2016-2017 SLOE Investment Firm: Buy/Sell Recommendations
Posted: Tue Sep 05, 2017 11:49 am
On the heels of last season's SLOEvestment article, we at SLOEvestment Firm are back to bring our recommendations and hopefully improve upon our own accuracy from last year. We whiffed on 2/3 of the Eastern Conference predictions but nailed 5/6 of the Western Conference. Let's see if we can get the East up to match up with our Western Conference prediction prowess.
We will provide 1 Buy and 1 Sell per division (that said, the recommendation could be a clump of teams). And, as always, we will make our predictions based off of a few criteria:
The Atlantic Division
New York Knicks - BUY
Everyone Else - SELL
The New York Knicks (unlike real life) are the cream of the Atlantic crop. Despite all the setbacks they faced in training camp, they've rebounded nicely and have firmly and tightly grabbed this division race by the cajones. We could spend plenty of time looking deep into the remaining schedule, at their home and away records, their close-out, etc. but honestly, barring any insane injuries (donaldglovercollarpull.gif), this team should be in the running for best team in the division by far and the runaway #3 seed in the playoffs. As for the rest of this division, don't even bother. Not a single one of these teams has a .500 record on the road. Moreso, every single team (outside of the 76ers who are already discussing writing this season off by selling pieces) has more away games than home games. Someone will emerge as the least stinkiest poop of the pile, and my guess is the Nets. But for all investment intents and purposes, sell sell sell sell sell.
The Central Division
Detroit Pistons - BUY
Chicago Bulls - SELL
The Detroit Pistons have Anthony Davis back, 100% healthy and scaring the shit out of the rest of the league. They are 3-7 in their last 10, but have also played 12 of their last 15 games on the road. With the heavily favorable schedule of more home games than road games to look forward to, the Pistons have a chance to be a standings riser over the last few months of the season. Their schedule to close out the season is middle-tier difficulty, with a dash of hard hitters and a dash of powder puffs. All in all, they are the Central Division's team to watch. For this sell pick, it was between the Bucks and the Bulls. The Bucks started out on fiyah going 18-2, before coming back down to earth to 26-10. The Chicago Bulls limped a little out the gate, starting 5-3... but then went on a hot streak of 14 wins in a row. Halfway through January, they are sitting pretty with a record of 32-7, 4.5 games ahead of the Bucks. I was ready to go all in on the Bucks being the early riser, late season-faller for the Central... but then I looked at the Bulls end of season schedule. 6 home games, 12 road games. ADDITIONALLY... 11 of those 18 teams are .500 or better at the moment. Of those 11 games, 7 of those games are on the road. Those 11 games also include the Hawks twice, Clippers twice, Knicks twice, Bucks twice, Pistons and semi-surging defending Central Division/Eastern Conf Champ Pacers. Yikes. If Bulls make it through that (and they have the power on their team to do it), they deserve the Central crown. But that is a gauntlet, and it's not going to be pretty... and it's possible the division could slip from their grasps during that stretch.
The Southeast Division
Atlanta Hawks - BUY
Washington Wizards - SELL
Man, you thought the Atlantic was bad... the Southeast Division makes it look like the Central and Pacific divisions of old. This division is a joke. If you haven't bought Atlanta yet, you are playing from behind. Buy them now, and buy them quick. Let's move to the sell category. It would be easy to just say "everyone else" like I did with the Atlantic. But the Atlantic has a lot of shades of gray: talented teams attempting to compete whilst rebuilding. The Southeast's heaping pile of dung has a bit of that too with the Magic. They have teams all out trying to tank and rebuild in the Heat and Bobcats. Then we have the Washington Wizards. Lots of youth on that team. Lots of bigs. But not a lot of direction. This is unfortunate, because I know the Wizards are a very well-respected and competitive organization in the league. However, in going all-in in seasons past, they no longer have their draft pick this season, and are doing just about everything they can to keep that out of the top 5. While it's working at the moment, what direction will this organization go. They have some big contracts coming off the books this offseason, which may help with their starting the next chapter. But does that new chapter start with a bottom-feeding team looking for lotto luck or a team looking to sign a superstar in UFA and bounce back? So much uncertainty makes us at SLOE Investment Firm hesitant to do anything but sell.
