Overblown/Under the Radar - Sim 2

[WigNosy]

With a couple of sims in the books, it's definitely time to look at what premature conclusions and storylines about the various teams can be drawn from the season so far. With each conclusion, we'll note whether the story is overblown or whether it's been flying under the radar.

1. RACE FOR THE #1 PICK

The new Southeast Division has two rivals bitterly fighting it out for the #1 overall pick. The Magic have opened the season with 12 losses in a row, by an average of 21+ points and it's getting so bad they're shopping what talent they have to blow it up (again). The expansion Bobcats have done them three better with 15 losses and no wins to start the season... but at least they're not looking to blow up their talent. There is talk of the Bobcats challenging the 5-win Sonics for fewest wins in league history.

OVERBLOWN - The Bobcats knew they were going to be bad, but they'll sneak in enough wins to avoid being an historically bad team... mostly because there are no historically great teams this season either and at some point they'll get lucky. The Magic are overreacting to the fact their team is mostly raw and young and haven't learned how to get good shots yet. If they ride this season out and pick up some young interior guys over the next couple of drafts as Moz and Bynum fall off the books they'll be fine.

2. THE SOUTHWEST DIVISION SHOULD BELONG TO THE ROCKETS

After the first sim, it looked like Houston was going to run away with the Southwest. One sim later and they're tied for 3rd/4th in the division. What's wrong with the Rockets?

OVERBLOWN - The Rockets have a couple new pieces and they're just figuring things out. Their schedule in the second sim was a little tougher than their schedule in the first sim. They'll be fine, though the rest of the division might be a little better than everyone was giving them credit for.

3. WHAT'S WRONG WITH THE RAPTORS?

At first glance, you would be tempted to say "injuries" since three of their players are nursing injuries right now. But a closer look shows two of those injuries are only minor and the third injury was just one game ago, so the Raptors were only 7-7 at full strength anyway in an Atlantic Division most suspected they would dominate. Despite their slow start, consensus seems to be the Raptors will hit the gas soon and run away with the Atlantic.

UNDER THE RADAR - The Raptors are just 4-4 at home, which would be worrisome enough, but the real story here is Chris Bosh and Kyle Lowry. Last season Bosh averaged 30.9 ppg on 56% shooting. This season? 23.6 ppg on 49% shooting. Kyle Lowry dipped from 47.4% shooting to 42.9% shooting. It is a little to early to tell if this major falloff in shooting efficiency is small sample size, different game plan, or father time... but if it's father time, the Raptors could be in BIG trouble.

4. REPORTS OF THE NUGGETS' DEMISE GREATLY EXAGGERATED

The Nuggets had a lot of doubters after a somewhat disappointing training camp and a series of moves that saw them reshuffle the core around Klay Thompson. For the most part, though, they surrounded Klay with guys that produced, regardless of color ratings. Now they lead the Northwest division. Are the Nuggets back?

OVERBLOWN - Doubly so. Rumors of the Nuggets' death were overblown, but they won't be dominant over the division, either - the Thunder and Jazz are both too good for the Nuggets to pull away from significantly. Expect the Northwest to be a division that comes down to the final sim in the standings.

5. INDIANA PACING THE CENTRAL

The Pacers have started white hot and lead the Central on the back of their defensive prowess. Deron Williams continues to play like an MVP and they've beaten some strong teams like the Jazz and Wizards. Is this the year the Pacers finally pick up a division crown and make a deep playoff run or will they wear out as the season wears on?

UNDER THE RADAR - While most thought the Stoudemire signing portended great things for Indy offensively, instead it's been Luol Deng who has been the offensive x-factor (raise your hand if you saw that coming... yeah, me neither). Nobody has a better road record than the Pacers and that's one of the best indicators of team quality. The one caveat? If you think the Central is the toughest division, the Pacers haven't really proven themselves yet - just one of their games so far has been against fellow Central competitors (a win at the Cavs in their 2nd game of the season).

6. THE KEVINS RULING THE PACIFIC

Here of course we refer to the offensive-minded Suns with Kevin Love and the defensive-minded Clippers with Kevin Durant. Amid comments that the Pacific Division is the best division, is everyone else riding on the coattails of the Kevins this year?

UNDER THE RADAR - The thing that surprised me is both of these teams have a +3 or less point differential despite winning records on the road and despite two of the league's best players. Neither team has a great backcourt and honestly, both are heavily dependent on their stars and a single injury would be utterly disastrous. I think the deeper Kings or Warriors, with their mix of moderately priced assets, could definitely make a play for the division if they can find a team willing to take a puupuu platter to bring a star in to Northern California. And while the Lakers' young crew isn't quite there yet, they won't be riding anyone's coattails in a couple of years.

[Inner_GI]

Leads the division for the first time in his Knick's career, media only covers the Raptors. I SEE YOU. #FAKENEWS

[78#]

The Southwest should be mine. No excuses this season.


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[Inner_GI]

Wig, you may claim 5 points toward your 2015-16 media cap.

[fearthebrow]

#SouthBest