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Is Your Max Contract PG Worth It?

Posted: Mon Apr 10, 2017 6:13 pm
by Inner_GI
Is Your Max Contract Worth It?

Ground Rules & Assumptions:
1. I measured each player against the average player at their position (includes all signed players in the league).
2. All positions are measured in common “important” stat categories: PPG, FG%, TS%, 3P%. FT%. FTA
3. Specific positions also measure statistical categories that pertain to that position.
4. How did I determine if a player is terrible, below average, average, above average, or elite?
a. The MEAN of each position and stat category is used to determine how many standard deviations a player’s stats are from the MEAN. (How much better is X player at Y stat than an average player in the league?)
5. Stats were pulled from SIM 8, and can be slightly off by the time this article posts, but shouldn’t affect the analysis in any meaningful way at this point in the season.
6. There are three possible verdicts:
a. NOT WORTH THE MAX – Player does not show max level “improvement” from the average player at their position
b. MAYBE WORTH THE MAX – Worth a max, but may depend on the team, system, and surrounding players
c. WORTH THE MAX – Clearly in a league of their own.

Point Guards:

Stats being measured: PPG, APG, SPG, TO, FG%, FTA, FT%, 3P%, TS%, AstR, ToR, PER

What determines an elite PG in the league? In my opinion, a PG in this league worth of a max contract should be well above average in some of these categories: APG, STL, TS%, AstR, and ToR.

For Turnovers and Turnover Rate, players want to be below the league position average.

Here is a detailed look at each Max Contract PG.

Jameer Nelson:

• PPG: 15.1 – AVERAGE
• APG: 8.3 – ABOVE AVERAGE
• SPG: 1.6 - AVERAGE
• TO: 2.2 – AVERAGE
• FG%: 44.9% - AVERAGE
• FTA: 70 – BELOW AVERAGE
• FT%: 74.3% - BELOW AVERAGE
• 3P%: 43% - ABOVE AVERAGE
• TS%: 55.6% - AVERAGE
• AstR: 34.5% - ABOVE AVERAGE
• ToR: 9% - AVERAGE
• PER: 17.5 - AVERAGE

Jameer Nelson only does 4 things at an above average rate: APG, 3P%, AstR, and ToR. For a player on a max contract, I think you would expect a lot more. Granted, for Jameer, he has already reached that dreaded 31+ years old, and I’m not sure you could expect much more from him. If we look back at his career, his numbers are relatively consistent and maybe his drop to G/G hasn’t had a huge impact on his production. Is he worth the max?

VERDICT: NOT WORTH THE MAX


Delonte West:

• PPG: 18.1 - ABOVE AVERAGE
• APG: 5.4 - AVERAGE
• SPG: 2.3 - ABOVE AVERAGE
• TO: 2.6 - AVERAGE
• FG%: 44.6% - AVERAGE
• FTA: 203 - AVERAGE
• FT%: 84.2 - AVERAGE
• 3P%: 38.6% - AVERAGE
• TS%: 55.5% - AVERAGE
• AstR: 22.3 - AVERAGE
• ToR: 10.6 - AVERAGE
• PER: 19.7 - AVERAGE

Delonte West is above average in 3 categories. It’s pretty easy to say that at the PG position, Delonte West does not deliver is some of the very key statistics, and this is probably a career year for him. I think Delonte West is a reaction to the fact that PGs are extremely rare in this league, but even with that rarity, he doesn’t perform above the average standard deviation in key stats. And if you have a scoring PG like west, you would expect him to at least be above average in FG%, 3P%, and TS%. Is he worth the max?

