The Lazy Statistician Looks At Each Team By Averaging Their Roster's Attributes Together
Posted: Fri Aug 25, 2017 3:37 pm
The Lazy Statistician, Episode 2
The lazy statistician is back to kick off the 2016-2017 PBSL season, and today, we're going to take a look at a colorful spreadsheet I made. It features the average player's attributes on a per team basis. I've also color-coded the cells to show which teams players, on average, are terrible (red), below average (orange), above average (yellow), and excellent (green), relative to the rest of the league.
The spreadsheet is default sorted by the total number of attribute points a team's average player has.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing
Before we see what lessons we can take from this, let's start out with the caveats:
With such a small sample size, the number of players on a team will affect the results. The Lakers are on top of this sheet, but they only have 8 players...once that Shane Larkin trade goes through, they'll probably dive a little bit because they're getting two vet min players in return. Notice how teams that stack up on vet mins all kind of hover at the bottom because they have more players who probably won't see a minute of playing time.
Another thing to note is that this sheet does not weight playing time in any way. Your superstar's attributes are going to count the same as the guy you're IR-ing for the season. I suppose I could have put in a simple weighting system that uses the color rating system to assume that blues are going to get more minutes than yellows and come up with an arbitrary weighting adjustment, but they don't call me the lazy statistician for nothing.
Finally, there were some trades that happened that weren't processed before I pulled the data, but I'm not redoing the spreadsheet because Chet Goddamn Dooley is on the 76ers now.
Anyway, let's go team by team and see what we can learn from this sheet, and let's do this without looking at the rosters. I'll go in alphabetical order by team to give no preferential treatment by division and so the article won't start out with a bunch of "THIS TEAM IS REAL GOOD AT EVERYTHING" and end with "THIS TEAM IS REALLY BAD AT EVERYTHING."
Atlanta Hawks
THIS TEAM IS REAL GOOD AT EVERYTHING.
Seriously. There really aren't any weak spots on this team. They're 15 players deep, and holding the second highest average player total with a maxed roster is just scary. They'll be solid on both ends of the floor, and I expect a high-motion offense (they're the best at passing by a pretty insane margin) with a lot of firepower from beyond the arc. While athleticism is not particularly lacking, it's the one area that doesn't look as great as their offense or defense, but you can't have everything, right?
Boston Celtics
THIS TEAM IS REAL BAD AT EVERYTHING.
See how this article is interesting because you never know what's coming next? It's not meant a bash on the Celtics. They've got a good GM who has been busy, and it looks like Conroy is entering a rebuild around Wall, and he's going to make Mexico pay for it (or Houston, by way of Faried and a pick). The Celtics are going to need some offense this year, and they're going to need some defense. It does, however, look like rebounding and athleticism show some promise. The team is an anomaly to me with only 9 players, but I expect this season to be less about what's on this sheet and more about what they can do with the cap space they have to leverage their way into pieces for the future.
Brooklyn Nets
THIS TEAM IS IN THE MIDDLE!
Wow. What a rollercoaster of emotions this article has taken us on already. In any case, according to the sheet, the Nets aren't terrible at anything, but they're not over-the-top excellent at anything either...except maybe free throws. Their athleticism is a little below average...especially their jump, so it'll be tough for them to get to the line to exploit that strength. They'll be an interesting team to watch. They've been out of the post-season for a while now, and I think they're right near the top of that hill they've been struggling to climb over.
Charlotte Bobcats
The Bobcats will surely move in the right direction, although I'd be slightly more impressed if they could manage to win less than 7 games this year. While their roster is very much on par with where you'd expect a 2nd year expansion team to be, you can see that a few areas of their game are starting to show little rays of promise. Their offensive rebounding looks to be their strongest attribute, which should help because their jump shooting and three point shooting are both abysmal.
Chicago Bulls
On paper, the Bulls look really solid, and are probably one vet min contract dump away from making the excellent team rank according to this spreadsheet. Their bright spots look to shine most strongly in their backcourt with very high ratings in perimeter defense and steals. Both starting guards are also strong inside scorers. They do get a red for financial responsibility and a medium orange for humility.
Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cavaliers are a very interesting team this year. I think they made a very good trade with the Nuggets to drop Al Jefferson's contract in exchange for some more starting lineup depth, gaining Ersan Ilyasove and Al-Farooq Aminu. Without that move, Cleveland is in a much worse spot...if not record-wise this season, definitely in the future. This move makes them competitive this year, and I'd wager they could see the playoffs (although this chart doesn't recognize how tough the Central Division will be). There are still some holes in the Cavs game, though. While they'll be a threat from the outside and a team with solid backcourt defense, I expect them to have trouble against teams with big men who can do some damage on the inside, and they'll need to be hitting those shots without Big Al cleaning the glass.
Dallas Mavericks
The Mavs are coming off of a disappointing season after a surprisingly good season because things are topsy-turvy in Dallas. They've got LaMarcus Aldridge, DeMar DeRozan, and Bradley Beal (on a steal of a deal), but beyond that, not too much to help them out this year. Their defense will be pretty bad all around, but their athleticism could keep them in the hunt for a low playoff spot if they play their cards right. They've also got solid rebounding on their roster, but overall, I see them finishing like Aaron Lewis...on the outside, looking in.
Denver Nuggets
I think the Denver Nuggets are an example of why you can't base everything off of a lazy statistician's spreadsheet. It ranks the team as slightly above average with below average marks in rebounding and post defense. However, they have Andre Drummond and Al Jefferson. Their perimeter defense and steals, though, are excellent. I think this is a case that shows that you'll excel in the areas where your role players are more focused. Overall, I think the Nuggets finish as a playoff team, but maybe not as a division leader, so I think the sheet gets at least that much right.
Detroit Pistons
Anthony Davis is well on his way to challenging Kevin Love for the title of best player in the league. Unfortunately for the Pistons, they still need more around him. One guy...even one guy who's good at everything...can't pull the team up in every area. Their offense will look solid, but they'll need more guys who can defend, especially in a tough division. They're on their way to doing better than last year, but they're not quite ready to compete yet.
Golden State Warriors
The old adage that offense wins games but defense wins championships holds true to the Warriors and their twin towers approach to defending. They rank first overall in defensive rebounding and second in post defense, and if you look at the top ranked teams overall, these are the two areas where excellent ratings are really concentrated. As a basement team in the league last year, they struggled on offense, and chances are, they will still have their troubles there, but they've added Kyle Lowry and Rudy Gay, who will help rack up the points, although probably not enough to change their identity from a defensive powerhouse.
Houston Rockets
The Rockets, as per usual, have a pretty solid team all around at first glance. The areas where they excel, however, are a strange combination of jump shooting, handling, and quickness. Their defense is good, but definitely not in that championship tier. I'd be surprised if they didn't make the playoffs this year with their sturdiness overall, but I wouldn't be surprised to be surprised if you catch my drift.
Indiana Pacers
The best team in the league last year doesn't initially look like the best team in the league this year, but they look good enough to have at least a coin flip shot at taking the Central Division again. Their average player is above average pretty much everywhere. They've got a nice, balanced team, but some quirks, like the lack of a true starting PF show chinks in their armor that aren't as readily apparent from this spreadsheet. Indiana will have to rely on some non-attributional intangibles to push them as far as they went last year, but their not terrible in any area, so they'll be a challenge to any team with an area to exploit.
Los Angeles Clippers
The lazy statistician's spreadsheet is incredibly harsh on the Clippers. It puts them slightly below the similarly built Pistons. I was so much baffled by this, I had to break my rule and look at their roster to find out why. It's a pretty full roster, and there are plenty of guys on it who probably won't get to touch the ball this year. So I have to say here, the spreadsheet is a little over-bleak on LAC. However, another thing I did notice is that they don't have a lot of players who are competent in areas you wouldn't expect them to be. They have a lot of guards who don't rebound and a lot of bigs who won't factor into the offensive end.
