#SLOE: People's Basketball Sim League

Some close races for the final playoff spot coming down to the wire.
Which teams will claim the 8 spot in each division?
How will they close the season to secure the spot?
Which wins will be pivotal in separating from the competition?


Rules: 1 point if you give thoughtful answers, which I will award after the timer ends for responses. The timer ends for responses at the moment the corresponding week's Sim is run.

Note: Use approximately 5 sentences as your bare minimum for 1 point. If you write 3 long, complex sentences, you'll still get a point. If you write 5, 3 word sentences, you will not get a point. Don't @ me.

Due: Sim 11 deadline.

Lakers and Mavericks

I think both of their GMs are active enough and their teams are talented enough to squeeze in for the last spots. Both of their teams also have easier schedules to finish the season. I think they will rack up wins against the bottom-feeder teams like Minnesota, Charlotte, Cleveland, Utah, Orlando (and Toronto). Those wins will be the most important to separate them from the other teams.

Which teams will claim the 8 spot in each division?
Los Angeles Lakers and Memphis Grizzlies

How will they close the season to secure the spot?
Lakers beat Cavs, Jazz, and Magic in the final sim to wrap it up. The Grizzlies beat a resting Bulls, Wizards, and Timberwolves in the final sim to clinch.

Which wins will be pivotal in separating from the competition?
It will come down to the final game for both so Magic for the Lakers and Timberwolves for the Grizzlies.

The Lakers have 9 games left in the last 20. 4 of those are at home against bad teams. 5 on the road split between bad and good teams. I predict the Lakers finish this stretch 5-4 or 6-3 and hold onto that 8th spot. Their competition is the hawks who are sitting a half game back. They however have a very tough schedule that features the pistons 3 times. That's brutal for anyone to deal with....BUT wait, there's more, hang onto your seat baby, cuz this one's a screamer #EasterEgg... The hawks also play the suns and Celtics. So this is why my nod are to the Lakers.

The Omega conference is a little more tough to predict as the Mavs depth chart suggests he is all in on securing the 8th spot. The grizz are just running same as their plan is long term. I'm giving the edge to the 7-5 finishing Mavs based on the grizz schedule which includes a late game road trip as well as playing the bulls twice.


Not sure if the final question is based on the 8th seeds but I don't think any wins from those 4 teams in the race will be pivotal. I think all 4 have some games they are going to lose without a doubt. And I think both doors will be locked up by a half game to 1 game but I doubt anything more than that. None of the 4 teams I listed play each other to finish the schedule.

Lakers and Mavericks

I think the Lakers have an easier road since the Hawks have to play the Pistons (3), Celtics, Suns, Kings, and Trailblazers in their last 10 games. That's a pretty brutal stretch for the hawks. Maybe they come away with one victory in that group but this race surely seems like it's the Lakers to lose.

Mavericks also seem to have an easier schedule than the Grizzlies so they could likely jump them in these last two sims. Their team also seems to have gotten healthy at the right time so that could be a big boost for them. I do see this 8 seed race being closer than the Alpha conference since neither of their schedules are anywhere near as tough as the Hawks have it

Which teams will claim the 8 spot in each division?
It isn't always right, but usually differential is a decent enough predictor at this stage of the season. I'll go with Lakers and Grizzlies because they're both the 8th best differential in their conferences, they both have solid enough looking teams that I predicted them to be better going into the season, and I don't want to dig deeper by looking at strength of schedule or anything like that.

How will they close the season to secure the spot?
I think the Grizz only really have the Mavs to compete with, and with the Mavs ducking under the tax, I'm guessing they value having another lotto pick more than they value sneaking into that 8th spot, so the Mavs might not be fighting as hard for that last spot. Lakers have to stay ahead of both the Hawks and the Jazz, but without his own pick, I think Roberto will gameplan harder.

Which wins will be pivotal in separating from the competition?
Every win counts, but if any of the teams vying for that spot face each other, those are the most important games.

garbageman wrote: Wed Oct 30, 2024 1:34 pm Which teams will claim the 8 spot in each division?
It isn't always right, but usually differential is a decent enough predictor at this stage of the season. I'll go with Lakers and Grizzlies because they're both the 8th best differential in their conferences, they both have solid enough looking teams that I predicted them to be better going into the season, and I don't want to dig deeper by looking at strength of schedule or anything like that.

How will they close the season to secure the spot?
I think the Grizz only really have the Mavs to compete with, and with the Mavs ducking under the tax, I'm guessing they value having another lotto pick more than they value sneaking into that 8th spot, so the Mavs might not be fighting as hard for that last spot. Lakers have to stay ahead of both the Hawks and the Jazz, but without his own pick, I think Roberto will gameplan harder.

Which wins will be pivotal in separating from the competition?
Every win counts, but if any of the teams vying for that spot face each other, those are the most important games.

