PBSL Playoff Preview And Predictions
Posted: Sun Feb 19, 2017 11:30 pm
It’s PBSL playoffs time again, which to me, means the three weeks where I withdrawal from my simulated basketball addiction and instead dream up trade scenarios that never happen. But my doctor said that this post-season, I should try to keep productive instead of mentally shopping Gordon Hayward for a couple of solid roleplayers and a late pick.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Clippers (1) vs. Nuggets (8)
Last year, the Denver Nuggets shocked the league by efficiently taking down the Minnesota Timberwolves and their best record in the regular season in the first round. This year, they find themselves in the same spot, having to slay another giant. The Clippers, however, are starting the playoffs with the best player in the league, Kevin Durant, sidelined with a foot injury. This could spell bad news for the Clippers as the Nuggets are stacked with talent.
The Clippers scored some big wins without Durant, including a victory over the league-best Atlanta Hawks, and they went 3-1 against Denver during the regular season, but the one loss came without Durant. If the Clippers want to hang in, they’re going to have to hold off the Nuggets and push the series to 7. However, I think the Nuggets will take advantage. They were great heads up in the playoffs last year, and I think they’ll pull it out before Durant can come back and do some damage.
PREDICTION: Nuggets in 6
Kings (4) vs. Warriors (5)
The two Northern California teams facing off in round one should put on an incredible show in the playoffs. Both teams have been dynamite from the three point line, and they’ll give us a true battle between offense and defense with the Dubs having an elite offense and the Kings are one of the best defensive teams in the league.
They split their season series 2-2 with each team grabbing a win on the road. This series could go either way, and it’s going to come down to coaching. DeMarcus Cousins will have his hands full guarding Zach Randolph, but during the regular season, the Kings fared better with Cousins at PF. He was able to stay out of foul trouble and keep Randolph’s FG% down. If he can do that consistently, it’ll come down to stopping Steph Curry.
This series comes down to 7, but with both teams healthy, the Warriors are 2-0. And both teams are healthy.
PREDICTION: Warriors in 7
Spurs (3) vs. Trailblazers (6)
When Ron Artest went down to a broken leg midseason, people thought that the Blazers were in serious trouble. Derrick Rose, however, rose to the occasion, stepping up his game to keep the Trailblazers in it. All four of their regular season matchups were without Artest, and Portland split with San Antonio. Curiously enough, both of those Spurs wins were without their star PG, Russell Westbrook.
I wouldn’t count the Trailblazers out so easily, and I think this will be a closer series than it looks on paper. Still, San Antonio is coming off a championship year, and I think their offense and their excellent performance in playoff series will be hard for a shorthanded Trailblazers to overcome. Rose and Hunter will keep it a close series, but the Spurs have too many other options to put points on the board. Defense may win championships, but it’s only the first round.
PREDICTION: Spurs in 6
Timberwolves (2) vs. Jazz (7)
The Timberwolves have built themselves a great reputation over the last several seasons, but they also have a less than sterling playoff reputation. The Jazz are going to be a better matchup for them than the Nuggets were last year.
I think this matchup comes down to each team’s best player. Luol Deng has consistently been a good answer to defend Paul George. The Jazz, however, don’t really have the same answer for Chris Bosh. In their four previous meetings, in which the T-Wolves had a 3-1 series advantage, Bosh never scored less than 40 points.
The Wolves are finally going to see that second round, and they’re going to do it faster than any of the other teams in the West.
PREDICTION: Timberwolves in 5
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Heat (3) vs. Nets (6)
Even on the road, the Heat have gone 3-0 against the Nets, winning by double digits in every situation. Having lost to the Spurs in last year’s finals by the slimmest of margins, the Heat come back with pretty much the same team, and they’re just as good as they were last season.
The Nets are in the middle of the playoff pack, and they’ll need to figure something out to have better luck against the Heat. However, the Heat are just too stacked...especially if Chris Kaman sits with a fractured jaw. Despite injuries, the Nets finished at .500, which is sadly a fantastic record for their conference. However, the gulch between the top few teams in the East and the rest of the field is super wide. The Heat take this easily.
