Don't Skip Leg Day!
Posted: Wed Aug 02, 2017 2:52 pm
Nathan Sliver here with sevenfortyseven.com, still obsessing over draft class athleticism. I've already written two articles about how there were some interesting characters in each of our two draft classes since switching to a sim college league as our source (shamelessly advertising two underread posts).
viewtopic.php?f=7&t=4898
viewtopic.php?f=7&t=4641
However, as I've been looking at these individual players, I've noticed some consistent patterns that I wanted to verify across the entire class. It turns out these two classes are full of guys we've seen before just never in sim league. You know the type:
These guys are strong but it doesn't translate into jumping or quickness or stamina. . . which means, they're probably skipping leg day. I went through and ranked the average athleticism of all the draft classes (including the projected top 39 picks for 2016) and this is what I found.
Strength
1. 2016 - 65.4
2. 2015 - 64.8
3. 2008 - 57.3
4. 1993 - 57.3
...
25. 2009 - 49.4
26. 1997 - 49.2
These guys are stronger than past draft classes. . . by a lot. The class of 2016 features two 100 strength guys (as did the class of 2015) and two 99 guys. With players like this filling up the league, we could see a lot more bully ball down low.
Stamina
26. 2015 - 63.8
25. 2016 - 66.5
24. 2002 - 74.3
23. 2000 - 74.5
...
2. 2008 - 78.7
1. 2009 - 79.7
Here is the flip side of that extra strength. These new rookies have much lower stamina than past classes. This has all kinds of implications. If this continues, deeper teams will be more important. If it is true for the best players in the draft then the future stars of our league will not be able to put up the kinds of stats the stars of today put up. Look at the top three in this draft: Desantis 64, Peck 61, and Henderson 70. Those kinds of numbers will have to improve dramatically.
Jump
26. 2013 - 34.4
25. 2012 - 37.9
...
21. 2015 - 46.8
...
19. 2016 - 48.7
...
2. 1993 - 58.6
1. 1995 - 59.3
These guys are bad at jumping but not outliers like they are in strength and stamina. The bad part about their poor jumping is who it affects, many of the most promising players. We've never seen these combos of skills and athleticism so we'll have to wait and see how these sorts of guys play.
Quickness
26. 2016 - 48.2
25. 2000 - 52.1
24. 2015 - 52.4
23. 2001 - 54.3
...
2. 2012 - 63.2
1. 2009 - 69.4
These guys are slow. This probably is mostly driven by the lack of guard talent in these drafts so hopefully that will change. Of the 39 top projected picks in this year's draft, only 3 are point guards and 9 are shooting guards, compared to 13 power forwards and 9 centers. Hopefully the guard talent will come around soon.
Takeaways
So how much of this is being driven by a deluge of big men? Probably a lot of it. Should we be worried? I don't know. The most concerning thing to me is the stamina. In past years, the great players came with high levels of stamina, even the big men. These guys just don't have it so it will either have to be trained or the future stars simply won't be as durable as our current stars.
viewtopic.php?f=7&t=4898
viewtopic.php?f=7&t=4641
However, as I've been looking at these individual players, I've noticed some consistent patterns that I wanted to verify across the entire class. It turns out these two classes are full of guys we've seen before just never in sim league. You know the type:
These guys are strong but it doesn't translate into jumping or quickness or stamina. . . which means, they're probably skipping leg day. I went through and ranked the average athleticism of all the draft classes (including the projected top 39 picks for 2016) and this is what I found.
Strength
1. 2016 - 65.4
2. 2015 - 64.8
3. 2008 - 57.3
4. 1993 - 57.3
...
25. 2009 - 49.4
26. 1997 - 49.2
These guys are stronger than past draft classes. . . by a lot. The class of 2016 features two 100 strength guys (as did the class of 2015) and two 99 guys. With players like this filling up the league, we could see a lot more bully ball down low.
Stamina
26. 2015 - 63.8
25. 2016 - 66.5
24. 2002 - 74.3
23. 2000 - 74.5
...
2. 2008 - 78.7
1. 2009 - 79.7
Here is the flip side of that extra strength. These new rookies have much lower stamina than past classes. This has all kinds of implications. If this continues, deeper teams will be more important. If it is true for the best players in the draft then the future stars of our league will not be able to put up the kinds of stats the stars of today put up. Look at the top three in this draft: Desantis 64, Peck 61, and Henderson 70. Those kinds of numbers will have to improve dramatically.
Jump
26. 2013 - 34.4
25. 2012 - 37.9
...
21. 2015 - 46.8
...
19. 2016 - 48.7
...
2. 1993 - 58.6
1. 1995 - 59.3
These guys are bad at jumping but not outliers like they are in strength and stamina. The bad part about their poor jumping is who it affects, many of the most promising players. We've never seen these combos of skills and athleticism so we'll have to wait and see how these sorts of guys play.
Quickness
26. 2016 - 48.2
25. 2000 - 52.1
24. 2015 - 52.4
23. 2001 - 54.3
...
2. 2012 - 63.2
1. 2009 - 69.4
These guys are slow. This probably is mostly driven by the lack of guard talent in these drafts so hopefully that will change. Of the 39 top projected picks in this year's draft, only 3 are point guards and 9 are shooting guards, compared to 13 power forwards and 9 centers. Hopefully the guard talent will come around soon.
Takeaways
So how much of this is being driven by a deluge of big men? Probably a lot of it. Should we be worried? I don't know. The most concerning thing to me is the stamina. In past years, the great players came with high levels of stamina, even the big men. These guys just don't have it so it will either have to be trained or the future stars simply won't be as durable as our current stars.