Player Option Decisions Preview

[TheSyndicate]

With the playoffs rolling on in round two, I thought it might be a good time to look ahead at a subject that has always fascinated me about Sim League, but yet rarely gets written about: Player Options. Player Options have pretty much always existed, but are seldom used as GMs everywhere cling to their power to control their rosters as much as possible. This article takes a look at the impending player options and what the situations are for player/team. I’ll plan a follow-up article for after the off-season where we can revisit some of these decisions and how they worked out!

*Editor’s note – I wrote that intro prior to diving in, and I found that only three players have actual player options for the upcoming season. I do think they are all interesting cases, however, so to earn full points, I’ll dive a little deeper into each situation.

Lavar Ball – Bucks
Age Next Season: 28
Option Value: $28.1m

Background: Lavar is coming off what might possibly be his best year in his age 27 season, averaging 21 points and 6.7 rebounds a game while playing only 31.5 minutes. All of that on 48% shooting adds up to a PER above 20. Were he to enter Free Agency, he would no doubt command a maximum contract which would cover his age 28 through 31 seasons. Lavar is special because of his athleticism and thus, his scoring abilities. His handles are a nice plus, but when his athleticism goes, he may have a fairly quick end-stage of his career.

What the Bucks would like: Lavar is pretty much their answer at the 3. They have no one on the roster to fill that role, so if Lavar opted-out it would leave them with quite a hole, and JUST enough money to fit in one free agency max contract. As the remainder of their core is under contract for the coming year, you’d have to think the Bucks would prefer Lavar to opt IN to close that hole in a guaranteed way so they could compete. Alternatively, he makes an interesting trade piece next year for either additional pieces to build around the Small/Booker age group, or a longer-term option at Forward.

What Lavar SHOULD do: If we figure the cap next year to be around $105m (our assumption moving forward throughout this article), Lavar’s max contract would start at $31.5m/yr. So his gain over the next year would be about $3.4m above what his option would pay. However, after his age 31 season, he would go back to free agency, and if his athleticism has slipped at all he could conceivably go green/green. In this case, he wouldn’t be able to command much more than say $15-18m on a short-term deal as a bench scorer. Obviously, this includes a lot of assumptions, but any time we’re trying to tell the future assumptions are needed, and hey, it’s my article. Given those facts, Lavar should opt IN to the contract for next year, and assuming he doesn’t fall apart in training camp, go on to a max contract in the NEXT season, and make more money overall through his age 32 season.

What Lavar WILL do: Who tf knows? #simleague #beepboop

Andre Drummond – Jazz
Age Next Season: 30
Option Value: $28m

Background: Andre is one of the foremost defensive/rebounding-minded big men in the league. He’s coming off a season exactly in line with his career averages at 8.4 points, 10.6 boards, and 2 blocks per game in 34 minutes. He doesn’t shoot much, but makes his baskets at a 54% clip. Unlike Lavar, Andre is not a shoo-in for a max contract. In fact, you’d have to count it as downright unlikely given the max for his years of service would start around $36.75m and he doesn’t do anything for you offensively except off the glass. He’d make a very welcome addition to just about any competitive team’s front-court, but not at that kind of cost.

What the Jazz would like: This is difficult to say, and predicting anything Gary would do is never an easy task. If he opted in, the Jazz would be approximately $31m over the cap next year, and that’s before resigning impending RFA JR Johnson, who just had the most assists in the first round of the playoffs. They owe 80 points in luxury tax, which is convenient because that’s about exactly how much they have in their bank. Assuming they’ll bank at least 70-80 points from this season and next, that puts them a whole lot short of next year’s potential tax bill. If he DOESN’T opt in, the Jazz would be at the cap, but with only 5 players under contract including yellow/yellow Joseph Hammond who played a whole 324 minutes this entire season. Either way, the Jazz are going to need to make some moves next year to remain financially solvent, or they will go the way of the Bobcats and Grizzlies.

What Andre SHOULD do: I don’t think it’s a shock to anyone that this writer doesn’t see Andre getting over $28m/yr on the open market. Defense might win championships, but it doesn’t make billionaires. Andre’s next contract will probably somewhere between 25%-50% lower AAV than the option year, unless a team desperate for defense and long on cap space takes a chance on a short-term lucrative deal. In short, Andre should take dat cash while he can get it.

Paul George – Nuggets
Age Next Season: 33
Option Value: $17.85m

Background: PG13 has definitely slowed a step or three since his prime putting up numbers below his career averages in each of the last two seasons. He still is a beast of a forward, who can score from anywhere, rebound, pass, and defend. On the open market, his projected contract would be hard to peg. Owners thinking he can stave off the TC monster to remain a productive player in his age 33 season may well pony up some dough on a 1-year deal, and he’s certainly a great complimentary piece on a winning team, if not a superstar anymore.

What the Nuggets would like: The Nuggets have 3 players under contract for next season, with George being the potential 4th. They have good options at the SG and SF spots, and a solid, if unspectacular offensive-minded option at the center position. They have room for George, both in salary and minutes, and probably wouldn’t mind if he exercised his option. However, this core came up painfully short in this year’s first round losing in 5 games to an excellent Minnesota team. A Paul George another year older probably isn’t a needle mover, and the Nuggets would be better served using the cap space on younger more long-term pieces.

What George SHOULD do: Like the other two examples, George should probably opt-in. While it’s possible he could score a multi-year deal from a team with some space, there’s no guarantee he’d get the salary he’s currently making. This is nowhere near the open-shut case that Andre Drummond is, but more nuanced. He may not have an opportunity to make more money elsewhere, but he may have a better shot at his third title.

[digiskunk]

5 points!