PREDICTION: Heat in 4
76ers (2) vs. Celtics (7)
Last year, the 76ers couldn’t follow up their championship run with a visit to the Finals, and they’re looking to compete one last time before dropping Tracy McGrady’s contract and making some changes to their look for the future. The 6ers had a tremendous regular season while Boston’s was shaky...signs of brilliance mixed with slumps.
Boston made some midseason moves that seemed to pay off, netting them some 3 point threats in JR Smith and JJ Reddick while losing Carl Landry. Offensively, however, the Celtics have more of a balance than a go-to guy. Against the best defense in the league, they’re going to have a real hard time finding matchups to exploit. Their shooters are going to have to be on the whole time, and if they can respond to the pressure of the playoffs with more gusto than they had in the regular season, they have a shot, but that’s going to be a tall order against Philadelphia.
PREDICTION: 76ers in 5
Wizards (4) vs. Cavaliers (5)
Easily the best matchup in the first round for the Eastern Conference, the Wizards and Cavs went 2-2 against each other during the regular season. Their overall records were separated by a game. This series is going to be a very hard fought game to see who’s going to have to overcome an even tougher opponent in round 2, and it’s surely going to take a lot out of both groups.
One of the Wizards wins came during Carlos Boozer’s injury, which lost the Cavs a lot of ground and seated them with a slightly worse record than their roster could’ve had. For his part, Boozer has played incredibly well against the Wizards, and that should be a deciding factor in this series. Illyasova has had a great year, and he can provide some offense, but he can’t stop Carlos Boozer.
The Wizards have a lot of weapons, and they’ll put up a huge fight here, but unless they can use some creative lineups to stifle the Cavs edge in talent, Cleveland should make it out of this, albeit scathed.
PREDICTION: Cavaliers in 7
Hawks (1) vs. Pacers (8)
It’s the best team in the Eastern Conference vs. Deron Williams and a bunch of other dudes. Deron was enough to squeak Indiana into the playoffs with a less-than-playoff-worthy record, but he is not enough to have much of a chance against the incredibly stacked Hawks. ‘Nuff said.
PREDICTION: Hawks in 4
But that’s not all, folks...I’m on a roll and I’m packing a bowl. Onto round 2, albeit more slowly as I get shwifty.
ROUND 2
Warriors (5) vs. Nuggets (8)
Can Denver have the same success (or more) from the 8th spot as they did last year? They’ve got a shot. Denver’s defense is going to have to come up big if they want to take down a healthy Warriors team. That’s something the Nuggets struggled to do, going 1-3 against the Dubs, despite keeping it close.
It’s possible, but I think it’ll be tough. It all comes down to personnel. The Nuggets best offensive player, Rajon Rondo, could use more than Klay Thompson to dish to reliably, and Klay himself is fantastic, though young. Dwyane Wade has been getting significant bench minutes, and he’s not the best fit with Rondo. The Warriors bench doesn’t have someone like Wade who can keep the Nuggets productive for the entire game, but the Dubs also have some incredible starting talent who will be seeing big minutes, which should counteract the Nuggets’ strong bench.
PREDICTION: Warriors in 6
Timberwolves (2) vs. Spurs (3)
If the Spurs want a repeat, they’re going to have a real challenge ahead of them with the Timberwolves. With the monkey of not escaping the first round off Minnesota’s back, that’s going to be an even tougher test. Where Bosh was dominant against the Jazz, he’s also been dominant against San Antonio, etching 50 points twice in one week!
Tim Duncan’s absence due to injury proved that Hamed Haddadi could step in and provide some solid defense, and with that one-two punch in the center spot, the T-Wolves look like they’ll be hard to stop. Add Luol Deng into the mix, and that’s plenty of big men that Josh Smith will have to worry about.
The Spurs weren’t able to beat the Timberwolves once this season. They’ll score some wins in the post-season, but I don’t think they’ll score the 4 they need.
PREDICTION: Timberwolves in 6
76ers (2) vs, Heat (3)
Onto the East, we get a fantastic semi-final match between Atlantic Division rivals. These teams know each other well, so it’ll be an incredible rematch from last year’s semi-finals where the Heat edged the 76ers in 7 games.
