J2's RFA Preview Returns!
Posted: Fri Aug 21, 2015 4:17 am
Yeah, it's been a while. Anyway, as we all await the final sim of the regular season, I figure it'd be nice to give some food for thought in the meantime. So, here's an early look at the 2003 RFA period! 1999, in retrospect, is one of the stronger drafts we've had. With such a strong RFA class on the horizon, who are the must-have talents out there...and can you have them?
Shawn Marion
The next-gen Cedric Ceballos, Marion is without a doubt one of the top 3's in the game today. Athletic as hell (76 QKN, 87 STR, 60 JMP, 97 STA) and already a dominant rebounder at Small Forward (70 in ORB, 86 in DRB), the 24-year-old is also developing into a versatile defensive stud (69 in PSD, 59 in PRD, 61 in STL, 60 in BLK). In fact, versatility is the name of his game, as there's very little (like handling the ball) that Marion can't do at least adequately. One must wonder if he'll ever truly make his mark offensively though, because despite being well-rounded (47 INS, 57 JPS, 61 3PS), the chances for improvement are slim (C's in INS & JPS, B in 3PS). Given that he's only 6'7" (thus making SG a better choice for his secondary position as opposed to PF), you'd ideally want a bit more scoring out of your swingman, and Shawn may not provide that. Still, his sheer defensive/rebounding potential (A's in DRB & STL, B's in ORB, PSD, and PRD, a C in BLK) and outstanding athleticism makes him an attractive prospect, and 15 ppg's just good enough to make throwing max money at a defensive stopper justifiable.
Baron Davis
Drafted No. 1 in '99, Baron was on his way to becoming one of the strangest busts ever, posting mediocre numbers despite his incredible ratings and potential. However, with RFA on the horizon, Baron Davis has had a breakout season scoring-wise, averaging 17 ppg, 2.2 spg, and posting a PER of 23, as well as improving his efficiency from long range (.418 3P%). How...convenient. To be quite honest, Baron has everything it takes to become a Top 3 PG in the league. Height? 6'3". Shooting? 66 INS (A potential), 66 JPS (B potential), 72 3PS (A potential). Facilitating? 81 HND (A potential) and 71 PAS (A potential). Defense? 78 PRD (A potential...noticing a trend?) and 95 STL (I'm sure you can guess his potential there). Athleticism? 89 QKN, 54 STR, 68 JMP, 100 STA. At 24, he might just be coming into his own, which is an absolutely terrifying thought. Baron's as certain a max-level player as you can get, sketchy production be damned.
Steve Francis
The opposite of Baron, Stevie Franchise was on his way to a certain 5-year max...and then, inexplicably, he slacked off during the offseason. Whereas he once had potential as an all-around PG, he now looks suspiciously like a taller Allen Iverson, and ask Inner how he felt about that max. With 66 INS (and B potential), Steve can definitely finish, but struggles to stretch the floor (42 JPS, 57 3PS, C potential in both), and is woefully average when it comes to spreading the ball around (51 HND, 56 PAS, C potential in both). Now don't get me wrong, Stevie's still a very solid player...but I don't think he's the "Franchise" anymore. 26 is usually when a guy comes into his own, not drops off. He's worth close to the max, but a full one? Ehh...
Ron Artest
If Shawn Marion was a true swingman, he'd be Ron Artest. Apparently Ron didn't appreciate being booted out of Charlotte, so he put some work in during the offseason. Already a premier wing defender (78 PRD and 88 STL, with A potential in both), Ron's developed a nice outside shot (71 3PS with A potential) and strong post game on both ends (63 INS with A potential and 64 PSD with B potential). Despite fairly run-of-the-mill athleticism (70 QKN, 68 STR, 65 JMP, 96 STA), Ron's 19 ppg suggests that he just might be turning into the second coming of Stacey Augmon - a scoring puch to go along with fearsome defense. At just 23, maxing him's a no-brainer.
Manu Ginobili
Less certain is the slow-developing Argentinan, Manu Ginobili. After solid but fairly uninspiring numbers caused Portland to wave the white flag on him, Manu's picked it up a little in Milwaukee, but not that much to be honest. 15 ppg in just over 31 mpg's alright, but a 15.4 PER cements Manu as the very definition of an average wing scorer. What's strange is that when looking at him, he's incredibly well-rounded. 54 INS, 47 JPS, 64 3PS, 53 HND, 46 PAS, 60 PRD, 65 STL, 84 QKN, 53 STR, 70 JMP, 72 STA? Okay, that last one is pretty weak, but still. He's just young enough (25) to lay claim to being an unfinished product, but anyone paying him anything close to max money is gambling on potential alone. That's not a bad thing, given that he still shows promise (A in STL, B's in INS, JPS, 3PS, HND, PRD), but paying to firmly secure his services will not come without risk.
