Season 51 Draft Evaluation Based on Available Numbers
Posted: Fri Mar 19, 2021 3:46 pm
Hey all,
I did an excel sheet a few seasons back to find value in what would eventually lead to me trading up to draft Makur Maker (He was the highest rated prospect according to the spreadsheet and I drafted him at #4 I think). So I thought it would be interesting to do the same thing in this draft to see who the best prospects were again. The spreadsheet ranks the prospects by current, potential and then combined.
The top player by currents is Eli Rains, who is a Y/Y player who is probably a bench guard who can pass right after the draft, who just happens to also have the highest current value. There is not much long term value from him. The top "potential" player based on assigning numeric values to their potential letters is Frank Marchetti. He is a O/B SF that is very young and very raw. I am surprised to see him top the potentials with the amount of D's he has on the list, but his offensive talents and how young he is will for sure lure someone to
pick him and bet on his development. Then the top player by total points, based on two previous categories of current and potential, is Eli Rains again.
A few things of note. The top two prospects according to this evaluation are two Y/Y players, which I think is because it places too much weight on the current values and not enough on the potential values. After those two outliers, the top prospect is Poche who the Bucks took with the number one pick. I also saw that Graig Twilley is ranked second to last. Twilley wound up being the second pick in this draft. After looking at Graig Twilley's player page, I agree that he should have been the second player, and an argument could have been made he was the best prospect with the traits he has.
Anyways, please take a look at the spreadsheet attached and hopefully it might help the remaining teams left to draft pick someone. Also, im not a stats guy, so let me know if you have any recommendations to improve it so that it can better predict players, and avoid outliers like Rains at the top again.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing
I did an excel sheet a few seasons back to find value in what would eventually lead to me trading up to draft Makur Maker (He was the highest rated prospect according to the spreadsheet and I drafted him at #4 I think). So I thought it would be interesting to do the same thing in this draft to see who the best prospects were again. The spreadsheet ranks the prospects by current, potential and then combined.
- PBSL Draft_S51.png (56.75 KiB) Viewed 353 times
pick him and bet on his development. Then the top player by total points, based on two previous categories of current and potential, is Eli Rains again.
A few things of note. The top two prospects according to this evaluation are two Y/Y players, which I think is because it places too much weight on the current values and not enough on the potential values. After those two outliers, the top prospect is Poche who the Bucks took with the number one pick. I also saw that Graig Twilley is ranked second to last. Twilley wound up being the second pick in this draft. After looking at Graig Twilley's player page, I agree that he should have been the second player, and an argument could have been made he was the best prospect with the traits he has.
Anyways, please take a look at the spreadsheet attached and hopefully it might help the remaining teams left to draft pick someone. Also, im not a stats guy, so let me know if you have any recommendations to improve it so that it can better predict players, and avoid outliers like Rains at the top again.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing