Elite O: Analyzing Offensive Potential in "College-Era" Players Versus "Real" Players
Posted: Wed Jan 03, 2018 10:42 am
A lot of things are changing in the PBSL landscape. As we are all well aware, the generation of "Real" players has ended, and from now on we will be playing with players that I call "College-Era" players. What do we know about them so far? We know that some have turned to stars, most have become solid contributors, and a few have awful names. Something I was interested in when looking at the College-Era players is their offensive ability, and particularly elite offensive ability (defined here as an A potential in a category). Because as a wise man once said, the game has been, and always will be, about buckets.
I wanted to see how the College-Era players primarily scored (or where they will eventually score when they reach their potential). Much of the discussion about these players is that they have different skillsets than we are used to. But I wanted to see if the offensive skills they were elite at reflect the offensive skills current players are elite at. Keep in mind this only analyzes this year, so it's not so much an indicator of past versus future as it is "This is where the league is likely headed" (the answer to that is not "DEAD" or "HARMED" despite what one GM may say).
This started from an observation that I suspected but wanted to test: are College-Era players better at inside scoring than current players? It seemed like most drafts were full of players with A in INS, even further down the draft board. So to start, I went into every team and free agents and found how many have an A in INS. The results?
TOTAL INS A: 47
COLLEGE-ERA: 33
REAL: 14
PERCENTAGE SPLIT: 70/30
My suspicion was clearly correct. College-Era Players are overwhelmingly more elite at scoring inside than current players. This will surely change teambuilding in the future, as centers with Post Defense will become increasingly important.
But is this the only category where the college-era players are more elite offensively? I decided to look at the other three categories (JPS, FTS, 3PS) as well to see if my second suspicion was true: are College-Era Players more elite offensively in general?
First, Jump Shot. This one looked dire for real players at first, as I started it with the Eastern Conference and College-Era Players outperformed them almost 3-to-1. But after the Western Conference was tallied, the numbers look more even:
TOTAL JPS A: 35
COLLEGE-ERA: 19
REAL: 16
PERCENTAGE SPLIT: 54/46
The college-era players are more elite at jump shots, but something that is interesting to me is how few players have A overall in the league. Jump Shot was the lowest category of offense, having 12 less than the second lowest. It seems that fewer players are relying on that part of their game.
STATUS OF SUSPICION: So far, my suspicion looks good. Although the margin wasn't as wide, that is now 52 A's in College-Era Players compared to 30 A's in Real Players. Two more categories to go through, but 22 is a big number to overcome. Let's go to the next category:
TOTAL FTS A: 125 (!!)
COLLEGE-ERA: 53
REAL: 72
PERCENTAGE SPLIT: 42/58
Wow, PBSL players are good at free throws! This is by far the largest A's in any category, and the first that real players are more elite at. This went against what I suspected, because I remember in previous years seeing College-Era Players at the top of the FT% list. In fact, they're top two this year. But it seems that current players are also good at the charity stripe, which turns the tide in this race.
STATUS OF SUSPICION: My suspicion is looking a little more fragile here. That discrepancy in FTS brings the Real Players to within 2, 105-103. The College-Era Players will need to have an advantage in the final category for my theory to be proven right.
TOTAL 3PS A: 47
COLLEGE-ERA: 13
REAL: 34
PERCENTAGE SPLIT: 28/72
Womp womp. Looks like when it comes to the deep ball, the College-Era Players don't measure up. This might make sense, especially since the last few years of drafts (say, 2008-2014) is during a period where the three-ball is revolutionizing the league in real life, and the computer program (despite its RL replication attempts) can't quite keep up. This last revelation says a lot about the College-Era Players in general, which I'll get to in a second. But first:
STATUS OF SUSPICION: Well I was Fryeing wrong. After all four categories have been tallied, the College-Era Players blew a 52-30 lead and fall behind. Of all offensive categories, Real Players have 136 A's and College-Era only have 118. Total percentage split is 54/46 in favor of Real Players.