Richard "Rip" Hamilton
One the league's most lethal young scorers, hometown hero Rip Hamilton's the primary reason why the 76ers have regained a mesure of respectability. He's just 25, but his role as a player is clear: Score by any means necessary, from anywhere on the floor. If you have to be a one-dimensional player, this is how you do it. 71 INS (B potential), 95 JPS (A potential), 78 3PS (B potential). Everything else is average, save his elite-level speed (82 QKN), but when you can score that well, who really needs more? He's worthy of a max-level deal just off of scoring ability alone.
Elton Brand
Dominant since Day 1, Brand is arguably the best PF in the game, given how he's able to produce at such a high level despite his height (6'8"). Part of this is due to his ungodly athleticism (54 QKN, 95 STR, 85 JMP, 100 STA), but most of it is just the fact that he's just that damn good (81 INS, 81 ORB, 64 DRB, 63 PSD, 75 BLK), and at only 24, will only get better (A potential in INS & ORB, B in DRB, PSD, and BLK). He hasn't posted a PER of under 22 yet, marking him as a true franchise player. I can't say more because there's not much left to be said. Brand's production speaks for itself.
Andre Miller
After just one season with the Hawks, Miller was forced into one of the worst situations possible - having to fill the shoes of a legend in Dallas. Even though he hasn't filled the scoring void (that's Jamison's job), he's done the impossible and performed better (!) than Penny ever did at spreading the ball around. That's worth your money, right? Not so fast. While Dre has solidified himself as a top-tier Dish-n-D PG (74 HND, 85 PAS, 78 PRD, 76 STL), his scoring output is shockingly lacking. 80 JPS and 69 INS for a PG should get you more than 12.7 ppg. And while he's proven that he can captain a Finals-bound team, the fact that he's 27 and already in his prime means that he's a good buy for serious playoff contenders only. If you're not looking to make a serious run within the next two years, you're taking a huge risk. If you are, however, know that you're getting one of the best distributors this side of Kidd or Van Exel. Just make sure you have a scorer or two to put next to him, okay?
Andrei Kirilenko
The first of three RFAs in this class with a ring (!), Kirillenko's stifling defense fit right in with the gameplan of the Lakers, which made his trade to Utah all the more shocking, even with his drop-off in the offseason. It's shocking because he really has little value outside of a defensive stopper, and thus meant way more to LA than anyone else. Though his athleticism for a 6'9" Forward (68 QKN, 80 STR, 70 JMP, 93 STA) is sublime, his offense (46 INS, 32 JPS, 31 3PS) is pitiful, which is only reinforced by the fact that he hasn't averaged more than 10 ppg yet. He's also below-average in efficiency, as 13.5 is his highest PER to date. Again, his value lies in his defense, but with only 49 PSD and 48 STL (C potential for both) as opposed to 62 PRD and 64 BLK (B potential), he seems to be a bit of a defensive tweener, able to guard both posts and wings capably, but not exceptionally or efficiently. Perhaps a speed boost could give him a shot to succeed as a Bruce Bowen-esque shutdown swingman. At 22, he has plenty of time to improve, but with D's and C's all over his potential, that's a bit of a longshot. I don't know what the base amount of money is to be considered "starter" money, but whatever it is, Kirilenko shouldn't be making it.
Corey Maggette
Raise your hand if you saw this one coming: After only one season with Atlanta (damn, looks like Wig gave up just as much talent as he brought in) and half a season with Minnesota, 23-year-old Corey Maggette has become a 25 ppg scorer for New Jersey. Wow. Right now he's doing it on the back of his unreal hops (100 JMP), but with B potential in both INS (66) and 3PS (67), it's not hard to imagine him developing the skills to compliment his springs. Unfortunately, outside of some rebounding skills (42 ORB, 56 DRB), he's extremely one-dimensional, moreso than Rip Hamilton, even. If he's not scoring, he's usually not worth having on the floor, but the chances of him not scoring are low. Unlike Hamilton, he lacks the elite speed (74 QKN) to offset being of average height (6'6") for the ever-growing swingman position, but that's a minor concern. 25 ppg at 23 years old is max money no matter what.
