D-FENCE
Posted: Thu Feb 02, 2023 4:09 pm
Defense wins championships!
Or does it?
I have the idea for two articles, however since I will reach my media point cap once I post this, the other side of this article will have to be completed in Season 63, where I will have another season’s worth of data to compare/contrast. What I want to explore here is what correlation having the league’s best offense and/or defense has towards the goal of winning the championship. For the purposes of this article, there will be two team statistics which I will be leaning on: Points and efficiency on both sides of the court. There will be plenty of context missing without going deeper, however that would take a long time. Instead, if I find a team particularly interesting, I might dive further into how the team got to those rankings.
Let’s go season-by-season.
DEFENSE
Season 61, 2050-2051
Champion: Boston Celtics (4th in defensive efficiency, 7th in points allowed)
Defensive efficiency leader: Washington Wizards, 97.6
Points allowed leader: Memphis Grizzlies, 99.9
-The Celtics were a powerhouse, winning 70 games, and while they did not lead the league in the defensive categories, they were the best team defense in points per shot allowed. The leaders here were not 1 seeds, but still were 2 and 3 in their conference, with the Grizz getting the conference finals but losing to the Bulls in 7 games.
Season 60, 2049-2050
Champion: Detroit Pistons (1st, 2nd)
Defensive efficiency leader: Detroit Pistons & Washington Wizards, 98.8
Points allowed leader: Washington Wizards, 99.4
Season 59, 2048-2049
Champion: Detroit Pistons (1st, 1st)
Defensive efficiency leader: Detroit Pistons, 98.7
Points allowed leader: Detroit Pistons, 99.8
Season 58, 2047-2048
Champion: Detroit Pistons (1st, 1st)
Defensive efficiency leader: Detroit Pistons, 98.3
Points allowed leader: Detroit Pistons, 100.1
Season 57, 2046-2047
Champion: Detroit Pistons (2nd, 2nd)
Defensive efficiency leader: Milwaukee Bucks, 99.1
Points allowed leader: Denver Nuggets, 101.9
-I will just give a quick note about the Pistons and their 4-peat. They destroyed teams on the defensive end throughout this run. This is the best collection of talent we’ve seen to this point in the entire league and their defensive prowess was no small part of that.
Season 56, 2045-2046
Champion: Chicago Bulls (3rd, 5th)
Defensive efficiency leader: Orlando Magic, 98.6
Points allowed leader: Washington Wizards, 102.7
Season 55, 2044-2045
Champion: Chicago Bulls (3rd, 9th)
Defensive efficiency leader: Oklahoma City Thunder, 98.2
Points allowed leader: Los Angeles Lakers (Jon’s version), 97.8
-This starts (or ends since these are Josh’s last championships to this point) an interesting pattern for Josh. He has 7 championships during these 25 seasons which I’m looking up and only once did his defense lead the league in both primary stats and one other time, he got first in one of them. He may be the most resourceful GM we have.
Season 54, 2043-2044
Champion: Philadelphia 76ers (Now Grizzlies) (4th, 3rd)
Defensive efficiency leader: Oklahoma City Thunder, 97.8
Points allowed leader: Oklahoma City Thunder, 99.5
Season 53, 2042-2043
Champion: San Antonio Spurs (4th, 8th)
Defensive efficiency leader: Oklahoma City Thunder, 100.3
Points allowed leader: Oklahoma City Thunder, 99.8
-Back-to-back seasons with Charlie’s Thunder dominating the league on the defensive end but coming up short in the finals. By his own admission he probably did not give these rosters quite enough help offensively to pair with his dominant defense.
Season 52, 2041-2042
Champion: Chicago Bulls (3rd, 6th)
Defensive efficiency leader: Los Angeles Clippers (Me!), 99.5
Points allowed leader: Los Angeles Clippers, 99.7
-My most heartbreaking season …. Moving on.
Season 51, 2040-2041
Champion: San Antonio Spurs (1st, 12th)
Defensive efficiency leader: San Antonio Spurs, 101.9
Points allowed leader: Chicago Bulls, 104.3
Season 50, 2039-2040
Champion: Chicago Bulls (1st, 1st)
Defensive efficiency leader: Chicago Bulls, 98.1
Points allowed leader: Chicago Bulls, 101.5
-Josh’s one clean sweep and it was one hell of a season.
