A Nightmare Before (ta)Xmas: An in-depth case study of the Vancouver Grizzlies
Posted: Mon Nov 06, 2017 5:18 pm
It's no secret that the luxury tax remains one of the cornerstones of the behind-the-scenes basketball game in PBSL. It is a staunch defender of parity. It is a phenomenal driver of the off-the-court market that helps the PBSL brand by way of incentivizing media functions and other fan-friendly events. And to many teams, it is a looming specter, ready to bare its scythe at contention and send teams back to the drawing board.
While teams like the Suns and Pistons have been able to compete without finding themselves on the other side of the tax divide thanks to double purple players who can carry any merry band of scrubs along for a deep playoff run, other teams aren't so lucky. Instead, it's the unsung heroes, the OP accounting teams that keep some teams afloat. The Miami heat were able to dodge delinquency via a stunning array of trades that pared a powerhouse team down to pretty much LeBron James and Goran Dragic, and that still warranted a couple ECF appearances.
Recently, the Toronto Raptors were able to pay off the delinquent bill that saw them unable to resign cornerstone center Hassan Whiteside for anything more than a min offer, and Hassan up and left for Cleveland of all places. Along with a bunch of rented veterans, he's been able to keep playoff hopes alive for the Cavs,
However, one team stands out as a grave warning to all those who dare not fear the taxman. One team has become an expanding black hole of debt. And short of an apocalypse, that team is likely going to get sucked in and spat out into a dark age where the organization may not recover for a decade. It all started in a small, experimental, manufactured town in South Dakota called VanMemphis, and the ghost-town that remains there after the Grizzlies moved to Vancouver is an ominous foreshadowing of what is likely to be the future of the Grizz.
The Beginning
On the trail to Vancouver, things were looking up for the Grizzlies. They had two very promising stars in Kawhi Leonard and Jimmy Butler who were filling in their potentials nicely heading into their RFA contract discussions. Andre Drummond and Elfrid Payton were both still on rookie contracts, and even maxing up their two future centerpieces would leave them with some room to fill out their roster, maybe even land them another significant piece.
The front office, however, wanted to make an impression on its new Canadian fans, and another year just missing the playoffs wouldn't do. Instead of letting Payton and Drummond grow into their starting roles, the Grizzlies took advantage of the temporary bout of cap space they'd have before RFA happened, knowing that they could go over the cap to retain their stars. They took on 30 year old Rajon Rondo's year-in super-max contract in exchange for both of their rookie contracts and some filler. As part of this deal, they also swapped out Omer Asik's expiring contract for Andres Biedrins' contract, which, for a similar quality player, was longer and not really less expensive.
During RFA, they were also able to lock in a long term deal with promising prospect Alec Burks. At 15 million flat per year for four years, Burks looked like a good signing with lots of potential and great athleticism.
After RFA, they bolstered their position by acquiring Paul Millsap in exchange for minimum contracts. Their team looked strong and ready to compete. It was built to compete, and it cost what you'd expect a championship contender to cost, almost 40 million dollars over the cap.
The team finished 38-44 and did not make the playoffs.
Perhaps worried about the tax bill they'd be saddled with, the Grizzlies cut some corners in training camp and Kawhi Leonard and Jimmy Butler, fresh off of max deals, both showed up for the season looking like they both took a couple steps back. Worse yet, Alec Burks struggled with his shooting in camp, and it was apparent that this was not the player they paid for.
Though even at 30, Rondo was an incredible point guard, taking on his contract was a move that would end up looking worse with each passing year. Even if they decline his option for next year's 2018-2019 season, they'll still be adding onto a couple years of unpaid and almost unpayable tax bills.
The 38-44 team accrued a tax bill of 57 points, which they were able to pay off, but though things would get better temporarily, the worst was yet to come.
2016-2017
Determined to make it into the playoffs, the Grizzlies traded their first round draft pick, Aubrey Broomfield, the bird rights for Tony Allen, and Paul Millsap to the Blazers for plug and play defensive puzzler and roster formatting nightmare Luc Richard Mbah A Moute and Carlos Boozer. The Grizz later used the 125% rule to acquire LaMarcus Aldridge from the Mavericks for Boozer along with Andris Biedrins, filler salary, some second rounders, and a point that the miserly Mavs owner for some reason needed to complete the deal.
The Aldridge deal proved significant as the Grizzlies finished with a winning record of 45-37 and found themselves in the playoffs...where they were handily swept by the Spurs. This all came at a price of being 55 million dollars over the cap in their 2nd year repeater status. The 154 point tax bill proved to be too much to pay, pretty much crippling them for the following season.
