PBSL Futures Report 2011
Posted: Thu Nov 17, 2016 9:35 am
The day before Training Camp the league is full of anticipation. Young teams wait on edge, hoping their prospects continue to grow. Older teams cringe, waiting to see the damage. With an eye on the future (and far too much free time on my hands), I present the PBSL Futures Report, which will become completely obsolete by the end of training camp.
Celtics
Players - Under 25: 2; Current < Future: 0
1st Round Picks: Their own 2013
Years over cap: 0
Last Forecast: ☁ ☁ ☀ ☀ ☀
5 Year Forecast:
☀ ☀ ☀ ☁
And just like that, the C's are back on top. They have built a team that should be a beast on the defensive end. I tend to think they will struggle offensively this year though, with Hawes and Wall still developing. We'll see what they do about Asik. The Landry deal may mean he'll be somewhere else next year.
Nets
Players - Under 25: 2; Current < Future: 2
1st Round Picks: Their own 2013
Years over cap: 1
Last Forecast: ☁ ☂ ☂ ☁ ☁
5 Year Forecast: ☀ ☁ ☁
Well, the Nets mini reset looks pretty decent, other than their obvious overload at point. I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt with this prediction. I think they are able to compete this year, with or without moving one of their points. I'm not sure what next year looks like for them. I assume they bring back Jameer but they will have to scrap together a PF again and Danny Green may no be ready to be that number three guy.
Heat
Players - Under 25: 4; Current < Future: 4
1st Round Picks: All of their own, Nets 2012, Celtics 2014
Last Forecast: ☀ ☀ ☀ ☁ ☁
5 Year Forecast: ☁ ☁ ☁ ☁ ☁
Years over cap: 3
The Heat did not get under the cap last year and are not guaranteed to get under it this year and Jefferson, Ibaka, and James are all expiring. Maybe they are looking to reset at the beginning of Lebron's 3rd contract, which would be a shame. I just don't see this working out. Personally, I wouldn't be surprised to see a Boozeresque Lebron departure in the offseason.
Knicks
Players - Under 25: 6; Current < Future: 5
1st Round Picks: All their own, 2012 Clippers, 2012 Mavs, 2012 Cavs, and 2012 Pistons
Years over cap: 0
Last Forecast: ☂ ☂ ☁ ☁ ☁
5 Year Forecast: ☂ ☂ ☂ ☁ ☁
No GM will spend more time staring at the 2012 draft file.
Magic
Players - Under 25: 1; Current < Future: 3
1st Round Picks: Their own 2012 and 2014
Years over cap: 1
5 Year Forecast: ☀ ☀ ☁ ☁ ☁
5 Year Forecast: ☀ ☁ ☁ ☁ ☁
This is a team in crisis. With long time GM Coltsguy hitting the road and every member of their roster expiring outside of Matthews, who can tell what the future will hold? They should be decent this year unless the trapists have their way.
76ers
Players - Under 25: 2; Current < Future: 6
1st Round Picks: Their own 2014 and Hornets 2013
Years over cap: 1
Last Forecast: ☀ ☀ ☀ ☁ ☁
5 Year Forecast: ☀ ☀ ☁ ☁ ☁
Ugh. The 76ers won it all last year and bring back the entire core, all of which are under 30, some of which are still significantly raw. It just makes you want to throw up. Good news is they can only keep this squad together for a couple more years before they have to blow it up for tax reasons. Is that good news?
Wizards
Players - Under 25: 12; Current < Future: 5
1st Round Picks: Their own 2013 and 2014
Years over cap: 0
Last Forecast:
5 Year Forecast: ☁ ☁ ☁ ☁ ☁
I'm not sure where this team is headed and I'm not sure their GM knows either. Maybe the plan is to build around Evans and Chandler but they are going about it in an interesting way.
Hawks
Players - Under 25: 5; Current < Future: 4
1st Round Picks: All their own
Years over cap: 3
Last Forecast: ☀ ☀ ☀ ☀
5 Year Forecast: ☀ ☀ ☀ ☀
I'm sticking with my forecast of no full rebuild for the Hawks. It looks like Wig could just be willing to foot a moderate tax bill with the 3+ repeater penalty but I really don't know. I wouldn't be surprised to see Gasol dealt this year.
Bulls
Players - Under 25: 4; Current < Future: 4
1st Round Picks: All their own and Nets 2014
Years over cap: 1
Last Forecast: ☂ ☁ ☁ ☀
5 Year Forecast: ☂ ☁ ☀
The good news is they have a new GM. The bad news is he's a new GM. A few questionable deals are going to prevent them from filling out a roster with enough to compensate for their young but promising guards/wings, which means the Bulls will be ready to compete when Hayward is ready to compete.
Cavs
Players - Under 25: 2; Current < Future: 3
1st Round Picks: Their own 2014 and Sixers 2012
Years over cap: 2
Last Forecast: ☀ ☀ ☁ ☁ ☁
5 Year Forecast: ☀ ☀ ☁ ☁
They now have a terrifying core of 3 players. The tax man may be an issue but they could probably ride it out another year. That Salmons deal hurts but I still like this team to do well the next couple of years.