Jason Terry
After a strong playoff showing, the Jet was on his way to becoming the new face of Detroit Basketball, but a few question marks have now been raised. Terry sacrificed working on his shooting to improve other aspects of his game, and 61 HND, 50 PAS, 57 PRD, and 60 STL is solid, though not spectacular, for a PG. Even with that though, his scoring ability remains superb. 63 INS, 85 JPS, and 89 3PS are top-notch numbers. So what's the problem? Well, it seems as if outside of his shooting (B potential in INS, A in JPS & 3PS) and a couple of random areas (B in HND & STL), it seems as if his potential has been maxed out heading into his prime (Terry is 25). And at 6'2", scoring ability alone won't save him forever. The league is getting bigger (as more and more 6'3" and up PGs enter the league) and faster, and Terry's speed (81 QKN) is more of what you'd expect from one of the bigger/older PG's in this league, rather than one of it's younger stars. So despite averaging 20 ppg for 3 straight seasons, Terry might be one of those "almost-max" guys.
Lamar Odom
If you need proof that the league's changing, look no further than 6'10" swingman Lamar Odom. Yes, I said swingman. Actually, "everyman" might be a better word, because as one of the most versatile players in the league today, Lamar possesses raw athleticism unheard of for a man his size. With 78 QKN he can run with most guards, and With 91 STR he can bang in the post with any big. Problem is (like Robert Horry before him), he seems to be one of those guys who does all of the little things, but struggles with the big things, like scoring. 47 INS and 31 JPS is solidly unimpressive, and 67 3PS means that though he can stretch the floor, he won't be consistent while doing so. It's clear that his athleticism is the only thing allowing him to score now (14.5 ppg), and with C potential in all scoring areas other than 3PS (B potential there), will be the only thing allowing him to score for the rest of his career. But to be honest, that's not why you'd want him anyway. You'd want him for the little things, like the 5 apg, the 9.4 rpg, and the 52 PRD and 46 STL (both C potential) that allows him to give average defensive production out on the perimeter. Lamar's that guy you know isn't quite max money, but you give it to him anyway because there's nothing like a nice, shiny, expensive swiss-army knife.
Wally Szczerbiak
Though he's a far cry now from what Seattle thought they were getting when they drafted him, Wally Z's nonetheless carved out a niche for himself as a capable, efficient bench scorer, especially from long range (64 3PS). At 26, potential doesn't mean all that much anymore, which is good, since he doesn't have any anyway. He's also only a bench guy because his defense is weak (33 PSD, 24 PRD), only saved by his solid athleticism (62 QKN, 71 STR, 52 JMP, 92 STA), and unlike Maggette and Hamilton, he simply can't put the ball in the basket often enough to justify watching him get blown up on D for 30+ mpg. Still, as his .537 career TS% can attest to, he's a smart shooter, and a good guy to have coming off the bench. How much that's worth is anyone's guess.
Dedric Willoughby
Who? It's not often that you see the 29th overall pick make it through to RFA (and on the same team that drafted him, no less), but Dedric has done it. How? Well despite average scoring ability and potential, and being severely undersized for a SG (6'3"), Dedric is a very, very pesky defender. 72 PRD (B potential) and 81 STL (A potential) combined with 85 QKN means that the little pest can straight-up run a drive-by on bigger guards who don't notice him. When given near-starter minutes like last season, this means 2 spg is all but assured, and his 10 ppg in 2000-01 proves that he knows how to get his points in. Unfortunately, at 28, he won't be able to do what he does much longer. He's an intriguing low-cost pickup, but little more.
James Posey
The third Piston on this list, Posey's a 6'8" menace on the defensive end, especially for wings (78 PRD, 82 STL, A potential in both). But despite solid offensive ratings (41 INS, 62 JPS, 85 3PS), his scoring has been consistently average (12.7 career ppg), though he was cut down by an injury this season. A lack of speed (69 QKN) might be Posey's issue, as most SGs can blow right past him, and most SFs can match his height. This would work against him offensively as well, along with his sad 45 JMP rating. At 26, Posey pretty much is what he is at this point, and though he seems like a guy right on the cusp of being a prime-time player (his PER is steadily creeping up to the 20 mark), one might want to think carefully before bidding to avoid buyer's remorse later on (see: Russell, Bryon).