Season 49, 2038-2039
Champion: Chicago Bulls (1st, 2nd)
Defensive efficiency leader: Chicago Bulls, 101.9
Points allowed leader: Detroit Pistons, 104.7
Season 48, 2037-2038
Champion: Denver Nuggets (1st, 1st)
Defensive efficiency leader: Denver Nuggets, 100.9
Points allowed leader: Denver Nuggets, 103.5
Season 47, 2036-2037
Champion: Washington Wizards (1st, 1st)
Defensive efficiency leader: Washington Wizards, 96.9
Points allowed leader: Washington Wizards, 97.8
Season 46, 2035-2036
Champion: Chicago Bulls (2nd, 3rd)
Defensive efficiency leader: Los Angeles Clippers, 101.8
Points allowed leader: Washington Wizards, 104.7
Season 45, 2034-2035
Champion: Los Angeles Clippers (3rd, 7th)
Defensive efficiency leader: Denver Nuggets, 99.2
Points allowed leader: Denver Nuggets, 101.2
-I caught some mighty breaks in this run to my one and only championship. I was not a 1 or 2 seed, as I did not even win my division because of Josh. I avoided the other two top teams in the conference because of injury (Pauly’s Pacers) and perhaps the biggest upset I’ve seen in my time here (Mavs over the Bulls).
Season 44, 2033-2034
Champion: Sacramento Kings (4th, 8th)
Defensive efficiency leader: Los Angeles Clippers, 97.8
Points allowed leader: Los Angeles Clippers, 104.7
-In hindsight, another big upset as I had a dominate team that season on both sides. However, it was the first time I got a taste of how much matchups can matter and how uphill a battle it can be for anyone in a 7-game series when the other team has the best PG in the game and a big size advantage.
Season 43, 2032-2033
Champion: Toronto Raptors (2nd, 2nd)
Defensive efficiency leader: Oklahoma City Thunder, 98.6
Points allowed leader: Oklahoma City Thunder, 101.9
Season 42, 2031-2032
Champion: Chicago Bulls (5th, 5th)
Defensive efficiency leader: Orlando Magic, 94.3
Points allowed leader: Orlando Magic, 96.4
-Josh would likely fully admit that this is only his championship because of terrible injury luck for Andy’s Magic leading up to this Finals (and it still went 7). Boban, the game’s best player at the time, missed the Finals which stopped the Magic’s 3-peat. Orlando was amazing on defense in all three of these seasons but funnily enough, this was their masterpiece and it was not rewarded with a title. On top of leading the league in these categories, they were also tops in opponent FG%, 3PT%, points per shot and adjusted FG%.
Season 41, 2030-2031
Champion: Orlando Magic (1st, 1st)
Defensive efficiency leader: Orlando Magic, 96.2
Points allowed leader: Orlando Magic, 98.9
Season 40, 2029-2030
Champion: Orlando Magic (1st, 1st)
Defensive efficiency leader: Orlando Magic, 96.3
Points allowed leader: Orlando Magic, 99.2
Season 39, 2028-2029
Champion: Denver Nuggets (9th, 4th)
Defensive efficiency leader: Washington Wizards & Orlando Magic, 100.8
Points allowed leader: Washington Wizards, 102.2
Season 38, 2027-2028
Champion: Milwaukee Bucks (1st, 10th)
Defensive efficiency leader: Milwaukee Bucks, 100.1
Points allowed leader: Philadelphia 76ers, 101.6
Season 37, 2026-2027
Champion: San Antonio Spurs (4th, 5th)
Defensive efficiency leader: Denver Nuggets, 97.3
Points allowed leader: Sacramento Kings, 95.3
TOP 10s
POINTS ALLOWED
1. Season 36 Kings: 95.3 points
2. Season 41 Orlando Magic: 96.4 points
3. Season 41 Minnesota Timberwolves: 96.9 points
4. Season 55 Los Angeles Lakers: 97.8 points
5. Season 47 Washington Wizards, 97.8 points
6. Season 36 Denver Nuggets: 97.9 points
7. Season 40 Orlando Magic: 98.9 points
8. Season 39 Orlando Magic: 99.2 points
9. Season 47 Orlando Magic: 99.3 points
10. Season 60 Washington Wizards: 99.4 points
DEFENSIVE EFFICIENCY
1. Season 41 Orlando Magic: 94.3
2. Season 40 Orlando Magic: 96.2
3. Season 39 Orlando Magic: 96.3
4. Season 41 Minnesota Timberwolves: 96.9
4. Season 47 Washington Wizards: 96.9
6. Season 36 Denver Nuggets: 97.3
7. Season 61 Washington Wizards: 97.6
8. Season 54 Oklahoma City Thunder: 97.8
8. Season 43 Los Angeles Clippers: 97.8
