Who will you be when you grow up?
Posted: Sun Nov 26, 2017 9:34 pm
One of the things I like to do with my comprehensive list of all player-years in league history is to look at the Fastbreak College Basketball draft files and see how they match up against historical players. For today's comparison I used the following methodology.
1. Assign potential grades the following numerical values: A=5, B=4, etc.
2. Subtract the draft prospects potential score from the potential score of each past player-year
3. Add up the absolute value of all potential score differences
4. The player-year with the lowers sum of absolute value differences is the most similar
5. Repeat for athleticism attributes but compare only to past rookie player-years
Just so you understand how this works say a rookie prospect has passing potential B and handling potential A. Derrick Rose has passing potential A and handling potential B. The passing difference is -1 and the handling difference is 1. I sum the absolute value of the differences so the sum would be 2 for those two attributes.
James Galarza
Closest potentials match: Jim Jackson
Sum difference: 5
James is a better: Offensive rebounder, perimeter defender, shot blocker
James is a worse: Free throw shooter, post defender
Closest rookie athlete: Manu Ginobli
Summary: James is essentially Jim Jackson reincarnated as a shooting guard. For those of you that weren't around back then. Jim Jackson was a P/P scoring machine. James should be the same with time.
Darren Tabor
Closest potentials match: Dominique Wilkins
Sum difference: 3
Darren is a better: Jump shooter
James is a worse: Passer, shot blocker
Closest rookie athlete: Kobe Bryant
Summary: This one is pretty cool because Darren is projecting to be very similar to a player that we haven't seen in a long time and really only barely got to see in his prime.
Jan Allred
Closest potentials match: Steph Curry/Reggie Jackson
Sum difference: 5/5
Jan is a better: Handler, passer, and post defender than both
Jan is a worse: 3 point shooter and perimeter defender than Curry
Closest rookie athlete: Bimbo Coles
Summary: Jan is a rich mans Jackson or a poor man's Curry (at least in the scoring department). He is better at the true PG stuff than both of them so this guy should be good.
James Gebhart
Closest potentials match: Bobby Simmons/George McCloud
Sum difference: 3/3
James is a better: Perimeter defender than both
James is a worse: Shot blocker than both
Closest rookie athlete: James Harden
Summary: James looks a whole lot like McCloud and Simmons. What does this mean (for those of you newer to the league)? Both of those were solid starters but not #1 or #2 guys but the 100 jump and 77 quickness should make this guy better than either of them.
Stephen Keitt
Closest potentials match: Ray Allen
Sum difference: 2
Stephen is a better: Handler, post defender
Stephen is a worse: NA
Closest rookie athlete: Bimbo Coles
Summary: Ray Allen was a stud so this guy just climbed by draft list. At the same time we should talk about Bimbo's athleticism because he is the comparable for multiple prospects. Being like Bimbo means 100 quickness, 60's jumping, and 40/50's strength. Ray Allen had strength in the 80s but was slower. I'm not sure how that will translate but it is worth noting.
Beau Agustin
Closest potentials match: Kemba Walker
Sum difference: 6
Beau is a better: Defensive rebounder
Beau is a worse: Passer, perimeter defender, stealer
Closest rookie athlete: Bimbo Coles
Summary: Beau is a little more like what we have been seeing from FBCB. He has a weird skill set for his position. I am not really a fan of these guys. Personally, I'd rather have a point guard that can pass and defend the perimeter and can't defensive rebound, especially if you're 6'1" and not a great athlete.
Jamison Robertson
Closest potentials match: Eric Piatowski/Rex Chapman
Sum difference: 4/4
Jamison is a better: Perimeter defender, shot blocker
Jamison is a worse: Defensive rebounder
Closest rookie athlete: Corey Magette
Summary: Jamison is kind of exciting to me. Piatowski and Chapman were skilled players but never had the athleticism of Magette. This guy could be really good.
Don Houghton
Closest potentials match: Sean Elliott
Sum difference: 8
Closest rookie athlete: Trevor Ariza
Summary: So pretty much, we've never seen anything like Don before. This is probably mostly because he is so bad on defense and so good on offense. He has a B in post defense and D's and F's in all other rebounding/defensive categories. In the old world, guys with that kind of defensive potential didn't have A potential in inside and perimeter scoring. Make no mistake, this guy could be a tremendous scorer and prevent others from scoring on him in the post but he will not rebound or block shots or steal or defend the perimeter.
John Twigg
Closest potentials match: Young Jose Calderon/Old John Stockton
Sum difference: 5
John is a better: Offensive rebounder, post defender than both
James is a worse: 3 point shooter than Calderon, passer than Stockton
Closest rookie athlete: Robot Pack
Summary: John is another prototypical FBCB player with his skills in areas that won't really benefit him. He can jump so he might he a good rebounder but he is weak so maybe not.