Jeff Foster
The second NBA champ in this RFA class, Foster has to feel a little bit of deja vu playing for the Magic, who drafted him, then traded him to Atlanta, where he backed up Big Ben and McDyess en route to back-to-back NBA titles. Foster's well-suited to the role of backup big, with 74 STR, 63 JMP, 63 PSD, 87 ORB, and 76 DRB. His rebounding in particular makes him quite useful in certain situations. But that's about the extent of his usefulness, because he's also immobile (19 QKN), inefficient (11.4 career PER), offensively challenged (38 INS, 27 JPS), and at 26, probably isn't getting much better in those aspects of the game. Only spend starter money on this guy if you know what you're doing. If you're a GM just looking to make a splash and gather talent, either look elsewhere or pay at your own risk.
Todd MacCulloch
He's still around? Huh. Guess you really can't teach height. A 7-footer with impressive strength (85 STR), solid defensive ability (62 PSD & 67 BLK), and a surprisingly decent jumper (42 JPS), MacCulloch is a serviceable 3rd-string big. He has the potential (B potential in ORB, PSD, and BLK) to move up to 2nd-string, but at 27 is unlikely to fulfill any of that. He's the kind of guy you pick up at the end of the FA Free-for-All.
Anthony Carter
Another older guy, 27-year-old Anthony Carter's a poor man's Andre Miller. A really, really poor man. Though his ballhandling and defensive capabilities are very solid (66 HND, 67 PAS, 66 PRD, 87 STL), and his PER this season (14.1) speaks to how reliable he is, his speed is extremely low-end (77 QKN), and expecting quality offensive production from him is a fool's game (39 INS, 49 JPS, 38 3PS). He's best served as a distributor for an energetic second unit, or perhaps the steady hand off the bench to balance out a high-scoring, low-assisting starting PG. He's a slight step up from the Dedric Willoughbys of the world, but still not worth too much of your attention if you're really looking to spend.
Kenny Thomas
OK, here's where I call BS. Kenny Thomas? Really? And he's an NBA champ? You never know just who's gonna stick around sometimes. That's what makes it fun, I guess. Anyway, I'm gonna be honest here, I have no idea why anyone would want this guy. He's pretty good in the post (68 ORB, 63 DRB, 61 PSD, 50 BLK, 41 INS), but he's 6'7" and slow (36 QKN), who cares? Unless you're a beast like Brand, you're just not gonna be effective in the post at that size. Even though he's 25, I'll be stunned if he's on a roster come opening night next season.
Greg Buckner
Buckner's kinda like Willoughby in that he's managed to survive in this league while being severely undersized for his position. A 26-year-old 6'4" swingman with 57 QKN, if it wasn't for Buckner's stout wing D (67 PRD, 82 STL), solid shooting ability (50 INS, 69 JPS, 65 3PS), and reliability (14.1 PER this season, 16.8 the last), there's no way he would've made it past his first year in the league. As it is, he's carved out a very small niche for himself as a very solid bench guy. I say "small" niche because I'm not sure how much longer a guy his size can remain effective. Like Foster, only GMs who have a good idea of how to use him should go after him, as he's just too strange of a player to just plug in anywhere.
Trajan Langdon
Yet another 6'3" SG shorty, Trajan's smart shooting has kept him in the league throughout his rookie deal. How smart? Earlier this season, he scored 23 points in 12 minutes. When looking at his ratings (48 INS, 57 JPS, 76 3PS, 72 QKN, 94 FT) it makes a little bit more sense, but it's still an unexpected and impressive performance. While he still has some potential left (B in JPS, 3PS, and PRD), at 26 it hardly matters. He's worth a spot on your bench anyway, if you like small guards that is.
Jonathan Bender
I kinda see why he's still in the league. Standing 7 feet tall with decent athleticism (40 QKN, 72 STR, 52 JMP), post D (51 PSD & 60 BLK), and ability to stretch the floor (44 3PS), he's an interesting guy to keep around. But, at 22, he's still rawer than a hunter's fresh kill. While he once posted decent numbers in his first two seasons in the league (7.1 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 1.1 bpg his first year, 7.8 ppg his second) his inexperience showed. Now he'll be an RFA, and he's still all potential and promise, very little in terms of actual effectiveness. A reasonable gamble if you're looking for a young athletic stretch 4 with great height.
Calvin Booth
Players like Booth are what really makes RFA interesting: Late bloomers with great potential. At 26, Booth isn't a good bet to improve, but if he does...wow. A potential in ORB, DRB, PSD, and BLK to go along with B potential in INS and STL means that Booth could become an excellent center one day. 100 BLK means that he's already one of the best defensive bigs in the league, so even if he doesn't improve one bit, he's still worth about what Jeff Foster will make. But again, he's 26. He'll have to reach that potential quickly before he drops off for good. Can he do it? I don't know, but I do think he's worth some cash now. Any added improvement will be a very welcome - and impactful - bonus.