RESULT OF ANALYSIS: I'd say the main thing to take away from this is that there is a certain type of player the college game is producing in droves, and that is the inside scorer. Something I may want to do after this is go back to 1993 or 1994, a time when inside scoring was most important, and see if the disparity between INS and 3PS is significant like it seems to be in these new players. This also means that GMs building their teams may need to account for the new influx of inside talent at the expense of longball talent.
I hope you enjoyed this analysis!
I wanted to see how the College-Era players primarily scored (or where they will eventually score when they reach their potential). Much of the discussion about these players is that they have different skillsets than we are used to. But I wanted to see if the offensive skills they were elite at reflect the offensive skills current players are elite at. Keep in mind this only analyzes this year, so it's not so much an indicator of past versus future as it is "This is where the league is likely headed" (the answer to that is not "DEAD" or "HARMED" despite what one GM may say).
This started from an observation that I suspected but wanted to test: are College-Era players better at inside scoring than current players? It seemed like most drafts were full of players with A in INS, even further down the draft board. So to start, I went into every team and free agents and found how many have an A in INS. The results?
TOTAL INS A: 47
COLLEGE-ERA: 33
REAL: 14
PERCENTAGE SPLIT: 70/30
My suspicion was clearly correct. College-Era Players are overwhelmingly more elite at scoring inside than current players. This will surely change teambuilding in the future, as centers with Post Defense will become increasingly important.
But is this the only category where the college-era players are more elite offensively? I decided to look at the other three categories (JPS, FTS, 3PS) as well to see if my second suspicion was true: are College-Era Players more elite offensively in general?
First, Jump Shot. This one looked dire for real players at first, as I started it with the Eastern Conference and College-Era Players outperformed them almost 3-to-1. But after the Western Conference was tallied, the numbers look more even:
TOTAL JPS A: 35
COLLEGE-ERA: 19
REAL: 16
PERCENTAGE SPLIT: 54/46
The college-era players are more elite at jump shots, but something that is interesting to me is how few players have A overall in the league. Jump Shot was the lowest category of offense, having 12 less than the second lowest. It seems that fewer players are relying on that part of their game.
STATUS OF SUSPICION: So far, my suspicion looks good. Although the margin wasn't as wide, that is now 52 A's in College-Era Players compared to 30 A's in Real Players. Two more categories to go through, but 22 is a big number to overcome. Let's go to the next category:
TOTAL FTS A: 125 (!!)
COLLEGE-ERA: 53
REAL: 72
PERCENTAGE SPLIT: 42/58
Wow, PBSL players are good at free throws! This is by far the largest A's in any category, and the first that real players are more elite at. This went against what I suspected, because I remember in previous years seeing College-Era Players at the top of the FT% list. In fact, they're top two this year. But it seems that current players are also good at the charity stripe, which turns the tide in this race.
STATUS OF SUSPICION: My suspicion is looking a little more fragile here. That discrepancy in FTS brings the Real Players to within 2, 105-103. The College-Era Players will need to have an advantage in the final category for my theory to be proven right.
TOTAL 3PS A: 47
COLLEGE-ERA: 13
REAL: 34
PERCENTAGE SPLIT: 28/72
Womp womp. Looks like when it comes to the deep ball, the College-Era Players don't measure up. This might make sense, especially since the last few years of drafts (say, 2008-2014) is during a period where the three-ball is revolutionizing the league in real life, and the computer program (despite its RL replication attempts) can't quite keep up. This last revelation says a lot about the College-Era Players in general, which I'll get to in a second. But first:
STATUS OF SUSPICION: Well I was Fryeing wrong. After all four categories have been tallied, the College-Era Players blew a 52-30 lead and fall behind. Of all offensive categories, Real Players have 136 A's and College-Era only have 118. Total percentage split is 54/46 in favor of Real Players.
RESULT OF ANALYSIS: I'd say the main thing to take away from this is that there is a certain type of player the college game is producing in droves, and that is the inside scorer. Something I may want to do after this is go back to 1993 or 1994, a time when inside scoring was most important, and see if the disparity between INS and 3PS is significant like it seems to be in these new players. This also means that GMs building their teams may need to account for the new influx of inside talent at the expense of longball talent.
I hope you enjoyed this analysis!