Los Angeles Lakers
Meanwhile, in LA, the Lakers look fantastic on this spreadsheet. Their team is super lean because they've cut down to an 8 man roster like the regular season is the playoffs. Thus, all of their players are around starter quality. I imagine this would be the baseline and not the front runner over a minutes-weighted spreadsheet, but there's no denying that the Lakers rebuild does look like it's moving in the right direction. I think they'll be a lock on a playoff team, barring injury, even with all the statistical noise that comparing them with other teams that have full benches creates.
Miami Heat
In a reset tax year, the Miami Heat are whittled down to expiring LeBron, Jonas Valancuinas (sp?) and god knows who else (Marcus Thornton?). By all accounts, the Heat look like there's no way they can keep reaching the conference finals, but it's really hard to count out a team that has LeBron James. He may not get as much notice as KD or Love, but he can play four positions and dominate. We keep waiting for the tax-based peeling away of the Heat's roster will lead to a drop-off in wins, but it doesn't happen. It defies logic, so take their low positioning on this sheet with a grain of salt.
Milwaukee Bucks
The Milwaukee Bucks find themselves smack-dab in the middle of the spreadsheet. They still have enough talent to be a playoff team, but probably not the playoff team that sent the Hawks packing in round one last year. They're in a weird half-rebuild, half-go-for-it state that is arguably worse than being in all-rebuild mode, and the sheet shows that. I think they're going to be a team that's easy to score on as they've got a few holes that can be exploited in their lineup. Still, they've got enough talent to be above average, if not complete.
Minnesota Timberwolves
The Timberwolves had a rough training camp, and their roster doesn't look as deep, but they do have an interesting roster that leaves them strong in a number of areas. They're the quickest team on average, the best ball handlers, and the quickest team out there. Their defense isn't bad, but it's nothing to write home about. Expect them to have an untraditionally good offense by way of ball movement to create their own shots rather than pure range or grit in the paint.
New Orleans Pelicans
The Pelicans were an unexpected choice to win the championship last year. They overcame a hard road to do that, but as this spreadsheet shows, they've put together a very solid team that excels at defensive rebounding and post defense, which as I stated previously, seem to correlate heavily with teams that are championship material. They're also a very athletic team with good offensive ability. On paper, it looks like a team that's strong on perimeter scoring has the best chance of toppling the Pelicans this year.
New York Knicks
The Gary Harris for Chet Dooley swap may give the Knicks some better chances here, but their defense has taken a huge hit with the loss of Luc M'bah a Moute through free agency and the dismal training camp woes for John Henson. They took the Atlantic easily last year, but I think this year, it'll be much more of a struggle. Hopefully, their offensive gains will keep them competitive. They're good at shooting, handling, and passing, but they'll need to do that all very well to offset what other teams will do to them.
Oklahoma City Thunder
I think the Thunder will make a big leap this year. They've put together a roster with much better balance, and with the recent acquisition of Danny Green, they have a really strong starting 5 that should be able to rack up a lot of points with their shooting and passing. The intangibles make the Thunder a little weaker (fraternal twin tower approach with Vucevic being the more towering twin, their PG being great but short), but they should still be a strong team...perhaps even a division leading team with the right game planning. Their weakest spot right now is probably their athleticism. Their stamina is solid, but the other athletic areas could use some help overall as none of them stick out.
Orlando Magic
The Magic are pretty much where we'd expect them: in the red zone. That's for a few reasons. Even with the acquisition of more seasoned players like Tyreke, Mozgov, and Bogut, the Magic's strengths still lie in the future with the development of guys like Desantis and Ellinger. They also do a lot of moving and shaking with their roster and aren't afraid to dip their wicks in the free agent pool to try to pick up dudes they can dish out for points. They're still too young and fluid to have developed an identity, but that will come in time.
Philadelphia 76ers
The simputer likes the 76ers a hell of a lot more than the lazy statistician's spreadsheet. The spreadsheet thinks their offense needs work. The spreadsheet thinks their defense needs work. But the spreadsheet is also pretty low on the Eastern Conference in general, which could help the 76ers out a bit. Kenneth Henderson was recently snubbed by a popular podcast as one of the most desirable players under 25 (he is), and a fantastic overall training camp has Gordon Hayward looking A-OK-ward. Perhaps the Harris/Dooley trade sunk them a little bit on this spreadsheet, but they're in a good spot with a seasoned GM who has beat the game before. They could be a playoff team this year. I wouldn't bet too much on that, but even if you don't listen to my advice and that bet pays, I would advise not going double-or-nothing on Philly in the first round.
