2011-12 Rookie of the Year Rankings
Posted: Fri Dec 09, 2016 4:22 pm
Welcome to the Rookie Rankings. To qualify, players must have 0 years of service time, and be averaging at least 30 minutes per game (Sorry, Alec Burks). We'll go in reverse order, and broken out by division. Each division is named after a previous winner of the NBA's Rookie of the Year. I'll update at the end of the year, and maybe even once before that if I have time.
Keep in mind, these are rankings for performance during THIS season, and though the analysis might reference it, the rankings themselves do not factor potentials into them.
The Woody Sauldsberry Memorial "Why are you even in this article?" Division
In 1957, Woody Sauldsberry was drafted in Round 8 by the Philadelphia Warriors. The following year in 1958, he was named the league's Rookie of the Year — becoming the lowest overall draft pick ever to win the award, a record he still holds. Statistically, Woody Sauldsberry was an extremely poor shooter, having a field goal percentage of just 34.8% for his career. As a result, he has the lowest number of win shares of any player in NBA history, -7.9. After becoming bitter over discrimination and shunning the basketball world, he died in poverty in Baltimore, Maryland after having a foot amputated due to diabetes.
9. Enes Kanter - Center - Milwaukee Bucks
2011 Stats: 30.8 minutes 6.1ppg, 6.9rpg
In all due respect to Enes, if he were on any other team, he wouldn't be on this list. On the lowly Bucks, though, he's forced into playing almost two-thirds of every game when he's really not ready to suit up against NBA players. He has the potential to grow into a solid player, but for now his NBA-worst -3.7 EWA (only one other player is lower than -2.1) indicates he's easily the worst full-time player in the league.
Trending: With 7.2ppg/7.5rpg in the past month helped significantly by a 20! point game, Enes is ranked right where he should be.
The Derrick Coleman "I didn't realize that guy was a thing" Division
Coleman was the #1 overall pick in the 1990 NBA draft after a successful college career. He had a solid rookie season and went on to win the NBA Rookie of the Year Award in 1991. When Coleman entered the NBA, he was compared to elite power forwards such as Karl Malone and Charles Barkley, and expected to put up similar numbers, only with the added ability to shoot from three-point range. Instead, his career was overshadowed by numerous injuries and attitude problems. Sports Illustrated once remarked that "Coleman could have been the best power forward ever; instead he played just well enough to ensure his next paycheck."
8. Nikola Vucevic - Center - Detroit Pistons
2011 Stats: 35.9 minutes 8.6ppg, 7.9rpg
Nikola is a solid, if unspectacular center for Detroit who has plenty of room in his offensive and defensive game to improve. After the excitement that surrounded the potential for the Dwight Howard era in Detroit ultimately morphed into disappointment, Nikola represents a much less exciting, but perhaps ultimately more productive young player.
Trending: If this article had come out earlier in the season, Nikola might have been ranked higher after a much better first half. He's cooled down significantly, only registering 1 double-double in February after having no less than 3 in any previous month.
7. Tristan Thompson - Forward - New Jersey Nets
2011 Stats: 34.8 minutes 8.9ppg, 9.5rpg
If Tristan can ever figure out how to convert the 4 offensive rebounds he averages a game into easy buckets, he's going to be a rock-star in this league. Though he's already one of the best rebounders in the NBA, Tristan may not have much more room to grow. Luckily for him, that doesn't matter in this discussion, but the ROY voters are often drawn to scoring numbers, and the rest of the players on this list all average double-digits per game.
Trending: Tristan's February was pretty much in line with his season stats.
The Emeka Okafor "3 Rookie of the Month" Division
Okafor's 2004–05 NBA season was a successful campaign as he coped well with the pressures of being the star rookie on an expansion franchise. Highlights of the season included recording 19 straight double-doubles from November 21 through January 1, and finishing seventh among Eastern Conference forwards in NBA All-Star Game fan balloting with 408,082 votes, by far the highest number garnered by any rookie in 2005. At the end of the season, Okafor beat out his friend and former college teammate and roommate, Chicago Bulls guard Ben Gordon, who each had 3 Rookie of the Month selections, to win the NBA Rookie of the Year Award.
6. Kenneth Faried - Forward - New York Knicks
2011 Stats: 32.8 minutes 12.2ppg, 8.4rpg, 2.7 EWA
With 3.3 more points and only one less board in 2 less minutes per game, Kenneth Faried is just a bit better rookie than Tristan Thompson. The SLOE-computer apparently agrees, giving him the Rookie of the Month award for the first 3 months of the season. He doesn't move up further in this list, because unlike Emeka's competition in 2005, his competition this year is STACKED.
Trending: Faried is definitely trending downwards having lost the Eastern Conference ROM award for the first time this season, and failing to register double-digit points in 7 of 13 February games.
The Andrew Wiggins "If he ever lives up to his potential, the rest of the league is SCREWED" Division
"On February 7, 2013, after an article in Sports Illustrated criticized Canadian basketball and Wiggins' work ethic, he responded later that day, scoring 57 points in a 111–59 win over Marietta College."
5. Isaiah Thomas - Guard - Seattle Supersonics
2011 Stats: 34.8 minutes 16.1ppg, 3.1rpb, 4.9apg, 3.5 EWA
Isaiah Thomas is athletic, quick, and can already score as a rookie. With unrealized A potentials inside and beyond-the-arc, he could be a headache for Western Conference backcourts for years to come. In other words, if he ever lives up to his potential, the rest of the league is SCREWED. That being said, he hasn't won a Rookie of the Month award, and is probably playing as well as his current ratings allow.
Trending: Isaiah had a middling February, where he averaged less than 15ppg and 4.8apg. He'll need an unbelievable end to the season to crack the top 3 of this list.
The Kyrie Irving "Kyrie Irving" Division
Irving won the 2012 NBA Rookie of the Year Award, receiving 117 of a possible 120 first-place votes. He was also the only unanimous selection to the NBA All-Rookie First Team. For the season, Irving averaged 18.5 points, 5.4 assists and shot 46.9 percent from the field, including 39.9 percent on three-pointers. Irving enjoys reading and keeping a journal. He also likes to sing, dance, and play the baritone sax.
4. Kyrie Irving - Guard - Milwaukee Bucks
2011 Stats: 33.7 minutes 19.7ppg, 3.6rpb, 3.1apg, 17.1 PER 4.0 EWA
We're at the point of the rankings where you could really make an argument for any of the remaining guys to go in an alternative order. I've been back and forth on this spot a few times, but who else could be in the Kyrie Irving division? Kyrie leads all rookies in points per game, is second in PER, and is the only Eastern Conference player not named Kenneth to win a Rookie of the Month award. That being said, his defensive game isn't there yet, and his PER is inflated by a 27.8% USG rating. These two factors move him behind the next players on our list. The margins are razor-thin.
Trending: Kyrie's February was right in line with his season line. He had two 39-point games and 3 single-digit scoring games. If he improves his consistency, he'll shoot up this list.
The Tim Duncan "All-Defense" Division
From the beginning, Duncan established himself as a quality player: in his second-ever road game, he grabbed 22 rebounds against opposing Chicago Bulls Hall of Fame power forward Dennis Rodman, a multiple rebounding champion and NBA Defensive Player of the Year. Duncan was voted to the 1998 NBA All-Star Game by coaches. Later, when Duncan played against opposing Houston Rockets Hall of Fame power forward Charles Barkley, Barkley was so impressed he said: "I have seen the future and he wears number 21." In his rookie season, Duncan lived up to expectations of being the number one draft pick, starting in all 82 regular-season games, averaging 21.1 points, 11.9 rebounds, 2.7 assists and 2.5 blocks per game, and earning All-NBA First Team honors. His defensive contributions ensured that he was elected to the NBA All-Defensive Second Team and was also named NBA Rookie of the Year, having won the NBA Rookie of the Month award every single month that season.
3. Kawhi Leonard - Forward - VanMemphis Grizzlies
2011 Stats: 33 minutes, 12.9ppg, 6.2rpg, 2.4apg, 2.2spg 16.0 PER 5.1 EWA
If the NBA worked like the NFL and had an Offensive and Defensive ROY, Leonard would win the defensive side hands down. His 2.2 steals per game are good for 6th in the league. He shoots 37.4% from deep, and has a 16.0 PER despite a usage percentage of just 18.4. That is offensive efficiency. He doesn't have gaudy numbers in any one category, and aside from steals - defensive stats are tough to gauge. Letting the game assist in this regard - Leonard has only won one Rookie of the Month in the West. The next two players on this list have the numbers, and have won the other 3.
Trending: Leonard's November was EASILY his best month. Aside from a ludicrous 9-steal affair in January, his numbers have been steadily trending downwards since. Unless both the top-2 players have terrible last thirds of the season, Leonard will merely be a very talented two-way player with the potential to be the next Ron Artest. He won't, though, be the Rookie of the Year.
The Michael Jordan "Contenders" Division
During his first season in the NBA, Jordan averaged 28.2 ppg on 51.5% shooting. He quickly became a fan favorite even in opposing arenas, and appeared on the cover of Sports Illustrated with the heading "A Star Is Born" just over a month into his professional career. Jordan was also voted in as an All-Star starter by the fans in his rookie season. Controversy arose before the All-Star game when word surfaced that several veteran players, led by Isiah Thomas, were upset by the amount of attention Jordan was receiving. This led to a so-called "freeze-out" on Jordan, where players refused to pass him the ball throughout the game. The controversy left Jordan relatively unaffected when he returned to regular season play, and he would go on to be voted Rookie of the Year.
2. Klay Thompson - Guard - Denver Nuggets
2011 Stats: 35.5 minutes, 19.3ppg, 4.5rpg, 2.2apg 16.4 PER 5.9 EWA
These two could be flipped, and if this had come out at the end of January they probably would have been. Klay does most things VERY well on the offensive end scoring almost 20 points per game while shooting .455/.938/.398. His 93.8% FT% is the best in the NBA. It's hard to discern his defensive impact, but given his ratings and +/- numbers, Klay is most likely slightly below average defensively. The potentials are there for him to be solid on that side of the ball, but not yet. He does lead all rookies in Estimated Wins Added, which could be enough to put him over the hill when all is said and done, but right now he's just the slightest hair below our favorite. And I don't want LoCo to accuse me of being a homer, either.
Trending: After a red-hot December/January that saw Klay garner two Rookie of the Months, and at one point scored double-digits in 19 straight. This race is going down to the wire.
1. Jimmy Butler - Guard - VanMemphis Grizzlies
2011 Stats: 34.6 minutes, 17.5ppg, 4.3rpg, 3.4apg 18.7 PER 5.1 EWA
He's the most efficient rookie scorer, has the highest PER, and won the most recent Rookie of the Month award in the Western Conference. He's shooting 49.5% from the field - a full 4% higher than Klay. He also averages a full assist more per game than does Thompson. Though not leading the league, he's still very good from the free throw line, though could use some work from beyond the arc. He has a much higher defensive potential than Thompson, and his currents are higher as well. His efficiency and defensive skills put him over Klay at this snapshot juncture.
Trending: His February won him the ROM with a 17.8pt/4.5rb/4.1ast line, if he has another two months like this - he can probably hold off Klay.
Keep in mind, these are rankings for performance during THIS season, and though the analysis might reference it, the rankings themselves do not factor potentials into them.
The Woody Sauldsberry Memorial "Why are you even in this article?" Division
In 1957, Woody Sauldsberry was drafted in Round 8 by the Philadelphia Warriors. The following year in 1958, he was named the league's Rookie of the Year — becoming the lowest overall draft pick ever to win the award, a record he still holds. Statistically, Woody Sauldsberry was an extremely poor shooter, having a field goal percentage of just 34.8% for his career. As a result, he has the lowest number of win shares of any player in NBA history, -7.9. After becoming bitter over discrimination and shunning the basketball world, he died in poverty in Baltimore, Maryland after having a foot amputated due to diabetes.
9. Enes Kanter - Center - Milwaukee Bucks
2011 Stats: 30.8 minutes 6.1ppg, 6.9rpg
In all due respect to Enes, if he were on any other team, he wouldn't be on this list. On the lowly Bucks, though, he's forced into playing almost two-thirds of every game when he's really not ready to suit up against NBA players. He has the potential to grow into a solid player, but for now his NBA-worst -3.7 EWA (only one other player is lower than -2.1) indicates he's easily the worst full-time player in the league.
Trending: With 7.2ppg/7.5rpg in the past month helped significantly by a 20! point game, Enes is ranked right where he should be.
The Derrick Coleman "I didn't realize that guy was a thing" Division
Coleman was the #1 overall pick in the 1990 NBA draft after a successful college career. He had a solid rookie season and went on to win the NBA Rookie of the Year Award in 1991. When Coleman entered the NBA, he was compared to elite power forwards such as Karl Malone and Charles Barkley, and expected to put up similar numbers, only with the added ability to shoot from three-point range. Instead, his career was overshadowed by numerous injuries and attitude problems. Sports Illustrated once remarked that "Coleman could have been the best power forward ever; instead he played just well enough to ensure his next paycheck."
8. Nikola Vucevic - Center - Detroit Pistons
2011 Stats: 35.9 minutes 8.6ppg, 7.9rpg
Nikola is a solid, if unspectacular center for Detroit who has plenty of room in his offensive and defensive game to improve. After the excitement that surrounded the potential for the Dwight Howard era in Detroit ultimately morphed into disappointment, Nikola represents a much less exciting, but perhaps ultimately more productive young player.
Trending: If this article had come out earlier in the season, Nikola might have been ranked higher after a much better first half. He's cooled down significantly, only registering 1 double-double in February after having no less than 3 in any previous month.
7. Tristan Thompson - Forward - New Jersey Nets
2011 Stats: 34.8 minutes 8.9ppg, 9.5rpg
If Tristan can ever figure out how to convert the 4 offensive rebounds he averages a game into easy buckets, he's going to be a rock-star in this league. Though he's already one of the best rebounders in the NBA, Tristan may not have much more room to grow. Luckily for him, that doesn't matter in this discussion, but the ROY voters are often drawn to scoring numbers, and the rest of the players on this list all average double-digits per game.
Trending: Tristan's February was pretty much in line with his season stats.
The Emeka Okafor "3 Rookie of the Month" Division
Okafor's 2004–05 NBA season was a successful campaign as he coped well with the pressures of being the star rookie on an expansion franchise. Highlights of the season included recording 19 straight double-doubles from November 21 through January 1, and finishing seventh among Eastern Conference forwards in NBA All-Star Game fan balloting with 408,082 votes, by far the highest number garnered by any rookie in 2005. At the end of the season, Okafor beat out his friend and former college teammate and roommate, Chicago Bulls guard Ben Gordon, who each had 3 Rookie of the Month selections, to win the NBA Rookie of the Year Award.
6. Kenneth Faried - Forward - New York Knicks
2011 Stats: 32.8 minutes 12.2ppg, 8.4rpg, 2.7 EWA
With 3.3 more points and only one less board in 2 less minutes per game, Kenneth Faried is just a bit better rookie than Tristan Thompson. The SLOE-computer apparently agrees, giving him the Rookie of the Month award for the first 3 months of the season. He doesn't move up further in this list, because unlike Emeka's competition in 2005, his competition this year is STACKED.
Trending: Faried is definitely trending downwards having lost the Eastern Conference ROM award for the first time this season, and failing to register double-digit points in 7 of 13 February games.
The Andrew Wiggins "If he ever lives up to his potential, the rest of the league is SCREWED" Division
"On February 7, 2013, after an article in Sports Illustrated criticized Canadian basketball and Wiggins' work ethic, he responded later that day, scoring 57 points in a 111–59 win over Marietta College."
5. Isaiah Thomas - Guard - Seattle Supersonics
2011 Stats: 34.8 minutes 16.1ppg, 3.1rpb, 4.9apg, 3.5 EWA
Isaiah Thomas is athletic, quick, and can already score as a rookie. With unrealized A potentials inside and beyond-the-arc, he could be a headache for Western Conference backcourts for years to come. In other words, if he ever lives up to his potential, the rest of the league is SCREWED. That being said, he hasn't won a Rookie of the Month award, and is probably playing as well as his current ratings allow.
Trending: Isaiah had a middling February, where he averaged less than 15ppg and 4.8apg. He'll need an unbelievable end to the season to crack the top 3 of this list.
The Kyrie Irving "Kyrie Irving" Division
Irving won the 2012 NBA Rookie of the Year Award, receiving 117 of a possible 120 first-place votes. He was also the only unanimous selection to the NBA All-Rookie First Team. For the season, Irving averaged 18.5 points, 5.4 assists and shot 46.9 percent from the field, including 39.9 percent on three-pointers. Irving enjoys reading and keeping a journal. He also likes to sing, dance, and play the baritone sax.
4. Kyrie Irving - Guard - Milwaukee Bucks
2011 Stats: 33.7 minutes 19.7ppg, 3.6rpb, 3.1apg, 17.1 PER 4.0 EWA
We're at the point of the rankings where you could really make an argument for any of the remaining guys to go in an alternative order. I've been back and forth on this spot a few times, but who else could be in the Kyrie Irving division? Kyrie leads all rookies in points per game, is second in PER, and is the only Eastern Conference player not named Kenneth to win a Rookie of the Month award. That being said, his defensive game isn't there yet, and his PER is inflated by a 27.8% USG rating. These two factors move him behind the next players on our list. The margins are razor-thin.
Trending: Kyrie's February was right in line with his season line. He had two 39-point games and 3 single-digit scoring games. If he improves his consistency, he'll shoot up this list.
The Tim Duncan "All-Defense" Division
From the beginning, Duncan established himself as a quality player: in his second-ever road game, he grabbed 22 rebounds against opposing Chicago Bulls Hall of Fame power forward Dennis Rodman, a multiple rebounding champion and NBA Defensive Player of the Year. Duncan was voted to the 1998 NBA All-Star Game by coaches. Later, when Duncan played against opposing Houston Rockets Hall of Fame power forward Charles Barkley, Barkley was so impressed he said: "I have seen the future and he wears number 21." In his rookie season, Duncan lived up to expectations of being the number one draft pick, starting in all 82 regular-season games, averaging 21.1 points, 11.9 rebounds, 2.7 assists and 2.5 blocks per game, and earning All-NBA First Team honors. His defensive contributions ensured that he was elected to the NBA All-Defensive Second Team and was also named NBA Rookie of the Year, having won the NBA Rookie of the Month award every single month that season.
3. Kawhi Leonard - Forward - VanMemphis Grizzlies
2011 Stats: 33 minutes, 12.9ppg, 6.2rpg, 2.4apg, 2.2spg 16.0 PER 5.1 EWA
If the NBA worked like the NFL and had an Offensive and Defensive ROY, Leonard would win the defensive side hands down. His 2.2 steals per game are good for 6th in the league. He shoots 37.4% from deep, and has a 16.0 PER despite a usage percentage of just 18.4. That is offensive efficiency. He doesn't have gaudy numbers in any one category, and aside from steals - defensive stats are tough to gauge. Letting the game assist in this regard - Leonard has only won one Rookie of the Month in the West. The next two players on this list have the numbers, and have won the other 3.
Trending: Leonard's November was EASILY his best month. Aside from a ludicrous 9-steal affair in January, his numbers have been steadily trending downwards since. Unless both the top-2 players have terrible last thirds of the season, Leonard will merely be a very talented two-way player with the potential to be the next Ron Artest. He won't, though, be the Rookie of the Year.
The Michael Jordan "Contenders" Division
During his first season in the NBA, Jordan averaged 28.2 ppg on 51.5% shooting. He quickly became a fan favorite even in opposing arenas, and appeared on the cover of Sports Illustrated with the heading "A Star Is Born" just over a month into his professional career. Jordan was also voted in as an All-Star starter by the fans in his rookie season. Controversy arose before the All-Star game when word surfaced that several veteran players, led by Isiah Thomas, were upset by the amount of attention Jordan was receiving. This led to a so-called "freeze-out" on Jordan, where players refused to pass him the ball throughout the game. The controversy left Jordan relatively unaffected when he returned to regular season play, and he would go on to be voted Rookie of the Year.
2. Klay Thompson - Guard - Denver Nuggets
2011 Stats: 35.5 minutes, 19.3ppg, 4.5rpg, 2.2apg 16.4 PER 5.9 EWA
These two could be flipped, and if this had come out at the end of January they probably would have been. Klay does most things VERY well on the offensive end scoring almost 20 points per game while shooting .455/.938/.398. His 93.8% FT% is the best in the NBA. It's hard to discern his defensive impact, but given his ratings and +/- numbers, Klay is most likely slightly below average defensively. The potentials are there for him to be solid on that side of the ball, but not yet. He does lead all rookies in Estimated Wins Added, which could be enough to put him over the hill when all is said and done, but right now he's just the slightest hair below our favorite. And I don't want LoCo to accuse me of being a homer, either.
Trending: After a red-hot December/January that saw Klay garner two Rookie of the Months, and at one point scored double-digits in 19 straight. This race is going down to the wire.
1. Jimmy Butler - Guard - VanMemphis Grizzlies
2011 Stats: 34.6 minutes, 17.5ppg, 4.3rpg, 3.4apg 18.7 PER 5.1 EWA
He's the most efficient rookie scorer, has the highest PER, and won the most recent Rookie of the Month award in the Western Conference. He's shooting 49.5% from the field - a full 4% higher than Klay. He also averages a full assist more per game than does Thompson. Though not leading the league, he's still very good from the free throw line, though could use some work from beyond the arc. He has a much higher defensive potential than Thompson, and his currents are higher as well. His efficiency and defensive skills put him over Klay at this snapshot juncture.
Trending: His February won him the ROM with a 17.8pt/4.5rb/4.1ast line, if he has another two months like this - he can probably hold off Klay.