Present Day
Unable to afford TC insurance, 15 million dollar man Alec Burks continued to decline into an overpaid, mediocre player. He still has one more guaranteed year on his contract and will be hard to move, especially given that the Grizzlies are all out of assets. Their points bank is already owed to the tax for quite some time, and they do not have a pick they can trade until their 2021 becomes available sometime next season. As of this writing, they find themselves just on the wrong side of the playoff cutoff.
Almost vexingly, they agreed to trade LaMarcus Alrdirge's expiring contract for the slightly younger, more balanced Spencer Hawes, adding almost 30 million in salaru they'll have to pay next year. While it cut their bill down on this season slightly, they'll still be looking at around 200 points to add on to their already large 154 point debt.
Next year, they have 4 players under guaranteed contract (plus their 2018 draft pick) and team options on Mbah a Moute and the now-aged Rajon Rondo. Even if the Grizzlies decline those options, they'll be bumping up against the cap with three more roster spaces to fill.
What Next?
OPTION ONE: Trade to reset
With the trade deadline for the 2016-2017 season looming, it'd be hard to imagine the Grizzlies would be able to make any tax-conscious moves this season. Kawhi Leonard and Jimmy Butler both have trade value, but the Grizzlies, as evidenced by the Spencer Hawes trade, might still be in a competing mindset. There are also not very many locations that have the cap space to provide much relief this year and not many locations to boot that would also have a need for a wing like Jimmy or Kawhi. I'd expect to see at least one -- if not both -- of those players moved next offseason. However, with years of uninsured training camps chipping away at their once extraordinary potentials, their trade values have dipped quite a bit. Don't get me wrong...Butler is still a fantastic scorer and Leonard is still a great player, but they are starting to lose the trade value they once had, and not even both combined would translate to a quick fix where there won't be a long, slow, and painful rebuilding process.
OPTION TWO: Trade until you fade
Theoretically, the Grizzlies could try to find trade partners to keep them middlingly competitive year after year. Just trade a contract like Kawhi's to a competing team that's on the cusp of being in a bad tax situation for slightly worse players (or even equivalent or better players) on longer contracts. If the Grizzlies can find a way to win without needing RFA or UFA to contribute to at least their starting lineups, all while staying one step ahead of ever paying back their debts, we know their management is renegade enough to roll those dice until...
OPTION THREE: Skip town
With their backs against the wall, the Grizzlies ownership could sell the team and stick some unlucky waiting list candidate with the huge, tedious project of trying to pay back the Grizzlies' tax bill. 350 points, however, is no easy sum to come up with when your team is out of assets to gain points from winning or having good players. It's a problem that compounds as young players are hurt due to lack of funding to pay good staff for training and losing teams don't really get many points without putting in a lot of work for the league (which is capped to the point where it'd still take almost a decade to acquire enough points this way so that the Grizzlies are out of their hole).
OPTION THREE Part II: Dissolve the Grizzlies
If, and this is just hypothetical, the Grizzlies rack up a bill and stick it on someone else to foot, the league might have to make an important decision to step in and dissolve the Vancouver Grizzlies. In this case, they'd probably be almost immediately rebuilt as an expansion team in Memphis and start from scratch. This would require some voting by league GMs who are feeling pretty generous to a new kid on the block.
OPTION FOUR: 0-82
The Grizzlies could try to put together an unprecedented 0-82 season while grinding out of the tax cellar. I had a teacher in elementary school once who reckoned that if you could get a 0 on a multiple choice test, she'd give you 100 because it proves that you knew the material well enough to know what the answers weren't. The policy was taken away when too many kids would get incredibly low, non-zero test scores by accidentally getting one or two answers right. The Grizzlies could set their aims to do this. History isn't all about being the best. One more Anthony Davis in the draft over the next few years and the Grizzlies could win a championship once he's developed.
Conclusion
The best case scenario for the Grizzlies to escape their tax burden is probably a tanking strategy. Dedicate three or four seasons to gaining points by getting rid of any assets they can and taking more of an observational role by contributing to league media and volunteer jobs. By the fourth or fifth season, they will be able to tank to actually start rebuilding. Until then, they can trade young players and assets for serviceable ones to try to chisel away some wins for points.
The worst case scenario is that it takes a decade for the Grizzlies -- under either current or future management -- to recover. It'll be a painful grind, and it's one that a few seasons of wanton spending can lead to. The league's current stance is that debts are transferrable to new ownership. Debts belong to the team, not the GM. LoCo has shown no signs of wanting to cut and run, and to some (especially PBSL media writers who have been dodging student loans for a decade because you can't pay them off in presser points), he's an intriguing anti-hero. As much as I want to root for the Grizz to game the system to stay competitive without having to pay back that tax, the caveat to that approach is that it makes it that much harder to climb back into the black.