This season, Philadelphia clearly had the edge over the Heat. They lost only 1 to Miami, and that was with their aging bigs resting for the playoffs. That rest should pay off as a healthy 76ers team with home court advantage will edge out the Heat and get revenge from last year.
That’s not going to be an easy task, though. The Heat have players like LeBron, who will rise up for big game situations, and make this a very long and interesting series. If the Heat stay hot, they can push it to 7, but I don’t think lightning will strike twice.
PREDICTION: 76ers in 6
Hawks (1) vs. Cavaliers (5)
There were only two teams that beat the Hawks more than once, and both of those teams were out in the West (Kings and Spurs), so the Cavaliers weren’t one of them. The one time that the Cavs did best the Hawks, it was without Carlos Boozer and, interestingly enough, in Atlanta.
With Boozer back, the game changes. The weakest spot on the Hawks is against Boozer, but the strongest spot for the Hawks is at SF, where Carmelo Anthony has consistently torched the Cavs, who don’t have a good answer for him at the 3 spot. While both teams will put on an awesome offensive display, the Cavs have far more problems to address on defense.
This is where defense starts winning those championships. The Cavs are a solid team, but the Hawks just have too much on both ends of the court to be denied the Conference Finals.
PREDICTION: Hawks in 5
CONFERENCE FINALS
Timberwolves (2) vs. Warriors (5)
We’re going to see some of our best basketball played in the conference finals. Both sides will have heated matchups, but the Western Conference is the one I’m most interested in since it seems like less of a foregone conclusion as to which teams will make it here in the first place.
The Warriors will provide the Timberwolves’ toughest playoff challenge. They’re the team that’s most suited to at least slow down Chris Bosh. With DeAndre Jordan and Zach Randolph, the Timberwolves needed to exploit the matchup at SF a lot more, and Luol Deng had to come up big in both regular season wins against the Warriors.
The Timberwolves will have relied heavily on Bosh in the previous two series, and it’s going to be all about how much momentum Bosh can keep playing with at this point. As his matchups get tougher, I see the Wolves streak ending here. Between Curry and Z-Bo, the Warriors have more offensive options and a more favorable overall matchup than the Jazz or the Spurs. It’ll be close, but I don’t think it’ll be 7 games close.
PREDICTION: Warriors in 6
Hawks (1) vs. 76ers (2)
I don’t think there will be any surprises in the Eastern Conference finals. The two best teams out East will exchange blows for a spot in the Finals. The 76ers played the Hawks well in the regular season, but never well enough to etch a win.
Rudy Gay and Carmelo Anthony will prove too impossible of a scoring tandem, and despite Chandler and Stoudemire manning the 4 and 5 spots, Joakim Noah will make for a gritty matchup on the glass. The series will be a lot closer than it looks in the history books, though.
PREDICTION: Hawks in 5
THE NBA FINALS
Hawks (1) vs. Warriors (5)
It’s going to be a high scoring, interesting Finals, and I think that these two teams have a set of strengths and weaknesses that will mesh to make a back and forth series. The two teams split their two matches in the regular season, and I think despite the very different looking records, these teams are very evenly matched.
The Hawks were one of a couple truly dominant teams in the weaker of two conferences. They fared well against the West, and if the Hawks were put in the other conference, they would still have home court advantage in the playoffs, but they may not have been able to wrest the top seed. In fact, I’ll say that they still finish better than the Warriors.
However, I think the Warriors match up better against the Hawks than some teams out West with better records.
Noah and Chandler will be a fantastic, even matchup to watch. For the Warriors, Curry and Z-Bo should be able to exploit favorable matchups. For the Hawks, they can counter by doing the same with Rudy Gay and Carmelo Anthony.
With Pau Gasol leading the Hawks’ bench andRashard Lewis, still productive at 33, in a similar situation for the Hawks, both teams are a good match on the bench, too. It might come down to home court advantage to tip the scales in Atlanta’s favor.
As far as intangibles go, the Warriors fought a tougher conference all season and came out strong. They’ll have come through a tougher playoff run than the Hawks, so momentum will be peaking hard once they hit the Finals. If they want to win, their stars are going to have to be incredible. Their coaching is going to have to be sharp.
I think this series will go all the way.
PREDICTION: Golden State Warriors win the NBA Finals in 7
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Clippers (1) vs. Nuggets (8)
Last year, the Denver Nuggets shocked the league by efficiently taking down the Minnesota Timberwolves and their best record in the regular season in the first round. This year, they find themselves in the same spot, having to slay another giant. The Clippers, however, are starting the playoffs with the best player in the league, Kevin Durant, sidelined with a foot injury. This could spell bad news for the Clippers as the Nuggets are stacked with talent.
The Clippers scored some big wins without Durant, including a victory over the league-best Atlanta Hawks, and they went 3-1 against Denver during the regular season, but the one loss came without Durant. If the Clippers want to hang in, they’re going to have to hold off the Nuggets and push the series to 7. However, I think the Nuggets will take advantage. They were great heads up in the playoffs last year, and I think they’ll pull it out before Durant can come back and do some damage.
PREDICTION: Nuggets in 6
Kings (4) vs. Warriors (5)
The two Northern California teams facing off in round one should put on an incredible show in the playoffs. Both teams have been dynamite from the three point line, and they’ll give us a true battle between offense and defense with the Dubs having an elite offense and the Kings are one of the best defensive teams in the league.
They split their season series 2-2 with each team grabbing a win on the road. This series could go either way, and it’s going to come down to coaching. DeMarcus Cousins will have his hands full guarding Zach Randolph, but during the regular season, the Kings fared better with Cousins at PF. He was able to stay out of foul trouble and keep Randolph’s FG% down. If he can do that consistently, it’ll come down to stopping Steph Curry.
This series comes down to 7, but with both teams healthy, the Warriors are 2-0. And both teams are healthy.
PREDICTION: Warriors in 7
Spurs (3) vs. Trailblazers (6)
When Ron Artest went down to a broken leg midseason, people thought that the Blazers were in serious trouble. Derrick Rose, however, rose to the occasion, stepping up his game to keep the Trailblazers in it. All four of their regular season matchups were without Artest, and Portland split with San Antonio. Curiously enough, both of those Spurs wins were without their star PG, Russell Westbrook.
I wouldn’t count the Trailblazers out so easily, and I think this will be a closer series than it looks on paper. Still, San Antonio is coming off a championship year, and I think their offense and their excellent performance in playoff series will be hard for a shorthanded Trailblazers to overcome. Rose and Hunter will keep it a close series, but the Spurs have too many other options to put points on the board. Defense may win championships, but it’s only the first round.
PREDICTION: Spurs in 6
Timberwolves (2) vs. Jazz (7)
The Timberwolves have built themselves a great reputation over the last several seasons, but they also have a less than sterling playoff reputation. The Jazz are going to be a better matchup for them than the Nuggets were last year.
I think this matchup comes down to each team’s best player. Luol Deng has consistently been a good answer to defend Paul George. The Jazz, however, don’t really have the same answer for Chris Bosh. In their four previous meetings, in which the T-Wolves had a 3-1 series advantage, Bosh never scored less than 40 points.
The Wolves are finally going to see that second round, and they’re going to do it faster than any of the other teams in the West.
PREDICTION: Timberwolves in 5
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Heat (3) vs. Nets (6)
Even on the road, the Heat have gone 3-0 against the Nets, winning by double digits in every situation. Having lost to the Spurs in last year’s finals by the slimmest of margins, the Heat come back with pretty much the same team, and they’re just as good as they were last season.
The Nets are in the middle of the playoff pack, and they’ll need to figure something out to have better luck against the Heat. However, the Heat are just too stacked...especially if Chris Kaman sits with a fractured jaw. Despite injuries, the Nets finished at .500, which is sadly a fantastic record for their conference. However, the gulch between the top few teams in the East and the rest of the field is super wide. The Heat take this easily.
PREDICTION: Heat in 4
76ers (2) vs. Celtics (7)
Last year, the 76ers couldn’t follow up their championship run with a visit to the Finals, and they’re looking to compete one last time before dropping Tracy McGrady’s contract and making some changes to their look for the future. The 6ers had a tremendous regular season while Boston’s was shaky...signs of brilliance mixed with slumps.
Boston made some midseason moves that seemed to pay off, netting them some 3 point threats in JR Smith and JJ Reddick while losing Carl Landry. Offensively, however, the Celtics have more of a balance than a go-to guy. Against the best defense in the league, they’re going to have a real hard time finding matchups to exploit. Their shooters are going to have to be on the whole time, and if they can respond to the pressure of the playoffs with more gusto than they had in the regular season, they have a shot, but that’s going to be a tall order against Philadelphia.
PREDICTION: 76ers in 5
Wizards (4) vs. Cavaliers (5)
Easily the best matchup in the first round for the Eastern Conference, the Wizards and Cavs went 2-2 against each other during the regular season. Their overall records were separated by a game. This series is going to be a very hard fought game to see who’s going to have to overcome an even tougher opponent in round 2, and it’s surely going to take a lot out of both groups.
One of the Wizards wins came during Carlos Boozer’s injury, which lost the Cavs a lot of ground and seated them with a slightly worse record than their roster could’ve had. For his part, Boozer has played incredibly well against the Wizards, and that should be a deciding factor in this series. Illyasova has had a great year, and he can provide some offense, but he can’t stop Carlos Boozer.
The Wizards have a lot of weapons, and they’ll put up a huge fight here, but unless they can use some creative lineups to stifle the Cavs edge in talent, Cleveland should make it out of this, albeit scathed.
PREDICTION: Cavaliers in 7
Hawks (1) vs. Pacers (8)
It’s the best team in the Eastern Conference vs. Deron Williams and a bunch of other dudes. Deron was enough to squeak Indiana into the playoffs with a less-than-playoff-worthy record, but he is not enough to have much of a chance against the incredibly stacked Hawks. ‘Nuff said.
PREDICTION: Hawks in 4
But that’s not all, folks...I’m on a roll and I’m packing a bowl. Onto round 2, albeit more slowly as I get shwifty.
ROUND 2
Warriors (5) vs. Nuggets (8)
Can Denver have the same success (or more) from the 8th spot as they did last year? They’ve got a shot. Denver’s defense is going to have to come up big if they want to take down a healthy Warriors team. That’s something the Nuggets struggled to do, going 1-3 against the Dubs, despite keeping it close.
It’s possible, but I think it’ll be tough. It all comes down to personnel. The Nuggets best offensive player, Rajon Rondo, could use more than Klay Thompson to dish to reliably, and Klay himself is fantastic, though young. Dwyane Wade has been getting significant bench minutes, and he’s not the best fit with Rondo. The Warriors bench doesn’t have someone like Wade who can keep the Nuggets productive for the entire game, but the Dubs also have some incredible starting talent who will be seeing big minutes, which should counteract the Nuggets’ strong bench.
PREDICTION: Warriors in 6
Timberwolves (2) vs. Spurs (3)
If the Spurs want a repeat, they’re going to have a real challenge ahead of them with the Timberwolves. With the monkey of not escaping the first round off Minnesota’s back, that’s going to be an even tougher test. Where Bosh was dominant against the Jazz, he’s also been dominant against San Antonio, etching 50 points twice in one week!
Tim Duncan’s absence due to injury proved that Hamed Haddadi could step in and provide some solid defense, and with that one-two punch in the center spot, the T-Wolves look like they’ll be hard to stop. Add Luol Deng into the mix, and that’s plenty of big men that Josh Smith will have to worry about.
The Spurs weren’t able to beat the Timberwolves once this season. They’ll score some wins in the post-season, but I don’t think they’ll score the 4 they need.
PREDICTION: Timberwolves in 6
76ers (2) vs, Heat (3)
Onto the East, we get a fantastic semi-final match between Atlantic Division rivals. These teams know each other well, so it’ll be an incredible rematch from last year’s semi-finals where the Heat edged the 76ers in 7 games.
This season, Philadelphia clearly had the edge over the Heat. They lost only 1 to Miami, and that was with their aging bigs resting for the playoffs. That rest should pay off as a healthy 76ers team with home court advantage will edge out the Heat and get revenge from last year.