Phoenix Suns
Of the four teams that are built around one incredible player, the Suns fare the best. They surrounded Love with a lot of one year contracts--aging competitors who can still play well--and Love helps drag them up to be a really good looking team. There are some areas where Love is going to have to do the lion's share of the work, still: rebounding, inside scoring, and a lot of the dirty jobs that Mike Rowe talks about, so a lot of this season is based on how much load Love can shoulder. Without him, I'm guessing the Suns sheet looks a lot redder.
Portland Trailblazers
Oh, what a difference a Luc makes. The Blazers put a solid team around Derrick Rose this year, and I expect them to be really competitive. M'bah a Moute's impact alone ups their defensive skills to elite-level in comparison to the rest of the league. The one thing they're lacking? Three point shooting. They'll get the bulk of their points from inside, so they're not impossible to strategize against, but they're good enough where they'll win in spite of that. The playoffs, however, will surely test the team's mettle, assuming they'll make it there, which I am.
Sacramento Kings
The Kings took a huge leap last year, but it's possible that was a blip. They had a handful of very productive 1-year, 4 million dollar contracts that turned their team around, and without those contracts, the Kings look like they could slide back to mere princedom. Their offense could use some work, and their defense could also use some work. However, they have some cap space to spare and used wisely, they could help their cause now or in the future. I expect them to dip back out of the playoff picture, especially with a few teams out West making huge bounds forward.
San Antonio Spurs
The most striking thing to me about the Spurs is that their inside scoring is a few standard deviations above the mean. They will undoubtedly be a terrifying force inside (which balances out their inability to make shots). They rebound very well, but their defense has some gaps in it. Their GM can work a successful team around Westbrook and Josh Smith, but it's still not going to be a cakewalk into the playoffs for San Antonio.
Toronto Raptors
The Raptors have abandoned the Lowry/Bosh experiment, and as such, it's probably back to the drawing board for them. With 6 picks in the next three drafts, they look to be in rebuild mode around the still-growing monster that is Hassan Whiteside. Other than that, though, their roster has some good players, but not any real difference-makers. The Raptors will struggle a little more than they did last year, when a team led by Bosh and Lowry nabbed a lower playoff spot than a team with both of those players would want to expect.
Utah Jazz
The Jazz have a lot of holes in their team for Paul George to try to fill, and for a team deep in the repeater tax, that's not a good look. They should be looking to sell unless they think they can contend for a ring, but they should be able to cover their tax bill regardless on the strength of PG. There are spots here and there where they stack up well, but too many where they land below average. Their strongest suit seems to be three point shooting, but that could easily be an artifact of not having a real center, having a good stretch 4 in Ryan Anderson, and having a lot more players in the backcourt than the frontcourt.
Vancouver Grizzlies
The Grizzlies find themselves on this spreadsheet in a position they've been locked into for the past several years. They're just on the border of playoff contention, and it shows in the offensive categories. Their defense and athleticism is solid, and that is exactly where their combo of Jimmy Butler and Kawhi Leonard excel, but for the money they're spending, they're going to need to make some moves. Their best inside scorer is Randolph Morris with a 60 rating, and the three outside shooters they have who are rated at least a B, currently, all play the same spot. The Grizz ownership seems confident that they'll muster through, but the lazy statistician is less so, even if he'd like to see the Grizzlies fare better.
Washington Wizards
Currently in rebuild mode, as backed up by the colors on the spreadsheet, the Wizards don't fare as well in the big man categories as you'd expect for a team with so many players at 7 feet or over on their roster. However, those players are all young and need some time to develop. Offense and defense are both below average from a league-wide standpoint, but it's no secret the Wiz are looking to sell. Nothing remarkable to point out here, but their low status on this lists opens up a playoff spot, most likely, for one of the many hungry teams on the East who have been tapping at the surface.
