. I think, however, that it's going to be mostly cap space moves in Sacramento. Tani ain't wasting 30 million in cap space.
It's a rare Spurs rebuilding year after a great, long run, and the Spurs need to start planning for the future. They don't have their own pick next year, and their vets aren't the most vaunted. Gallinari will be hard to move and Collison can't be moved. It all boils down to Dennis Schroeder, and he's probably one of the best pieces you can acquire in a trade. A scan of the league rosters though, and I can't find a great fit for him.
Conclusion: If I missed your need for Schroeder, hit up the Spurs. They need to start stockpiling future pieces, so hit them up with whatever you got in mind, or they're going to have to wait another year before they get anything that will help them going forward.
The Raptors are another team in rebuild mode, and they've got a lot of good pieces, but arguably only one great one. They've been showing off Goran Dragic, but I don't see anyone taking his expiring contract. It'll be time to put Goran in the backseat and really put the pedal to the metal on Joffrey Baratheon, Without the cap space to flaunt, I don't think the Raptors go too heavy, but Geoff might consider the right deal if it's lain at his table.
Conclusion: The Raptors have a handful of interesting y/g players, but they might be interested in a player who could be a true difference maker. You probably don't want to give up your player who could be a true difference maker, though.
The Utah Jazz have a lot of cap space, and they're putting together a team that will be good in anywhere from 2-4 years depending on who you ask. The Jazz think that their core of Kight, Neeley, Gebhard, and Desean Hawkins will be ready to go sooner in that time frame, but they still have a couple pieces to add. The Jazz, with so much cap space, should be active about taking on contracts to stockpile points and possibly future picks. But if they do trade anyone, I think that Desean Hawkins will be the likeliest to go. Maybe they hit up the Raptors for a truer future big man like Jarvis Chambers and a guy who can't play his rightful position like Refugio Lozano?
Conclusion: Somehow, the Utah Jazz will get Andrew Bogut again.
This might be the real last stand for Louie, but it's been like that store that's always having a Going Out of Business Sale. In any case, the Grizzlies are stacked to the rafters, and they're in it to win it all. I don't see them making any moves to try and mitigate their tax bill, because that would barely make a dent. They could try to make trades to push it one more year, but that would do more harm than good.
Conclusion: The Grizzlies have their best shot at a championship since drafting Jimmy and Kawhi. But it's Louis. He's LoCo89 for a reason. LoCo means crazy, and he might have been born in 1989 or something. I say Grizz hold tight, but if something comes along that allows Louis to sit back and watch the world burn, maybe it's a coinflip that he bites.
The Wizards have an interesting build going on. The Twin Towers strategy didn't last, and despite having a somewhat lopsided rebuild, they're putting up a 27-20 record heading into sim 7 with MCW, Drummond, and some short term pieces. They could go either direction, but even at 27-20, they're outside the playoffs looking in because the east is so stacked. Still, there are a couple teams in low playoff spots who might be selling. Either they win now by dishing De La Rosa, or they try to flip MCW and Drummond for players and picks that will complement their O/P rookie when he's closer to being ready.
Conclusion: You can try to dangle pieces for De La Rosa, but I think xist will politely refuse them. Drummond and MCW, on the other hand? Either one is probably gettable for a good deal.
GARBAGEMAN'S GUIDE TO THE TRADE DEADLINE
The trade deadline is nigh, and like some people feel compelled to have a good time on New Year's Eve, plenty of GMs around the league know that this is their last chance to tinker with their rosters heading into the home stretch of the PBSL season. But don't send out those PMs before you read this article for the lowdown and dirty on the players you're most likely to get a deal on and what pieces you'll need to get your dude on the cheap.
Atlanta Hawks
The first team alphabetically is also the best team in the league (and coincidentally, the 2nd team alphabetically is rebuilding, so whether or not the Brooklyn Nets have hairy chests is still just speculation). I'm guessing Wig isn't sweating too much about tinkering with his roster. His starting core seems pretty locked in, and though he's expressed frustration with Ellinger's slow growth, the potentials on HE-man mean he'll be a scoring phenom in a few seasons. Since Wig doesn't really need win-now help, young pieces with promise like Arthur Parish and his highly touted bench scoring burst, William Garrard, are probably gettable, but you'll have to overpay.
