Maybe it is just my interest in the Pacific Division Race this year (don't know why that is), but I decided to return to my roots and throw together a strength of schedule analysis like back in the day.
To explain what I did:
1. Pulled remaining schedule for all potential division winners.
2. Manipulated the standings table to give wins & losses columns for both road and home records.
3. If the team played the opponent at home, then the opponent's away record was considered. If the team played the opponent on the road, then the opponent's home record was considered. This value is represented in the 'Opp. Rec. @ Home/Away' column.
Now the Table:
Analysis:
1. Atlantic - The Celtics lead in the Atlantic would at first appear safe from the Nets and Heat with only the Knicks holding the true threat, but NOT SO FAST MY FRIEND! The Knicks have the hardest schedule remaining in both opponent records considered here. Because of that I see them falling to 4th in the division. The Nets and Heat have cake walk schedules in comparison to the Celtics and Knicks. It is not out of the realm of possibility that the Nets overtake the Celtics. In addition all teams are healthy. I don't have many bold predictions left on this article, but it's going to be here:
1. Nets
2. Celtics
3. Heat
4. Knicks
2. Central - I just added this one as a technicality. Bucks have a 5.5 game lead and a much weaker schedule in the 'Opp. Rec. @ Home/Away' column. The Bucks should be able to sleepwalk through April to the Central title and #1 seed which will be the only sleeping that Doug will be doing anytime soon.
1. Bucks
2. Hawks
3. Midwest - There will be a little bit of a shuffle here, but not at the top spot. Grizzlies are looking at the second weakest schedules in each column with a 3.5 game cushion. However, the two-time defending champs should vault the Spurs with almost a 20-point easier opponent record in the '@ Home/Away' column.
1. Grizzlies
2. Nuggets
3. Spurs
4. Pacific - Last but not least, the inspiration for this entire article. The Sonics currently sit atop the division by a half game over the Kings. They have what is the easiest strength of schedule remaining on the board and a severe likelihood to claim the crown in April. The Kings and Lakers share similar strengths of schedule, but that 2-game lead is going to be tough. The Clippers have moved from one injury to the next and need to forget the division race and focus on getting healthy. I think the main takeaway here is that the Sonics losing the division would be a huge choke job at this point. They are playing the tankiest of opponents. Any of them stealing games against the Sonics would be attributed to supernatural influences. Let's hope for all of our sanity that they are able to seal the deal...
1. Sonics
2. Kings
3. Lakers
4. Clippers
And that's it for the divisions. If I have the time, I'll do a little work on the key playoff seedings. Best of luck to all not named Darth.
Back in the day, I won the division a few times...