VERDICT: NOT WORTH THE MAX


Chris Paul:

• PPG: 21.6 – ABOVE AVERAGE
• APG: 8.7 – ABOVE AVERAGE
• SPG: 2.8 - ELITE
• TO: 3.2 – BELOW AVERAGE
• FG%: 44.7% - AVERAGE
• FTA: 303 – ABOVE AVERAGE
• FT%: 80.5% - AVERAGE
• 3P%: 37.6 - AVERAGE
• TS%: 56.1% - AVERAGE
• AstR: 28 - AVERAGE
• ToR: 10.3 - AVERAGE
• PER: 24.5 – ABOVE AVERAGE

Chris Paul delivers an above average rating in 4 categories and is elite in the steals category. Usually, in this league, if you have a player that is elite at anything, you hold to them forever. Chris Paul is one of those players. If you look back his career stats, this is down year for some reason, but he still delivers a dynamic scoring punch while performing the all-important PG duties of assists and steals. Is CP3 on the decline, or are the cavs no longer a good team? Either way, CP3 was/is well worth his current max contract… next year… maybe not. Is he worth a max?

VERDICT: WORTH THE MAX


Deron Williams:

• PPG: 30.7 - ELITE
• APG: 10.2 - ELITE
• SPG: 1.5 - AVERAGE
• TO: 3.1 – BELOW AVERAGE
• FG%: 53% - ABOVE AVERAGE
• FTA: 413 - ELITE
• FT%: 78.9 - AVERAGE
• 3P%: 48.5% - ABOVE AVERAGE
• TS%: 64.1 – ABOVE AVERAGE
• AstR: 27.4 - AVERAGE
• ToR: 8.4 - AVERAGE
• PER: 34.1 – ELITE

Wow… Deron Williams dominates at the highest level in 3 major categories and tops it off with getting to the FT line at an insanely high level for a PG in this league(Only Derrick Rose does it more for max contract PGs). Deron Williams is the perfect PG. He might be underpaid, but we’ll see how this 5 year contract holds up. My guess… Deron Williams can regress and still be worth a max. Is he worth a max?

VERDICT: WORTH THE MAX + KEY TO THE CITY


Kyle Lowry:

• PPG: 16 - AVERAGE
• APG: 8.8 – ABOVE AVERAGE
• SPG: 2.8 - ELITE
• TO: 2.5 - AVERAGE
• FG%: 43% - AVERAGE
• FTA: 213 - AVERAGE
• FT%: 77.5% - AVERAGE
• 3P%: 32.4% - AVERAGE
• TS%: 53.9% - AVERAGE
• AstR: 33.7 – ABOVE AVERAGE
• ToR: 9.7 - AVERAGE
• PER: 22.6 – ABOVE AVERAGE

Kyle Lowry is an interesting player. He’s basically average across the board, but he excels in three very important areas: SPG, APG, ASTR. Like I said before, if you find a player elite at anything you want to keep them for as long as possible. This is a down year for Lowry shooting percentage wise, but it wouldn’t jump him up a bracket in those areas, and this season’s stats don’t show a lot of variation from his career norms. In short Lowry is what he is. A great PG, but one that has probably benefited from being with Bosh for 5 years. Is he worth a max?

VERDICT: MAYBE WORTH THE MAX


Goran Dragic:

• PPG: 21.4 – ABOVE AVERAGE
• APG: 7.7 – ABOVE AVERAGE
• SPG: 1.7 - AVERAGE
• TO: 3 – BELOW AVERAGE
• FG%: 53% - ABOVE AVERAGE
• FTA: 235 - AVERAGE
• FT%: 77.9% - AVERAGE
• 3P%: 45.6% - ABOVE AVERAGE
• TS%: 64.4% - ABOVE AVERAGE
• AstR: 28.3 - AVERAGE
• ToR: 10.9 - AVERAGE
• PER: 26.1 – ABOVE AVERAGE

Goran Dragic doesn’t show elite ability at anything, but he, across the board, a step above most PGs in the league. Scoring, assists, FG%, 3P%, TS%, and PER. This is a career year for Dragic, who at 27 year of age, still has plenty of time to improve even more. He’s a great player and on the rise. Is he worth a max?