1. Assign potential grades the following numerical values: A=5, B=4, etc.
2. Subtract the draft prospects potential score from the potential score of each past player-year
3. Add up the absolute value of all potential score differences
4. The player-year with the lowers sum of absolute value differences is the most similar
5. Repeat for athleticism attributes but compare only to past rookie player-years
Just so you understand how this works say a rookie prospect has passing potential B and handling potential A. Derrick Rose has passing potential A and handling potential B. The passing difference is -1 and the handling difference is 1. I sum the absolute value of the differences so the sum would be 2 for those two attributes.
James Galarza
Closest potentials match: Jim Jackson
Sum difference: 5
James is a better: Offensive rebounder, perimeter defender, shot blocker
James is a worse: Free throw shooter, post defender
Closest rookie athlete: Manu Ginobli
Summary: James is essentially Jim Jackson reincarnated as a shooting guard. For those of you that weren't around back then. Jim Jackson was a P/P scoring machine. James should be the same with time.
Darren Tabor
Closest potentials match: Dominique Wilkins
Sum difference: 3
Darren is a better: Jump shooter
James is a worse: Passer, shot blocker
Closest rookie athlete: Kobe Bryant
Summary: This one is pretty cool because Darren is projecting to be very similar to a player that we haven't seen in a long time and really only barely got to see in his prime.
Jan Allred
Closest potentials match: Steph Curry/Reggie Jackson
Sum difference: 5/5
Jan is a better: Handler, passer, and post defender than both
Jan is a worse: 3 point shooter and perimeter defender than Curry
Closest rookie athlete: Bimbo Coles
Summary: Jan is a rich mans Jackson or a poor man's Curry (at least in the scoring department). He is better at the true PG stuff than both of them so this guy should be good.
James Gebhart
Closest potentials match: Bobby Simmons/George McCloud
Sum difference: 3/3
James is a better: Perimeter defender than both
James is a worse: Shot blocker than both
Closest rookie athlete: James Harden
Summary: James looks a whole lot like McCloud and Simmons. What does this mean (for those of you newer to the league)? Both of those were solid starters but not #1 or #2 guys but the 100 jump and 77 quickness should make this guy better than either of them.
Stephen Keitt
Closest potentials match: Ray Allen
Sum difference: 2
Stephen is a better: Handler, post defender
Stephen is a worse: NA
Closest rookie athlete: Bimbo Coles
Summary: Ray Allen was a stud so this guy just climbed by draft list. At the same time we should talk about Bimbo's athleticism because he is the comparable for multiple prospects. Being like Bimbo means 100 quickness, 60's jumping, and 40/50's strength. Ray Allen had strength in the 80s but was slower. I'm not sure how that will translate but it is worth noting.
Beau Agustin
Closest potentials match: Kemba Walker
Sum difference: 6
Beau is a better: Defensive rebounder
Beau is a worse: Passer, perimeter defender, stealer
Closest rookie athlete: Bimbo Coles
Summary: Beau is a little more like what we have been seeing from FBCB. He has a weird skill set for his position. I am not really a fan of these guys. Personally, I'd rather have a point guard that can pass and defend the perimeter and can't defensive rebound, especially if you're 6'1" and not a great athlete.
Jamison Robertson
Closest potentials match: Eric Piatowski/Rex Chapman
Sum difference: 4/4
Jamison is a better: Perimeter defender, shot blocker
Jamison is a worse: Defensive rebounder
Closest rookie athlete: Corey Magette
Summary: Jamison is kind of exciting to me. Piatowski and Chapman were skilled players but never had the athleticism of Magette. This guy could be really good.
Don Houghton
Closest potentials match: Sean Elliott
Sum difference: 8
Closest rookie athlete: Trevor Ariza
Summary: So pretty much, we've never seen anything like Don before. This is probably mostly because he is so bad on defense and so good on offense. He has a B in post defense and D's and F's in all other rebounding/defensive categories. In the old world, guys with that kind of defensive potential didn't have A potential in inside and perimeter scoring. Make no mistake, this guy could be a tremendous scorer and prevent others from scoring on him in the post but he will not rebound or block shots or steal or defend the perimeter.
John Twigg
Closest potentials match: Young Jose Calderon/Old John Stockton
Sum difference: 5
John is a better: Offensive rebounder, post defender than both
James is a worse: 3 point shooter than Calderon, passer than Stockton
Closest rookie athlete: Robot Pack
Summary: John is another prototypical FBCB player with his skills in areas that won't really benefit him. He can jump so he might he a good rebounder but he is weak so maybe not.