Pistons
Players - Under 25: 3; Current < Future: 4
1st Round Picks: Their own 2013 and 2014 and Blazers 2012
Years over cap: 1
Last Forecast:
5 Year Forecast: ☁ ☁ ☁ ☁
DerMarr is a great fit next to Martin and Aldridge but I would have liked to see them try to fill out their roster rather than bring in one big fish. Lin looks good but he's just not ready. With Martin, DerMarr, and Pekovic expiring, things could get dicey if free agency doesn't go their way next offseason.
Pacers
Players - Under 25: 1; Current < Future: 3
1st Round Picks: Their own 2013 and 2014
Years over cap: 0
Last Forecast: ☁ ☁ ☀ ☁
5 Year Forecast: ☀ ☀ ☁ ☁ ☁
The Pacers long awaited return to the playoffs last year has changed my view of this team. They should be good this year and next although I'm curious to see how the ever-conservative GM handles having to blow up the cap to keep Moz. After that everyone expires so it is anyone's guess.
Bucks
Players - Under 25: 10; Current < Future: 7
1st Round Picks: All their own, 2012 Wizards, 2012 Pacers, 2013 Cavs, 2013 Jazz, 2013 Warriors
Years over cap: 0
last Forecast: ☂ ☂ ☁ ☁
5 Year Forecast: ☂ ☁ ☀ ☀
As Quail continues to shuffle and stockpile assets, his position for the future looks better and better. Honestly we may only be one year away from Quail making big moves to become a contender again. Think Z-Bo for Artest. Make no doubt about it the Bucks will be back sooner than their division foes want.
Hornets
Players - Under 25: 3; Current < Future: 3
1st Round Picks: Their own 2012 and 2014, 2012 Celtics, 2013 Sixers
Years over cap: 0
Last Forecast: ☀ ☂ ☂ ☁ ☁
5 Year Forecast: ☁ ☁ ☁ ☁ ☁
I could be wrong here but the Hornets are going to be bad for a long time. With a mediocre-at-best core of Bass, Oden, Roy, Korver, and Conley eating up almost the entire cap for the next 3-4 year, they won't contend and they won't get help from the draft or free agency. Luckily their GM is trading machine so he could still turn this around.
Raptors
Players - Under 25: 5; Current < Future: 3
1st Round Picks: All their own
Years over cap: 2
5 Year Forecast: ☁
5 Year Forecast: ☀ ☀ ☁ ☁ ☁
It took some time but the Raptors convinced me of their plan when they signed T-Max. I like the core of Parker, DeRozan, T-Mac, and Bynum a lot. They don't have a PF, they are a little weak on defense, and they are headed for 4 years over the cap next year but I think they should be able to make some noise before the thing blows up.
Celtics
Players - Under 25: 2; Current < Future: 0
1st Round Picks: Their own 2013
Years over cap: 0
Last Forecast: ☁ ☁ ☀ ☀ ☀
5 Year Forecast:
☀ ☀ ☀ ☁And just like that, the C's are back on top. They have built a team that should be a beast on the defensive end. I tend to think they will struggle offensively this year though, with Hawes and Wall still developing. We'll see what they do about Asik. The Landry deal may mean he'll be somewhere else next year.
Nets
Players - Under 25: 2; Current < Future: 2
1st Round Picks: Their own 2013
Years over cap: 1
Last Forecast: ☁ ☂ ☂ ☁ ☁
5 Year Forecast: ☀
☁ ☁Well, the Nets mini reset looks pretty decent, other than their obvious overload at point. I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt with this prediction. I think they are able to compete this year, with or without moving one of their points. I'm not sure what next year looks like for them. I assume they bring back Jameer but they will have to scrap together a PF again and Danny Green may no be ready to be that number three guy.
Heat
Players - Under 25: 4; Current < Future: 4
1st Round Picks: All of their own, Nets 2012, Celtics 2014
Last Forecast: ☀ ☀ ☀ ☁ ☁
5 Year Forecast: ☁ ☁ ☁ ☁ ☁
Years over cap: 3
The Heat did not get under the cap last year and are not guaranteed to get under it this year and Jefferson, Ibaka, and James are all expiring. Maybe they are looking to reset at the beginning of Lebron's 3rd contract, which would be a shame. I just don't see this working out. Personally, I wouldn't be surprised to see a Boozeresque Lebron departure in the offseason.
Knicks
Players - Under 25: 6; Current < Future: 5
1st Round Picks: All their own, 2012 Clippers, 2012 Mavs, 2012 Cavs, and 2012 Pistons
Years over cap: 0
Last Forecast: ☂ ☂ ☁ ☁ ☁
5 Year Forecast: ☂ ☂ ☂ ☁ ☁
No GM will spend more time staring at the 2012 draft file.
Magic
Players - Under 25: 1; Current < Future: 3
1st Round Picks: Their own 2012 and 2014
Years over cap: 1
5 Year Forecast: ☀ ☀ ☁ ☁ ☁
5 Year Forecast: ☀ ☁ ☁ ☁ ☁
This is a team in crisis. With long time GM Coltsguy hitting the road and every member of their roster expiring outside of Matthews, who can tell what the future will hold? They should be decent this year unless the trapists have their way.
