2004 Contenders/Pretenders (Eastern Conference)
Posted: Mon Nov 30, 2015 2:23 pm
We'll start by narrowing the list to teams that are in the hunt for a playoff spot. In the East, that means the Wizards, Hawks, Raptors, Bulls, Celtics, 76ers, Magic, Hornets, and Bucks (who are 3.5 games out of the playoffs but have a shot). It's pretty obvious that a team not in the hunt isn't even a pretender - just bad. So, in reverse order of record, coming into the sim, how do these teams stack up?
BUCKS - In an interesting spot. Manu Ginobili is probably in his prime, Artest is just about there, but Amare isn't there yet. The Bucks seem to be vacillating as to whether they want to jump in with both feet now or build for the future (though in fairness, I think they were in "build for the future" mode before training camp wreaked havoc with their younger up-and-comers this past off-season). A team that's not sure what it is - and right now, on the outside of the playoff picture - is a definite pretender.
HORNETS - Showed they're trying to compete now by bringing in the inimitable Shawn Kemp, and are 14-6 since, with 15 of those 20 on the road and including wins over the Kings and Mavericks. They will have to pony up a ton of money this off-season to keep Battier, Jefferson, and Randolph, but they are clearly making a Kemp-powered push now. This team should scare people and is a contender this season.
MAGIC - Like the Hornets, made a big splash in picking up a sim league legend in Penny Hardaway. Unlike the Hornets, have not caught fire, going just 7-7 since adding him. While I think they'll eventually figure it out, and the return of Mike Miller will help, the thing that scares me about the Magic is that their only high-grade big man is a soft Keith Van Horn - the top teams in the conference have deep, strong big man rotations and the Magic don't. For that reason, I have to dub them a pretender until they prove otherwise.
76ERS - They're not yet where GM Ballsohard wants them to be, but they're already competing for a playoff spot, which is a good sign. The concern I have is offense - I know Ballsohard prefers defensively-oriented squads, but I have always been of the belief that you need at least two star offensive players to really compete for a title and right now the 76ers have only one - Baron Davis. They're building up a young core, but they're still a pretender because they're not fully baked yet.
CELTICS - One of the most balanced teams in the league, with 6 starters averaging double figures, and they have talent and depth at all positions. However, I think they're one more year away before Boozer and Salmons have blossomed enough to put them over the top... this is a team that has only one win over the Raptors, Hawks, and Wizards combined this season, and most of the losses have been blowouts. The Celtics can probably win a first round series, but I don't see them quite having the horsepower this year to make it to the Finals, let alone win the whole thing, which puts them into pretender status. Next season, however, look out.
BULLS - This is a tough call. Miller, Bibby, Bryant, and especially Thomas and Jackson are all in their primes, and on sheer talent, this team should be a contender. Gameplanning in the playoffs worries me a bit, though. With Thomas and Bryant both up for monster contracts in UFA, and a huge tax bill this season, this could be the final run for this incarnation of the Bulls, and I suspect they have at least a chance to win it all. Call them a contender due to their raw talent, but I think they're one most on the borderline between contender and pretender.
RAPTORS - The core of Brand, Finley, and Billups may not be as scary without Tom Gugliotta around, but they've been to the Finals the past two seasons and won a title. Definitely contenders until someone from the East knocks them out early. Maybe you think age is starting to get to them, but they're still probably going to kick your butt and laugh at you while doing it.
HAWKS - Since the Penny trade, the Hawks are 11-4, so their winning percentage hasn't really dropped off much since moving him. Yes, the Hawks are not as scary as they were three years ago, and yes, the Raptors have beaten them without homecourt the past two years in the Conference Finals... but on the other hand, they've been at least as far as Game 6 of the Conference Finals each of the past four seasons. Without Penny, they'll have to hope McDyess can carry them. I'll call them contenders because I know I'd be accused of attempting to reverse-curse if not, but they're no longer the favorites, and you have to wonder the Raptors have their number.