The Northwest Division
Denver Nuggets - BUY
Utah Jazz - SELL
Timberwolves are looking VERY good right now. They are the team to beat in the Mi-- Northwest Division. That said, the Nuggets have started to pick up a little steam. Sluggish after the Ron Artest trade on 12/16, the Nuggets seemed to come together a little more since the new year started. Expect a rough rest of January though, as almost all of the remaining January games are on the road (2 home, 6 road between now and February 2nd). However, once that is past, the Nuggets have a sweet spot in their schedule with 8 straight home games. The Nuggets have a chance to make a nice little run here going into March, where just about 60% of the games (8 of 14) are against teams that are currently under .500. April closes out with 7 home games and 5 road games. It's not a far gone conclusion that the Nuggets will win the Northwest, but they will definitely be one of the teams to trending upwards as the season comes to a close. The Jazz, on the other hand, seem to be spiraling out of control. Their big 3 is doing what they can, but the lack of depth in the front court, as well as at the shooting guard spot, is not helping them at this point. And their schedule only gets tougher. March features 9 away games and 7 home games. April features 10 games, 9 of which are against teams that are presently over .500. Things are not looking good in Utah... and rumblings around the league are that Paul George is getting a little restless. Sell now, before he demands a trade.
The Pacific Division
Los Angeles Clippers - BUY
Los Angeles Lakers - SELL
L.A. is a city of glitz and glamour, and the Clippers are fitting in just right there with their nice little 11-game win streak they have going on right now. Some may attribute their recent stretch to the cupcake schedule they've had since December 16th (11 games out of 15 against teams who are currently under .500); however, they have the almighty Kevin Durant, one of the most dominant offensive weapons in this game. They have more home games than away games remaining. But the cherry on top is the close out schedule. 8 of the 11 April games are against presently .500 or worse teams. Clippers aren't going to push for the division, but they won't be going away anytime soon. Sadly, the other L.A. team, isn't going anywhere either.. in a bad way. Between Embiid coming into training camp out of shape (and subsequently getting hurt due to it) and not having their own pick in this draft, the Lakers are starting at a top 5 lotto spot with nothing to show. One could argue this team is still growing and that Giannis and Gustave (THE DOUBLE Gs) are the future and that it's bright, but things are bleak this season. At least they have the Wizards pick, which could maybe yield something decent (although college scouts are calling the upcoming class one of the most lackluster in recent history).
The Southwest Division
San Antonio Spurs - BUY
VanMemphis Grizzlies - SELL
The Pelicans were almost my pick, but I decided to recommend the Spurs. Outside of February, their schedule is packed to the brim with home games during one of the most important times of the year. This could help them lock up the Division before the last week of the season. That February stretch is where they will be tested most, however, with 9 away games (a 4-game and a 5-game road trip) and 6 home games. Of those 9 road games, 5 are against .500 or better squads, including the Warriors twice and the Bucks once. Their home games aren't much better with the Clippers once and Hawks once. They are fortunate enough to have some bobcat road kill sprinkled in the middle though. For April, their schedule features 7 (out of 10) games with teams hailing .500 or less records. Like I said, the Spurs can lock the division up before the month of April, but if they are indeed in a heated race, the scheduling gawds looked favorably upon the churro-eating women of San Antonio and their beloved squad. The Grizzlies went all in, sending out 2 picks and youth for Carlos Boozer and defensive stalwart Luc Mbah A Moute. Luc is finally getting healthy, and the Grizz are thankful for that, as they are hoping he can help pull them out of the rut their pick-less season has fallen into. But For March and April, their schedule is not friendly. 15 road games and 11 home games does not look good for them. To make things worse, their April schedule features 8 over-.500 teams, including division foe Spurs twice, Warriors, Clippers, Nuggets, Knicks, Suns, and Thunder (each once a piece). While some would be hopeful that Luc would help lift this team out of the Southwestern cellar where they and the Mavs have been hanging for the past couple seasons, March and April alone are blinking/flashing signs saying SELL SELL SELL.