Conclusion: Don't bother with Wig. He isn't really in need of anything, so there's only a slim chance at anything resembling a good deal.
Boston Celtics
The Celtics are rebuilding right now, and they've been doing a decent job of that. There aren't any real surprises in this article that you can't find on the trade block, but that glut at SG is glaring at me. Melvin McCall and DAngelo Russell are both flawed players, but Russell could be a starter for a rebuilding team that needs a PG and McCall is an athletic guard who can get some buckets off the bench. I know big men are at a premium in the league, but Reggie Bullock is hot garbage, so anyone decent over 6'6 would be worth a look.
They also have enough cap space to just barely get the tanking Heat under the apron.
Conclusion: If you're a team like the Bucks with too many y/g PFs, you push for a straight up trade for Russell.
Brooklyn Nets
According to their trade block, the Brooklyn Nets are in need of an update to their trade block. At 34-11, this means they're probably not looking to do much in terms of dealing. With PG F. Cole Medina on IR with a broken arm, a bad Sim 7 could send the Nets GM into panic mode, but probably not. With Westbrook and Tyreke, the Nets have options on where to play a stopgap starter and having Delonte West and Ron Artest still adding value, the Nets SHOULD stand pat. They've held onto Medina this long, and with the glut of PGs in the last draft, every rebuilding team should have a future point man.
Conclusion: It's probably not worth shaking this team up too much. If you've got cap space, they could save some points by ditching Tristan Thompson's contract, but since it won't get them under the apron, you could probably get more value for the 8 mil you have to spare.
Charlotte Bobcats
It's not a great time to be analyzing the Bobcats' trade prospects going into the deadline as they have already made their biggest push to climb the incredibly stacked Eastern Conference (let alone the Southeast Division). They just dished off LaMarcus Aldridge, Chet Dooley, and some other dudes to acquire Klay Thompson. Thompson should absorb all of Dooley's minutes, but LaMarcus Aldridge's 36 per game will be missed. I expect to see that Kevin Wright will absorb more minutes, but we'll really see how the Cats react after the next sim with a roster lopsided towards small ball. What's more is that both Aldridge and Dooley were not on the block at the time of his trade, so his block can't be trusted.Conclusion: I think the Cats will be fine, but if they have a bumpy sim, and you have an expiring g/g big man you want to ditch, you might be able to walk away with 10 points as Chad doesn't have much else to barter away at this point.
Chicago Bulls
The Bulls are somewhere between tank and dank right now, and any moves they make should push them one way or the other. Wig analyzed the team in SLOECast 6 and recommended they get rid of Biyombo and Oladipo, but he holds the Bulls 2021 pick, so he cannot be trusted. Nevertheless, the Bulls have them blocked (along with some of their young players), but aren't dead set on moving anyone. Their most important pieces are DSJ and Vernon DeSantis. They do have a stable of vets who could find new homes for a point or two.Conclusion: The Kings blew an easy opportunity to get Vernon DeSantis by not picking the correct number between 1 and a million in 1,000 tries. It's about high time they finally just offered Duren.
Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cavs have a pretty stacked team, and they're leading the Central Division over the defending champs, so there's not too much tinkering to be had here. The one odd man out in their starting 5 seems to be Dirk Hardpeck, but even on a rookie contract, he's a focal point of their offense, putting up 20 a game. This team is built to compete for a championship, but I thought the same thing when looking at the Nets. The difference is that the Cavs do have some pieces that seem mobile. The key is Boyd Session. They could probably try to move him for an expiring, but productive vet min and some points, or if they really want to go all in, pair him with an Illyasova or Aminu sized contract for another impact player.
Conclusion: A team like the Wizards could use a player like Boyd Session long term rather than someone like Steven Adams on a one year contract. If the Cavs can find a fit like this, they might be better off Boydless since Kemba, Shumpert, LeBron, and possibly ET are hitting UFA next year.