So, now that we've outlined the prospects, what's the chances of landing these guys? Will any be declined? Stay tuned for Part 2!The next-gen Cedric Ceballos, Marion is without a doubt one of the top 3's in the game today. Athletic as hell (76 QKN, 87 STR, 60 JMP, 97 STA) and already a dominant rebounder at Small Forward (70 in ORB, 86 in DRB), the 24-year-old is also developing into a versatile defensive stud (69 in PSD, 59 in PRD, 61 in STL, 60 in BLK). In fact, versatility is the name of his game, as there's very little (like handling the ball) that Marion can't do at least adequately. One must wonder if he'll ever truly make his mark offensively though, because despite being well-rounded (47 INS, 57 JPS, 61 3PS), the chances for improvement are slim (C's in INS & JPS, B in 3PS). Given that he's only 6'7" (thus making SG a better choice for his secondary position as opposed to PF), you'd ideally want a bit more scoring out of your swingman, and Shawn may not provide that. Still, his sheer defensive/rebounding potential (A's in DRB & STL, B's in ORB, PSD, and PRD, a C in BLK) and outstanding athleticism makes him an attractive prospect, and 15 ppg's just good enough to make throwing max money at a defensive stopper justifiable.
Baron Davis
Drafted No. 1 in '99, Baron was on his way to becoming one of the strangest busts ever, posting mediocre numbers despite his incredible ratings and potential. However, with RFA on the horizon, Baron Davis has had a breakout season scoring-wise, averaging 17 ppg, 2.2 spg, and posting a PER of 23, as well as improving his efficiency from long range (.418 3P%). How...convenient. To be quite honest, Baron has everything it takes to become a Top 3 PG in the league. Height? 6'3". Shooting? 66 INS (A potential), 66 JPS (B potential), 72 3PS (A potential). Facilitating? 81 HND (A potential) and 71 PAS (A potential). Defense? 78 PRD (A potential...noticing a trend?) and 95 STL (I'm sure you can guess his potential there). Athleticism? 89 QKN, 54 STR, 68 JMP, 100 STA. At 24, he might just be coming into his own, which is an absolutely terrifying thought. Baron's as certain a max-level player as you can get, sketchy production be damned.
Steve Francis
The opposite of Baron, Stevie Franchise was on his way to a certain 5-year max...and then, inexplicably, he slacked off during the offseason. Whereas he once had potential as an all-around PG, he now looks suspiciously like a taller Allen Iverson, and ask Inner how he felt about that max. With 66 INS (and B potential), Steve can definitely finish, but struggles to stretch the floor (42 JPS, 57 3PS, C potential in both), and is woefully average when it comes to spreading the ball around (51 HND, 56 PAS, C potential in both). Now don't get me wrong, Stevie's still a very solid player...but I don't think he's the "Franchise" anymore. 26 is usually when a guy comes into his own, not drops off. He's worth close to the max, but a full one? Ehh...
Ron Artest
If Shawn Marion was a true swingman, he'd be Ron Artest. Apparently Ron didn't appreciate being booted out of Charlotte, so he put some work in during the offseason. Already a premier wing defender (78 PRD and 88 STL, with A potential in both), Ron's developed a nice outside shot (71 3PS with A potential) and strong post game on both ends (63 INS with A potential and 64 PSD with B potential). Despite fairly run-of-the-mill athleticism (70 QKN, 68 STR, 65 JMP, 96 STA), Ron's 19 ppg suggests that he just might be turning into the second coming of Stacey Augmon - a scoring puch to go along with fearsome defense. At just 23, maxing him's a no-brainer.
Manu Ginobili
Less certain is the slow-developing Argentinan, Manu Ginobili. After solid but fairly uninspiring numbers caused Portland to wave the white flag on him, Manu's picked it up a little in Milwaukee, but not that much to be honest. 15 ppg in just over 31 mpg's alright, but a 15.4 PER cements Manu as the very definition of an average wing scorer. What's strange is that when looking at him, he's incredibly well-rounded. 54 INS, 47 JPS, 64 3PS, 53 HND, 46 PAS, 60 PRD, 65 STL, 84 QKN, 53 STR, 70 JMP, 72 STA? Okay, that last one is pretty weak, but still. He's just young enough (25) to lay claim to being an unfinished product, but anyone paying him anything close to max money is gambling on potential alone. That's not a bad thing, given that he still shows promise (A in STL, B's in INS, JPS, 3PS, HND, PRD), but paying to firmly secure his services will not come without risk.