76ers
Players - Under 25: 2; Current < Future: 6
1st Round Picks: Their own 2014 and Hornets 2013
Years over cap: 1
Last Forecast: ☀ ☀ ☀ ☁ ☁
5 Year Forecast: ☀ ☀ ☁ ☁ ☁
Ugh. The 76ers won it all last year and bring back the entire core, all of which are under 30, some of which are still significantly raw. It just makes you want to throw up. Good news is they can only keep this squad together for a couple more years before they have to blow it up for tax reasons. Is that good news?
Wizards
Players - Under 25: 12; Current < Future: 5
1st Round Picks: Their own 2013 and 2014
Years over cap: 0
Last Forecast:
5 Year Forecast: ☁ ☁ ☁ ☁ ☁
I'm not sure where this team is headed and I'm not sure their GM knows either. Maybe the plan is to build around Evans and Chandler but they are going about it in an interesting way.
Hawks
Players - Under 25: 5; Current < Future: 4
1st Round Picks: All their own
Years over cap: 3
Last Forecast: ☀
☀ ☀ ☀5 Year Forecast: ☀
☀ ☀ ☀I'm sticking with my forecast of no full rebuild for the Hawks. It looks like Wig could just be willing to foot a moderate tax bill with the 3+ repeater penalty but I really don't know. I wouldn't be surprised to see Gasol dealt this year.
Bulls
Players - Under 25: 4; Current < Future: 4
1st Round Picks: All their own and Nets 2014
Years over cap: 1
Last Forecast: ☂ ☁ ☁
☀5 Year Forecast: ☂ ☁
☀The good news is they have a new GM. The bad news is he's a new GM. A few questionable deals are going to prevent them from filling out a roster with enough to compensate for their young but promising guards/wings, which means the Bulls will be ready to compete when Hayward is ready to compete.
Cavs
Players - Under 25: 2; Current < Future: 3
1st Round Picks: Their own 2014 and Sixers 2012
Years over cap: 2
Last Forecast: ☀ ☀ ☁ ☁ ☁
5 Year Forecast: ☀ ☀
☁ ☁They now have a terrifying core of 3 players. The tax man may be an issue but they could probably ride it out another year. That Salmons deal hurts but I still like this team to do well the next couple of years.
Pistons
Players - Under 25: 3; Current < Future: 4
1st Round Picks: Their own 2013 and 2014 and Blazers 2012
Years over cap: 1
Last Forecast:
5 Year Forecast:
☁ ☁ ☁ ☁DerMarr is a great fit next to Martin and Aldridge but I would have liked to see them try to fill out their roster rather than bring in one big fish. Lin looks good but he's just not ready. With Martin, DerMarr, and Pekovic expiring, things could get dicey if free agency doesn't go their way next offseason.
Pacers
Players - Under 25: 1; Current < Future: 3
1st Round Picks: Their own 2013 and 2014
Years over cap: 0
Last Forecast: ☁ ☁
☀ ☁5 Year Forecast: ☀ ☀ ☁ ☁ ☁
The Pacers long awaited return to the playoffs last year has changed my view of this team. They should be good this year and next although I'm curious to see how the ever-conservative GM handles having to blow up the cap to keep Moz. After that everyone expires so it is anyone's guess.
Bucks
Players - Under 25: 10; Current < Future: 7
1st Round Picks: All their own, 2012 Wizards, 2012 Pacers, 2013 Cavs, 2013 Jazz, 2013 Warriors
Years over cap: 0
last Forecast: ☂ ☂ ☁ ☁
5 Year Forecast: ☂ ☁
☀ ☀As Quail continues to shuffle and stockpile assets, his position for the future looks better and better. Honestly we may only be one year away from Quail making big moves to become a contender again. Think Z-Bo for Artest. Make no doubt about it the Bucks will be back sooner than their division foes want.
Hornets
Players - Under 25: 3; Current < Future: 3
1st Round Picks: Their own 2012 and 2014, 2012 Celtics, 2013 Sixers
Years over cap: 0
Last Forecast: ☀ ☂ ☂ ☁ ☁
5 Year Forecast: ☁ ☁ ☁ ☁ ☁
I could be wrong here but the Hornets are going to be bad for a long time. With a mediocre-at-best core of Bass, Oden, Roy, Korver, and Conley eating up almost the entire cap for the next 3-4 year, they won't contend and they won't get help from the draft or free agency. Luckily their GM is trading machine so he could still turn this around.
Raptors
Players - Under 25: 5; Current < Future: 3
1st Round Picks: All their own
Years over cap: 2
5 Year Forecast:
☁5 Year Forecast: ☀ ☀ ☁ ☁ ☁
It took some time but the Raptors convinced me of their plan when they signed T-Max. I like the core of Parker, DeRozan, T-Mac, and Bynum a lot. They don't have a PF, they are a little weak on defense, and they are headed for 4 years over the cap next year but I think they should be able to make some noise before the thing blows up.
