Nobody Wants Your Old Ass - Part 2
Posted: Mon May 20, 2024 1:18 am
Nobody Wants Your Old Ass - Part 2
Preface: I’m exclusively talking about max contract players.
There is a misconception around older players. Old max contract players have little value, and that's why most of the league doesn’t trade for them at the trade deadline. The league has a misconception that they are very valuable (especially when they are holding an old-ass player), but their value is actually very limited. Most teams aren’t shopping for a player like Ware, especially at the trade deadline. I will get into why later in the article. (By shopping, I mean most GMs don't trade a top 5 rookie contract and a top 6, 25-year-old, for 30+ year-old players. Nope.) Besides the Suns, I’ll give them props for putting their money where their mouth is.
Here are some of the reasons why very good 30+ year-old players are not very valuable.
Outline:
- The history of why I don’t value very good 30+ players and my realizations about their value across the league
- Depreciation (Lifetime value of depreciation) or not quite but almost straight-line depreciation (it’s actually worse than straight-line depreciation because it accelerates at the end)
- Larger contracts at the end of a career
- Markets determine value (i.e., the long build) - if I win a title in the next few seasons, I want to write an article about my long build
- How training distorts the market by inflating the value of old players and deflating the value of young players, which I believe holds weaker teams down
- The Kel'el Ware trade
- When do I go for 30+ max contracts?
The History of Why I Don’t Value Very Good 30+ Players and My Realizations About Their Value Across the League
Here is the timeline of when I started to figure out that older players are overvalued and younger players are undervalued league-wide. It started with the trade for a 33-year-old He Hor. The trade was a good trade from a value standpoint. Mamba sent me a very favorable deal: 1 blue pot rookie, points, and a draft pick (on a bad team) for a top, if not the top, point guard in the league at the time. If I recall correctly, that first-round pick was about a 10th or an 11th pick and ended in a similar place. So, that's a lower/mid-first-round pick, and a #5 pick (i.e. solid blue player) and points, for a top-tier point guard.
But in the long run, the He Hor trade really didn’t make sense for me.
First, I didn’t have enough other players to be good enough to contend for a title.
Second, He Hor made me too good to be a tanking team. Because he was at the end of his career, I didn’t have enough time to add pieces to make it work.
Third, He Hor was in the last year of his contract. To make the trade worth it, I would need to re-sign him for max money. That would have kept me out of the free agency market for a while, making it near impossible to add the necessary pieces through free agency.
Fourth, I traded him away to the Pacers, but I kept an eye on him to see what happened. The first year, the Pacers were in contention. But by the next year, he started to slip. By the third year (year 2 of a 4 year deal with a team option so a three year deal) , he had gone g/g with two years left on a max contract on a 16-year veteran, essentially turning into a poison pill.
Fifth, I no longer had rookie contracts which meant it was going to take me longer to build a contender.
The next player that made me think older players have little value was Kyle Kuric. The lack of value of players nearing the end of their primes again started to take shape when I could not trade a 30-year-old (at the start of the season) Kyle Kuric, who on 28.7 minutes per game was averaging 19.4 on .474 FG%, 4.5 assists, and a 2.11 A/T, solid defense, and average steals. He was on a contract around a 50 million 2-year team option contract. (I don’t know the exact contract number because the 2053 season is blank for some reason.) During the season, I was talking to teams that were trying to win a title. Even though he was a better player than their SG, no one wanted to send a rookie, and most didn’t want him at all because they couldn’t afford him.
Next player to make me realize how little people valued older players was Jordan Poole. Jordan Poole at 30: He led the league in assists and scored a decent amount. An assist-to-turnover ratio of 5.04. He scored 13 points a game. Jordan Poole was a top 5 point guard over the last two years and I could not give him away. Why? He’s an older player on a max deal.
How much interest did I get in Kevon Looney for 10 points? Zero. There is very little interest in older players league-wide (and for good reason which I will continue to get into).
Depreciation (Lifetime Value of Depreciation) or (Really Worse Than) Straight-Line Depreciation
First, the concept of depreciation. What is the value of a rookie contract purple? Here is a depreciation expense formula adapted for sim league.
Formula: Value of a Player = (Number of seasons he is expected to be worth a max deal - Total number of seasons already played = Current Value as compared to themselves)
Example: If Daneil Johnson has 5 years of playing at his full potential and is in the first year of it; he still has his full value. If Kevon Looney has been fully productive (i.e. worth his max) for 5 years and only has 2 years left playing at his full potential, he is only 2/7 as valuable as he was when he started reaching his full potential.
When you're holding an old player, the logic looks like this: “This guy is a generational talent, so you have to send players that are equal to him in talent.” This type of logic doesn’t take a lot of different factors into account, but primarily it ignores depreciation. Like a car, once a player's production becomes worth their max contract, each year after they are worth even less, each consecutive year. What is a 30-year-old purple potential worth then?
Each player has a bell curve to their career. Some are longer than others, some drop quickly, but all of them come into the league as weaker versions of what they will become (assuming they are worth insuring). These players often go green/green or even yellow/yellow while still on a max deal, which means they are often not only valueless, they have negative value. This is easily demonstrated by asking: Would you rather add a 2054 Kel'el Ware or a 2058 Kel'el Ware?
2054 Kel'el Ware is 25 years old, scores 20.3 points a game, rebounds at 9.8 per game, 1.9 assists, and 3.6 blocks per game. 2058 Kel'el Ware is 29 years old, scores 22.0 points a game, rebounds at 10.4 per game, 1.6 assists, and 2.9 blocks per game. The main benefit of a 2054 Kel'el Ware vs. 2058 Kel'el Ware is you get more years to try and put together a winning team. 2054 Kel'el Ware is worth a purple potential player. He is a potential player and he is just starting to hit his prime. 2058 Kel'el Ware is halfway through his prime; he will literally get worse every year and the rate of depreciation is unknown. (With a TC of +4 and a -7 to his speed, 2058 Kel'el Ware will be worse next year.) What we do know for sure is that a player starting their prime is more valuable than the same player that is starting his decline.
So, if you have a player like A'ja Wilson, you might trade him for a player like 2054 Kel'el Ware. They are relatively equal in value in that they both have not used up any of their prime years (although they may have a different number of prime years which does matter). But, while A'ja Wilson for 2058 Kel'el Ware might happen for a variety of reasons, the player that picks up 2058 Kel'el Ware will get less than half of Kel'el Ware’s prime, while the player that received A'ja Wilson will have gotten more than half of Kel'el Ware’s prime and all of A'ja Wilson's prime. Because of this depreciation, a 30-year-old Kel'el Ware is not worth A'ja Wilson. What is he worth? For me, there is a lot of grey area here, but one thing should be obvious: he is worth less than a purple potential that has not started his prime years yet.
Larger Contracts at the End of a Career
Criticism that my 10 points for Looney doesn’t prove not that valuable because timing is everything. First, I completely agree timing is everything, but that doesn’t negate my argument. If Looney is so valuable, why wouldn’t anyone want his 103-million-dollar contract? I have already put out a list of players that would be easy to move for 10 points before the season starts. Why isn’t Looney one of those players? Because he’s not worth 103 million and GMs think they can pick him up on a cheaper contract during free agency and not pay me the 10 points.
Also, the end of a very talented player's max contract is the most you will pay for that player. Think 100,000,000. While you could have a slightly younger player who is just as good on a max contract around 70,000,000. A 30 million dollar difference might not seem like a lot but it is.
Another reason very good older players aren’t that valuable is that, during the season, good teams have good players that are taking up most of their cap space; they can’t add a large contract. There are few teams at the trade deadline that can/will take on max players and they will most likely only want the top 5-10 players in the league, to improve on what they already have.
