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THROWBACK PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS AKA THE LAZY STATISTICIAN CRACKS THE CODE FOR A PERFECT ARTICLE

Posted: Thu Mar 04, 2021 11:49 am
by garbageman
THROWBACK PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS AKA THE LAZY STATISTICIAN CRACKS THE CODE FOR A PERFECT ARTICLE

With the window for media entry of the year nominations closing, we join our lazy statistician as he uses anecdotal evidence and trend forecasting to regurgitate his findings in time for someone to nominate this article. I get a shot at points, you get a point, and everybody wins. Could it be you? Would you still do it if I wimp out and just make this playoff predictions article just apply to round one? I mean, the media entry of the year front runner is already just the first part of a series, and as last year has proved, people love their playoff predictions. Last season, the nominees were two different playoff prediction articles and one obligatory Horns and Fangs nomination.

But what do people love more than playoff predictions? They love articles that peer back in time to the history of PBSL, when we were all younger, freer. When the pencil sharpener of life hadn't ground us down ever closer to the eraser. When the first orangepink hue pierces the sky and you can see a sliver of nightfall on the horizon for the very first time. The sun glinting off the reaper's scythe.

Shit. I'm losing you with all these sentence fragments and poorly constructed metaphors, aren't I? No time to go back and edit them out, though. I'm not about to delete points.

Anyway, I was doing some lazy statistics, and I figured that if people love articles about the good ol' days, and people love playoff predictions, I'm going to give the people what they want: playoff predictions based solely on the last time each team met in the playoffs. Whoever won their last meeting advances.


FIRST ROUND



#2 76ers vs. #7 Wizards

The last time these two teams met in the playoffs was pretty recent: 2036-2037. The 76ers had the same core 3 of Wiseman, Toppin, and Winston, although the three of them are much different players with a few more years of development. The Wiz came off a bye round from being 1st in the conference during the peak years of Quintin Kidd and Tony Cucone. The 76ers core was just too young, and Kidd tore through the playoffs to lead the Wizards to their first ever ring. Though the shoe's on the other foot this time around with Wiseman at his peak and the Wizards relying on players who probably would have a hard time against the 2036-2037 Sixers, they're not called the BAD old days. That's how days work. The ol'er they are, the better.

WINNER: WIZARDS


#4 Spurs vs. #5 Magic

Same year, different side of the bracket. We're still in 2036-2037, and where the Wizards beat the 76ers to move on to the conference finals, the #2 Magic and #3 Spurs were battling in parallel. Just one game off of each other in the regular season, the Magic had the benefit of an easier division. Shoutout to my Johnson alum...they'll remember the struggle! Anyway, this was a Spurs team with both Yandell and Lewis. Neither was purple/purple yet, but they were both close and putting up big numbers (Yandell averaged a points-assists double-double, and Lewis was at almost 29 PPG). The Magic's big guns were Richard Hunt and Joshua Schumann, who looked both a step behind in the stat sheets and the play-by-plays on the year and in the series. The Spurs won in 6.

WINNER: SPURS


#3 Clippers vs. #6 Jazz

Hop into the Delorean and set the dial back just one year, because the Jazz somehow made the playoffs in the 2035-2036 season with Gary asleep at the wheel. Both teams were 50-32, and the Jazz got the #4 seed and home court after winning the season series. They still had Bias and Washington -- two guys with similar names and a similar disposition for raining buckets from the guard spots. They were in potential contract years since the Gary didn't pay his taxes. The Clippers were all about Glen Sabo. They still got a lot of good production out of Colby Lopez, too, but beyond that, they had a roster that--while blue to the eye--was in transition. Sterner wasn't there yet, and most of their blue players were solid roleplayers, but not game changers. In a series that Mamba probably would like to forget, the Jazz won in 5. The Jazz have an active GM now, and while he's a GM that imagined this season would be more successful than they actually were, the playoffs are all that matter now.

