Bill Simmons's 1999 NBA Trade Value
Posted: Wed Feb 11, 2015 8:16 am
NBA Trade Value Rules
Salaries matter. Would you rather pay Eric Snow $5.2 million a year or Gary Payton $10.5 million?
Age matters. Would you rather have Zo for the next three seasons or KG for the next 12?
Contract length matters — a newish wrinkle in an era defined by shorter guarantees, swollen caps and forward-thinking GMs who hoard cap space like it’s Walter White’s crystal meth recipe.
Pretend the league passed the following rule: For 24 hours, any player can be traded without cap ramifications, but with luxury-tax and next-day-cap ramifications. If Team A tells Team B, “We’ll trade you Player X for Player Y,” would Team B make the deal?
Concentrate on degrees. For instance, a Tracy McGrady–Latrell Spreewell swap ain’t happening, but the Clippers would at least say, “Wow, T-Mac's available?” while Sacramento would say, “We can’t trade Tracy for someone who’s nine years older.” That counts in the big scheme of things.
This list runs in reverse order. If McGrady is no. 18, then players 1 through 17 are all players about whom Sactowns braintrust would either say, “We hate giving up Tracy, but let’s have a meeting ASAP,” or, “Done! Call this deal in!” And SAC wouldn’t trade him straight-up for any player listed above 18.
Salaries matter. Would you rather pay Eric Snow $5.2 million a year or Gary Payton $10.5 million?
Age matters. Would you rather have Zo for the next three seasons or KG for the next 12?
Contract length matters — a newish wrinkle in an era defined by shorter guarantees, swollen caps and forward-thinking GMs who hoard cap space like it’s Walter White’s crystal meth recipe.
Pretend the league passed the following rule: For 24 hours, any player can be traded without cap ramifications, but with luxury-tax and next-day-cap ramifications. If Team A tells Team B, “We’ll trade you Player X for Player Y,” would Team B make the deal?
Concentrate on degrees. For instance, a Tracy McGrady–Latrell Spreewell swap ain’t happening, but the Clippers would at least say, “Wow, T-Mac's available?” while Sacramento would say, “We can’t trade Tracy for someone who’s nine years older.” That counts in the big scheme of things.
This list runs in reverse order. If McGrady is no. 18, then players 1 through 17 are all players about whom Sactowns braintrust would either say, “We hate giving up Tracy, but let’s have a meeting ASAP,” or, “Done! Call this deal in!” And SAC wouldn’t trade him straight-up for any player listed above 18.
THE OLDER EXPIRING WING PLAYERS
22. Jim Jackson – SG - Heat – I put Jackson last of the bunch because he simply isn’t the defender the other 3 are. He also has the worst TS% of the bunch21. Steve Smith – SG – Jazz – He’s an expiring like the rest, but is also a year older and making an extra 600K. If this was a lifetime achievement list, I’d take Smith. But if I’m choosing between him or the next 2 guys I’ll take the latter 2.
20. Doug Christie – SF – Celtics - What happens when a gigantic homer writes an article? He includes guys from his team. Christie has started the season off on fire sporting a .642 TS% and a Defensive Efficiency of 82.6. Christie has never set the world on fire in terms of scoring but his defense has never been questioned.
19. Latrell Spreewell SG – Clippers – The opposite of Christie, Spree is scoring at an insane level and always has. He’s also a terrific defender and is pulling down over 9 boards a game. It will be interesting to see where all 4 of these guys end up next year.
WAIT, I THOUGHT HE REGRESSED
18. Vince Carter – SG – Grizzlies – I almost didn’t add him to the list, because of a hit to his potential this past training camp. Then I looked at the stats. He’s averaging more ppg on a few more shots. His 3pt% has been horrid to start and should pick up. He’s got 3 years left on a rookie deal, and I think he’ll be a top 10 scorer in this league for the foreseeable future.THE YOUNG(ER) WING PLAYERS ON MULTI-YEAR DEALS
17. Grant Hill – SF – Timberwolves – He’s 27 locked up for 3 years, and offensively does everything you’d want. Not the best defender but doesn’t kill you on that end. The only reason he’s not higher is his ceiling is not the same as some of the guys below him. The player he is now, is probably the best version of himself.16. Donyell Marshall –SF – Hawks – It pains me to write this, as my Celtics basically let Marshall walk for nothing. In their defense he barely averaged double figures for them in his last year and has gotten better in the 2 years since he left Boston. He’s young (26), under contract for 3 more years, and is excellent at everything aside from perimeter defense. I can’t believe I have him above Vinsanity, but at this point I think he just makes a team better.
15. Jalen Rose – SG – Bucks – Has a lot of the same traits as Marshall, same draft class, both struggled at first and have just continuously improved. Only difference is the Bucks never wavered in their faith in Rose and matched his max in RFA. Donyell can play SF and PF effectively and maybe even spot mins at the 2, Rose can play 1-2-3 all effectively giving him the slight edge for me.
14. Eddie Jones – SF - Cavs – I originally had him lower than the previous two due to his age. But then I looked at his stats. He scores quite a bit better, and just has much better defensive ratings. This still isn’t high enough considering who the Cavs gave up (we’ll see him later on this list) to get him.