Verdict: WORTH THE MAX


Derrick Rose:

• PPG: 28.1 – ELITE
• APG: 8.4 – ABOVE AVERAGE
• SPG: 0.9 – BELOW AVERAGE
• TO: 3.9 – TERRIBLE
• FG%: 49.6% - AVERAGE
• FTA: 521 – ELITE (I almost made a new category for this. It’s 3.5 Standard Deviations away from the mean!!)
• FT%: 79.5% - AVERAGE
• 3P%: 31.7% - AVERAGE
• TS%: 58.4 - AVERAGE
• AstR: 23.2 - AVERAGE
• ToR: 10.8 - AVERAGE
• PER: 27.3 – ABOVE AVERAGE

Derrick Rose is a lightning bolt of a PG. He’s elite at scoring and is seriously .1% away from being above average in FG%. That’s a great combo to have. At to the fact that he’s light years ahead of the league in drawing fouls and getting to the line. This is a dream from a PG. Like Dragic, Rose is having a career year at a young-ish age with years left on the contract. I expect rose to continue to improve throughout the life of the contract. Is he worth the max?

VERICT: WORTH THE MAX


Stephen Curry:

• PPG: 25.7 - ELITE
• APG: 7.2 – ABOVE AVERAGE
• SPG: 1.8 - AVERAGE
• TO: 3.3 – BELOW AVERAGE
• FG%: 50% - ABOVE AVERAGE
• FTA: 296 – ABOVE AVERAGE
• FT%: 89.5% - AVERAGE
• 3P%: 42.4% - ABOVE AVERAGE
• TS%: 62.8% - ABOVE AVERAGE
• AstR: 23.3 - AVERAGE
• ToR: 10.5 - AVERAGE
• PER: 28.7 – ELITE

Stephen Curry may not be OP, but statistically he is getting pretty close to that level. He is an elite scoring with above average shooting percentages, all while maintaining the ability to find open teammates. He and Deron Williams are the only Max PGs to post an Elite level PER. Again, another young-ish player that is having a career year with multiple years left on the deal. Dragic, Rose, and Curry all represent a very good generation of PGs. Is he worth a max?

VERDICT: WORTH THE MAX


Ty Lawson:

• PPG: 19.4 – ABOVE AVERAGE
• APG: 7.3 – ABOVE AVERAGE
• SPG: 2.1 – ABOVE AVERAGE
• TO: 2.6 - AVERAGE
• FG%: 45% - AVERAGE
• FTA: 296 – ABOVE AVERAGE
• FT%: 75% - AVERAGE
• 3P%: 38% - AVERAGE
• TS%: 56% - AVERAGE
• AstR: 27 - AVERAGE
• ToR: 9.5 - AVERAGE
• PER: 21.1 – AVERAGE

Ty Lawson is an interesting case. He is basically average across the board. He barely reaches the level of “Above Average” in PPG, APG, and SPG. He’s right on the cusp of being a just above average PG. I think his size and his over willingness to take a lot of shots, holds Ty Lawson back. For a scoring PG to basically be average at every scoring category, you have to be wondering if the Rockets will regret this Max down the road. Is he worth a max?

VERDICT: NOT WORTH THE MAX


Ricky Rubio:

• PPG: 15 - AVERAGE
• APG: 11.3 - ELITE
• SPG: 2.5 – ABOVE AVERAGE
• TO: 2.4 - AVERAGE
• FG%: 41% - AVERAGE
• FTA: 162 - AVERAGE
• FT%: 83.3% - AVERAGE
• 3P%: 35.9% - AVERAGE
• TS%: 52.4% - AVERAGE
• AstR: 40.4 - ELITE
• ToR: 8.5 - AVERAGE
• PER: 21.9 – ABOVE AVERAGE

Ricky Rubio is almost unexplainable at times. He is an average PG who is elite at maybe the most important PG stats: APG and ASTR. Add into the fact that he does post an above average PER and SPG, you must consider that Ricky Rubio may be a top PG in this league. He has shown great improvement in scoring this year. If he adds that to his game… the league better watch out. Is he worth a max?