The lazy statistician is back to kick off the 2016-2017 PBSL season, and today, we're going to take a look at a colorful spreadsheet I made. It features the average player's attributes on a per team basis. I've also color-coded the cells to show which teams players, on average, are terrible (red), below average (orange), above average (yellow), and excellent (green), relative to the rest of the league.
The spreadsheet is default sorted by the total number of attribute points a team's average player has.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing
Before we see what lessons we can take from this, let's start out with the caveats:
With such a small sample size, the number of players on a team will affect the results. The Lakers are on top of this sheet, but they only have 8 players...once that Shane Larkin trade goes through, they'll probably dive a little bit because they're getting two vet min players in return. Notice how teams that stack up on vet mins all kind of hover at the bottom because they have more players who probably won't see a minute of playing time.
Another thing to note is that this sheet does not weight playing time in any way. Your superstar's attributes are going to count the same as the guy you're IR-ing for the season. I suppose I could have put in a simple weighting system that uses the color rating system to assume that blues are going to get more minutes than yellows and come up with an arbitrary weighting adjustment, but they don't call me the lazy statistician for nothing.
Finally, there were some trades that happened that weren't processed before I pulled the data, but I'm not redoing the spreadsheet because Chet Goddamn Dooley is on the 76ers now.
Anyway, let's go team by team and see what we can learn from this sheet, and let's do this without looking at the rosters. I'll go in alphabetical order by team to give no preferential treatment by division and so the article won't start out with a bunch of "THIS TEAM IS REAL GOOD AT EVERYTHING" and end with "THIS TEAM IS REALLY BAD AT EVERYTHING."
Atlanta Hawks
THIS TEAM IS REAL GOOD AT EVERYTHING.
Seriously. There really aren't any weak spots on this team. They're 15 players deep, and holding the second highest average player total with a maxed roster is just scary. They'll be solid on both ends of the floor, and I expect a high-motion offense (they're the best at passing by a pretty insane margin) with a lot of firepower from beyond the arc. While athleticism is not particularly lacking, it's the one area that doesn't look as great as their offense or defense, but you can't have everything, right?
Boston Celtics
THIS TEAM IS REAL BAD AT EVERYTHING.
See how this article is interesting because you never know what's coming next? It's not meant a bash on the Celtics. They've got a good GM who has been busy, and it looks like Conroy is entering a rebuild around Wall, and he's going to make Mexico pay for it (or Houston, by way of Faried and a pick). The Celtics are going to need some offense this year, and they're going to need some defense. It does, however, look like rebounding and athleticism show some promise. The team is an anomaly to me with only 9 players, but I expect this season to be less about what's on this sheet and more about what they can do with the cap space they have to leverage their way into pieces for the future.
Brooklyn Nets
THIS TEAM IS IN THE MIDDLE!
Wow. What a rollercoaster of emotions this article has taken us on already. In any case, according to the sheet, the Nets aren't terrible at anything, but they're not over-the-top excellent at anything either...except maybe free throws. Their athleticism is a little below average...especially their jump, so it'll be tough for them to get to the line to exploit that strength. They'll be an interesting team to watch. They've been out of the post-season for a while now, and I think they're right near the top of that hill they've been struggling to climb over.
Charlotte Bobcats
The Bobcats will surely move in the right direction, although I'd be slightly more impressed if they could manage to win less than 7 games this year. While their roster is very much on par with where you'd expect a 2nd year expansion team to be, you can see that a few areas of their game are starting to show little rays of promise. Their offensive rebounding looks to be their strongest attribute, which should help because their jump shooting and three point shooting are both abysmal.
Chicago Bulls
On paper, the Bulls look really solid, and are probably one vet min contract dump away from making the excellent team rank according to this spreadsheet. Their bright spots look to shine most strongly in their backcourt with very high ratings in perimeter defense and steals. Both starting guards are also strong inside scorers. They do get a red for financial responsibility and a medium orange for humility.
Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cavaliers are a very interesting team this year. I think they made a very good trade with the Nuggets to drop Al Jefferson's contract in exchange for some more starting lineup depth, gaining Ersan Ilyasove and Al-Farooq Aminu. Without that move, Cleveland is in a much worse spot...if not record-wise this season, definitely in the future. This move makes them competitive this year, and I'd wager they could see the playoffs (although this chart doesn't recognize how tough the Central Division will be). There are still some holes in the Cavs game, though. While they'll be a threat from the outside and a team with solid backcourt defense, I expect them to have trouble against teams with big men who can do some damage on the inside, and they'll need to be hitting those shots without Big Al cleaning the glass.
Dallas Mavericks
The Mavs are coming off of a disappointing season after a surprisingly good season because things are topsy-turvy in Dallas. They've got LaMarcus Aldridge, DeMar DeRozan, and Bradley Beal (on a steal of a deal), but beyond that, not too much to help them out this year. Their defense will be pretty bad all around, but their athleticism could keep them in the hunt for a low playoff spot if they play their cards right. They've also got solid rebounding on their roster, but overall, I see them finishing like Aaron Lewis...on the outside, looking in.
Denver Nuggets
I think the Denver Nuggets are an example of why you can't base everything off of a lazy statistician's spreadsheet. It ranks the team as slightly above average with below average marks in rebounding and post defense. However, they have Andre Drummond and Al Jefferson. Their perimeter defense and steals, though, are excellent. I think this is a case that shows that you'll excel in the areas where your role players are more focused. Overall, I think the Nuggets finish as a playoff team, but maybe not as a division leader, so I think the sheet gets at least that much right.
Detroit Pistons
Anthony Davis is well on his way to challenging Kevin Love for the title of best player in the league. Unfortunately for the Pistons, they still need more around him. One guy...even one guy who's good at everything...can't pull the team up in every area. Their offense will look solid, but they'll need more guys who can defend, especially in a tough division. They're on their way to doing better than last year, but they're not quite ready to compete yet.
Golden State Warriors
The old adage that offense wins games but defense wins championships holds true to the Warriors and their twin towers approach to defending. They rank first overall in defensive rebounding and second in post defense, and if you look at the top ranked teams overall, these are the two areas where excellent ratings are really concentrated. As a basement team in the league last year, they struggled on offense, and chances are, they will still have their troubles there, but they've added Kyle Lowry and Rudy Gay, who will help rack up the points, although probably not enough to change their identity from a defensive powerhouse.
Houston Rockets
The Rockets, as per usual, have a pretty solid team all around at first glance. The areas where they excel, however, are a strange combination of jump shooting, handling, and quickness. Their defense is good, but definitely not in that championship tier. I'd be surprised if they didn't make the playoffs this year with their sturdiness overall, but I wouldn't be surprised to be surprised if you catch my drift.
Indiana Pacers
The best team in the league last year doesn't initially look like the best team in the league this year, but they look good enough to have at least a coin flip shot at taking the Central Division again. Their average player is above average pretty much everywhere. They've got a nice, balanced team, but some quirks, like the lack of a true starting PF show chinks in their armor that aren't as readily apparent from this spreadsheet. Indiana will have to rely on some non-attributional intangibles to push them as far as they went last year, but their not terrible in any area, so they'll be a challenge to any team with an area to exploit.
Los Angeles Clippers
The lazy statistician's spreadsheet is incredibly harsh on the Clippers. It puts them slightly below the similarly built Pistons. I was so much baffled by this, I had to break my rule and look at their roster to find out why. It's a pretty full roster, and there are plenty of guys on it who probably won't get to touch the ball this year. So I have to say here, the spreadsheet is a little over-bleak on LAC. However, another thing I did notice is that they don't have a lot of players who are competent in areas you wouldn't expect them to be. They have a lot of guards who don't rebound and a lot of bigs who won't factor into the offensive end.
