#SLOE: People's Basketball Sim League

Nathan Sliver, sevenfortyseven.com:
This past off-season brought about two of the most controversial trades of all time, the Knicks/Bucks reparation trade and the Magic/Sixers Peeler contract dump trade. These two deals were made for very different reasons but were woven from a common thread. The central pieces in these trades that caused such uproar were second round draft picks. This caused me to wonder, what is a second round draft pick really worth? The generally accepted value of a second round pick in the league is essentially nothing. This article seeks to understand the true value of a second round draft pick by analyzing the outcomes of the players drafted in the last 7 second rounds of the draft.

I begin with a very simple question. How many players drafted in the second round over the last seven years are even on an active roster today? Of the 203 second rounders over the last seven years, 40 are on an active roster. If you assume that the general managers of the PBSL are good judges of talent and only employ the best players, then this would infer that a second round draft pick has a 20% of turning out to be useful. Looking at the difference between the average total player attributes of second round draft picks on an active roster and the average total player attributes of unemployed second rounders, it does appear that the GMs are earning their keep. The average active second round draft pick has a total player attribute score of 670, whereas the average inactive second rounder only manages 578. A 92 point difference is nothing to laugh at but this brings us to my next question. . . Are second round draft picks only worthless because GMs make them worthless?

Let's compare the average total attribute score of active and not active second rounders on a pick by pick basis. As you can see, the difference is staggering in almost every case, especially when it comes to the top ten picks. Are GMs really that good at nosing out the winners? Absolutely not. Most owners mindlessly let the computer select a player with their second round pick and cut the player without a second thought. What tends to be forgotten is that these are young players that very well could experience significant growth in training camp. To demonstrate that this actually is the case, let's look at the average player scores of inactive and active second round draft picks on a year by year basis. The inactive second rounders just waste away on the free agency list while the active players grow over the years. At this point, many may be thinking, 'Sure, they grow but that doesn't mean they actually end up being useful.' So let's look at that next. A fairly astounding 43% of active second rounders aren't even in the lowest quartile of players on active rosters when it comes to total attribute score and 1/8th of them are above the 50th percentile. This is particularly interesting when considering that most of these players were drafted by the computer, which doesn't always make the best decisions and with some of the best second round talent has been wasted by being cut automatically.

So, at the end of the day, is a second round draft pick worth anything? The answer is that a second rounder is certainly worth more than they are currently valued by GMs. The first 10 picks of the second round appear to have the potential to be good role players at the absolute best price possible. They are great gambles for a rebuilding team. If one of them goes yellow/green after 1 or 2 training camps they could then be packaged as part of deal to bring in a star. They are also great roster fillers for cap strapped contenders looking to minimize their luxury tax.

Let's go back to the Knicks/Bucks trade before we close. The Bucks are rebuilding so they are currently on pace to land the third pick of the second round, which the computer predicts would be used to draft Fred Jones, who honestly looks like he could be a servicable backup shooting guard. After all the hubub, the Knicks may have been getting the better end of that deal.

So be patient with these young guys and don't get caught undervaluing second round draft picks.

I GOT FUKT AGAIN. DAMN U, SNUG LIFE

Somewhere 42 has an erection and is knocking down glasses on tables swinging it around


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Willing to trade full 10 points for top 10 2nd round pick

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That was true before, during, and after reading this. It's just how I operate...

What you might miss is the guffawing when people realize that the GM's who win titles, at least recently, have not won them with early picks of their own.
Or, is it funnier when others don't.

Early on, there is a creation draft ripple, so I ignore that. Nah, champs win by having chumps draft for them, as near as I can tell at a casual glance.

So, first round picks... Are overvalued?

42PhD wrote:That was true before, during, and after reading this. It's just how I operate...

What you might miss is the guffawing when people realize that the GM's who win titles, at least recently, have not won them with early picks of their own.
Or, is it funnier when others don't.

Early on, there is a creation draft ripple, so I ignore that. Nah, champs win by having chumps draft for them, as near as I can tell at a casual glance.

So, first round picks... Are overvalued?

There's actually a lot of good reasons for that...

1) This league has been fairly trade-happy and quick to push the reset button due to the known decline of the post-30 crowd, the lure of the draft, and the lux tax. That's how Wig was able to assemble his team, and how Balls was able to snag Kidd.

2) This is just starting to change, but for a long time we had numerous absent/fresh-meat GMs who sucked, got a top pick, continued to suck, and eventually got swindled or let the player rot until he declined or left in FA/RFA. This is how Balls grabbed KG.

For the most part, all championship teams in this league have been led by a drafted superstar: Celtics - Zo, Mavs - Penny, Warriors - Kemp. The trick is to build your supporting cast by profiting from those affected by 1 & 2.

EDIT: And that's not even getting into the issue of new GMs coming in, trying to put their own stamp on the team, and unwittingly getting snookered in the process. That's another reason why impact players don't seem to stick around with the team that drafted them for long when looking at the history of this league.

1) One of those was from the creation draft, which I addressed.

2) Those are two examples that led to multiple titles for all the reasons you stated... Which are basically the reason I stated.

3) Asking if a title winner drafted and kept their desirable picks to win a title is very different than looking at how desirable picks help title winners win titles. In your examples, there are often more examples of desirable picks from others teams than simply relying on your own desirable pick and role players.

4) Only a few GM's have won titles. This seems to be a much bigger factor than having a top draft pick.

So, I see this as further proof of my point.

Oh, I wasn't disagreeing with you necessarily, just pointing out some things. You're right, it is strange that people value the actual picks themselves more than the players they draft with them. But, on the other hand it's good to place value on draft picks, because it's how you start. You have to acquire assets to pull off the big deals and land the big fish (who were drafted by GMs who couldn't pull of those deals, and are now forced to look for trades).

So I guess what I'm really trying to say in a roundabout way is that from about #1-#10, picks are in no way, shape, form, or fashion overrated, unless you're in a position where you're better off using it as trade bait (and even then, I've personally been burnt multiple times from foolishly trading picks in rash attempts to "win now"). Every pick from then? Yeah, probably so.

Yeah, didn't take it as a challenge, just "field this." I think talking about a pick in isolation is essentially a bad idea. Same with a player.

There is always context, a plan, and a goal. The fact that picks turn into players but the one is more valuable so widely than the other shows a lack of real context. In this vein, the plan and goal are likely mismatched.

Winning a title is clearly tough, and overly valuing anything is likely an issue, including your players and your plan (not you you).

You also bring up a point about draft positions versus picks. Picks pre-lottery v actual draft slots... Way different (so far as I can tell). Picks pre-lottery is selling a dream, so they are, as a collection, more valuable than the actual draft slots, so it seems to me just watching, looking at old threads.

I KEEP ON FALLIN

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