1. The Northwest Division
Oklahoma City Thunder - SELL
Utah Jazz - BUY
The Thunder started out hot hot hot. A surprise team in the west with a very young core and lots of promise. Their anchors down low in Tyson Chandler and Zach Randolph played just as well as ever, although lately they have started to slip. One may wonder if the wear and tear of the long and grinding season is starting to take it's toll on the 30-something Patrol. November was a great month for them (10-5), but December was not a kind mistress (5-8). Additionally, the Thunder have also been a very different team on the road (3-9, 25% win%) than they have been in OKC (13-4, 76.5% win%); 9 of their 13 losses occurred outside the Thunderdome (as mentioned before, this is not a surprise for a young team). As a team that is in the bottom half in the league on offense and defense AND one that struggles on the road, it doesn't bode well that remaining schedule is +5 in the away game category. So while the Thunder have a winning record, you might want to sell those shares. January (WINTER) is coming, and 11 road games and 4 home games in that stretch could really cause a big hit to Thunder value.
The Utah Jazz are on the flip side of this. They are just getting their anchor back in Andrew Bogut. They are also trying to figure it out after a huge trade. But this was a perfect storm of bad shit happening for them. December was the worst possible time to lose Bogut and make such a impactful trade; they had 12 road games and 4 home games. The 1st half of January isn't much better with 5 road games and 3 away games. The good thing is, as of this point in the season, that their remaining schedule home game count is +5 vs. road games. After next sim, it'll be a 7-game differential in favor of home games. They will have time to figure the new team out, just in time to hit the sweet spot in their schedule (basically Jan 15-March 14)and possibly wreak havoc on the Western Conference once again. Some have lost confidence in what the Jazz can do in the west, but not this guy. Buy them now while the value is at a season low. Or maybe wait and risk another bad sim to buy. But if you buy post-Jan 15, you'll be playing from behind the 8-ball.
2. The Pacific Division
Phoenix Suns - SELL
Sacramento Kings - BUY
This was probably one of the harder divisions to figure out. But despite a winning record, net positive point differential, and possibly the best player in the league, I'm going to say sell on the Suns. Want to know why?
Sacramento Kings could be the immediate beneficiary of the Suns' firesale. Kings have surprised quite a few, including their own GM NOLa with how well they have been playing. Losing Noel for an extended period of time hurts, but one thing to point out and notice with this team is that they've played 17 away games already and only 11 home games. They've been pretty good at home (3rd best home winning percentage, 81.8%), and have a +6 in favor of home games vs away games for the remainder of the season. January is especially nice with a 12 to 4 home:away game ratio. Kings could jump up not just the division standings, but also back into the playoff race (especially if the Suns and aforementioned Thunder start to plummet). Buy now before his record continues to improves and make believers out of fans who thought they were getting ready for another long haul rebuild.
3. The Southwest Division
Houston Rockets - SELL
New Orleans Pelicans - BUY
Houston Rockets are en fuego at the moment. Coming off a great sim, they look pretty fantastic with their strong front court rotation and excellent guard play... NOT SO FAST, MY FRIEND. Let me introduce you to their remaining games (total left, 64). Of the 54 remaining games, 32 (!!) games are away games. That's 59.25% of their games that are outside H-Town. There road record is sub-.500 as well, so Rockets fans have to be hesitant to celebrate being the lead dog in the Southwest division. From March onward, they have 15 road games and 10 home games, but after March 9th, they'll have 15 road games and 6 home games. Brutal stretch in a TIGHT division. Those who have scouted this noticed this and have started to sell while the Rockets are hot and on top. Selling quick may be smart too, as they have a 11-game stretch where they play 6 games away during mid-January.
New Orleans Pelicans are on the rise. Being 1.5 games back of the Rockets, Pelicans GM Nick Malone smells blood in the water. With Trade Deadline approaching soon, we all know that this can go. He's major huge moves at deadline to make a run (Antwan Jamison) and also made head scratching moves that backfired. Because of this GM's penchant for random RKO-out-of-nowhere trades, the value of this franchise ALWAYS dips right before deadline. But seeing that his team is SO close to the Southwest crown, I feel pretty confident that something is in the works. It may be the time to get on this horse and ride him like the wind. It's very possible this could blow up, but honestly, this is one of those risky bets that could pay off in the end, especially with how up in the air the West is this season. The big test is April. Plenty of home games and plenty of favorable matchups... BUT 2 matchups with the Rockets. Could come down to this, and at that point, Nick's team could be gunning for more than just Division Champs.
