How 'Bout them Scouts?
Posted: Tue Aug 01, 2017 1:31 pm
Each year, the PBSL scouts release a list of the top college prospects. What PBSL GMs really want to know is... is that list any good? Can I reliably watch the guys the scouts think are great college players or am I wasting my time because the lotto is vastly different than the preseason projections thought it would be? I thought it would be useful to check back in on that list (viewtopic.php?f=89&t=4724) now that the draft file is up and see how they compare. I decided to separate these into bands so I could look at groups, rather than individual players, because individual players can bounce around a bit. If you project a guy to be #13 and he ends up #16, are you that far off? Of course not. And if you hit most of your picks and one guy is a stud (or a bust), that's forgiveable too.
CAN'T-MISS PROSPECTS
This is the group everyone assumes will be the next generation of pro stars. Teams - especially struggling teams - keep one eye on these guys, hoping to get rewarded for a poor year with a transcendent player to help their franchise turn it around. Your "blue-chippers" (see what I did there?), so to speak. Your first group - the top 10 prospects - was the following:
Vernon Desantis, Stanford
Kenneth Henderson, The Citadel
James Pearsall, Wisconsin
Matt Peck, San Diego State
Damien Jeske, Connecticut
Stewart Osterman, Texas A&M
Ronald Rinker, Air Force
Ty Davis, Texas
Henry Raber, Wisconsin
Jonathan Linden, San Diego State
RESULTS: The preseason scouting report matches up pretty well with draft positioning here. 7 out of these 10 prospects are projected to go in the top 10 picks of the draft. Jonathan Linden, who was rated the #10 prospect, is projected to go at #16 which is just outside the lottery but the scouting report isn't a complete miss and he might still go in the lottery. Stewart Osterman was rated the #6 prospect but isn't projected to go in the draft until #20 - still a first round pick, but now definitely not a lottery pick. Henry Raber out of Wisconsin was the big fail in scouting; he was rated #9 preseason but the draft preview has him going at #33, meaning at best he's a very late first rounder and probably a 2nd round pick.
SCOUTING THE SCOUTING: Hitting on 7 out of 10 and having only one big "miss?" The scouts were on their "A" game when it comes to identifying the top 10 prospects.
LOTTERY BUBBLE
These are the players that you assume will have solid careers - guys we would consider "late lotto" or "just outside" the lotto prospects. Depending on team needs or work ethic, you might see them slide up or down and while it's not likely they'll be superstars, you assume that in the right situation, these guys should be able to play. These also include guys that might not have as much upside as the top prospects, but might have stayed in school long enough that their games are more polished and they are ready to contribute right away. You kind of wonder if some of these guys might prefer to be chosen just outside the lottery so they can go to a team that has already shown they can win and make the playoffs. Here are the guys the scouts thought would be on the lottery bubble.
Hernando Medina, Texas A&M
Dmitry Larionov, Nebraska
John Guy, Maryland
Russell Gomez, Houston
Melvin McCall, Akron
Fausto Garrido, Texas A&M
Norman Sullivan, Oklahoma State
Ronald Johnson, Michigan State
Brendon Brisson, Kansas State
James Heise, Villanova
RESULTS: Well, the thing that jumps out at me here is that Hernando Medina and Melvin McCall made nice jumps, moving from guys projected late in the lottery to guys projected to go #3 and #5 respectively. Six of these ten guys fall in the projected draft order between #10 and #22 which is pretty much where they were projected in preseason with just two exceptions... Brendon Brisson was listed as the #19 prospect preseason and is projected to go #26 - forgiveable, since he's a late first rounde either way. The only real "miss" here is Ronald Johnson out of Michigan State who was listed as the preseason #18 prospect but the draft preview has him #57, meaning he's in danger of not being drafted at all. He just finished up his Junior year, so maybe he thought he had to come out in a weak class to get drafted, but still, it's a disappointment.
SCOUTING THE SCOUTING: Again, only one real miss, even if a couple guys on this list were underrated. What this tells me is that the scouts did a pretty good job here, too, so for every team in the league - not just the lotto teams - this second tier of prospects is worth keeping an eye on as no matter where you finish you may have a shot at nabbing one of these guys in the draft.
LATE FIRST-ROUNDERS
Now things start getting interesting. The end of the first round is generally not where you're finding starters but if you're careful, you might be able to pick up a solid bench contributor or a niche role-player to help your team. Most teams view these kinds of picks as guys you grab and stash on your bench for use in trades later on down the line or in the hopes TC blesses them and they get better. But is it worth watching who the scouts tell you to if you're a surefire playoff team?