Richard "Rip" Hamilton
One the league's most lethal young scorers, hometown hero Rip Hamilton's the primary reason why the 76ers have regained a mesure of respectability. He's just 25, but his role as a player is clear: Score by any means necessary, from anywhere on the floor. If you have to be a one-dimensional player, this is how you do it. 71 INS (B potential), 95 JPS (A potential), 78 3PS (B potential). Everything else is average, save his elite-level speed (82 QKN), but when you can score that well, who really needs more? He's worthy of a max-level deal just off of scoring ability alone.
Elton Brand
Dominant since Day 1, Brand is arguably the best PF in the game, given how he's able to produce at such a high level despite his height (6'8"). Part of this is due to his ungodly athleticism (54 QKN, 95 STR, 85 JMP, 100 STA), but most of it is just the fact that he's just that damn good (81 INS, 81 ORB, 64 DRB, 63 PSD, 75 BLK), and at only 24, will only get better (A potential in INS & ORB, B in DRB, PSD, and BLK). He hasn't posted a PER of under 22 yet, marking him as a true franchise player. I can't say more because there's not much left to be said. Brand's production speaks for itself.
Andre Miller
After just one season with the Hawks, Miller was forced into one of the worst situations possible - having to fill the shoes of a legend in Dallas. Even though he hasn't filled the scoring void (that's Jamison's job), he's done the impossible and performed better (!) than Penny ever did at spreading the ball around. That's worth your money, right? Not so fast. While Dre has solidified himself as a top-tier Dish-n-D PG (74 HND, 85 PAS, 78 PRD, 76 STL), his scoring output is shockingly lacking. 80 JPS and 69 INS for a PG should get you more than 12.7 ppg. And while he's proven that he can captain a Finals-bound team, the fact that he's 27 and already in his prime means that he's a good buy for serious playoff contenders only. If you're not looking to make a serious run within the next two years, you're taking a huge risk. If you are, however, know that you're getting one of the best distributors this side of Kidd or Van Exel. Just make sure you have a scorer or two to put next to him, okay?
Andrei Kirilenko
The first of three RFAs in this class with a ring (!), Kirillenko's stifling defense fit right in with the gameplan of the Lakers, which made his trade to Utah all the more shocking, even with his drop-off in the offseason. It's shocking because he really has little value outside of a defensive stopper, and thus meant way more to LA than anyone else. Though his athleticism for a 6'9" Forward (68 QKN, 80 STR, 70 JMP, 93 STA) is sublime, his offense (46 INS, 32 JPS, 31 3PS) is pitiful, which is only reinforced by the fact that he hasn't averaged more than 10 ppg yet. He's also below-average in efficiency, as 13.5 is his highest PER to date. Again, his value lies in his defense, but with only 49 PSD and 48 STL (C potential for both) as opposed to 62 PRD and 64 BLK (B potential), he seems to be a bit of a defensive tweener, able to guard both posts and wings capably, but not exceptionally or efficiently. Perhaps a speed boost could give him a shot to succeed as a Bruce Bowen-esque shutdown swingman. At 22, he has plenty of time to improve, but with D's and C's all over his potential, that's a bit of a longshot. I don't know what the base amount of money is to be considered "starter" money, but whatever it is, Kirilenko shouldn't be making it.
Corey Maggette
Raise your hand if you saw this one coming: After only one season with Atlanta (damn, looks like Wig gave up just as much talent as he brought in) and half a season with Minnesota, 23-year-old Corey Maggette has become a 25 ppg scorer for New Jersey. Wow. Right now he's doing it on the back of his unreal hops (100 JMP), but with B potential in both INS (66) and 3PS (67), it's not hard to imagine him developing the skills to compliment his springs. Unfortunately, outside of some rebounding skills (42 ORB, 56 DRB), he's extremely one-dimensional, moreso than Rip Hamilton, even. If he's not scoring, he's usually not worth having on the floor, but the chances of him not scoring are low. Unlike Hamilton, he lacks the elite speed (74 QKN) to offset being of average height (6'6") for the ever-growing swingman position, but that's a minor concern. 25 ppg at 23 years old is max money no matter what.
