SLOE Investment Firm: End of Season Review
Posted: Mon Jul 31, 2017 9:01 am
Back at the end of December, we at SLOE Investment Firm went ahead and gave some recommendations on what to invest in or when you should cash out. Now that we are sitting here at the end of the regular season, we are going to recap those hits and misses for you.
East:
1. The Atlantic Division
Recommendation in December:
New York Knicks - SELL
Toronto Raptors - BUY
In review: Well, the Knicks proved many wrong this season. They did more than prove everyone wrong... they climbed to the top of the Atlantic, stood on the edge looking down at their division rivals, and pissed all over them. I couldn't have been more wrong in my assessment. However, a lucky few did sell towards the end of the season, prior to Nikola Jokic's injury... The Raptors on the other hand were looking pretty good and in turn making me look pretty good... until the dreaded injury to Kyle Lowry on April 6th. Without their PG, it was at that point that the Raptors went spiraling out of control, losing 8 of their last 9. Had it not been for that run, the Raptors could've had home court for the 1st round of the playoffs instead of barely hanging on to playoff berth at 7th.
Hindsight recommendations:
New York Knicks - HOLD
Toronto Raptors - SELL
2. The Central Division
Recommendation in December:
Chicago Bulls - SELL
Indianapolis Pacers - BUY
In review: The Bulls didn't lose a step as much as everyone had thought they would. They were neck and neck with the Bucks heading into the last sim of the season, and had a tough stretch of road games to close out. Regardless, they proved us wrong. GOOD ON YA, GMAN. Pacers, on the other hand, we were dead right on. There's something about this squad. They posted their 1st 60+ win season in the history of the franchise, and really look poised to make a deep run in the playoffs. Although... a betting man could make the argument of selling now, as the Pacers have made the playoffs 15 times in league history... but only advanced to the 2nd round twice. Whether or not you risk it and sell now (or hold firm and ride it out)... that's up to you, but the Pacers are legit and should make a deep run.
Hindsight Recommendations:
Chicago Bulls - HOLD
Indianapolois Pacers - BUY - NAILED IT
3. The Southeast Division
Recommendation in December:
Orlando Magic - SELL
Washington Wizards - BUY
In review: In the tank race, the season started out heated between the Magic and the Sonics. We said sell now... and we sure hope you did. Between January and the end of the season the Magic posted over 3 times as many wins (13) as they had in the 1st 2 months of the season (4). They easily distanced themselves (in the wrong way) from the top tank in Charlotte, but hey, we'll see who the winner is in the lotto soon enough. The Wizards, being over the cap, had to do some manipulation of their cap come trade deadline, and as we have seen in the past, sometimes these cap-driven shake ups really hurt team cohesion. That was the case here as well, as the Wiz Kids went 13-19 post Trade Deadline. Ouchies, investers wish the Wizards had held it together just a bit longer, as their stock fell just as quickly as their playoff seeding.
Hindsight Recommendations:
Orlando Magic - SELL - NAILED IT
Washington Wizards - SELL
1. The Northwest Division
Oklahoma City Thunder - SELL
Utah Jazz - BUY
In review: The Thunder, as expected, went on that skid. After a hot start, they went 24-30 to close out the season. (yay lotto pick for me) Although, they did show some life at the end of the season, going 9-2 from March 31st forward (nooooooo late lotto pick). Jazz came out hot, but made the trade to dump Bogut's future salary in favor of Mosgov's expiring deal. It's a great future move, but the Jazz never really recovered from moving Andrew Bogut, losing a little bit of offense (and defense) that Mosgov couldn't replace. That said, they are, overall, a good team and just managed to make the playoffs after they did just enough (3-6) in April to hold off the limping Houston Rockets for the 8th spot. But they aren't bad or good enough to say buy or sell... so it's best to maybe just stay away.
Hindsight Recommendations:
Oklahoma City Thunder - SELL - NAILED IT
Utah Jazz - DO NOT INVEST
2. The Pacific Division
Recommendation in December:
Phoenix Suns - SELL
Sacramento Kings - BUY
In review: The Suns still made the playoffs, but the expectations for Phoenix coming into the season with MVP Kevin Love in his prime was much higher than "make playoffs". But we did predict the drop off. And that drop off came in back half of March and the 1st half of April, where they went 3-10 and removed themselves from the Division championship conversation. For a team that had such high hopes, it was appropriate to sell. Kings were another team we were just right on. Heading into the last 11 days of the season, the Kings were sitting at the top of the Pacific Division. Had the Clippers not hit stride and gone on their 8-game winning streak to close out, the Kings had a chance to be surprise Division champs. And we just want to say "told ya so"!
Hindsight Recommendations:
Phoenix Suns - SELL - NAILED IT
Sacramento Kings - BUY - NAILED IT
3. The Southwest Division
Recommendations in December
Houston Rockets - SELL
New Orleans Pelicans - BUY
In Review: Rockets... they got bit by the injury bug and never recovered. DJ White, Thaddeus Young... all integral pieces, but the team has no true SUPERSTAR, but many above average players that work well together. But when one piece is removed, the rest come tumbling down. And unfortunately for them, they went from top of the division to not even making the playoffs. Pelicans, on the other hand, lost 5 games in the last 2 months of the season (2/21 through 4/23). Talk about an incredible turn around! Congrats to Nick Malone for putting together a fantastic squad and being the 1st Southwest Division Champions (we knew you could do it!).
Hindsight Recommendations:
Houston Rockets - SELL - NAILED IT
New Orleans Pelicans - BUY - NAILED IT
In conclusion:
East - 2/6 Correct
West - 5/6 Correct
Clearly, we need to invest more research and resources into studying the East. But as you can see, when it comes to the west, we are fairly competent. I hope you bought in early with us, as we predict things will only improve with time. We'll see you next season!