Looking at the negative effects of holding an older max player from a contractual standpoint. Often teams that have been good for a while need to move older good players to get under the cap. If they don't, their tax burden grows and grows and they eventually land in tax jail.
(That being said, the two teams that should have promised the 10 points for Looney are the Rockets or the Cavs. The Rockets with a true center and Sion would be a problem. And Looney paired with Jonathan Isaac and Devin Vassell would be a problem.)
Markets Determine Value (i.e., The Long Build)
Let’s take a further look at why some of my Poole and Looney were definitely not worth a top 5 rookie contracts, according to the market. And why did no one come for Looney? Why didn’t anyone come to get Jordan Poole? And why did I not pick up his team option? Where are the people lining up to get these old players?
The reason: Number of teams not in rebuild mode: a few (5 at most - Reference Ware section of the article)
Most teams are in rebuild mode; Like I said about the effect of He Hor on my team, I would win but not enough to be good but too much to tank. The most important thing I figured out from the He Hor trade is that there are a lot more teams in my position (not good, and trying to rebuild) There are far fewer teams close to winning a title once the season has started. That means there were far more bad teams that acquiring He Hor would actually not help them build a contender in the short or the long run.
There are a ton of good older win-now players available (almost every team has at least 1). As the season goes on, there are fewer and fewer GMs that feel they are truly competitive, so they stop looking for win-now players. As the sim year goes on, more and more teams realize they are not in contention and shift into rebuild mode for the next year. So, the teams that were buyers at the start of the season become sellers by the trade deadline.This negatively affects the market for older max contract players. All of this is what led to the following trade for a purple pot player.
This is what the free market says a 29-year-old purple potential is worth:
Celtics Send:
5 points
Sanford Benefield
2058 1st
Magic Send:
Ebbe Clauer
Here is another example of a trade accurately valuing rookie contract and max contract players. This trade made sense to me. Dyson Daniels for Daniel Johnson (other players were involved but this is the essence of the trade)
Lakers Send:
Dyson Daniel (Celtics)
Markus Conover (Celtics)
Frank Chavez (Raptors)
Raptors Send:
Reuben Rager (Celtics)
Robert Rex (Celtics)
Woodrow Lucky (Celtics)
Jaylen Warley (Celtics)
Celtics Send:
Daniel Johnson (Lakers)
Look at it from the Lakers' point of view. The essence of this trade for the Lakers is sending 1 solid blue pot rookie contract for a premier point guard who has just turned blue/blue for the first time this year. If the Lakers are able to re-sign him, they are set at point guard for 4 to 5 years and are going to get the best years out of Daniel Johnson all for the price of one blue pot rookie. In this scenario both teams would be getting all the prime years of each player's career. The Celtics get a weaker player but get under the cap. It’s a win-win.
If the Lakers ship Johnson when he is 30 or 31 and still b/b, for a blue pot rookie, they have essentially had 3 to 4 winning seasons for free.
The exception to the “long build" or "the years long rebuild” is the Bulls. The Bulls signed all their old players because no one is going for the oldies. (They are somehow able to constantly find hidden value in older players) Their style of team building is an argument for going after only oldies, but honestly, I think the Bulls are just on another level than us mere mortals. I’d love to see someone try the Bulls' style of building, but I kinda think you have to be a God of the game (i.e. know everything about the game) to pull it off. But even the bulls when they get a top rookie contract like Mac Mcclung hang onto him for dear life. (Although they did let Alex Fudge go; a #3 pick)
How Training Distorts the Market by Inflating the Value of Old Players and Deflating the Value of Young Players, which I Believe Holds Weaker Teams Down
I think the league would be more fun with faster turnaround times for bad teams. (I’m not talking about flipping players since bad teams often don't have good older players to flip.) This could be encouraged by an aggressive tax system and no more player training; which I think would help send more talent to the bad teams for cheaper.