Los Angeles Lakers
Meanwhile, in LA, the Lakers look fantastic on this spreadsheet. Their team is super lean because they've cut down to an 8 man roster like the regular season is the playoffs. Thus, all of their players are around starter quality. I imagine this would be the baseline and not the front runner over a minutes-weighted spreadsheet, but there's no denying that the Lakers rebuild does look like it's moving in the right direction. I think they'll be a lock on a playoff team, barring injury, even with all the statistical noise that comparing them with other teams that have full benches creates.
Miami Heat
In a reset tax year, the Miami Heat are whittled down to expiring LeBron, Jonas Valancuinas (sp?) and god knows who else (Marcus Thornton?). By all accounts, the Heat look like there's no way they can keep reaching the conference finals, but it's really hard to count out a team that has LeBron James. He may not get as much notice as KD or Love, but he can play four positions and dominate. We keep waiting for the tax-based peeling away of the Heat's roster will lead to a drop-off in wins, but it doesn't happen. It defies logic, so take their low positioning on this sheet with a grain of salt.
Milwaukee Bucks
The Milwaukee Bucks find themselves smack-dab in the middle of the spreadsheet. They still have enough talent to be a playoff team, but probably not the playoff team that sent the Hawks packing in round one last year. They're in a weird half-rebuild, half-go-for-it state that is arguably worse than being in all-rebuild mode, and the sheet shows that. I think they're going to be a team that's easy to score on as they've got a few holes that can be exploited in their lineup. Still, they've got enough talent to be above average, if not complete.
Minnesota Timberwolves
The Timberwolves had a rough training camp, and their roster doesn't look as deep, but they do have an interesting roster that leaves them strong in a number of areas. They're the quickest team on average, the best ball handlers, and the quickest team out there. Their defense isn't bad, but it's nothing to write home about. Expect them to have an untraditionally good offense by way of ball movement to create their own shots rather than pure range or grit in the paint.
New Orleans Pelicans
The Pelicans were an unexpected choice to win the championship last year. They overcame a hard road to do that, but as this spreadsheet shows, they've put together a very solid team that excels at defensive rebounding and post defense, which as I stated previously, seem to correlate heavily with teams that are championship material. They're also a very athletic team with good offensive ability. On paper, it looks like a team that's strong on perimeter scoring has the best chance of toppling the Pelicans this year.
New York Knicks
The Gary Harris for Chet Dooley swap may give the Knicks some better chances here, but their defense has taken a huge hit with the loss of Luc M'bah a Moute through free agency and the dismal training camp woes for John Henson. They took the Atlantic easily last year, but I think this year, it'll be much more of a struggle. Hopefully, their offensive gains will keep them competitive. They're good at shooting, handling, and passing, but they'll need to do that all very well to offset what other teams will do to them.
Oklahoma City Thunder
I think the Thunder will make a big leap this year. They've put together a roster with much better balance, and with the recent acquisition of Danny Green, they have a really strong starting 5 that should be able to rack up a lot of points with their shooting and passing. The intangibles make the Thunder a little weaker (fraternal twin tower approach with Vucevic being the more towering twin, their PG being great but short), but they should still be a strong team...perhaps even a division leading team with the right game planning. Their weakest spot right now is probably their athleticism. Their stamina is solid, but the other athletic areas could use some help overall as none of them stick out.
Orlando Magic
The Magic are pretty much where we'd expect them: in the red zone. That's for a few reasons. Even with the acquisition of more seasoned players like Tyreke, Mozgov, and Bogut, the Magic's strengths still lie in the future with the development of guys like Desantis and Ellinger. They also do a lot of moving and shaking with their roster and aren't afraid to dip their wicks in the free agent pool to try to pick up dudes they can dish out for points. They're still too young and fluid to have developed an identity, but that will come in time.
Philadelphia 76ers
The simputer likes the 76ers a hell of a lot more than the lazy statistician's spreadsheet. The spreadsheet thinks their offense needs work. The spreadsheet thinks their defense needs work. But the spreadsheet is also pretty low on the Eastern Conference in general, which could help the 76ers out a bit. Kenneth Henderson was recently snubbed by a popular podcast as one of the most desirable players under 25 (he is), and a fantastic overall training camp has Gordon Hayward looking A-OK-ward. Perhaps the Harris/Dooley trade sunk them a little bit on this spreadsheet, but they're in a good spot with a seasoned GM who has beat the game before. They could be a playoff team this year. I wouldn't bet too much on that, but even if you don't listen to my advice and that bet pays, I would advise not going double-or-nothing on Philly in the first round.
