THE ROADMAP NOBODY ASKED FOR
Posted: Mon Apr 10, 2023 2:12 pm
Word count: Enough to max out
This idea is nothing unique or fresh, and is a spin-off from one of the Town Hall questions that I proposed (among other times I’ve seen people like Josh write something similar). However, a guy needs to get his article points so this word count needs beefed up! Since I’ve already done my playoff predictions, how about we pull the lotto teams and go over what kinds of things they should be focusing on (In my opinion, of course) going into another off-season to get themselves on a winning track. With some teams I may be very specific if I have strong opinions about how they could proceed, others I could be very vague and open-ended. Let’s just see how this all goes, yeah?
UTAH JAZZ
When you only win 5 games, there are obviously a lot of steps that you need to take to get on the right path towards winning. There is one massively obvious change that needs to happen:
The GM must get engaged and involved.
The first step towards that would be to dive in and do some accounting so that these overdue tax bills can be paid in full. I’ve personally done some preliminary numbers crunching so I know that Gary can pay this bill off very easily, but he must go in and do the work. Doing the work will require him to be active. With the state of this roster, Gary really doesn’t even have to rush to take care of the tax problem either. Les Kim had a ridiculously fruitful season in his expiring contract year but won’t be worth bringing back. The Jazz have no worthwhile RFAs upcoming and have no blue potential players (young or old) at all, so they can take some time to tally up their points. It is also beneficial to be awful the next handful of seasons so that they can pile up some great assets (Like when they drafted and developed Angelo Romero and Charles Alleman together). The faster they get paid up though, means the faster they are able to really play in the free agency markets, even if it is just to try winning players so they can deal them quickly for points/picks/young players.
In short: Pay your bill, be awful, don’t trade your picks, and bide your time.
SAN ANTONIO SPURS
Unlike the Jazz, the Spurs have an active (and competent) owner, plus legit pieces to build around. Brandon Ingram is a star of the highest order and Pee Wee Kirkland has the potential to be an MVP of the league though is still several seasons away from reaching that potential. Kozak may not be a difference-maker but can be a sturdy starting Center or Power Forward in the future. Hoyt Timmerman has the potential to be the perfect complementary player for Ingram because he has the ability to become a top-end perimeter defender. Carlos has wanted to stop tanking coming into this season but it didn’t work out that way for him (Trading Mahmoud and Larry Williams didn’t help). Coming into this next off-season, he is going to have some cap space to play with and pieces to move around. I think he can certainly flip this roster into a playoff team immediately. The perfect time to strike will be before RFA because he has both Kozak and Timmerman needing new contracts and I expect they both will get some play from other GMs (especially Timmerman). If I were him, I would be dangling my upcoming lotto pick to get a true star next to Ingram. I don’t know who will be available but I am certain that he won’t have trouble moving that pick if he wants to. Pee Wee Kirkland isn’t a player I’d be too anxious to move. In fact, I probably wouldn’t at all, regardless of which players may get offered to me. His potential is higher than just about anyone else’s in the league right now. I doubt he will need to move him to build a playoff roster either. Ingram along with a player brought in using his 1st round pick, fruitful TCs by Timmerman and Kozak and some shrewd free agency moves? Likely puts him right back on the winning track.
HOUSTON ROCKETS
It was great seeing 78 take steps towards real activity again this past season and he is in a great position to turn things around after some really bleak seasons after a horrific UFA period some seasons ago. Much like the Jazz, the Rockets need to get their financials in order so that they can really get their hands dirty and engage with the game and fix its roster. 78 and I have discussed this matter and he has more than enough points to get right with the tax collector, so now he just has to finish the job and count it, post it. Once that is completed, he can take some of the leftover points that he will have and possibly pay someone to take the final season of Jalen Suggs’ contract off of his hands. However, that is not really necessary since it is to his benefit to be awful at least once more and he is already below the tax threshold for next season, allowing Suggs to simply fall off after this season. With Sion James (freshy purple) and Jaylen Forbes (freshly blue) on the roster (and a likely top 3 pick), the Rockets have the young pieces, financial flexibility to really make moves in a few seasons time. Pay your bills, keep your picks, develop Sion/Forbes, and start looking ahead at when you can strike with your collection of assets you’ll earn in the coming seasons.
MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES
This is one I don’t really have to get into because the path is clear and it is one that K100 has already perfected. He has to gobble up as many points as he possibly can so that he can chip away at that tax bill so that he can really engage with the game again. Get points for Jalen Warley and David Brown. Prepare his draft picks for trades down to earn points while not leaving the lotto (because he loves his renames). Go after smart vet mins in free agency so that you can flip them at Day 60 for more points. Points. Points. Points. Points.
And did I mention points?
CHARLOTTE BOBCATS
This roster is a mess, there is no doubt about that. Way too much money for players who don’t deserve it with no early exits built into those contracts. Why is Khalifa Diop making $20mil per season for 3 seasons? Why is Simon Lenz making $10mil? Kofi Cockburn at $15mil? David Rodriguez at $30mil!? Hell, you signed a Y/Y Point Guard $10mil per season then proceeded to never play him. So, the first step(s) is to find ways out of as many of those contracts as you possibly can. Look, even with those awful deals, you have some pieces that should be valuable to contending teams or even re-building teams. James Northrup, Josiah Blair, Jordan Poole are all players/contracts that have value and should be attractive to the right teams. For instance? I’d go to the Rockets and see about flipping Josiah Blair and David Rodriguez for sweet cap relief. They aren’t contending soon anyways and Blair is young enough to have value to 78 to give him a solid blue big man to go with Sion James. The league is always looking for Point Guards too, so Jordan Poole should be able to net you something. I’d try my best to pair Poole with Alston or Diop to clear more long-term salary and clean these books up. Northrup has a fouling issue and is not a great offensive player, but his contract is very reasonable, is only 27 and plays great defense. I don’t know what you can swap him for, but I’d be looking to find out.
So, yeah, clean these books up.
DALLAS MAVERICKS
Here’s a GM that is working through some trial and error, figuring out what works for him in this league, and I really appreciate it. He’s been unafraid to make moves and try things out, which is what you need to be able to do if you want to fully grasp the ins and outs of this stuff. One thing you have to do is get your team option declines in on-time, because that has definitely made it more difficult for you this coming season. Still, it isn’t the worst thing because it isn’t likely you’ll be able to build a top-flight contender in this next off-season regardless. This Mavs roster has two really strong young pieces in Kuminga and Henderson and those guys should be the focus. I even think Ransdell and Owens are at least interesting youngsters with some upside to be solid role-players. What I would NOT be doing is working too hard at bringing back Terrance Lewis-Weeks. If he can be brought back on a solid contract? Sure, maybe, but if don’t overpay that guy and don’t tie-up your long-term financial flexibility with him when Scoot is going to need to be paid after next season. I’d also have Clarence Martin and Michael Moore on the trade block immediately when these playoffs end and try your best to bring back a viable young piece back in return. Martin is not a GREAT player and an expiring contract so, I don’t know what he will net out in the wild, but he’s a good 6th man type of player for a contending team, who someone should value.
NEW ORLEANS PELICANS
The rebuild process is already well underway in New Orleans. Ned Lomax being traded was the first big move that needed to happen and now the Pelicans have (possibly too many) a bunch of really strong young players to kick start a rebuild, including the top 3 picks from last draft. Three moves that I’d be trying to make still though: Get a few points for Andy Elliott’s expiring contract, Flip either Steeve Ho You Fat or Zed Key for a similarly aged/skilled Small Forward, Trade Trey Murphy III but only if he gets a legit return back and not for some salary dump type move. All of those moves would maximize the Pelicans ability to build around Carrasco, Bricker and Griner and if he can bring in a solid collection of points in those deals? Maybe gives some training points to throw at Griner and Carrasco especially (IMO the keys to the next build).