Jonathan Raab, Michigan State
Zack Baker, Ohio
Steven Diaz, La Salle
Alvin Pack, Old Dominion
James Webster, Rhode Island
Tony Forcier, Connecticut
Thomas Bedard, Wake Forest
John Twigg, Cincinnati
Robert Neeley, Villanova
Jason Fisher, Kansas
RESULTS: This is the tier where things start to get really dicey as far as scouting goes. Three of these players jumped up into the late lotto bubble area (Thomas Bedard #13, Jonathan Raab #14, Steven Diaz #17), three players stayed in school (John Twigg, Robert Neeley, Jason Fisher). Zack Baker is in the draft file, but doesn't really look like he'll stick in the league, which means only Alvin Pack, James Webster, and Tony Forcier wound up even close to their preseason projections.
SCOUTING THE SCOUTING: At this tier, you might get an early bead on someone who's going to jump up the prospect food chain, or who has a niche skill set you can use, but don't get too attached because he might just as easily drop down or not enter the draft.
SECOND ROUND AND BEYOND
I'm not going to bother putting up the list here because only two of the final 20 prospects (Paul Webb of St. John's who was rated the #33 prospect and projects as the #25 pick and Philip Bright of Fordham, rated the #34 prospect and projecting as the #27 pick) made a jump to the back of the first round. Five of the final 20 prospects returned to school, and another four look like they won't even be in the league.
The other thing that interested me is that four of our projected first round picks (#12 Jason Biggs, #18 Jarvis Chambers, #23 Timothy Hamilton, and #30 Isaias Stumpf) weren't even listed on the top 50 preseason prospects list. While none of these guys is a high lotto pick, I did find it interesting that a little more than 10% of the first round projected picks "came out of nowhere."
SUMMARY
Generally, the scouting report is more accurate for top-end prospects than it is for later prospects. The top-ten preseason prospects are almost assured to be impact players. Players between 11 and 20 will likely be first round picks, but might fall into the late first round. Players between 21 and 30 will be in the league... if they don't opt to return to school. After that, it's a total crapshoot. So if you're a team looking at a lotto pick, you can be pretty confident that the preseason prospects will be your guide as to who to watch for.
One of the other interesting things I noticed is that the order in which the players appear on the Attributes section of the draft preview page appears to be the same as their college ranking... which lets you know immediately whose games did not translate to the pros because you'll see a prospect with Orange potential near the top of the page (I'm looking at you, Ronald Johnson and Zack Baker). I think it also gives us a little feel for the randomness involved in the rookie class import (especially when you see Jason Biggs coming out of nowhere near the bottom of the list as a green/green potential guy) and that sometimes guys jump and sometimes guys fall.
CAN'T-MISS PROSPECTS
This is the group everyone assumes will be the next generation of pro stars. Teams - especially struggling teams - keep one eye on these guys, hoping to get rewarded for a poor year with a transcendent player to help their franchise turn it around. Your "blue-chippers" (see what I did there?), so to speak. Your first group - the top 10 prospects - was the following:
Vernon Desantis, Stanford
Kenneth Henderson, The Citadel
James Pearsall, Wisconsin
Matt Peck, San Diego State
Damien Jeske, Connecticut
Stewart Osterman, Texas A&M
Ronald Rinker, Air Force
Ty Davis, Texas
Henry Raber, Wisconsin
Jonathan Linden, San Diego State
RESULTS: The preseason scouting report matches up pretty well with draft positioning here. 7 out of these 10 prospects are projected to go in the top 10 picks of the draft. Jonathan Linden, who was rated the #10 prospect, is projected to go at #16 which is just outside the lottery but the scouting report isn't a complete miss and he might still go in the lottery. Stewart Osterman was rated the #6 prospect but isn't projected to go in the draft until #20 - still a first round pick, but now definitely not a lottery pick. Henry Raber out of Wisconsin was the big fail in scouting; he was rated #9 preseason but the draft preview has him going at #33, meaning at best he's a very late first rounder and probably a 2nd round pick.
SCOUTING THE SCOUTING: Hitting on 7 out of 10 and having only one big "miss?" The scouts were on their "A" game when it comes to identifying the top 10 prospects.
LOTTERY BUBBLE
These are the players that you assume will have solid careers - guys we would consider "late lotto" or "just outside" the lotto prospects. Depending on team needs or work ethic, you might see them slide up or down and while it's not likely they'll be superstars, you assume that in the right situation, these guys should be able to play. These also include guys that might not have as much upside as the top prospects, but might have stayed in school long enough that their games are more polished and they are ready to contribute right away. You kind of wonder if some of these guys might prefer to be chosen just outside the lottery so they can go to a team that has already shown they can win and make the playoffs. Here are the guys the scouts thought would be on the lottery bubble.
