The Price is Wrong, Bob! A 747 UFA Recap

[kucoach7]

Nathan Sliver
sevenfortyseven.com
Editor in Chief

This year I thought it would be fun to create a model that would predict how much a player will get paid based on his performance from last year. In the end, the model contained points, rebounds, assists, blocks, age, future color rating, defensive efficiency, offensive efficiency, and usage. I also included year fixed effects to account for differences in the market year to year. All were statistically significant at the .05 level and the model explain a very respectable 71% of the variation. While all of this looked great, I want to start with big caveat. This year's free agency was very different from many other years. There was a ton of cap space and teams all wanted to be conservative with that cap space. The other side of the equation fueled that mindset. It was very deep but at the same time top heavy. There were a few max guys and after that there was a ton of respectable guys so teams were willing to risk missing out on their number one choice because they felt okay about 2,3,4, and 5. All this is to say that there were a lot of bargains this year relative to past years so the model's predictions weren't great.

Steal of a Deal
1. Steven Hunter
Predicted range: $20.6-$22.6 million
Actual: $7 million
Why was the model so high on Hunter? He average an absurd 4.1 blocks per game last season and was super efficient playing next to love. It may also show some improvement by the league in assessing players. Historically, athleticism apparently hasn't affected salary but nowadays teams may be turned of my Hunter's inability to move quickly.

2. J.R. Smith
Predicted range: $13.0-13.9 million
Actual: $2 million
There are holes in J.R.'s game but anytime you can nab 19.8 points per game on a min and the guy is only 30, that is a HUGE discount. J.R. apparently wants to win and he's willing to take a haircut to do it.

3. Nate Robinson
Predicted range: $13.2-14.1 million
Actual: $3.3 million
Nate Robinson's patience has paid off as Wig finally has bird rights and can pay Nate more than a min and he rewarded him with a 1.5 min. Generous, Wig, generous. At this point there are really only two explainations: the league under values Nate's contributions because he is short or Nate Robinson is Wig's lover.

4. Dwight Howard
Predicted range: $17.8-18.8 million
Actual: $8 million
If only the model could include a variable for "this guy is a training camp nightmare." Dwight's attributes and potentials have seen some ups and downs over the years so although he is still a great contributor, the league sees him as a liability. Dwight also represents how the league has gotten smarter. The model is based on history and historically, that blue potential would be richly rewarded but by now we all know Dwight's blue potential is a mirage. He's 30. He is what he is.

5. Timofey Mozgov
Predicted range: $14.2-15.3 million
Actual: $5.1 million
Timofey's predicted salary also gets inflated by his fake blue potential. Maybe I'll be able to fix that in the future. Timofey has bigger issues however, namely what to do with him when his team has the ball. The guy is a complete non-factor on offense and struggles to stay on the court.

Honorable Mentions:
Zach Randolph
Marc Gasol
Ron Artest
Carlos Boozer
Kendrick Perkins
These guys had nice years last year but their getting old. Z-Bo's color rating hurts him. Marc is another Wig-lover. Artest and Perkins are becoming borderline unathletic. Boozer had a 20/10 year but on a bad team.

Lemons
1. O.J. Mayo
Predicted range: $13.5-14.4 million
Actual: $22 million
O.J. is a fine player, he just got a cap-filler deal for a sign and trade. This happens occasionally. Not much to see here.

2. Danilo Gallinari
Predicted range: $20.2-21. million
Actual: $24.9 million
This shows you how much the model overshot players this year. This was the second worst deal? Really? Danillo is a great scorer he just doesn't contribute too much else so it isn't obvious he is a max guy. . . but he was close enough you gotta give him the max because somebody probably will.

3. Ramon Sessions
Predicted range: $9.9-10.6 million
Actual: $13 million
This deal is particularly irksome because he also signed Aaron Brooks, who is slightly older and better to essentially the same deal at the same position.

4. Goran Dragic
Predicted range: $23.1-24.2 million
Actual: $26.3 million
Dragic's starting salary here is perfectly fine, even though it performed relatively poorly in this year of bargains. I do think that by the end of the contract it may feel like a bad deal but as for now, it seems like a good signing.

5. Spencer Hawes
Predicted range: $22.9-23.9 million
Actual: $24.9 million
Okay, so apparently my model hates the Bulls. Pretty much what happened here is that the Bulls signed all of the fringe max guys because they were being super aggressive because they could afford to be super aggressive. They could not have gotten comparable guys for less than the max but they probably could have gotten something like these guys for way less than the max. Again, this was just the year of the bargain where everyone thought they could dodge the tax man. This is probably a good signing.

Dishonorable mentions:
Brandon Jennings
Thaddeus Young
Honestly, bringing Jennings back was a no-brainer for the Lakers. They should be happy they got him for less than the max because in many past years that would not have happened. Thad Young is one of those glue guys. Jack of all trades, master of none. Does everything well, nothing great. He's not dynamic. He doesn't fill the box score. Not a bad deal for him but this year you could have easily gotten comparable performance for millions less.

[NickMalone77]

When you win a title, they all want to play for you.....When you're over the cap to and all you can give is a Min, it sometimes works out. Lol.

[Inner_GI]

You can claim 5 points