13. Ray Allen – SG – Spurs - Allen is only 2 years younger than Marshall and Rose, but is still on his rookie contract. He already has 100 3pt rating, great scoring ratings and good defensive ratings with A and B potential. I’d gladly take him out of these 5.
THE RAPTORS SECTION
12. Chauncey Billups – PG – Raptors – The PG of the future. He’s not there yet (at least in a small sample size this season), but the ratings are there, the potential is there, and he’s got the athleticism to be an amazing pure PG. Add that to the fact he’s on a rookie contract for two more years and you should see why I have him so high on this list. He’s got some great young talent around him too, we can all only hope Sound somehow screws this up.11. Michael Finley – SG – Raptors – Speaking of great young talent around Billups, Finley is already in his prime. He’s a fantastic scorer with great potential in every scoring category to boot. His defense is improving and will only get better. He doesn’t rebound well, but should be as pure a scorer as we’ll see in a while. He’s only 26 and locked up long-term…like I said please let Sound screw this up.
THE OLD BEST PURE PG IN THE LEAGUE
10. Gary Payton - PG - Heat – he’s 31 the oldest player yet to appear on the list. And I had to throw the word pure in his title, because well there’s a certain player that may or may not be a Point Guard that’s going to be on this list below him. But he’s still a tenacious defender, ridiculously quick, and is averaging 25 ppg and 9.4 apg. The only downside is he will be 35 years old and making 15 million dollars at some point during this contract, but now is not the time to worry about that.THIS IS WHERE IT GETS INTERESTING
Everyone else on this list, I would be completely shocked if they were ever traded. These guys are either extremely talented, young, or both.9. Kobe Bryant – SG – Bulls - Again small sample size but Kobe Bean Bryant is averaging 31 points a game and is in the final year of his rookie contract. The 31ppg is a bit deceiving there is literally nobody else on the Bulls who can score. Mike Bibby is scoring by volume, but his percentages are bad, Kobe is option 1, 2, and 3 a position he probably enjoys.
8. Chris Webber – PF – Timberwolves - One of the best big men in the league, he’s only 26 and ratings wise cannot get much better in key areas of inside scoring & post defense. Could improve upon his rebounding slightly and his shot blocking ability as well. Would like to see a little more scoring out of him, but currently is averaging just a hair under 31 mpg.
7. Alonzo Mourning – C – Celtics - Another homer pick, legacy pick, call it what you want to call it. The impact Mourning has on the defensive side of the basketball is hard to measure. He was the scoring champion last year (albeit with no help) and is consistently at the top of the list in FG%. He is 29 and only under contract for 2 more years, but with the right talent I think he can make a team an instant contender.
6. Tracy McGrady – SG – Kings - Only 20 years old, still under a rookie contract, and putting up 20 points and 7 rebounds from the Shooting Guard position. He’s got solid defensive ratings with plenty of room to grow. He turns the ball over a little too much in comparison to the assists that he gets, but a 6-8 SG who can defend and score at will…yeah I like his future.
5. Anfernee Hardaway – PG (maybe?) – Mavericks - Let’s see insane measurables for a PG? Check. 96 INS rating to go along with 95 Handles? Check. Under contract for 3 more years through his prime? Check. Currently averaging 32 points, 7 rebounds, 8 assists, 2 steals, AND 58% FG??? Holy Hell who are these next 4 guys on this list. How could anyone possibly hold more value?
4. Tim Duncan – PF – Jazz - Duncan is currently 10th in scoring, 2nd in rebounding, and leading the league in blocks. Oh have I mentioned he’s only 23, and making just 5.3 million over the next 2 years, that his potential is still through the roof in the 5 key areas for a big man, and is still developing a jump shot that could an area to his game making him even more unstoppable? The Jazz have had the best player in the league before (Jordan) can they win a title this time around with Duncan?
3. Kevin Garnett – PF – Lakers - When I started writing this I really thought I’d have him #1. But my hatred for the Lakers and respect for #1 & #2 were too strong. He’s still by no means a finished product in terms of growing, but is still putting up 22 and 8 while providing solid defense in both the post and perimeter. He and Duncan should really be 3 and 3A, but I'm giving KG the edge due to his potential and versatility.
2. Shaquille O’Neal – C – Rockets - Has the highest possible rating in 7 areas. Shaq is a force and if only he has had a little more success in this league he could be #1. But for whatever reason it just hasn’t been there. He’s never been past the 2nd round of the playoffs and was just part of back to back 30 win seasons. He’s 27 and on an expiring contract sure to fetch the super max again. But even as an expiring he is the 2nd most valuable asset in the league.
1. Shawn Kemp – PF – Warriors - This should come as no surprise, the 7 time MVP (just think about that for a second), is 29 years old and just signed the richest deal in SLOE history. I wouldn’t care if it was for 10 years and I was stuck with him until he is 40. He is an absolute monster, sometimes playing as an over-powering menace. As with everyone in this list it’s a small sample size for this year and his scoring and rebounding are down (although his FG% is up). But it doesn’t matter opposing coaches get desperate when matching up with him in the playoffs, trying any and everything to counterbalance Kemp. Duncan and KG may catch up to him in a few years, Penny is comparable in terms of no PG is on his level, but Kemp is on an island alone, he is the best.