WINNER: JAZZ


#4 Pacers vs. #5 Thunder

This matchup takes us back to a 2nd round series from 2030-2031. Both teams were ranked two seeds better that season, and it went to game 7. Not a lot of names that will mean anything to new folks, and not anybody HOF-caliber on either squad (we'll get to that in a sec), but who remembers guys like Van Grimaldi, Devin Booker, and Ben Simmons or on the other side, James O'Connor, Damion Williams, and pre-broken-leg Pete Maravich with the potential to be an even better version of Daniel Yandell? In any case, this was in the golden age of Boban. You see, back in the day, training used to be less complex, but more costly and less effective, so nobody used it. We were too busy having to pay for insurance so our players wouldn't die. Then, Wig proposed a rookie contract training, which was very short lived before retiring that in lieu of a complex system that is pretty close to what we have today. Andy's plan to build a Boban was unlike anything the league had seen. He'd proven a master in gathering assets...points, picks...and he spent them all making a generational talent. He also made other savvy moves to team Boban up with Josh Jackson and Bronny James. It was a three purp roster in the days where most playoff teams didn't even have one. Nobody else had fun. The Pacers won the series, by the way.

WINNER: PACERS


#2 Kings vs. #7 Rockets

Like most other ghosts of series past so far, the 2023-2024 meeting between the 51-31 Kings and the 44-38 Rockets was a 2nd round contest, but the Rockets only claimed their 3 seed by virtue of leading their trash division, and actually had the 5th best record in the conference. Back in those days, the divisions were aligned like the real NBA and most of the players were real, even if they were future versions of themselves. The Rockets had Kemba Walker, Aaron Gordon, and the ageless wonder, Al Horford, who was averaging 17 and 10 with 3 blocks per game at 38. The Kings, however, were a younger squad, and their big 3 were all from the new fangled draft files (although we had a couple NBA renames). They were Donovan Mitchell, Buddy Hield, and their big stud, the 7'2 Erik Haynes. Haynes averaged a much more menacing double double than Al Horford at 24 and 11.5 with 4 blocks a game (almost Matthew O'Connor level). It should be noted that there were 5 blue current players on both teams combined, and this was a 2nd round series. Nowadays, we've got teams with more blues and purple than that making it just as far. In any case, the Rockets got swept, 4-0, proving once and for all that the real players just weren't that good.

WINNER: KINGS


#3 Timberwolves vs. #6 Nuggets

Our final first round match takes us back one year prior, to the 2022-2023 season. Since we're using the actual divisions here, the Nuggets and T-Wolves have grown very familiar with each other over the years. This year, though, Raby had put together one of his finest teams. His defensive frontcourt of Rudy Gobert and Thomas Robinson was the perfect complement to peak Andrew Wiggins, who at over 32 points per game was the 2nd best player in the league. The Nuggets had Jrue, OPJ, and Paul George, but they were just a little too past their primes to topple AW and the TWs (also of note, JW--Jerry West--was a 20 year old g/b for the Nugs at the time--he'd go on to do great things). The Wolves went on that season to the Finals to face the Pistons--and OP Anthony Davis, the best player in the league, who was more dominant than Boban (but perhaps only because of the way team building had evolved over time and overall league talent got better). Wolves swept them, putting them away in a 1 point game 4 where Andrew Wiggins dropped a 50 piece and the rest was history.

WINNER: TIMBERWOLVES



ROUND 2

#1 Lakers vs. #4 Pacers

The last time these teams met in the playoffs, the roles were reversed. The Pacers were coming off a bye, so it wasn't that long ago: 2034-2035. The Lakers still had Delmar Lopez, and the Pacers got that top seed thanks in large part to prime De'Aaron Fox. Only problem is, Fox was injured, and the Pacers hadn't broke bad and decided to go into the tax yet, so they didn't have (or think they needed) a stacked squad surrounding him. I guess there was one other problem. I <expletive deleted> up the archiving and did not get the final save of the year on the /2034 site. I do know, though, that the Lakers made the Finals that year in an LA vs. LA battle, so they must've closed out against the Pacers.