With player training a GM can turn a player barely blue, but it's hard for a new GM to tell the difference between a barely blue and a true blue.(especially without constant player page access). Instead, New GMs see players moving true or even what I call “purple/blue” pot rookies for older players because they want to “play the game.” But their teams are bad, and often they have top 5 picks, their blues are often more valuable than the “blue pot” 9 -15 pick rookies that have been trained to barely be blue.
I’ve been told by very good GMs on “win now" teams that don’t like to trade their blue pot rookie contracts (even those that are barely blue because of training) for rental players. They would rather trade their blue pot rookies for players who they can build around in the long term. (i.e., not old ass players with a year or two left on their contracts.)
Most GM’s don’t want to take on a 50-million-dollar contract because their star players were already taking up all of their cap space, and adding 50 million during the season was nearly impossible and if possible would push them uncomfortably deep into the tax.
Kel'el Ware Trade Proposals
Let’s take a look at Candace Parker and Caitlin Clark vs. Kel'el Ware and the other offer.
I disagree with the idea that stewards shouldn’t be trying to get rookies. What will a new GM step into? People should be trying to extract as much future value out of their older players before they become less valuable. Especially if they are not making a title run or at least competing in the playoffs.
Kel'el Ware is absolutely worth Candace Parker and Caitlin Clark. Kel’el Ware is the best center in the league, and Candace Parker and Caitlin Clark will probably never even be all-stars, but I think that deal was worth it and the deal I offered later and then rescinded was also definitely worth it.
But instead, let's take a look at the rescinded offer (since I assume it's less controversial).
I offered and quickly rescinded Clark, Poole and Quinones for Ware--the stewards told me they would not have done it anyway. This is the overvaluing of great older players rearing its ugly head again.
If they had made the trade they would have two rookie contracts and cap space for a max contract to pick up a top 10 talent in free agency, and a higher draft pick (top 10 maybe).
Second, there has been a lot of talk about why no one else went after him. Well let's take a look around the team this season.
Here are the teams that were playoff teams that might be looking for older talent like Ware:
Pistons who have really good players who are young, but no one on a rookie deal.
The Bull who have no rookies and cheaper older players.
The Spurs who look a lot like the Pistons, but do have a few green/green rookies, and are in a worse spot as far as the cap goes.
The Sun's were a real contender (with Henry Widener) but would have to send back real talent or a poison pill for next year in Phil.
The Nuggets could have put together a good package.
The Celtics probably would send Alcindor, or what might have worked would have been to send Johnson and get Ware instead of Dyson Daniels, but they probably did that to lower their cap, and get under the apron.
The Pacers could send Dan Spooner but they seem dedicated to him.
The magic could have put together a good package.
The Cavs don’t have much to move this season. (But they will have cap space next season.)
The Trailblazer already have a center and are in the middle of a rebuild.
The Bobcast could put together a package but not have enough to contend.
The Spurs have some green/green rookies with some high contracts of good 27 -29 year olds.
The Rockets could move Matthew Falcon.
The rest of the team didn’t make the playoffs so moving Ware there is out of the question.
Now what happens if you hold on to Ware? Essentially, you have Victor Wembanyama; and who’s coming to pick up that contract? Victor is still under contract for the next 2 years. He is going to be worse in each of those years. Sure, he was a purple potential player at one point, but now he's not. Is he worth the 91 million, like Looney I suspect not.
Maybe, in the offseason the Bucks will get a package for Ware that is better than a #5 pick and a #7 pick, still on rookie contracts (and an improved draft pick). He is one of the best centers in the game but as we saw with Poole, Looney, Kuric, Ebbe Clauer, Daniel Johnson it's far above market price and there are few suitors.
When do I 30+ max contracts?
I go after 30+ year old max players, when I already have the squad together, or I have cap space after UFA 1, or I get him for less than a top 5 rookie contract (I would include rookies that got a bump in TC). I go after players like Looney, Ware, and rent for 1 season to go deep into the tax and to try for the title.