Dallas Mavericks
The Mavericks, in my opinion, need to make a trade more than any team on this list so far. They made some win now moves in the offseason to surround Bradley Beal with a really strong team, but they're sitting in the 6th seed right now and are only 3rd in their division. They'll finish with a good record, but with an aging Josh Smith and Wilson Chandler, they're going to have to either reload next year, find a team that needs to drop a big man to get under the tax, or try to get under the tax.Conclusion: I don't think there are many teams looking to get rid of big contracts and get under the tax, and I don't think the Mavericks could take any contracts on without losing one of their core members. The obvious answer is to dish off Livingston for points and cut where you can, but I think the Mavs take it a step further and shop Wilson Chandler. He's not the most desireable piece for a competing team, but he's still g/g and can fit in somewhere that needs depth. If not, just use some points to sell off Livingston.
Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets started selling off pieces already, and now their lone blue chip player is Jrue Holiday, who is currently on the block. He's putting up good numbers, but it'll be hard to move a contract that large in the middle of the season. He might be the kind of player that has to be moved in the offseason to a tweener team that has temporary cap space. If all else fails, they can send him to Vancouver for Rondo so that LoCo lives to see another season, but if they're patient, the Nuggets wait.
Conclusion: Forget about Jrue. Any deal you put together to get him now will be ill advised. Kyle Singler's still available and on a vet min, he's worth points to a team that wants to bolster their roster.
Detroit Pistons
It's way more of a blessing, but the curse of walking into the best player in the game is that you don't get to play as much. You have your guy, and he's set, and you don't really get to play around him. The recent Pistons plunge sim is no reason to panic, but there are still moves to be made. Jerrod Stepp is on the block, and he's not a bad C. The Pistons would probably be better suited for a more defensive big man. If you point out that Stepp has a 32 stamina, you might be able to get him for cheap, if you even want him. Other than that, Bynum, Bogdanovic, and Vasquez are not on the block, but Wombat could put them out there to see if they can sneak away more value than they're worth. The Pistons could shop any of those guys around, but there really doesn't seem to be much reason to. They're under the cap, and all three of those players are on pretty decent contracts.
Conclusion: It doesn't matter. Revisit in 2025 when AD's supermax is up and the Keitt/Davis era is over.
Golden State Warriors
With Ben asleep at the wheel like he's driving while listening to a sim call (and not muting) and 20 more teams to cover, I won't really even bother analyzing the roster since the Warriors won't be participating in any trades. They've got a huge tax problem that they'll need to remedy, but with the Nuggets blowing it up and sending pieces out East, the Warriors might just slip into the playoffs. Hopefully Ben returns soon. It's always a bummer to see mutually beneficial trade possibilities rendered impossible by inactive GMs.
Conclusion: Once Ben DOES come back, there will be a lot of interesting trade possibilities due to him needing to tidy up the tax mess he caused when he went on vacation and left the window open.
Houston Rockets
The Houston Rockets are 4th place in the only competitive division in the West, and despite that, they're still in 7th in the playoff standings. It's a rough but familiar spot for the Rockets, though. Bosh, who propelled them to the conference finals last year, has taken a step back, and they still don't have a starting SG that a competitive team would want. Without their pick this year, getting worse doesn't do them any good. Their trade block is basically tumbleweeds and mentions of Raymond Felton. There are small moves that could be made, but I don't think those will happen.
Conclusion: Without their own pick next year, the Rockets will try to hold onto as many wins as possible, accept Horford and Lawson's option and then start the rebuild process next year, potentially trading their main two.
Indiana Pacers
In the post-Deron era iteration of the Indiana Pacers, GM PaulyP is doing a very understated job of having a very solid team. He has a lot of players on great contracts who are just slightly below the next color level up. Players like Carlos Boozer and Carmelo Anthony are producing in limited roles off the bench. Curry and Jackson are a formidable backcourt. That being said, their record probably won't get much better than it is now. They've played 7 more games at home than on the road and have a negative differential going into the ASB sim. They don't have anyone to build around for the next era, so their options are to do well (but not too well) this year and try to reup in free agency or sell off some of their productive players for a younger core that could pan out.