Regardless of what happens, it's going to redefine how we think about points, tax, and ownership of debts in PBSL. If it doesn't, it could lead to a pretty big market crash the way that more and more teams are spinning (and spending) to win each season.
While teams like the Suns and Pistons have been able to compete without finding themselves on the other side of the tax divide thanks to double purple players who can carry any merry band of scrubs along for a deep playoff run, other teams aren't so lucky. Instead, it's the unsung heroes, the OP accounting teams that keep some teams afloat. The Miami heat were able to dodge delinquency via a stunning array of trades that pared a powerhouse team down to pretty much LeBron James and Goran Dragic, and that still warranted a couple ECF appearances.
Recently, the Toronto Raptors were able to pay off the delinquent bill that saw them unable to resign cornerstone center Hassan Whiteside for anything more than a min offer, and Hassan up and left for Cleveland of all places. Along with a bunch of rented veterans, he's been able to keep playoff hopes alive for the Cavs,
However, one team stands out as a grave warning to all those who dare not fear the taxman. One team has become an expanding black hole of debt. And short of an apocalypse, that team is likely going to get sucked in and spat out into a dark age where the organization may not recover for a decade. It all started in a small, experimental, manufactured town in South Dakota called VanMemphis, and the ghost-town that remains there after the Grizzlies moved to Vancouver is an ominous foreshadowing of what is likely to be the future of the Grizz.
The Beginning
On the trail to Vancouver, things were looking up for the Grizzlies. They had two very promising stars in Kawhi Leonard and Jimmy Butler who were filling in their potentials nicely heading into their RFA contract discussions. Andre Drummond and Elfrid Payton were both still on rookie contracts, and even maxing up their two future centerpieces would leave them with some room to fill out their roster, maybe even land them another significant piece.
The front office, however, wanted to make an impression on its new Canadian fans, and another year just missing the playoffs wouldn't do. Instead of letting Payton and Drummond grow into their starting roles, the Grizzlies took advantage of the temporary bout of cap space they'd have before RFA happened, knowing that they could go over the cap to retain their stars. They took on 30 year old Rajon Rondo's year-in super-max contract in exchange for both of their rookie contracts and some filler. As part of this deal, they also swapped out Omer Asik's expiring contract for Andres Biedrins' contract, which, for a similar quality player, was longer and not really less expensive.
During RFA, they were also able to lock in a long term deal with promising prospect Alec Burks. At 15 million flat per year for four years, Burks looked like a good signing with lots of potential and great athleticism.
After RFA, they bolstered their position by acquiring Paul Millsap in exchange for minimum contracts. Their team looked strong and ready to compete. It was built to compete, and it cost what you'd expect a championship contender to cost, almost 40 million dollars over the cap.
The team finished 38-44 and did not make the playoffs.
Perhaps worried about the tax bill they'd be saddled with, the Grizzlies cut some corners in training camp and Kawhi Leonard and Jimmy Butler, fresh off of max deals, both showed up for the season looking like they both took a couple steps back. Worse yet, Alec Burks struggled with his shooting in camp, and it was apparent that this was not the player they paid for.
Though even at 30, Rondo was an incredible point guard, taking on his contract was a move that would end up looking worse with each passing year. Even if they decline his option for next year's 2018-2019 season, they'll still be adding onto a couple years of unpaid and almost unpayable tax bills.
The 38-44 team accrued a tax bill of 57 points, which they were able to pay off, but though things would get better temporarily, the worst was yet to come.
2016-2017
Determined to make it into the playoffs, the Grizzlies traded their first round draft pick, Aubrey Broomfield, the bird rights for Tony Allen, and Paul Millsap to the Blazers for plug and play defensive puzzler and roster formatting nightmare Luc Richard Mbah A Moute and Carlos Boozer. The Grizz later used the 125% rule to acquire LaMarcus Aldridge from the Mavericks for Boozer along with Andris Biedrins, filler salary, some second rounders, and a point that the miserly Mavs owner for some reason needed to complete the deal.
The Aldridge deal proved significant as the Grizzlies finished with a winning record of 45-37 and found themselves in the playoffs...where they were handily swept by the Spurs. This all came at a price of being 55 million dollars over the cap in their 2nd year repeater status. The 154 point tax bill proved to be too much to pay, pretty much crippling them for the following season.
Present Day
Unable to afford TC insurance, 15 million dollar man Alec Burks continued to decline into an overpaid, mediocre player. He still has one more guaranteed year on his contract and will be hard to move, especially given that the Grizzlies are all out of assets. Their points bank is already owed to the tax for quite some time, and they do not have a pick they can trade until their 2021 becomes available sometime next season. As of this writing, they find themselves just on the wrong side of the playoff cutoff.
