The 40/20 Club
Posted: Thu Mar 10, 2016 11:24 am
The great former Lakers and current Sixers coach Phil Jackson has a well-known Phil-osophy on how to identify the elite teams in the PBSL. According to Jackson, teams that win 40 games before they lose 20 are the teams most likely to compete for the championship each year. It’s an interesting theory, but is it true? Well, we went into the archives to test it.
This is a very fluid, debatable discussion because words like “elite” mean different things to different people. For the purpose of this article, I am going to make the assumption that elite teams win or contend for championships. So I went into each season from 1991 to 2006 and found the two teams who met in the finals. I looked at each team to see if they had won 40 games before losing 20. The results were very interesting:
So if we do the math, 87.5% of teams that won a championship have won 40 games before losing 20. A very interesting side note: the only two to not fit this bill were the Lakers and Sixers, coached by Phil Jackson himself! Only 31.25% of teams who lost in the finals won 40 before 20, but if we look at both teams each year, that’s still 59.4% that fit the criteria. So of all finalists, almost 60% fit Phil’s “elite” category.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at the teams this year. There are four teams who have already won 40 games and haven’t yet hit 20 losses, and there are three teams that still have the potential to do so. Let’s meet them and give brief analyses on their season so far:
THE ELITES
Boston Celtics (41-15): The Celtics have the best offense in the East, a top 10 defense, and a top 5 differential. Their backcourt is interesting, but it’s the two man wrecking crew of Steven Hunter and Carlos Boozer that really powers this team. Could this be the year that the Celtics write their name in the history books again?
Denver Nuggets (42-15): This has been a long time coming for GM group TheSyndicate. After spending a few years accumulating top talent and struggling in the playoffs, they seem poised to win the division for the first time. They’ve got a great defense and a balanced scoring load; will that be enough to win them the West?
Utah Jazz (42-16): The Jazz are an enigma. Some years they look terrible considering their roster, and some years they light the world on fire. This year appears to be the latter, as they’ve pulled within a half game of the Division lead behind a top 5 defense. Will Tim Duncan heal up in time to lead them to the finals?
Sacramento Kings (49-10): By far the best team in the league recordwise, the Kings are looking to repeat with another title (last year was also a 40/20 year for them). Behind one of the best players in the league, they’re unsurprisingly setting the league on fire. Will we see a repeat champion?
THE POTENTIAL ELITES
Milwaukee Bucks (38-18): This seemed like a formality until the Bucks stumbled, going 2-5 in their last seven games. Despite that, they still can make the 40/20 club with their dynamic wing duo of Stephen Jackson and Ron Artest. If they can win two before losing two, they’ll get in.
Minnesota Timberwolves (38-18): At one point this season, the Wolves were nowhere near this illustrious club, sitting at 22-14, needing to win three/fourths of their next 24 to come close. But a midseason trade for Stephon Marbury and Michael Olowokandi has put them in great position, winning 16 of their last 20. They need to win two more games before losing two to join the illustrious club.
Dallas Mavericks (39-19): The Mavs traded their best player away right before the deadline and still went 4-2 over their last six games. Richard Jefferson is no slouch, so they still have a great shot of making the 40/20 club if they can win their next game against the Timberwolves. Very interesting how one team could keep the other out of the club!
So there you have it. Four teams in, three teams banging on the door. Could one of these 7 teams win the title this year? If history is any indication, yes. Or it will be the Sixers. Either way, I can’t wait!
This is a very fluid, debatable discussion because words like “elite” mean different things to different people. For the purpose of this article, I am going to make the assumption that elite teams win or contend for championships. So I went into each season from 1991 to 2006 and found the two teams who met in the finals. I looked at each team to see if they had won 40 games before losing 20. The results were very interesting:
So if we do the math, 87.5% of teams that won a championship have won 40 games before losing 20. A very interesting side note: the only two to not fit this bill were the Lakers and Sixers, coached by Phil Jackson himself! Only 31.25% of teams who lost in the finals won 40 before 20, but if we look at both teams each year, that’s still 59.4% that fit the criteria. So of all finalists, almost 60% fit Phil’s “elite” category.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at the teams this year. There are four teams who have already won 40 games and haven’t yet hit 20 losses, and there are three teams that still have the potential to do so. Let’s meet them and give brief analyses on their season so far:
THE ELITES
Boston Celtics (41-15): The Celtics have the best offense in the East, a top 10 defense, and a top 5 differential. Their backcourt is interesting, but it’s the two man wrecking crew of Steven Hunter and Carlos Boozer that really powers this team. Could this be the year that the Celtics write their name in the history books again?
Denver Nuggets (42-15): This has been a long time coming for GM group TheSyndicate. After spending a few years accumulating top talent and struggling in the playoffs, they seem poised to win the division for the first time. They’ve got a great defense and a balanced scoring load; will that be enough to win them the West?
Utah Jazz (42-16): The Jazz are an enigma. Some years they look terrible considering their roster, and some years they light the world on fire. This year appears to be the latter, as they’ve pulled within a half game of the Division lead behind a top 5 defense. Will Tim Duncan heal up in time to lead them to the finals?
Sacramento Kings (49-10): By far the best team in the league recordwise, the Kings are looking to repeat with another title (last year was also a 40/20 year for them). Behind one of the best players in the league, they’re unsurprisingly setting the league on fire. Will we see a repeat champion?
THE POTENTIAL ELITES
Milwaukee Bucks (38-18): This seemed like a formality until the Bucks stumbled, going 2-5 in their last seven games. Despite that, they still can make the 40/20 club with their dynamic wing duo of Stephen Jackson and Ron Artest. If they can win two before losing two, they’ll get in.
Minnesota Timberwolves (38-18): At one point this season, the Wolves were nowhere near this illustrious club, sitting at 22-14, needing to win three/fourths of their next 24 to come close. But a midseason trade for Stephon Marbury and Michael Olowokandi has put them in great position, winning 16 of their last 20. They need to win two more games before losing two to join the illustrious club.
Dallas Mavericks (39-19): The Mavs traded their best player away right before the deadline and still went 4-2 over their last six games. Richard Jefferson is no slouch, so they still have a great shot of making the 40/20 club if they can win their next game against the Timberwolves. Very interesting how one team could keep the other out of the club!
So there you have it. Four teams in, three teams banging on the door. Could one of these 7 teams win the title this year? If history is any indication, yes. Or it will be the Sixers. Either way, I can’t wait!