Conclusion: I think the Pacers stand pat. If you're a competing team with a use for a player like DeRozan or Harris, you'd need younger players to wrest them away, and as the Pacers haven't been too aggressive about their trade block, I don't imagine Pauly is looking to sell too hard,
Los Angeles Clippers
God, I hope the Clippers do something before the trade deadline, if only to make Tani's pick a little worse. The Clippers had one goal in the offseason...surround KD with talent. However, the offseason was a rough time to throw a new GM into the mix. The Clippers still have some cap space, and they still have KD and Rodney Hood, but they're sorely lacking everywhere else. It's been painstaking watching them whiff on players like Tyson Chandler, Darren Collison, and more who went for points. There are other players out there who could go for similar costs, but the Clippers management has to be quicker to the draw.
Conclusion: If you're a team like the Heat, LAC is a great destination for a guy like Chris Paul if all you want is to dump bad salary and tank. As long as the Clippers don't go over the tax, you might be able to get some points to dump a salary you might have to pay to lose in other situations.
Los Angeles Lakers
The stewarded Lakers have finally given LA a little bit of direction. The simputer stuck Antetokounmpo out of position at C, and dealing Brandon Jennings to the Pelicans for Valunciunas and Kevin Kowal was a savvy move that had the CPU putting Antetekounpo back in at SF. With plenty of cap space, the Lakers stewards should be trying to utilize that cap space for assets. They've got their own pick next year, and once we find a GM to take over the Lakers, it's nice to see that they've been well taken care of for the handoff.
Conclusion: If you're a team like the Heat, LAL is a great destination for a guy like Chris Paul if LAC doesn't respond to your offers. You'll probably have to pay them more to take on your bad contracts though. Or maybe less if the stewards don't care.
Miami Heat
You know who needs to make some moves more than the Mavs? The Heat, that's who! At 32 million over the cap, the Heat have only managed to scrape out 8 wins thus far. The good news is that they've got a clean slate next year, but right now, they need to cut that tax bill down. it'll be hard to get rid of any of their 3 contracts over 30 million dollars, but if I were Logan, I'd be hitting up Gary's PM Box with an offer for 10 points to take whoever will get him under the tax.
Conclusion: Like banana boat brother LBJ last year, Chris Paul might be sitting on the banana bench in Salt Lake. If you're a team with enough space to help the Heat out, you might want to ask about that Pels pick, too. Then send Greg Oden to LAC instead of CP3.
Milwaukee Bucks
By the time you've read to here, Doug will have already blown up his team, rebuild them, and blown them up again. With 5 PFs, Doug is stealing the Bulls old strategy, but chances are Hagerman, Durbin, Broomfield, and perhaps all 3 don't end the season in Bucks uniforms. The Bucks have a lot of work to do on the wing, but they have the pieces to balance things out. According to their block and my Skype chats, Alton Towers is available, too, and a 7'2 barely blue Center could fetch an over market price in a league concerned about shrinking big men.
Conclusion: If you need a big, there is no doubt in my mind that the Bucks won't dish at least 2 of them before the trade deadline. Just expect the Bucks to milk the clock playing for the best deal they can get.
Minnesota Timberwolves
The T-Wolves are probably not going to be too active towards the trade deadline. At the top of the Western Conference, they've made a couple moves already to bolster their roster for a deep run in the playoffs, and it also seems like they're coming out of last year's tax and injury fiasco with the mindset to not worry about either. Currently, they have 3 players with injuries and are about 14 miliion over the cap on their 4th year of repetition. If your goal is to trade with the Timberwolves, however, there might be a way!
Conclusion: At $10 million a year, you might be able to get Patrick Patterson (if, for some reason, you really want him) and a T-Wolves 1st (if, for some reason, you really want it), to take on Patterson's salary. However, probably not, because Nate would not want to risk his cohesion. Or would he?