We will provide 1 Buy and 1 Sell per division (that said, the recommendation could be a clump of teams). And, as always, we will make our predictions based off of a few criteria:
- Home record vs away record thus far
- Home vs away schedule remaining
- April close-out schedule
- Difficulty of schedule thus far
The Atlantic Division
New York Knicks - BUY
Everyone Else - SELL
The New York Knicks (unlike real life) are the cream of the Atlantic crop. Despite all the setbacks they faced in training camp, they've rebounded nicely and have firmly and tightly grabbed this division race by the cajones. We could spend plenty of time looking deep into the remaining schedule, at their home and away records, their close-out, etc. but honestly, barring any insane injuries (donaldglovercollarpull.gif), this team should be in the running for best team in the division by far and the runaway #3 seed in the playoffs. As for the rest of this division, don't even bother. Not a single one of these teams has a .500 record on the road. Moreso, every single team (outside of the 76ers who are already discussing writing this season off by selling pieces) has more away games than home games. Someone will emerge as the least stinkiest poop of the pile, and my guess is the Nets. But for all investment intents and purposes, sell sell sell sell sell.
The Central Division
Detroit Pistons - BUY
Chicago Bulls - SELL
The Detroit Pistons have Anthony Davis back, 100% healthy and scaring the shit out of the rest of the league. They are 3-7 in their last 10, but have also played 12 of their last 15 games on the road. With the heavily favorable schedule of more home games than road games to look forward to, the Pistons have a chance to be a standings riser over the last few months of the season. Their schedule to close out the season is middle-tier difficulty, with a dash of hard hitters and a dash of powder puffs. All in all, they are the Central Division's team to watch. For this sell pick, it was between the Bucks and the Bulls. The Bucks started out on fiyah going 18-2, before coming back down to earth to 26-10. The Chicago Bulls limped a little out the gate, starting 5-3... but then went on a hot streak of 14 wins in a row. Halfway through January, they are sitting pretty with a record of 32-7, 4.5 games ahead of the Bucks. I was ready to go all in on the Bucks being the early riser, late season-faller for the Central... but then I looked at the Bulls end of season schedule. 6 home games, 12 road games. ADDITIONALLY... 11 of those 18 teams are .500 or better at the moment. Of those 11 games, 7 of those games are on the road. Those 11 games also include the Hawks twice, Clippers twice, Knicks twice, Bucks twice, Pistons and semi-surging defending Central Division/Eastern Conf Champ Pacers. Yikes. If Bulls make it through that (and they have the power on their team to do it), they deserve the Central crown. But that is a gauntlet, and it's not going to be pretty... and it's possible the division could slip from their grasps during that stretch.
The Southeast Division
Atlanta Hawks - BUY
Washington Wizards - SELL
Man, you thought the Atlantic was bad... the Southeast Division makes it look like the Central and Pacific divisions of old. This division is a joke. If you haven't bought Atlanta yet, you are playing from behind. Buy them now, and buy them quick. Let's move to the sell category. It would be easy to just say "everyone else" like I did with the Atlantic. But the Atlantic has a lot of shades of gray: talented teams attempting to compete whilst rebuilding. The Southeast's heaping pile of dung has a bit of that too with the Magic. They have teams all out trying to tank and rebuild in the Heat and Bobcats. Then we have the Washington Wizards. Lots of youth on that team. Lots of bigs. But not a lot of direction. This is unfortunate, because I know the Wizards are a very well-respected and competitive organization in the league. However, in going all-in in seasons past, they no longer have their draft pick this season, and are doing just about everything they can to keep that out of the top 5. While it's working at the moment, what direction will this organization go. They have some big contracts coming off the books this offseason, which may help with their starting the next chapter. But does that new chapter start with a bottom-feeding team looking for lotto luck or a team looking to sign a superstar in UFA and bounce back? So much uncertainty makes us at SLOE Investment Firm hesitant to do anything but sell.