10. Season 41 Minnesota Timberwolves: 98.0
FUN FACTS
Number of teams who have won the championship after finishing first in both categories: 7
Number of teams who have NOT won the championship after finishing first in both categories: 9
Number of teams who have won the championship without finishing first in either category: 14 (So, 11 needed 1st in at least one category to win it all)
Three teams have failed to win the championship multiple times after finishing first in both: Thunder (3), Clippers (2), Wizards (2)
Average champion defensive efficiency rating: 2.52
Average champion points against rating: 4.28
Champion breakdown: Bulls (7), Pistons (4), Spurs (3), Magic (2), Nuggets (2), Kings (1), Raptors (1), Clippers (1), 76ers (1), Celtics (1)
Most times leading the league in defensive efficiency: Magic (5), Wizards (4), Thunder (4), Pistons (3), Nuggets (3)
Most times leading the league in points allowed: Wizards (5), Thunder, Magic, Nuggets (3), Grizzlies/76ers, Bulls (2)
THE MEANING OF IT ALL
So, what can you pull from all of this information? Honestly, probably not as much as I will with these 5 points. There’s context obviously missing here: Injuries, offensive statistics (stay tuned), quality of the competition within divisions/conferences, pace, etc. Really it is just fun to pull statistics sometimes and see where everyone stacks up. More teams have failed to capture a ring after leading the league in defense than have succeeded at it, however just because a team isn’t the league leader doesn’t mean they weren’t great on defense. The average finishes of the champions in points and efficiency (4.28 and 2.52, respectively) which shows that you often need to still have a top-5 defense to finish the fight. The difference between the averages here is understandable. Points allowed generally will have bigger swings because of the difference in pace that teams will play with, but the efficiency rating accounts for that so, the better number required to be elite. The only team to win a title in these seasons that did not finish in the top 5 in defensive efficiency is the Season 39 Nuggets, and looking at it, I still have no clue how they pulled that title out.
The good news for everyone jockeying for a title is that you absolutely do not need to finish at the top of the mountain to be the last team standing. While two teams are fixed in the top-2 places this season (Grizzlies and Lakers simply swap places at 1 and 2), there is hope for teams like Chicago, Boston, Utah, Denver and Indy. Unfortunately for some playoff teams, these numbers suggest your ceiling is incredibly low this season. The Dallas Mavericks are likely to grab a 6 or 7 seed in these playoffs but are also dead last in both points allowed and defensive efficiency, and I doubt the addition of Canfield fixes all of those leaks (though still a great pick-up).
Some GMs are obviously more in-tune with what it takes to create great defenses. Though gone (for now!), Andy and his Orlando squads dominate the top-10 lists of best defensive performances. That season 41 Magic team was savage. Charlie and X also consistently have the Thunder/Celtics and Wizards ready to wear out other teams by hounding them up and down the court. If you’re new and looking to find some fixes for your own defensive game-planning, you might be smart to take a peek at what kind of defensive sets they choose to run.
To this point in this season we are getting two of the best defensive performances of the past 25 seasons as well. If the Grizzlies and Lakers can maintain their current paces, the Grizzlies would have the lowest points allowed of all of these seasons (91.3) and the Lakers would be the new 3rd overall (96.0). In efficiency, the Lakers (91.6) would topple that Season 41 Magic squad while the Grizzlies would be the new 3rd place (94.7). Once the season is over, I look forward to comparing both of these teams to the great defenses of the past.
And what about the offenses that complemented these defenses you may ask?