WINNER: LAKERS


#1 Bulls vs. #4 Spurs

We find ourselves back in 2030-2031--the Boban era--and in round 1, it wasn't even close. While a lot of teams weren't having fun with the Magic having a record 75-7 season, one other team was stocking up for war against them--the Bulls. If you compare them to this year's Bulls, you'll see a few familiar traits. Both teams feature Silky Johnson and Wanderlei Silva. Both teams had 70+ wins (the 2030-2031 Bulls finished a 2nd best ever (T) 74-8). You'll see some similarities between the 2030-2031 Spurs and current Spurs too...mainly, a rebuilding team that kept their P/P Point Guard. BDJ was that iteration's Yandell, but they finished 30 games behind the Bulls and only managed to eke out one win in the series.

WINNER: BULLS


#2 Kings vs. #3 Timberwolves

We just have to go back to the last time the Wolves and Kings were in the same conference to find their last playoff meeting--2026-2027. If you time travel back up this article, you'll see that the Kings team that beat the Rockets a few years prior was pretty much the same...just a few year's more developed. The T-Wolves were drastically different. They were the 6th seed that season, and a far cry from their championship days. They were a deep but starless team, ready to move on from Nassir Little with an eye towards the future and o/b rookie Modestine Degrimonpon slated to take that torch. Kings won this matchup 4-2 in the first round, so they move on in this article.

WINNER: KINGS


#2 76ers vs. #6 Jazz

In the history of the league, unless I missed something, which is highly, HIGHLY possible, these two teams have never faced off in the postseason. Guess that creates a fork in the timeline, huh?

WINNER: ???



CONFERENCE FINALS

#1 Lakers vs. #2 76ers or #6 Jazz

So this weird triangle has us traveling to two different seasons. The first wasn't that long ago. Last season, the 76ers upset the Lakers in the 1st round, and since it just happened, we don't have to dig too deep there. We'll save that deep digging to time travel a long, long time ago...back to 2003, when the Lakers faced the Jazz, and I wasn't even in the league yet. It was a time before fake players (but you wouldn't know that if you just had a list of names...Dedric Willoughby anyone?), and both teams had GMs who aren't around anymore (save for the occassional chat pop-in from Tray or CPrej's short lived return with the now defunct Warriors). The Lakers team looked really strong that year with a nice 69 wins and a roster including Jason Kidd, Kevin Garnett, Keith Van Horn, and Larry Hughes. The Jazx didn't have as much, but they did have league MVP Tim Duncan. To their credit, the Jazz put up the most resistance to the Lakers, dragging that series to 6. From there on out, the Lakers plowed through the rest of the competition, going 4-1 in the semis, Conference Finals, and Finals to wear the hardware.

So where does that leave us in this three way dance? The Lakers beat the Jazz, but the 76ers beat the Lakers, and we don't know if the Jazz would've beat the 76ers to give us some f-ed up version of Rock, Paper, Scissors with concepts instead of objects you can throw with your hands. But if the 76ers could beat the Jazz, I think that makes them the undisputed choice for this predictions article. The truth lies somewhere in between, I'd suppose, but the result to me remains the same, albeit asterisked. We have no choice but to assume the 76ers will emerge from this, even if it starts to tug at the threads on the edges of the tapestry of time. At least the GMs from 76ers/Lakers are the same, and at least we figured this out.

WINNER: 76ERS


#1 Bulls vs. #2 Kings

These teams have never faced off in the playoffs either? You gotta be kidding me.

WINNER: ???


FINALS

#1 Bulls or #2 Kings vs. #2 76ers

Now, first things first. It doesn't appear that the Kings and the 76ers have ever faced off in the playoffs. NOLa has more total wins than any GM in PBSL regular season history, and who the heck has he even played in the playoffs? And the same can be said about the 76ers. While K100 hasn't been around a long time, ballsohard had a very successful run with the 76ers, winning 2 rings with them in 24 or 25 seasons. Still, the 76ers haven't faced the Kings or the Jazz in the postseason. At least this gives us a chance to still make history after 50 seasons. However, it doesn't provide us with a prediction. Guess that only leaves us with one more option.