Phoenix Suns
Of the four teams that are built around one incredible player, the Suns fare the best. They surrounded Love with a lot of one year contracts--aging competitors who can still play well--and Love helps drag them up to be a really good looking team. There are some areas where Love is going to have to do the lion's share of the work, still: rebounding, inside scoring, and a lot of the dirty jobs that Mike Rowe talks about, so a lot of this season is based on how much load Love can shoulder. Without him, I'm guessing the Suns sheet looks a lot redder.
Portland Trailblazers
Oh, what a difference a Luc makes. The Blazers put a solid team around Derrick Rose this year, and I expect them to be really competitive. M'bah a Moute's impact alone ups their defensive skills to elite-level in comparison to the rest of the league. The one thing they're lacking? Three point shooting. They'll get the bulk of their points from inside, so they're not impossible to strategize against, but they're good enough where they'll win in spite of that. The playoffs, however, will surely test the team's mettle, assuming they'll make it there, which I am.
Sacramento Kings
The Kings took a huge leap last year, but it's possible that was a blip. They had a handful of very productive 1-year, 4 million dollar contracts that turned their team around, and without those contracts, the Kings look like they could slide back to mere princedom. Their offense could use some work, and their defense could also use some work. However, they have some cap space to spare and used wisely, they could help their cause now or in the future. I expect them to dip back out of the playoff picture, especially with a few teams out West making huge bounds forward.
San Antonio Spurs
The most striking thing to me about the Spurs is that their inside scoring is a few standard deviations above the mean. They will undoubtedly be a terrifying force inside (which balances out their inability to make shots). They rebound very well, but their defense has some gaps in it. Their GM can work a successful team around Westbrook and Josh Smith, but it's still not going to be a cakewalk into the playoffs for San Antonio.
Toronto Raptors
The Raptors have abandoned the Lowry/Bosh experiment, and as such, it's probably back to the drawing board for them. With 6 picks in the next three drafts, they look to be in rebuild mode around the still-growing monster that is Hassan Whiteside. Other than that, though, their roster has some good players, but not any real difference-makers. The Raptors will struggle a little more than they did last year, when a team led by Bosh and Lowry nabbed a lower playoff spot than a team with both of those players would want to expect.
Utah Jazz
The Jazz have a lot of holes in their team for Paul George to try to fill, and for a team deep in the repeater tax, that's not a good look. They should be looking to sell unless they think they can contend for a ring, but they should be able to cover their tax bill regardless on the strength of PG. There are spots here and there where they stack up well, but too many where they land below average. Their strongest suit seems to be three point shooting, but that could easily be an artifact of not having a real center, having a good stretch 4 in Ryan Anderson, and having a lot more players in the backcourt than the frontcourt.
Vancouver Grizzlies
The Grizzlies find themselves on this spreadsheet in a position they've been locked into for the past several years. They're just on the border of playoff contention, and it shows in the offensive categories. Their defense and athleticism is solid, and that is exactly where their combo of Jimmy Butler and Kawhi Leonard excel, but for the money they're spending, they're going to need to make some moves. Their best inside scorer is Randolph Morris with a 60 rating, and the three outside shooters they have who are rated at least a B, currently, all play the same spot. The Grizz ownership seems confident that they'll muster through, but the lazy statistician is less so, even if he'd like to see the Grizzlies fare better.
Washington Wizards
Currently in rebuild mode, as backed up by the colors on the spreadsheet, the Wizards don't fare as well in the big man categories as you'd expect for a team with so many players at 7 feet or over on their roster. However, those players are all young and need some time to develop. Offense and defense are both below average from a league-wide standpoint, but it's no secret the Wiz are looking to sell. Nothing remarkable to point out here, but their low status on this lists opens up a playoff spot, most likely, for one of the many hungry teams on the East who have been tapping at the surface.