Well, I guess you better stay tuned for Season 63 when I can earn more points again!
Or does it?
I have the idea for two articles, however since I will reach my media point cap once I post this, the other side of this article will have to be completed in Season 63, where I will have another season’s worth of data to compare/contrast. What I want to explore here is what correlation having the league’s best offense and/or defense has towards the goal of winning the championship. For the purposes of this article, there will be two team statistics which I will be leaning on: Points and efficiency on both sides of the court. There will be plenty of context missing without going deeper, however that would take a long time. Instead, if I find a team particularly interesting, I might dive further into how the team got to those rankings.
Let’s go season-by-season.
DEFENSE
Season 61, 2050-2051
Champion: Boston Celtics (4th in defensive efficiency, 7th in points allowed)
Defensive efficiency leader: Washington Wizards, 97.6
Points allowed leader: Memphis Grizzlies, 99.9
-The Celtics were a powerhouse, winning 70 games, and while they did not lead the league in the defensive categories, they were the best team defense in points per shot allowed. The leaders here were not 1 seeds, but still were 2 and 3 in their conference, with the Grizz getting the conference finals but losing to the Bulls in 7 games.
Season 60, 2049-2050
Champion: Detroit Pistons (1st, 2nd)
Defensive efficiency leader: Detroit Pistons & Washington Wizards, 98.8
Points allowed leader: Washington Wizards, 99.4
Season 59, 2048-2049
Champion: Detroit Pistons (1st, 1st)
Defensive efficiency leader: Detroit Pistons, 98.7
Points allowed leader: Detroit Pistons, 99.8
Season 58, 2047-2048
Champion: Detroit Pistons (1st, 1st)
Defensive efficiency leader: Detroit Pistons, 98.3
Points allowed leader: Detroit Pistons, 100.1
Season 57, 2046-2047
Champion: Detroit Pistons (2nd, 2nd)
Defensive efficiency leader: Milwaukee Bucks, 99.1
Points allowed leader: Denver Nuggets, 101.9
-I will just give a quick note about the Pistons and their 4-peat. They destroyed teams on the defensive end throughout this run. This is the best collection of talent we’ve seen to this point in the entire league and their defensive prowess was no small part of that.
Season 56, 2045-2046
Champion: Chicago Bulls (3rd, 5th)
Defensive efficiency leader: Orlando Magic, 98.6
Points allowed leader: Washington Wizards, 102.7
Season 55, 2044-2045
Champion: Chicago Bulls (3rd, 9th)
Defensive efficiency leader: Oklahoma City Thunder, 98.2
Points allowed leader: Los Angeles Lakers (Jon’s version), 97.8
-This starts (or ends since these are Josh’s last championships to this point) an interesting pattern for Josh. He has 7 championships during these 25 seasons which I’m looking up and only once did his defense lead the league in both primary stats and one other time, he got first in one of them. He may be the most resourceful GM we have.
Season 54, 2043-2044
Champion: Philadelphia 76ers (Now Grizzlies) (4th, 3rd)
Defensive efficiency leader: Oklahoma City Thunder, 97.8
Points allowed leader: Oklahoma City Thunder, 99.5
Season 53, 2042-2043
Champion: San Antonio Spurs (4th, 8th)
Defensive efficiency leader: Oklahoma City Thunder, 100.3
Points allowed leader: Oklahoma City Thunder, 99.8
-Back-to-back seasons with Charlie’s Thunder dominating the league on the defensive end but coming up short in the finals. By his own admission he probably did not give these rosters quite enough help offensively to pair with his dominant defense.
Season 52, 2041-2042
Champion: Chicago Bulls (3rd, 6th)
Defensive efficiency leader: Los Angeles Clippers (Me!), 99.5
Points allowed leader: Los Angeles Clippers, 99.7
-My most heartbreaking season …. Moving on.
Season 51, 2040-2041
Champion: San Antonio Spurs (1st, 12th)
Defensive efficiency leader: San Antonio Spurs, 101.9
Points allowed leader: Chicago Bulls, 104.3
Season 50, 2039-2040
Champion: Chicago Bulls (1st, 1st)
Defensive efficiency leader: Chicago Bulls, 98.1
Points allowed leader: Chicago Bulls, 101.5
-Josh’s one clean sweep and it was one hell of a season.