The year is 2020. Well, the year is 2021, but it's from the pbsl.ijbl.net/2020 archived page, so let's call it 2020 for simplicity's sake...even though as I'm writing this it's actually 2021.

Anyway, my sim-fingers are naked. I've been a GM about 10 seasons, and after inheriting a long neglected Bulls team and spending a sim-decade figuring out the game, I've finally put together a solid team anchored around Russell Westbrook. Meanwhile, my conference final opponent is ballsohard, a veteran GM whose already won 4 championships. He's building his team around the renamed Ben Simmons, the renamed Markelle Fultz, and the man with a name too pristine to be renamed, Van Grimaldi...the Grim Reaper...the Van Down By The River...the Discount Grocery Store.

But despite having a youth movement coming up fast, the 76ers were no match for the 2020 Bulls, a team that helped normalize having blue players in every starting spot back in the day where most rostered players were yellow and still got playing time. They won 4-2 to move on to the finals and sweep the wildcard-led Jazz, getting me my first ring and fueling the hunger to collect even more rings, even though nowadays it's just not as impressive to win a PBSL Championship when people don't love the game so much that they're willing to put it over real life friendships. Seriously, what's even the point?

Anyway, fun fact...on the Western Conference Finals in the 2020-2021 season, the Kings were just a hair away from making it to the Finals against the Bulls, losing in game 7 to the Jazz with y/y Patrick Patterson as their starting PF (who got absolutely reamed by a 39 point Joseph Kight performance).

In any case, I hate to end a playoff predictions article by picking myself, but if you think about it, really the past predicted me, so this is more fate than a stroke of ego.

WINNER: BULLS

Re: THROWBACK PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS AKA THE LAZY STATISTICIAN CRACKS THE CODE FOR A PERFECT ARTICLE

Posted: Thu Mar 04, 2021 4:37 pm
by Darth Vegito
:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

This was great Josh...Needed a good article before the playoffs!

Re: THROWBACK PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS AKA THE LAZY STATISTICIAN CRACKS THE CODE FOR A PERFECT ARTICLE

Posted: Thu Mar 04, 2021 5:35 pm
by garbageman
POST SCRIPT

So I did rip a hole in the time continuum, and the 76ers, despite losing round 1, continued to break through. Let's see what happened in a potential where I did this properly...


#6 Jazz vs. #7 Wizards

It's 2030-2031, the Jazz are still run by Gary, and they meet the 2nd seed Wizards in the first round of the playoffs. They don't beat the Wiz once. Given xist's past decade as a GM, things are looking up for the Wiz in this alternate timeline.

WINNER: WIZARDS



#1 Lakers vs. #7 Wizards

In 2035-2036, the Wizards came close to winning a championship (more on that later), and the first stop along the way had them ousting a younger Delmar Lopez and the Lakers with a Wiz team very similar to the one that would win the championship a season later.

WINNER: WIZARDS


#1 Bulls or #2 Kings vs. #7 Wizards

In a surprise to nobody, the Kings and Wizards haven't met in the playoffs ever. However, the Wizards and the Bulls have met before, and we can stay in 2035-2036 where the two met in the Finals. I guess you know how this ends already since you know the Wiz didn't win a ring until a season later. It ends how it always ends, with history predicting the Bulls to add another banner to the rafters, another trophy to the case, another ring to the collection, and most importantly, another handful of words to put this article above the 3000 word mark.


WINNER: BULLS

Re: THROWBACK PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS AKA THE LAZY STATISTICIAN CRACKS THE CODE FOR A PERFECT ARTICLE

Posted: Mon Mar 08, 2021 5:26 pm
by false9
+10