East:
1. The Atlantic Division
Recommendation in December:
New York Knicks - SELL
Toronto Raptors - BUY
In review: Well, the Knicks proved many wrong this season. They did more than prove everyone wrong... they climbed to the top of the Atlantic, stood on the edge looking down at their division rivals, and pissed all over them. I couldn't have been more wrong in my assessment. However, a lucky few did sell towards the end of the season, prior to Nikola Jokic's injury... The Raptors on the other hand were looking pretty good and in turn making me look pretty good... until the dreaded injury to Kyle Lowry on April 6th. Without their PG, it was at that point that the Raptors went spiraling out of control, losing 8 of their last 9. Had it not been for that run, the Raptors could've had home court for the 1st round of the playoffs instead of barely hanging on to playoff berth at 7th.
Hindsight recommendations:
New York Knicks - HOLD
Toronto Raptors - SELL
2. The Central Division
Recommendation in December:
Chicago Bulls - SELL
Indianapolis Pacers - BUY
In review: The Bulls didn't lose a step as much as everyone had thought they would. They were neck and neck with the Bucks heading into the last sim of the season, and had a tough stretch of road games to close out. Regardless, they proved us wrong. GOOD ON YA, GMAN. Pacers, on the other hand, we were dead right on. There's something about this squad. They posted their 1st 60+ win season in the history of the franchise, and really look poised to make a deep run in the playoffs. Although... a betting man could make the argument of selling now, as the Pacers have made the playoffs 15 times in league history... but only advanced to the 2nd round twice. Whether or not you risk it and sell now (or hold firm and ride it out)... that's up to you, but the Pacers are legit and should make a deep run.
Hindsight Recommendations:
Chicago Bulls - HOLD
Indianapolois Pacers - BUY - NAILED IT
3. The Southeast Division
Recommendation in December:
Orlando Magic - SELL
Washington Wizards - BUY
In review: In the tank race, the season started out heated between the Magic and the Sonics. We said sell now... and we sure hope you did. Between January and the end of the season the Magic posted over 3 times as many wins (13) as they had in the 1st 2 months of the season (4). They easily distanced themselves (in the wrong way) from the top tank in Charlotte, but hey, we'll see who the winner is in the lotto soon enough. The Wizards, being over the cap, had to do some manipulation of their cap come trade deadline, and as we have seen in the past, sometimes these cap-driven shake ups really hurt team cohesion. That was the case here as well, as the Wiz Kids went 13-19 post Trade Deadline. Ouchies, investers wish the Wizards had held it together just a bit longer, as their stock fell just as quickly as their playoff seeding.
Hindsight Recommendations:
Orlando Magic - SELL - NAILED IT
Washington Wizards - SELL
1. The Northwest Division
Oklahoma City Thunder - SELL
Utah Jazz - BUY
In review: The Thunder, as expected, went on that skid. After a hot start, they went 24-30 to close out the season. (yay lotto pick for me) Although, they did show some life at the end of the season, going 9-2 from March 31st forward (nooooooo late lotto pick). Jazz came out hot, but made the trade to dump Bogut's future salary in favor of Mosgov's expiring deal. It's a great future move, but the Jazz never really recovered from moving Andrew Bogut, losing a little bit of offense (and defense) that Mosgov couldn't replace. That said, they are, overall, a good team and just managed to make the playoffs after they did just enough (3-6) in April to hold off the limping Houston Rockets for the 8th spot. But they aren't bad or good enough to say buy or sell... so it's best to maybe just stay away.
Hindsight Recommendations:
Oklahoma City Thunder - SELL - NAILED IT
Utah Jazz - DO NOT INVEST
2. The Pacific Division
Recommendation in December:
Phoenix Suns - SELL
Sacramento Kings - BUY
In review: The Suns still made the playoffs, but the expectations for Phoenix coming into the season with MVP Kevin Love in his prime was much higher than "make playoffs". But we did predict the drop off. And that drop off came in back half of March and the 1st half of April, where they went 3-10 and removed themselves from the Division championship conversation. For a team that had such high hopes, it was appropriate to sell. Kings were another team we were just right on. Heading into the last 11 days of the season, the Kings were sitting at the top of the Pacific Division. Had the Clippers not hit stride and gone on their 8-game winning streak to close out, the Kings had a chance to be surprise Division champs. And we just want to say "told ya so"!
Hindsight Recommendations:
Phoenix Suns - SELL - NAILED IT
Sacramento Kings - BUY - NAILED IT
3. The Southwest Division
Recommendations in December
Houston Rockets - SELL
New Orleans Pelicans - BUY
In Review: Rockets... they got bit by the injury bug and never recovered. DJ White, Thaddeus Young... all integral pieces, but the team has no true SUPERSTAR, but many above average players that work well together. But when one piece is removed, the rest come tumbling down. And unfortunately for them, they went from top of the division to not even making the playoffs. Pelicans, on the other hand, lost 5 games in the last 2 months of the season (2/21 through 4/23). Talk about an incredible turn around! Congrats to Nick Malone for putting together a fantastic squad and being the 1st Southwest Division Champions (we knew you could do it!).
Hindsight Recommendations:
Houston Rockets - SELL - NAILED IT
New Orleans Pelicans - BUY - NAILED IT
In conclusion:
East - 2/6 Correct
West - 5/6 Correct
Clearly, we need to invest more research and resources into studying the East. But as you can see, when it comes to the west, we are fairly competent. I hope you bought in early with us, as we predict things will only improve with time. We'll see you next season!