Season 49, 2038-2039
Champion: Chicago Bulls (1st, 2nd)
Defensive efficiency leader: Chicago Bulls, 101.9
Points allowed leader: Detroit Pistons, 104.7
Season 48, 2037-2038
Champion: Denver Nuggets (1st, 1st)
Defensive efficiency leader: Denver Nuggets, 100.9
Points allowed leader: Denver Nuggets, 103.5
Season 47, 2036-2037
Champion: Washington Wizards (1st, 1st)
Defensive efficiency leader: Washington Wizards, 96.9
Points allowed leader: Washington Wizards, 97.8
Season 46, 2035-2036
Champion: Chicago Bulls (2nd, 3rd)
Defensive efficiency leader: Los Angeles Clippers, 101.8
Points allowed leader: Washington Wizards, 104.7
Season 45, 2034-2035
Champion: Los Angeles Clippers (3rd, 7th)
Defensive efficiency leader: Denver Nuggets, 99.2
Points allowed leader: Denver Nuggets, 101.2
-I caught some mighty breaks in this run to my one and only championship. I was not a 1 or 2 seed, as I did not even win my division because of Josh. I avoided the other two top teams in the conference because of injury (Pauly’s Pacers) and perhaps the biggest upset I’ve seen in my time here (Mavs over the Bulls).
Season 44, 2033-2034
Champion: Sacramento Kings (4th, 8th)
Defensive efficiency leader: Los Angeles Clippers, 97.8
Points allowed leader: Los Angeles Clippers, 104.7
-In hindsight, another big upset as I had a dominate team that season on both sides. However, it was the first time I got a taste of how much matchups can matter and how uphill a battle it can be for anyone in a 7-game series when the other team has the best PG in the game and a big size advantage.
Season 43, 2032-2033
Champion: Toronto Raptors (2nd, 2nd)
Defensive efficiency leader: Oklahoma City Thunder, 98.6
Points allowed leader: Oklahoma City Thunder, 101.9
Season 42, 2031-2032
Champion: Chicago Bulls (5th, 5th)
Defensive efficiency leader: Orlando Magic, 94.3
Points allowed leader: Orlando Magic, 96.4
-Josh would likely fully admit that this is only his championship because of terrible injury luck for Andy’s Magic leading up to this Finals (and it still went 7). Boban, the game’s best player at the time, missed the Finals which stopped the Magic’s 3-peat. Orlando was amazing on defense in all three of these seasons but funnily enough, this was their masterpiece and it was not rewarded with a title. On top of leading the league in these categories, they were also tops in opponent FG%, 3PT%, points per shot and adjusted FG%.
Season 41, 2030-2031
Champion: Orlando Magic (1st, 1st)
Defensive efficiency leader: Orlando Magic, 96.2
Points allowed leader: Orlando Magic, 98.9
Season 40, 2029-2030
Champion: Orlando Magic (1st, 1st)
Defensive efficiency leader: Orlando Magic, 96.3
Points allowed leader: Orlando Magic, 99.2
Season 39, 2028-2029
Champion: Denver Nuggets (9th, 4th)
Defensive efficiency leader: Washington Wizards & Orlando Magic, 100.8
Points allowed leader: Washington Wizards, 102.2
Season 38, 2027-2028
Champion: Milwaukee Bucks (1st, 10th)
Defensive efficiency leader: Milwaukee Bucks, 100.1
Points allowed leader: Philadelphia 76ers, 101.6
Season 37, 2026-2027
Champion: San Antonio Spurs (4th, 5th)
Defensive efficiency leader: Denver Nuggets, 97.3
Points allowed leader: Sacramento Kings, 95.3
TOP 10s
POINTS ALLOWED
1. Season 36 Kings: 95.3 points
2. Season 41 Orlando Magic: 96.4 points
3. Season 41 Minnesota Timberwolves: 96.9 points
4. Season 55 Los Angeles Lakers: 97.8 points
5. Season 47 Washington Wizards, 97.8 points
6. Season 36 Denver Nuggets: 97.9 points
7. Season 40 Orlando Magic: 98.9 points
8. Season 39 Orlando Magic: 99.2 points
9. Season 47 Orlando Magic: 99.3 points
10. Season 60 Washington Wizards: 99.4 points
DEFENSIVE EFFICIENCY
1. Season 41 Orlando Magic: 94.3
2. Season 40 Orlando Magic: 96.2
3. Season 39 Orlando Magic: 96.3
4. Season 41 Minnesota Timberwolves: 96.9
4. Season 47 Washington Wizards: 96.9
6. Season 36 Denver Nuggets: 97.3
7. Season 61 Washington Wizards: 97.6
8. Season 54 Oklahoma City Thunder: 97.8
8. Season 43 Los Angeles Clippers: 97.8
10. Season 41 Minnesota Timberwolves: 98.0
FUN FACTS
