Is 30 too old for sim league? Well that question isn't fair, because all 30 year olds are not created equal. And furthermore not all players are created equal in general based on player positions. For example, a 30 year old big man with high traits of offense/rebounding/blocking will last longer as an effective big into his 30s because the biggest attribute that declines in the early 30s is athleticism.
A guard whose game is predicted on athleticism will deteriorate quicker because athleticism is more impactful to their game. That is a very low level overview of the difference. HOWEVER let's get into a more high level and granular view of this.
Let's look at two glaring shocked situations. The first being Ware, no one has submitted an offer to trade for the best big man in the league, why because he's 30? Well take a look at what this 30 year old actually is. He’s a purple/purple big man who has extremely high traits in, Inside, Off rebounding and shot blocking. How high is extremely high? Well all 3 of those stats are over 100. What does this mean exactly? It means as Ware gets older, his current rating for those stats will take longer to come down. Every TC the older players lose a bit, well he has a lot to lose. Think of it as a bank account. Ware’s currents are his checking account and his futures are his savings account. His savings account is very high thus funding his checking account to also be high. Until his savings deplete, his checking will continue to stay high. Ware will likely be a great talent into his mid 30s because his savings are so high. And we talk about the difference in types of players. Look at Ware’s athleticism traits, his quickness are a 17 and jumping is 27 while he’s still Purple/Purple. More on his contract and how that factors into him a little later but first Exhibit A….
- Exhibit A
- ware.PNG (185.61 KiB) Viewed 152 times
Now one would have to ask themselves, do you really think these players are going to be bad in the next couple of years? 30 is a fair number to assume that TC will start to be unkind to your players, however we need to take that as a guide and not as bible. Also, Ware and JD are so good that there's nothing TC can do to them in a single off-season that would make them not playable, or not worth their contracts over the next couple of seasons. They will still be one of the most productive players at their position. Ware will be 1 with quick very narrowly behind. JD and Bricker will continue to fight for the best PG spot with alvarado. It's wild to see that people are this turned off by age while not looking at the bigger picture. The bigger picture is, not all players are created equal. Some of these players like ware and JD are way out ahead of the field and it will take years for them to be "bad players". Also if you deep dive into ware, he's a player who already lacks athleticism and that does nothing against his game. So a guy with over 100 stats in multiple categories will need time to come down and become a bad player. Even if he loses his purple. Montoya comes to mind. A guy who was very productive into his mid to late 30s.
Let’s dive into the contracts of both of these players. Ware is currently the best big man in the league and is making 95M with 1 year left on his deal. That final year is at 101M and will be at age 31. Is there anyone in the league that think’s Ware isn’t worth his contract? Well I guess we can say there’s a lot of people that think this way, as the Bucks did not receive a single trade offer for Ware during the offseason. What scares the people away? Is it the money or the age? I’m here to say that neither should have kept a contender away from Ware as he’s by far the best big man in the league and well worth the contract. Ware is the reason the Bucks have a good approval rating which allowed them to beat out powerhouses in FA to land Blaze. Ware will laugh all the way to 1st team, and another dominant season at Center.
Johnny is a little bit different as at 31 Johnny is where Ware will be in 2 years. Getting his 4th contract later in his career. Johnny was just signed to a 4 year team option max contract. Johnny will also be a phenomenal player this season and for the next few seasons but even Johnny is no Ware. The best thing the Magic could have done was offer him a Team option in year 4 and they did just that. Johnny is the first player in our Sim league History to start a max contract at the 100M mark. Congrats JD, you too are worth it.
I’d like to make some side comments about the state of the league and the direction we are headed. It seems as though folks are afraid of the age 30 players because historically these players have begun their descent into being “just another guy” at their position. What isn’t being taken into account is player training. This especially holds true to the guys who have been around for a long time. Unfortunately some of them have not adjusted to the new type of players that are seen today due to training. Player training has catapulted players into a superstar state that doesn’t go away just because the player turns 30. The other fear has been the money factor. Well I’ve done a little analytics and money crunching. Over the past 13(arbitrary number) champions. All of them have been over the cap. The lowest number is 50M and the highest being 193 basically 194 million. A lot of these teams also had players at that 30 age mark contributing high value to earn those titles. The pistons are an anomaly because their talent is so great with 4 future purples. But even this pistons team has a huge cap. I was told by a GM that they wanted to win but didn’t want to go into the cap. This simply is an oxymoron and doesn’t exist. Exhibit B
- Exhibit B
- cap.PNG (29.48 KiB) Viewed 152 times
Another data study I have done is decipher the 5 max players that were available in this last offseason. The 5 max players were, Johnny Davis, Daniel Johnson, Charley Quick, Scoot Henderson, and AJ Blaze. The oldest player being Johnny. Johnny received the least amount of votes at 6. Is his age the reason? Yes it is! And I think the tone of the league has been pretty vocal about that. Scoot is the only player who received a max offer as every single one of his bids. At 28 years old and a less projection than Johnny and Ware. Why was Scoot not held to the same scrutiny that Ware and Johnny are held to? Scoot will not play as long as JD and Ware at as high of a level. Why am I so confident in saying this? Because JD is 3 years older than Scoot and just suffered his first decline. Where did that decline leave him? Where Scoot is at this moment, at age 28 going on 29. Yet Scoot received full Max offers at 10/10. I would like people to understand age isn’t the only factor and the core of that player needs to be taken into account. Scoot and JD have the same overall rating and JD is 3 years older. I said it earlier and I’ll say it again, 30 is NOT old. Somewhere along the line, people let LazyTitan skew the evidence that’s right in front of them. Guys are playing productive basketball into their 30s with no drop off. The Lakers average team age was 30 when he won the title 2 seasons ago.
- Exhibit C
- bids.PNG (15.56 KiB) Viewed 152 times
I encourage all of you to continue to ask for player pages, and ask how player training can impact your guys. Is it a lot of work for me? Absolutely, it’s extra work. But if it means the younger GMs become more educated and start to contend with the experienced GMs then so be it! The sim has an algorithm and formula to players based on height/expected positions out of college. So, there are stats and attributes that you increase, that don’t have a positive outlook on the player. It’s looked at as “meaningless”. A prime example is the Grizzlies who just increased Josh Giddey’s QKN and JMP this last player training session. Neither of those attributes had a tangible impact on Giddey and his ratings. At the end of the day, the sim is all numbers. Players are given a value, and that value has an impact on the players and ultimately the teams. Higher the point value, the better the player, the more likelihood of winning.
The young player push seems to be sweeping the league and I fear this is going to result in the same ole experienced GMs winning because the young guys simply aren’t good enough to beat the experienced guys. It’s just not how the numbers work, it’s not how the sim works. There are obviously outliers as all players are different. You get guys like Sion who was good at a younger age, or Dominitrix and Angel Reese who came into the league more developed and ready to play sooner. But even Dominitrix is now making money and no longer just a young guy. He’s 25 now, experienced and expensive. Young players are great when the focus is building and being cheaper in the cap. However at some point you have to win, and those players become good and expensive. You need them to be great, but before that happens they become expensive. Doug and the Pistons while even having a younger squad than say the Lakers the year before. It’s not a cheap team by any stretch and he is up against the age and huge tax implications starting next season.
You have to spend money in this league to win, you have to have veteran players in this league to win. Those things are the facts. It will be interesting to see how the negative outlook on age affects some of the older players making money now. A tried and true scenario has always been to go all in, and sell off win now players. If people aren’t able to sell of win now players, what does that do to the league?
Is 30 too old? Absolutely NOT for the data tells me so.