Almost vexingly, they agreed to trade LaMarcus Alrdirge's expiring contract for the slightly younger, more balanced Spencer Hawes, adding almost 30 million in salaru they'll have to pay next year. While it cut their bill down on this season slightly, they'll still be looking at around 200 points to add on to their already large 154 point debt.
Next year, they have 4 players under guaranteed contract (plus their 2018 draft pick) and team options on Mbah a Moute and the now-aged Rajon Rondo. Even if the Grizzlies decline those options, they'll be bumping up against the cap with three more roster spaces to fill.
What Next?
OPTION ONE: Trade to reset
With the trade deadline for the 2016-2017 season looming, it'd be hard to imagine the Grizzlies would be able to make any tax-conscious moves this season. Kawhi Leonard and Jimmy Butler both have trade value, but the Grizzlies, as evidenced by the Spencer Hawes trade, might still be in a competing mindset. There are also not very many locations that have the cap space to provide much relief this year and not many locations to boot that would also have a need for a wing like Jimmy or Kawhi. I'd expect to see at least one -- if not both -- of those players moved next offseason. However, with years of uninsured training camps chipping away at their once extraordinary potentials, their trade values have dipped quite a bit. Don't get me wrong...Butler is still a fantastic scorer and Leonard is still a great player, but they are starting to lose the trade value they once had, and not even both combined would translate to a quick fix where there won't be a long, slow, and painful rebuilding process.
OPTION TWO: Trade until you fade
Theoretically, the Grizzlies could try to find trade partners to keep them middlingly competitive year after year. Just trade a contract like Kawhi's to a competing team that's on the cusp of being in a bad tax situation for slightly worse players (or even equivalent or better players) on longer contracts. If the Grizzlies can find a way to win without needing RFA or UFA to contribute to at least their starting lineups, all while staying one step ahead of ever paying back their debts, we know their management is renegade enough to roll those dice until...
OPTION THREE: Skip town
With their backs against the wall, the Grizzlies ownership could sell the team and stick some unlucky waiting list candidate with the huge, tedious project of trying to pay back the Grizzlies' tax bill. 350 points, however, is no easy sum to come up with when your team is out of assets to gain points from winning or having good players. It's a problem that compounds as young players are hurt due to lack of funding to pay good staff for training and losing teams don't really get many points without putting in a lot of work for the league (which is capped to the point where it'd still take almost a decade to acquire enough points this way so that the Grizzlies are out of their hole).
OPTION THREE Part II: Dissolve the Grizzlies
If, and this is just hypothetical, the Grizzlies rack up a bill and stick it on someone else to foot, the league might have to make an important decision to step in and dissolve the Vancouver Grizzlies. In this case, they'd probably be almost immediately rebuilt as an expansion team in Memphis and start from scratch. This would require some voting by league GMs who are feeling pretty generous to a new kid on the block.
OPTION FOUR: 0-82
The Grizzlies could try to put together an unprecedented 0-82 season while grinding out of the tax cellar. I had a teacher in elementary school once who reckoned that if you could get a 0 on a multiple choice test, she'd give you 100 because it proves that you knew the material well enough to know what the answers weren't. The policy was taken away when too many kids would get incredibly low, non-zero test scores by accidentally getting one or two answers right. The Grizzlies could set their aims to do this. History isn't all about being the best. One more Anthony Davis in the draft over the next few years and the Grizzlies could win a championship once he's developed.
Conclusion
The best case scenario for the Grizzlies to escape their tax burden is probably a tanking strategy. Dedicate three or four seasons to gaining points by getting rid of any assets they can and taking more of an observational role by contributing to league media and volunteer jobs. By the fourth or fifth season, they will be able to tank to actually start rebuilding. Until then, they can trade young players and assets for serviceable ones to try to chisel away some wins for points.
The worst case scenario is that it takes a decade for the Grizzlies -- under either current or future management -- to recover. It'll be a painful grind, and it's one that a few seasons of wanton spending can lead to. The league's current stance is that debts are transferrable to new ownership. Debts belong to the team, not the GM. LoCo has shown no signs of wanting to cut and run, and to some (especially PBSL media writers who have been dodging student loans for a decade because you can't pay them off in presser points), he's an intriguing anti-hero. As much as I want to root for the Grizz to game the system to stay competitive without having to pay back that tax, the caveat to that approach is that it makes it that much harder to climb back into the black.
Regardless of what happens, it's going to redefine how we think about points, tax, and ownership of debts in PBSL. If it doesn't, it could lead to a pretty big market crash the way that more and more teams are spinning (and spending) to win each season.
:D:D:D