Number of teams who have won the championship after finishing first in both categories: 7
Number of teams who have NOT won the championship after finishing first in both categories: 9
Number of teams who have won the championship without finishing first in either category: 14 (So, 11 needed 1st in at least one category to win it all)
Three teams have failed to win the championship multiple times after finishing first in both: Thunder (3), Clippers (2), Wizards (2)
Average champion defensive efficiency rating: 2.52
Average champion points against rating: 4.28
Champion breakdown: Bulls (7), Pistons (4), Spurs (3), Magic (2), Nuggets (2), Kings (1), Raptors (1), Clippers (1), 76ers (1), Celtics (1)
Most times leading the league in defensive efficiency: Magic (5), Wizards (4), Thunder (4), Pistons (3), Nuggets (3)
Most times leading the league in points allowed: Wizards (5), Thunder, Magic, Nuggets (3), Grizzlies/76ers, Bulls (2)
THE MEANING OF IT ALL
So, what can you pull from all of this information? Honestly, probably not as much as I will with these 5 points. There’s context obviously missing here: Injuries, offensive statistics (stay tuned), quality of the competition within divisions/conferences, pace, etc. Really it is just fun to pull statistics sometimes and see where everyone stacks up. More teams have failed to capture a ring after leading the league in defense than have succeeded at it, however just because a team isn’t the league leader doesn’t mean they weren’t great on defense. The average finishes of the champions in points and efficiency (4.28 and 2.52, respectively) which shows that you often need to still have a top-5 defense to finish the fight. The difference between the averages here is understandable. Points allowed generally will have bigger swings because of the difference in pace that teams will play with, but the efficiency rating accounts for that so, the better number required to be elite. The only team to win a title in these seasons that did not finish in the top 5 in defensive efficiency is the Season 39 Nuggets, and looking at it, I still have no clue how they pulled that title out.
The good news for everyone jockeying for a title is that you absolutely do not need to finish at the top of the mountain to be the last team standing. While two teams are fixed in the top-2 places this season (Grizzlies and Lakers simply swap places at 1 and 2), there is hope for teams like Chicago, Boston, Utah, Denver and Indy. Unfortunately for some playoff teams, these numbers suggest your ceiling is incredibly low this season. The Dallas Mavericks are likely to grab a 6 or 7 seed in these playoffs but are also dead last in both points allowed and defensive efficiency, and I doubt the addition of Canfield fixes all of those leaks (though still a great pick-up).
Some GMs are obviously more in-tune with what it takes to create great defenses. Though gone (for now!), Andy and his Orlando squads dominate the top-10 lists of best defensive performances. That season 41 Magic team was savage. Charlie and X also consistently have the Thunder/Celtics and Wizards ready to wear out other teams by hounding them up and down the court. If you’re new and looking to find some fixes for your own defensive game-planning, you might be smart to take a peek at what kind of defensive sets they choose to run.
To this point in this season we are getting two of the best defensive performances of the past 25 seasons as well. If the Grizzlies and Lakers can maintain their current paces, the Grizzlies would have the lowest points allowed of all of these seasons (91.3) and the Lakers would be the new 3rd overall (96.0). In efficiency, the Lakers (91.6) would topple that Season 41 Magic squad while the Grizzlies would be the new 3rd place (94.7). Once the season is over, I look forward to comparing both of these teams to the great defenses of the past.
And what about the offenses that complemented these defenses you may ask?
Well, I guess you better stay tuned for Season 63 when I can earn more points again!