WIZARDS - With an enormous starting 5 that harks back to the 1991 Hawks, the Wizards are the odds-on favorite to win the East. They're big, they're deep, and they're another team that is going to have to pony up huge money to keep the team together this offseason. Best believe they are trying to take a title shot. Contenders for sure, and favorites to come out of the East.
BUCKS - In an interesting spot. Manu Ginobili is probably in his prime, Artest is just about there, but Amare isn't there yet. The Bucks seem to be vacillating as to whether they want to jump in with both feet now or build for the future (though in fairness, I think they were in "build for the future" mode before training camp wreaked havoc with their younger up-and-comers this past off-season). A team that's not sure what it is - and right now, on the outside of the playoff picture - is a definite pretender.
HORNETS - Showed they're trying to compete now by bringing in the inimitable Shawn Kemp, and are 14-6 since, with 15 of those 20 on the road and including wins over the Kings and Mavericks. They will have to pony up a ton of money this off-season to keep Battier, Jefferson, and Randolph, but they are clearly making a Kemp-powered push now. This team should scare people and is a contender this season.
MAGIC - Like the Hornets, made a big splash in picking up a sim league legend in Penny Hardaway. Unlike the Hornets, have not caught fire, going just 7-7 since adding him. While I think they'll eventually figure it out, and the return of Mike Miller will help, the thing that scares me about the Magic is that their only high-grade big man is a soft Keith Van Horn - the top teams in the conference have deep, strong big man rotations and the Magic don't. For that reason, I have to dub them a pretender until they prove otherwise.
76ERS - They're not yet where GM Ballsohard wants them to be, but they're already competing for a playoff spot, which is a good sign. The concern I have is offense - I know Ballsohard prefers defensively-oriented squads, but I have always been of the belief that you need at least two star offensive players to really compete for a title and right now the 76ers have only one - Baron Davis. They're building up a young core, but they're still a pretender because they're not fully baked yet.
CELTICS - One of the most balanced teams in the league, with 6 starters averaging double figures, and they have talent and depth at all positions. However, I think they're one more year away before Boozer and Salmons have blossomed enough to put them over the top... this is a team that has only one win over the Raptors, Hawks, and Wizards combined this season, and most of the losses have been blowouts. The Celtics can probably win a first round series, but I don't see them quite having the horsepower this year to make it to the Finals, let alone win the whole thing, which puts them into pretender status. Next season, however, look out.
BULLS - This is a tough call. Miller, Bibby, Bryant, and especially Thomas and Jackson are all in their primes, and on sheer talent, this team should be a contender. Gameplanning in the playoffs worries me a bit, though. With Thomas and Bryant both up for monster contracts in UFA, and a huge tax bill this season, this could be the final run for this incarnation of the Bulls, and I suspect they have at least a chance to win it all. Call them a contender due to their raw talent, but I think they're one most on the borderline between contender and pretender.
RAPTORS - The core of Brand, Finley, and Billups may not be as scary without Tom Gugliotta around, but they've been to the Finals the past two seasons and won a title. Definitely contenders until someone from the East knocks them out early. Maybe you think age is starting to get to them, but they're still probably going to kick your butt and laugh at you while doing it.
HAWKS - Since the Penny trade, the Hawks are 11-4, so their winning percentage hasn't really dropped off much since moving him. Yes, the Hawks are not as scary as they were three years ago, and yes, the Raptors have beaten them without homecourt the past two years in the Conference Finals... but on the other hand, they've been at least as far as Game 6 of the Conference Finals each of the past four seasons. Without Penny, they'll have to hope McDyess can carry them. I'll call them contenders because I know I'd be accused of attempting to reverse-curse if not, but they're no longer the favorites, and you have to wonder the Raptors have their number.
WIZARDS - With an enormous starting 5 that harks back to the 1991 Hawks, the Wizards are the odds-on favorite to win the East. They're big, they're deep, and they're another team that is going to have to pony up huge money to keep the team together this offseason. Best believe they are trying to take a title shot. Contenders for sure, and favorites to come out of the East.