VERDICT: MAYBE WORTH THE MAX


Tyreke Evans:

• PPG: 14.7 - AVERAGE
• APG: 5.8 - AVERAGE
• SPG: 1.9 – ABOVE AVERAGE
• TO: 2.6 - AVERAGE
• FG%: 45% - AVERAGE
• FTA: 123 – BELOW AVERAGE
• FT%: 70.7% - BELOW AVERAGE
• 3P%: 27.3% - BELOW AVERAGE
• TS%: 50.4% - AVERAGE
• AstR: 25.1 - AVERAGE
• ToR: 11.4 - AVERAGE
• PER: 18.9 - AVERAGE

If anyone knows me personal feelings about IRL Tyreke Evans, you will understand how much joy this brings me. Tyreke Evans isn’t even remotely better than average PG. He’s worse than the league average in 3 areas, and 2 other stats (TS% and ToR) are right on the edge. He doesn’t score well, doesn’t distribute the ball, and Tyreke doesn’t get to the FT line (doesn’t convert them either). How Tyreke Evans is B/B is beyond me. Beware of the fake blues people. Is he worth a max?

VERDICT: NOT WORTH THE MAX

Re: Is Your Max Contract PG Worth It?

Posted: Mon Apr 10, 2017 6:17 pm
by Inner_GI
To summarize:
Jameer NelsonNOT WORTH THE MAX
Delonte WestNOT WORTH THE MAX
Chris PaulWORTH THE MAX
Deron WilliamsWORTH THE MAX
Kyle LowryMAYBE WORTH THE MAX
Goran DragicWORTH THE MAX
Derrick RoseWORTH THE MAX
Stephen CurryWORTH THE MAX
Ty LawsonNOT WORTH THE MAX
Ricky RubioMAYBE WORTH THE MAX
Tyreke EvansNOT WORTH THE MAX

Re: Is Your Max Contract PG Worth It?

Posted: Mon Apr 10, 2017 6:46 pm
by kucoach7
Awesome analysis. Love this.

Re: Is Your Max Contract PG Worth It?

Posted: Mon Apr 10, 2017 6:48 pm
by Inner_GI
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Re: Is Your Max Contract PG Worth It?

Posted: Mon Apr 10, 2017 7:25 pm
by JNR
Excellent work. I'm excited for the whole series

Re: Is Your Max Contract PG Worth It?

Posted: Mon Apr 10, 2017 7:52 pm
by PaulyP
Loved it. Really good analysis on every guy

Re: Is Your Max Contract PG Worth It?

Posted: Mon Apr 10, 2017 8:29 pm
by NOLa.
Awesome article and idea.


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Re: Is Your Max Contract PG Worth It?

Posted: Mon Apr 10, 2017 8:54 pm
by Inner_GI
JNR wrote:Excellent work. I'm excited for the whole series
Not gonna lie. Probably won't be until next season. I'm at media cap :(


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Re: Is Your Max Contract PG Worth It?

Posted: Mon Apr 10, 2017 10:09 pm
by JNR
That pesky media cap. If only there was a way to get around that...

Re: Is Your Max Contract PG Worth It?

Posted: Tue Apr 11, 2017 10:41 am
by NickMalone77
Thank you for your media contribution, Logan. You may be able to collect your +5 unless you are already at your media cap of +15.

Re: Is Your Max Contract PG Worth It?

Posted: Tue Apr 11, 2017 1:42 pm
by IamQuailman
That was a fantastic read!

Re: Is Your Max Contract PG Worth It?

Posted: Wed May 03, 2017 6:17 pm
by LoCo89
Bump

Re: Is Your Max Contract PG Worth It?

Posted: Wed May 03, 2017 6:20 pm
by TheSyndicate
LoCo89 wrote: Wed May 03, 2017 6:17 pmBump
Glol