Jason Terry
After a strong playoff showing, the Jet was on his way to becoming the new face of Detroit Basketball, but a few question marks have now been raised. Terry sacrificed working on his shooting to improve other aspects of his game, and 61 HND, 50 PAS, 57 PRD, and 60 STL is solid, though not spectacular, for a PG. Even with that though, his scoring ability remains superb. 63 INS, 85 JPS, and 89 3PS are top-notch numbers. So what's the problem? Well, it seems as if outside of his shooting (B potential in INS, A in JPS & 3PS) and a couple of random areas (B in HND & STL), it seems as if his potential has been maxed out heading into his prime (Terry is 25). And at 6'2", scoring ability alone won't save him forever. The league is getting bigger (as more and more 6'3" and up PGs enter the league) and faster, and Terry's speed (81 QKN) is more of what you'd expect from one of the bigger/older PG's in this league, rather than one of it's younger stars. So despite averaging 20 ppg for 3 straight seasons, Terry might be one of those "almost-max" guys.
Lamar Odom
If you need proof that the league's changing, look no further than 6'10" swingman Lamar Odom. Yes, I said swingman. Actually, "everyman" might be a better word, because as one of the most versatile players in the league today, Lamar possesses raw athleticism unheard of for a man his size. With 78 QKN he can run with most guards, and With 91 STR he can bang in the post with any big. Problem is (like Robert Horry before him), he seems to be one of those guys who does all of the little things, but struggles with the big things, like scoring. 47 INS and 31 JPS is solidly unimpressive, and 67 3PS means that though he can stretch the floor, he won't be consistent while doing so. It's clear that his athleticism is the only thing allowing him to score now (14.5 ppg), and with C potential in all scoring areas other than 3PS (B potential there), will be the only thing allowing him to score for the rest of his career. But to be honest, that's not why you'd want him anyway. You'd want him for the little things, like the 5 apg, the 9.4 rpg, and the 52 PRD and 46 STL (both C potential) that allows him to give average defensive production out on the perimeter. Lamar's that guy you know isn't quite max money, but you give it to him anyway because there's nothing like a nice, shiny, expensive swiss-army knife.
Wally Szczerbiak
Though he's a far cry now from what Seattle thought they were getting when they drafted him, Wally Z's nonetheless carved out a niche for himself as a capable, efficient bench scorer, especially from long range (64 3PS). At 26, potential doesn't mean all that much anymore, which is good, since he doesn't have any anyway. He's also only a bench guy because his defense is weak (33 PSD, 24 PRD), only saved by his solid athleticism (62 QKN, 71 STR, 52 JMP, 92 STA), and unlike Maggette and Hamilton, he simply can't put the ball in the basket often enough to justify watching him get blown up on D for 30+ mpg. Still, as his .537 career TS% can attest to, he's a smart shooter, and a good guy to have coming off the bench. How much that's worth is anyone's guess.
Dedric Willoughby
Who? It's not often that you see the 29th overall pick make it through to RFA (and on the same team that drafted him, no less), but Dedric has done it. How? Well despite average scoring ability and potential, and being severely undersized for a SG (6'3"), Dedric is a very, very pesky defender. 72 PRD (B potential) and 81 STL (A potential) combined with 85 QKN means that the little pest can straight-up run a drive-by on bigger guards who don't notice him. When given near-starter minutes like last season, this means 2 spg is all but assured, and his 10 ppg in 2000-01 proves that he knows how to get his points in. Unfortunately, at 28, he won't be able to do what he does much longer. He's an intriguing low-cost pickup, but little more.
James Posey
The third Piston on this list, Posey's a 6'8" menace on the defensive end, especially for wings (78 PRD, 82 STL, A potential in both). But despite solid offensive ratings (41 INS, 62 JPS, 85 3PS), his scoring has been consistently average (12.7 career ppg), though he was cut down by an injury this season. A lack of speed (69 QKN) might be Posey's issue, as most SGs can blow right past him, and most SFs can match his height. This would work against him offensively as well, along with his sad 45 JMP rating. At 26, Posey pretty much is what he is at this point, and though he seems like a guy right on the cusp of being a prime-time player (his PER is steadily creeping up to the 20 mark), one might want to think carefully before bidding to avoid buyer's remorse later on (see: Russell, Bryon).
Jeff Foster
The second NBA champ in this RFA class, Foster has to feel a little bit of deja vu playing for the Magic, who drafted him, then traded him to Atlanta, where he backed up Big Ben and McDyess en route to back-to-back NBA titles. Foster's well-suited to the role of backup big, with 74 STR, 63 JMP, 63 PSD, 87 ORB, and 76 DRB. His rebounding in particular makes him quite useful in certain situations. But that's about the extent of his usefulness, because he's also immobile (19 QKN), inefficient (11.4 career PER), offensively challenged (38 INS, 27 JPS), and at 26, probably isn't getting much better in those aspects of the game. Only spend starter money on this guy if you know what you're doing. If you're a GM just looking to make a splash and gather talent, either look elsewhere or pay at your own risk.