New Orleans Pelicans
The New Orleans Pelicans played all their cards early, and that might be a move that pays off. The Jennings trade was the first shoe, and the other shoe dropped with the acquisition of Luol Deng. It was the latter that solidified the Pels' push in the Southwest. I'm sure Nick would like to make a trade, but Lillard and Griffin are obviously not on the market, and everyone else worth a dang is ineligible for trades.
Conclusion: If you have a win now piece making less than $6 mil and are willing to part with him for points, hit up the Pels. They could use a bolder bench, don't have other cards to play, and probably live for the deal.
New York Knicks
The Knickerbockers find themselves out of the conversation for the Atlantic Division after taking it the last couple of years. We already saw them sell off one Chandler, and the remaining Chandler has been on the block. With Jokic and Harris still young and on long deals, Jeremy Lin is also a question mark, albeit one with way more value to the Knicks. Lin's deal isn't that bad, even when he's 32, so the Knicks probably don't NEED to move him now, but the longer they wait, the less they'll get in return.
Conclusion: I see them way more likely to move Parsons. The West has a SF drought going on right now, so he might be a good choice for a team out West in the lower half of the likely playoff teams.
Oklahoma City Thunder
The Thunder were unable to make the trio of Jabari Parker, Isaiah Thomas, and Nikola Vucevic work, and they've made it know that all three are available for trade (although Parker won't be available until next season). Time is running out for the Thunder to get anything for Thomas and Vucevic, so both may go for favorable deals. At 15m expiring this year, Vucevic might be your best bet.
Conclusion: I see plenty of teams that could benefit from Vucevic and offer a mutually agreeable deal for him. If you're one of those teams, make the offer.
Orlando Magic
The Magic are a team that is truly all in. There's really not much they have to deal to get any stronger, and there's nothing of value they will deal. With the roster they have, they don't really even need to deal, so don't expect much action from them. Andy will be too busy with ASB Pick 'Em results anyway.
Conclusion: If you want any of their bench players, you could probably throw some points at them since they have a big bill waiting for them at the end of the season, but that's the most that's going to happen down in the land of Disney.
Philadelphia 76ers
According to their trade block, the only untouchable pieces are Grimaldi, Simmons, and Fultz, but Scott is a savvy GM, so guys like Kanter and Hayward won't go for a song. However, a recent surge might have the Sixers reassessing the value of their "For the right deal" players. Now that the formula is working, Philly fans might want to keep everything together and aim to close the gap on the Nets.Conclusion: The best deal you're going to get? Maybe their 2019 pick. But be warned, the 76ers pick isn't going to get any higher in the draft preview than it is now.
Phoenix Suns
The Phoenix Suns are in a weird spot, and even though they have Kevin Love to make any weird spot not necessarily a bad spot, I think they need to make some moves. Love's not available unless you send the godfather of rebuilds, but I don't think that happens before ASB. Instead, I think the Suns have to get under the tax, and they could do that by shipping off any number of their players. But they also only have 8 players, and with what happened to the T-Wolves and Nuggets last year, the Suns may want to grab a few more vet mins instead of just shipping someone off.
Conclusion: I could see Wes Matthews going to a team with cap space. The Suns have plenty of points. Save your offers on Love until you don't have to get completely cleaned out. Dieng's a better bet to go after.
Portland Trailblzers
That the Portland Trailblazers aren't even in a spot to have home court advantage in the West is a sign that one more move might be needed in Portland. At first, I figured that CJ McCollum or Jeremy Lamb would be gone by trade deadline, but at this point in the season, I think that the most surefire way for the Blazers to gain ground out West is to dish out Jayson Tatum. The trick is finding a player who makes the Trailblazers better enough now while still satisfying salary matching rules.
Conclusion: If you can get the Blazers a non-expiring big man or SF that's better than what they got now, send them an offer, but it has to be an offer that'll convince the Blazers they got a true shot at winning a title over the next season or two.