That’s not going to be an easy task, though. The Heat have players like LeBron, who will rise up for big game situations, and make this a very long and interesting series. If the Heat stay hot, they can push it to 7, but I don’t think lightning will strike twice.
PREDICTION: 76ers in 6
Hawks (1) vs. Cavaliers (5)
There were only two teams that beat the Hawks more than once, and both of those teams were out in the West (Kings and Spurs), so the Cavaliers weren’t one of them. The one time that the Cavs did best the Hawks, it was without Carlos Boozer and, interestingly enough, in Atlanta.
With Boozer back, the game changes. The weakest spot on the Hawks is against Boozer, but the strongest spot for the Hawks is at SF, where Carmelo Anthony has consistently torched the Cavs, who don’t have a good answer for him at the 3 spot. While both teams will put on an awesome offensive display, the Cavs have far more problems to address on defense.
This is where defense starts winning those championships. The Cavs are a solid team, but the Hawks just have too much on both ends of the court to be denied the Conference Finals.
PREDICTION: Hawks in 5
CONFERENCE FINALS
Timberwolves (2) vs. Warriors (5)
We’re going to see some of our best basketball played in the conference finals. Both sides will have heated matchups, but the Western Conference is the one I’m most interested in since it seems like less of a foregone conclusion as to which teams will make it here in the first place.
The Warriors will provide the Timberwolves’ toughest playoff challenge. They’re the team that’s most suited to at least slow down Chris Bosh. With DeAndre Jordan and Zach Randolph, the Timberwolves needed to exploit the matchup at SF a lot more, and Luol Deng had to come up big in both regular season wins against the Warriors.
The Timberwolves will have relied heavily on Bosh in the previous two series, and it’s going to be all about how much momentum Bosh can keep playing with at this point. As his matchups get tougher, I see the Wolves streak ending here. Between Curry and Z-Bo, the Warriors have more offensive options and a more favorable overall matchup than the Jazz or the Spurs. It’ll be close, but I don’t think it’ll be 7 games close.
PREDICTION: Warriors in 6
Hawks (1) vs. 76ers (2)
I don’t think there will be any surprises in the Eastern Conference finals. The two best teams out East will exchange blows for a spot in the Finals. The 76ers played the Hawks well in the regular season, but never well enough to etch a win.
Rudy Gay and Carmelo Anthony will prove too impossible of a scoring tandem, and despite Chandler and Stoudemire manning the 4 and 5 spots, Joakim Noah will make for a gritty matchup on the glass. The series will be a lot closer than it looks in the history books, though.
PREDICTION: Hawks in 5
THE NBA FINALS
Hawks (1) vs. Warriors (5)
It’s going to be a high scoring, interesting Finals, and I think that these two teams have a set of strengths and weaknesses that will mesh to make a back and forth series. The two teams split their two matches in the regular season, and I think despite the very different looking records, these teams are very evenly matched.
The Hawks were one of a couple truly dominant teams in the weaker of two conferences. They fared well against the West, and if the Hawks were put in the other conference, they would still have home court advantage in the playoffs, but they may not have been able to wrest the top seed. In fact, I’ll say that they still finish better than the Warriors.
However, I think the Warriors match up better against the Hawks than some teams out West with better records.
Noah and Chandler will be a fantastic, even matchup to watch. For the Warriors, Curry and Z-Bo should be able to exploit favorable matchups. For the Hawks, they can counter by doing the same with Rudy Gay and Carmelo Anthony.
With Pau Gasol leading the Hawks’ bench andRashard Lewis, still productive at 33, in a similar situation for the Hawks, both teams are a good match on the bench, too. It might come down to home court advantage to tip the scales in Atlanta’s favor.
As far as intangibles go, the Warriors fought a tougher conference all season and came out strong. They’ll have come through a tougher playoff run than the Hawks, so momentum will be peaking hard once they hit the Finals. If they want to win, their stars are going to have to be incredible. Their coaching is going to have to be sharp.
I think this series will go all the way.
PREDICTION: Golden State Warriors win the NBA Finals in 7