The Northwest Division
Denver Nuggets - BUY
Utah Jazz - SELL
Timberwolves are looking VERY good right now. They are the team to beat in the Mi-- Northwest Division. That said, the Nuggets have started to pick up a little steam. Sluggish after the Ron Artest trade on 12/16, the Nuggets seemed to come together a little more since the new year started. Expect a rough rest of January though, as almost all of the remaining January games are on the road (2 home, 6 road between now and February 2nd). However, once that is past, the Nuggets have a sweet spot in their schedule with 8 straight home games. The Nuggets have a chance to make a nice little run here going into March, where just about 60% of the games (8 of 14) are against teams that are currently under .500. April closes out with 7 home games and 5 road games. It's not a far gone conclusion that the Nuggets will win the Northwest, but they will definitely be one of the teams to trending upwards as the season comes to a close. The Jazz, on the other hand, seem to be spiraling out of control. Their big 3 is doing what they can, but the lack of depth in the front court, as well as at the shooting guard spot, is not helping them at this point. And their schedule only gets tougher. March features 9 away games and 7 home games. April features 10 games, 9 of which are against teams that are presently over .500. Things are not looking good in Utah... and rumblings around the league are that Paul George is getting a little restless. Sell now, before he demands a trade.
The Pacific Division
Los Angeles Clippers - BUY
Los Angeles Lakers - SELL
L.A. is a city of glitz and glamour, and the Clippers are fitting in just right there with their nice little 11-game win streak they have going on right now. Some may attribute their recent stretch to the cupcake schedule they've had since December 16th (11 games out of 15 against teams who are currently under .500); however, they have the almighty Kevin Durant, one of the most dominant offensive weapons in this game. They have more home games than away games remaining. But the cherry on top is the close out schedule. 8 of the 11 April games are against presently .500 or worse teams. Clippers aren't going to push for the division, but they won't be going away anytime soon. Sadly, the other L.A. team, isn't going anywhere either.. in a bad way. Between Embiid coming into training camp out of shape (and subsequently getting hurt due to it) and not having their own pick in this draft, the Lakers are starting at a top 5 lotto spot with nothing to show. One could argue this team is still growing and that Giannis and Gustave (THE DOUBLE Gs) are the future and that it's bright, but things are bleak this season. At least they have the Wizards pick, which could maybe yield something decent (although college scouts are calling the upcoming class one of the most lackluster in recent history).
The Southwest Division
San Antonio Spurs - BUY
VanMemphis Grizzlies - SELL
The Pelicans were almost my pick, but I decided to recommend the Spurs. Outside of February, their schedule is packed to the brim with home games during one of the most important times of the year. This could help them lock up the Division before the last week of the season. That February stretch is where they will be tested most, however, with 9 away games (a 4-game and a 5-game road trip) and 6 home games. Of those 9 road games, 5 are against .500 or better squads, including the Warriors twice and the Bucks once. Their home games aren't much better with the Clippers once and Hawks once. They are fortunate enough to have some bobcat road kill sprinkled in the middle though. For April, their schedule features 7 (out of 10) games with teams hailing .500 or less records. Like I said, the Spurs can lock the division up before the month of April, but if they are indeed in a heated race, the scheduling gawds looked favorably upon the churro-eating women of San Antonio and their beloved squad. The Grizzlies went all in, sending out 2 picks and youth for Carlos Boozer and defensive stalwart Luc Mbah A Moute. Luc is finally getting healthy, and the Grizz are thankful for that, as they are hoping he can help pull them out of the rut their pick-less season has fallen into. But For March and April, their schedule is not friendly. 15 road games and 11 home games does not look good for them. To make things worse, their April schedule features 8 over-.500 teams, including division foe Spurs twice, Warriors, Clippers, Nuggets, Knicks, Suns, and Thunder (each once a piece). While some would be hopeful that Luc would help lift this team out of the Southwestern cellar where they and the Mavs have been hanging for the past couple seasons, March and April alone are blinking/flashing signs saying SELL SELL SELL.