Sacramento Kings
The Sacramento Kings have got a great rebuild going. Even with Noel's max contract, they've got plenty of cap space, plenty of assets at every position, and plenty of lotto picks coming to them. They have a great hand right now, at least in terms of trading, so enter any negotiations knowing that they don't really need anything from you. Unless you have Vernon DeSantis. Paul Webb is a player on their block who has pretty interesting potential, but his value is hurt because he's not on a long enough contract to get anyone bird years, and he's not at his potentials yet. He'd be great for a team that's ready now and needs depth at the guard spot if that team has a two year window to win a championship (see above entry: Trailblazers).
Conclusion: Despite his better position in trade talks, Tani's a pretty fair dealer, so if you've got a deal that swaps equivalent players at different positions, shoot away. I think, however, that it's going to be mostly cap space moves in Sacramento. Tani ain't wasting 30 million in cap space.
San Antonio Spurs
It's a rare Spurs rebuilding year after a great, long run, and the Spurs need to start planning for the future. They don't have their own pick next year, and their vets aren't the most vaunted. Gallinari will be hard to move and Collison can't be moved. It all boils down to Dennis Schroeder, and he's probably one of the best pieces you can acquire in a trade. A scan of the league rosters though, and I can't find a great fit for him.
Conclusion: If I missed your need for Schroeder, hit up the Spurs. They need to start stockpiling future pieces, so hit them up with whatever you got in mind, or they're going to have to wait another year before they get anything that will help them going forward.
Toronto Raptors
The Raptors are another team in rebuild mode, and they've got a lot of good pieces, but arguably only one great one. They've been showing off Goran Dragic, but I don't see anyone taking his expiring contract. It'll be time to put Goran in the backseat and really put the pedal to the metal on Joffrey Baratheon, Without the cap space to flaunt, I don't think the Raptors go too heavy, but Geoff might consider the right deal if it's lain at his table.
Conclusion: The Raptors have a handful of interesting y/g players, but they might be interested in a player who could be a true difference maker. You probably don't want to give up your player who could be a true difference maker, though.
Utah Jazz
The Utah Jazz have a lot of cap space, and they're putting together a team that will be good in anywhere from 2-4 years depending on who you ask. The Jazz think that their core of Kight, Neeley, Gebhard, and Desean Hawkins will be ready to go sooner in that time frame, but they still have a couple pieces to add. The Jazz, with so much cap space, should be active about taking on contracts to stockpile points and possibly future picks. But if they do trade anyone, I think that Desean Hawkins will be the likeliest to go. Maybe they hit up the Raptors for a truer future big man like Jarvis Chambers and a guy who can't play his rightful position like Refugio Lozano?
Conclusion: Somehow, the Utah Jazz will get Andrew Bogut again.
Vancouver Grizzlies
This might be the real last stand for Louie, but it's been like that store that's always having a Going Out of Business Sale. In any case, the Grizzlies are stacked to the rafters, and they're in it to win it all. I don't see them making any moves to try and mitigate their tax bill, because that would barely make a dent. They could try to make trades to push it one more year, but that would do more harm than good.
Conclusion: The Grizzlies have their best shot at a championship since drafting Jimmy and Kawhi. But it's Louis. He's LoCo89 for a reason. LoCo means crazy, and he might have been born in 1989 or something. I say Grizz hold tight, but if something comes along that allows Louis to sit back and watch the world burn, maybe it's a coinflip that he bites.
Washington Wizards
The Wizards have an interesting build going on. The Twin Towers strategy didn't last, and despite having a somewhat lopsided rebuild, they're putting up a 27-20 record heading into sim 7 with MCW, Drummond, and some short term pieces. They could go either direction, but even at 27-20, they're outside the playoffs looking in because the east is so stacked. Still, there are a couple teams in low playoff spots who might be selling. Either they win now by dishing De La Rosa, or they try to flip MCW and Drummond for players and picks that will complement their O/P rookie when he's closer to being ready.
Conclusion: You can try to dangle pieces for De La Rosa, but I think xist will politely refuse them. Drummond and MCW, on the other hand? Either one is probably gettable for a good deal.