TORONTO RAPTORS
I really like the foundation that this team has built. Kevon Looney is a player that I’ve coveted since he was drafted, I saw the potential in Liddell early (and traded for him), and Quincy Johnson is a strong scorer on a solid contract. The issue is that there is no clear alpha on this roster, and I am not sure what the path to finding one is, though some lotto luck would really change my tune on that. I would definitely be looking to move Honeycutt’s final contract year if I can get younger or a nice asset back, but that might only be if I don’t get lotto luck. Either way, I am putting my 1st round pick on the trade block if I am the Raptors, but obviously the quality of the player you can get back in return will vary massively based on where it lands. If I jump or stay the same? I’m probably keeping Honeycutt so that I can have another strong player on top of Looney, Quincy, Liddell when I trade for someone using the pick. If I drop in the lotto and miss out on the blue potential players, I would be trying to shed Honeycutt too. I also probably would not have declined Hassan Hodges’s contract for this coming season because it would have given me another chunk contract to trade when I put my pick on the block. Having tradeable contracts is underrated when you’re trying to develop a winner.
MIAMI HEAT
I honestly don’t know what the hell happened to this team. I thought this was a sure-fire playoff team coming into the season and yet it has been one massive collapse. It’s really time to just tear it all down and start over. The problem is, I am not sure what this collection of players will net in trades since they’re mostly all super expensive and aging fast. Kai, Bates, Dixson, Cuevas are all 30 or above and 3 of them will essentially be expiring contracts. I think some of them will be able to be moved, but there may need to be some flexibility on return and creativity to get it all done. Look for teams who want to contend and have some extra assets to turn. Could the Raptors be a match? Perhaps the Suns with their upcoming lotto pick? The Bucks who need to capitalize on Wembanyama hitting his prime? I’d be looking everywhere and starting the process of rebuilding your cache of assets, because they are really needed. Tony Krebs might be your first domino to fall since he’s a strong PG and on a reasonable salary.
CLEVELAND CAVALIERS
Continue to be patient and pick your spots. It will be key to the franchise’s long-term health. Be careful about investing too much money and time into Brian Loos because he isn’t going to be a difference-maker but if he’s brought back on a reasonable deal, it’s a solid move. Don’t give Gordon away but don’t be afraid to gauge his value with other teams if you get a really good offer. He’s worth keeping and you will have plenty of cap space so he doesn’t have to be dumped, but just be open-minded. There are some decent young assets here, but I’m not sure there are any future STARS. So, I might even be inclined to keep Gordon and use Isaac, Cruz, Marotta as trade chips to put some more around him for the fun of it. The problem is that as fun of a player as Gordon is, he isn’t likely to lead you to a championship which is why I’d be open-minded about dealing him if something worthwhile comes along. This really can go either direction, so I’d put everything on the trade block to start the off-season and then see which path gets great traction first then dive in all the way.
PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS
I don’t even have to type too long for this one. Justin did some great work on this roster in the off-season but completely busted when it came to filling out the rest of the roster. I think the key here is to put Charley Quick with Gerry Folse and see what kind of return you can pull out. I’d be trying to get two starting caliber players for that return if I possibly can but hard to say if that will exist anywhere. This roster can be shaped into a contender, but the work has to be put in to get it there.
PHOENIX SUNS
Find a superstar.
Nate knows this roster is close and he has some assets to get a move done. We all know he’s tried getting Antonio Blakeney and I wouldn’t give up on that dream if I were him. If not? I think there’s still moves to pull off for much cheaper that can really let this roster compete for a championship. Especially in an upcoming market that might be filled with teams needing to reset but not a lot of teams buying. The Suns are in a position to capitalize if they are willing to work the phones and get into the weeds of the trade business. Go take care of business.
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