Todd MacCulloch
He's still around? Huh. Guess you really can't teach height. A 7-footer with impressive strength (85 STR), solid defensive ability (62 PSD & 67 BLK), and a surprisingly decent jumper (42 JPS), MacCulloch is a serviceable 3rd-string big. He has the potential (B potential in ORB, PSD, and BLK) to move up to 2nd-string, but at 27 is unlikely to fulfill any of that. He's the kind of guy you pick up at the end of the FA Free-for-All.
Anthony Carter
Another older guy, 27-year-old Anthony Carter's a poor man's Andre Miller. A really, really poor man. Though his ballhandling and defensive capabilities are very solid (66 HND, 67 PAS, 66 PRD, 87 STL), and his PER this season (14.1) speaks to how reliable he is, his speed is extremely low-end (77 QKN), and expecting quality offensive production from him is a fool's game (39 INS, 49 JPS, 38 3PS). He's best served as a distributor for an energetic second unit, or perhaps the steady hand off the bench to balance out a high-scoring, low-assisting starting PG. He's a slight step up from the Dedric Willoughbys of the world, but still not worth too much of your attention if you're really looking to spend.
Kenny Thomas
OK, here's where I call BS. Kenny Thomas? Really? And he's an NBA champ? You never know just who's gonna stick around sometimes. That's what makes it fun, I guess. Anyway, I'm gonna be honest here, I have no idea why anyone would want this guy. He's pretty good in the post (68 ORB, 63 DRB, 61 PSD, 50 BLK, 41 INS), but he's 6'7" and slow (36 QKN), who cares? Unless you're a beast like Brand, you're just not gonna be effective in the post at that size. Even though he's 25, I'll be stunned if he's on a roster come opening night next season.
Greg Buckner
Buckner's kinda like Willoughby in that he's managed to survive in this league while being severely undersized for his position. A 26-year-old 6'4" swingman with 57 QKN, if it wasn't for Buckner's stout wing D (67 PRD, 82 STL), solid shooting ability (50 INS, 69 JPS, 65 3PS), and reliability (14.1 PER this season, 16.8 the last), there's no way he would've made it past his first year in the league. As it is, he's carved out a very small niche for himself as a very solid bench guy. I say "small" niche because I'm not sure how much longer a guy his size can remain effective. Like Foster, only GMs who have a good idea of how to use him should go after him, as he's just too strange of a player to just plug in anywhere.
Trajan Langdon
Yet another 6'3" SG shorty, Trajan's smart shooting has kept him in the league throughout his rookie deal. How smart? Earlier this season, he scored 23 points in 12 minutes. When looking at his ratings (48 INS, 57 JPS, 76 3PS, 72 QKN, 94 FT) it makes a little bit more sense, but it's still an unexpected and impressive performance. While he still has some potential left (B in JPS, 3PS, and PRD), at 26 it hardly matters. He's worth a spot on your bench anyway, if you like small guards that is.
Jonathan Bender
I kinda see why he's still in the league. Standing 7 feet tall with decent athleticism (40 QKN, 72 STR, 52 JMP), post D (51 PSD & 60 BLK), and ability to stretch the floor (44 3PS), he's an interesting guy to keep around. But, at 22, he's still rawer than a hunter's fresh kill. While he once posted decent numbers in his first two seasons in the league (7.1 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 1.1 bpg his first year, 7.8 ppg his second) his inexperience showed. Now he'll be an RFA, and he's still all potential and promise, very little in terms of actual effectiveness. A reasonable gamble if you're looking for a young athletic stretch 4 with great height.
Calvin Booth
Players like Booth are what really makes RFA interesting: Late bloomers with great potential. At 26, Booth isn't a good bet to improve, but if he does...wow. A potential in ORB, DRB, PSD, and BLK to go along with B potential in INS and STL means that Booth could become an excellent center one day. 100 BLK means that he's already one of the best defensive bigs in the league, so even if he doesn't improve one bit, he's still worth about what Jeff Foster will make. But again, he's 26. He'll have to reach that potential quickly before he drops off for good. Can he do it? I don't know, but I do think he's worth some cash now. Any added improvement will be a very welcome - and impactful - bonus.