The Mavs did not make it under the tax. DJ trade ultimately kept them above after having an injury and minimal players.

Black Superman wrote: Wed Oct 30, 2024 2:32 pm

garbageman wrote: Wed Oct 30, 2024 1:34 pm Which teams will claim the 8 spot in each division?
It isn't always right, but usually differential is a decent enough predictor at this stage of the season. I'll go with Lakers and Grizzlies because they're both the 8th best differential in their conferences, they both have solid enough looking teams that I predicted them to be better going into the season, and I don't want to dig deeper by looking at strength of schedule or anything like that.

How will they close the season to secure the spot?
I think the Grizz only really have the Mavs to compete with, and with the Mavs ducking under the tax, I'm guessing they value having another lotto pick more than they value sneaking into that 8th spot, so the Mavs might not be fighting as hard for that last spot. Lakers have to stay ahead of both the Hawks and the Jazz, but without his own pick, I think Roberto will gameplan harder.

Which wins will be pivotal in separating from the competition?
Every win counts, but if any of the teams vying for that spot face each other, those are the most important games.

The Mavs did not make it under the tax. DJ trade ultimately kept them above after having an injury and minimal players.

My mistake. It should read "I think the Grizz only really have the Mavs to compete with, and with the Mavs trying to duck under the tax, I'm guessing they value having another lotto pick more than they value sneaking into that 8th spot, so the Mavs might not be fighting as hard for that last spot."

Sorry to anyone for any confusion!

I really wish I could talk about the Jazz in this conversation.
They're a game and a half out of the 8 spot while running robo/auto pilot.
Their schedule is almost as brutal as the Hawks, which was already mentioned.
Have to go with the Lakers in the Alpha.

The Omega conversation is much more open to debate.
I especially was interested to hear people's take on these 2 teams that seem to have great talent and bright futures.
I took the Grizzlies in sim vegas, and I think I like their build more than I like the Mavs, but it will not work for them based on the remaining schedule.
It will be interesting to see the Booger effect down the stretch.
This is what makes the difference for me
Grizz go 6-5 down the stretch
Mavs go 7-5 to tie the records at 38-44
If I understand it correctly, the Mavs will get in with the better conference record.
I'm taking for granted that they lose to the Bulls, Celtics, and my Heat.
Also for granted, they beat Rockets, Cats, Raptors, and sweep the 2 games against the Wolves.
That means they need 2 out of 4 games:
at Atl in the Bruhdge Match
at the aforementioned Utah Jazz
home against the Nuggets
and a tough road game at the Spurs, where I'm sure Eazy P would love to play spoiler and knock them out of the playoffs.
In the end, I think they fet it done and the Wizards and the Bulls are the bane of the Grizz.
So much for my 3-peat in sim vegas.

Lakers in Alpha. Whatever good fortune befell the Hawks early in the season seems to have found a resounding end. Lakers will beat out the Hawks by staying the course.

Grizzlies will hold on against the Mavericks. Mavs have completely put a pin in this season, and what's left of the Grizzlies to finish the year has better legs than the Mavs. Kings don't fall, Mavs don't climb, things remain the same.

I'm not sure there is anything pivotal left for either conference to run their way into the 8th seed. I would be surprised if anyone made the push for the 8th seed, because no team seems positioned to make it out of the first round and might prefer a better rank in the draft than the 8th seed.

garbageman wrote: Wed Oct 30, 2024 3:24 pm

Black Superman wrote: Wed Oct 30, 2024 2:32 pm

garbageman wrote: Wed Oct 30, 2024 1:34 pm Which teams will claim the 8 spot in each division?
It isn't always right, but usually differential is a decent enough predictor at this stage of the season. I'll go with Lakers and Grizzlies because they're both the 8th best differential in their conferences, they both have solid enough looking teams that I predicted them to be better going into the season, and I don't want to dig deeper by looking at strength of schedule or anything like that.

How will they close the season to secure the spot?
I think the Grizz only really have the Mavs to compete with, and with the Mavs ducking under the tax, I'm guessing they value having another lotto pick more than they value sneaking into that 8th spot, so the Mavs might not be fighting as hard for that last spot. Lakers have to stay ahead of both the Hawks and the Jazz, but without his own pick, I think Roberto will gameplan harder.

Which wins will be pivotal in separating from the competition?
Every win counts, but if any of the teams vying for that spot face each other, those are the most important games.

The Mavs did not make it under the tax. DJ trade ultimately kept them above after having an injury and minimal players.

My mistake. It should read "I think the Grizz only really have the Mavs to compete with, and with the Mavs trying to duck under the tax, I'm guessing they value having another lotto pick more than they value sneaking into that 8th spot, so the Mavs might not be fighting as hard for that last spot."

Sorry to anyone for any confusion!

No, I wanted under the tax, but the odds of losing 2 players to injury in two sims seemed super unlikely, so I gambled and lost.