Hernando Medina, Texas A&M
Dmitry Larionov, Nebraska
John Guy, Maryland
Russell Gomez, Houston
Melvin McCall, Akron
Fausto Garrido, Texas A&M
Norman Sullivan, Oklahoma State
Ronald Johnson, Michigan State
Brendon Brisson, Kansas State
James Heise, Villanova
RESULTS: Well, the thing that jumps out at me here is that Hernando Medina and Melvin McCall made nice jumps, moving from guys projected late in the lottery to guys projected to go #3 and #5 respectively. Six of these ten guys fall in the projected draft order between #10 and #22 which is pretty much where they were projected in preseason with just two exceptions... Brendon Brisson was listed as the #19 prospect preseason and is projected to go #26 - forgiveable, since he's a late first rounde either way. The only real "miss" here is Ronald Johnson out of Michigan State who was listed as the preseason #18 prospect but the draft preview has him #57, meaning he's in danger of not being drafted at all. He just finished up his Junior year, so maybe he thought he had to come out in a weak class to get drafted, but still, it's a disappointment.
SCOUTING THE SCOUTING: Again, only one real miss, even if a couple guys on this list were underrated. What this tells me is that the scouts did a pretty good job here, too, so for every team in the league - not just the lotto teams - this second tier of prospects is worth keeping an eye on as no matter where you finish you may have a shot at nabbing one of these guys in the draft.
LATE FIRST-ROUNDERS
Now things start getting interesting. The end of the first round is generally not where you're finding starters but if you're careful, you might be able to pick up a solid bench contributor or a niche role-player to help your team. Most teams view these kinds of picks as guys you grab and stash on your bench for use in trades later on down the line or in the hopes TC blesses them and they get better. But is it worth watching who the scouts tell you to if you're a surefire playoff team?
Jonathan Raab, Michigan State
Zack Baker, Ohio
Steven Diaz, La Salle
Alvin Pack, Old Dominion
James Webster, Rhode Island
Tony Forcier, Connecticut
Thomas Bedard, Wake Forest
John Twigg, Cincinnati
Robert Neeley, Villanova
Jason Fisher, Kansas
RESULTS: This is the tier where things start to get really dicey as far as scouting goes. Three of these players jumped up into the late lotto bubble area (Thomas Bedard #13, Jonathan Raab #14, Steven Diaz #17), three players stayed in school (John Twigg, Robert Neeley, Jason Fisher). Zack Baker is in the draft file, but doesn't really look like he'll stick in the league, which means only Alvin Pack, James Webster, and Tony Forcier wound up even close to their preseason projections.
SCOUTING THE SCOUTING: At this tier, you might get an early bead on someone who's going to jump up the prospect food chain, or who has a niche skill set you can use, but don't get too attached because he might just as easily drop down or not enter the draft.
SECOND ROUND AND BEYOND
I'm not going to bother putting up the list here because only two of the final 20 prospects (Paul Webb of St. John's who was rated the #33 prospect and projects as the #25 pick and Philip Bright of Fordham, rated the #34 prospect and projecting as the #27 pick) made a jump to the back of the first round. Five of the final 20 prospects returned to school, and another four look like they won't even be in the league.
The other thing that interested me is that four of our projected first round picks (#12 Jason Biggs, #18 Jarvis Chambers, #23 Timothy Hamilton, and #30 Isaias Stumpf) weren't even listed on the top 50 preseason prospects list. While none of these guys is a high lotto pick, I did find it interesting that a little more than 10% of the first round projected picks "came out of nowhere."
SUMMARY
Generally, the scouting report is more accurate for top-end prospects than it is for later prospects. The top-ten preseason prospects are almost assured to be impact players. Players between 11 and 20 will likely be first round picks, but might fall into the late first round. Players between 21 and 30 will be in the league... if they don't opt to return to school. After that, it's a total crapshoot. So if you're a team looking at a lotto pick, you can be pretty confident that the preseason prospects will be your guide as to who to watch for.
One of the other interesting things I noticed is that the order in which the players appear on the Attributes section of the draft preview page appears to be the same as their college ranking... which lets you know immediately whose games did not translate to the pros because you'll see a prospect with Orange potential near the top of the page (I'm looking at you, Ronald Johnson and Zack Baker). I think it also gives us a little feel for the randomness involved in the rookie class import (especially when you see Jason Biggs coming out of nowhere near the bottom of the list as a green/green potential guy) and that sometimes guys jump and sometimes guys fall.