Who Do I Got? S49 1st round playoff predictions

[greepleairport]

Hoping to get this in before Mamba’s Dead Wrong predictions...

Here we are, final playoffs before league restructuring. League expansion. The end of the legendary Johnson division where, as MexicanMamba once said, “I love seeing you all beat the crap out of each other.” But no more. It all ends here. Let’s figure out what ol’ greepies thinks is going to happen.

TL;DR Lakers win it all cuz duh I am the Lakers

ALPHA

#1 Pacers 1st round bye (boooooooo (not mad about it or anything))

#2 Bucks (57-25) vs. #7 Spurs (45-37)

Season series 3-1 Bucks
TL;DR Bucks

The Bucks are walking into this one WITH De’Aaron Fox. WITH. This is very important as, coming into the playoffs the last 2 seasons as early favorites, Fox did everything BUT break his leg. But it looks like that bad injury luck came a few weeks early. There’s no reason to believe that this will not serve as an omen for Quail and his Bucks who have been without a ‘ship since I joined the league (yeah. Truth. Kinda surprising, huh?). The rest of the team has stayed healthy this year for the most part and I’m hoping that, somehow some way, stating all of this will actually cast a shadow on the Bucks because I view them as some of my most fierce opposition in my own path to a title.

San Antonio did not look to compete this year, sending their biggest star Jonathan Lewis over to the Kings for some young future talent in Dorian Whitley, but holy cow did this deal end up favoring Eazy P and his Spurs. With stat lines improving across the board, most notably an increase in minutes from 22 to 35 and 10 to 20ppg (and he’s STILL g/p!), Eazy P scored with more of a win now piece that he could have imagined. If Lewis stayed with Yandell also popping p/p we could be talking about a true contender here, but so it goes as the Kings lackluster performance this year continues to confound me.

But the Bucks win here, probably in 5 games or less. No disrespect to the Spurs and Eazy, but arriving in the playoffs was never in the cards this year. Now that they’re here? I’m sure they’re happy about it, but they are not prepared to deal with the likes of a healthy De’Aaron Fox, an all-time personal best Blakemore, a rebounding machine in Grinder and Roderick Pastor and Joshua Mitchell. The Bucks just have deeper talent this year.

#3 Lakers (60-22) vs. #6 76ers (49-33)

Season series 3-2 Lakers
TL;DR Lakers

I’m not thrilled to meet the 76ers in Rd 1 of the playoffs. They led the league in offense this year, so if we have trouble shutting it down, we’ll have problems. Their roster shrunk a lot this year, likely to primarily lessen the tax burden, so if any two players go down they may be looking at the light free agency pool last minute to fill that void. Now, that will not keep them from being a threat. In shipping out their star center Conrad McRae, they were able to utilize James Wiseman’s unique height and speed at center to revolutionize this position on the team. Wiseman at the 5 is a problem for any team, not just the Lakers.

The Lakers are coming in with league MVP Delmar Lopez at the helm surrounded by a strong starting lineup and a deep bench courtesy of the Bronny James acquisition near the trade deadline. While the 76ers lead the league in scoring, the Lakers are not far behind averaging 2.3 fewer points per game. With Delmar on the 1st All Defense in addition to being league MVP, the Lakers do pose a good opportunity to shut down the 76ers offense, but it will not be easy and just about everyone will have to avoid foul trouble.

Look, I coach the Lakers. Of course I think we’re going to win.

#4 Wizards (59-23) vs. #5 Nets (53-29)

Season series 3-2 Nets
TL;DR ???

Coming into S49, many GMs (myself included) looked at RPF’s Nets and thought they could really establish themselves as a major threat to gain the #1 seed and lead Alpha. Their brutal front court combo of Jame Hector and Kaleb Wesson was rightly retained last offseason, even though RPF had looked at many options in the past of sending Hector off to another squad. For this they are a top 10 team in points allowed this season and have no trouble grabbing all the rebounds. This leads to Clay Waters feeding Joshua Schumann for the bulk of their scoring opportunities and kept them as a strong threat throughout the regular season. They may prove to be even stronger in the playoffs.

The Wizards return to the playoffs as a perennial contender with multiple time Defender of the Year Quintin Kidd at the helm. They will not have Kendall Liberty for this series and beyond, which is a significant hit though not as big as losing Kidd or Tony Cucone. They have some flexibility still in how they choose to lineup their team. Kidd proved his worth at PF this season but is better sized to be an SF or SG, which would make sense if Xist starts Mitchell. Paul Cassel is their new budding star as a scoring and rebounding threat, and smaller players will have a hard time scoring over him, like the Nets biggest scoring threat, the 6’7” Schumann.

I don’t have a TL;DR for this matchup. This is bound to be an exciting series. Whoever executes a better offense at the perimeter is likely to win this series and move on to face the Pacers in Round 2.

OMEGA

#1 Bulls 1st round bye (gives time to allow Burt Gibson to lick his wounded ligament and Richard Hunt to get back (pun intended) up again)

#2 Pelicans (63-19) vs. #7 Rockets (37-45)

Season Series 4-0 Pelicans
TL;DR Pelicans

Congratulations to the Rockets for riding strong toward the finish line this year and making it to the playoffs, beating the Suns by 5 games - a team with 3 players averaging 20+ points per game and a p/p threat in William Pearman. Even without a coach they’re a great team, but 78 kept his defense strong and muscled his way here. Former Pistons front court Ernest Long and Elisha Davis are to thank for this while Deni Avdija continued to grow his first year out of his rookie contract. They’re not a complete team yet, but all credit goes to 78 for making something out of nothing and taking the Rockets to the playoffs.

But the buck stops with the Pelicans. The Pelicans are barreling toward a showdown with the Timberwolves and/or the Bulls and, each step along the way to those matchups are practice series. No disrespect to the Rockets, but if all Nick had was former Suns Ben Franklin and Jordan Johnson, those two alone would be a challenge to hold back. Johnson shot 51% from the three point line this year and sank 240 total. 51%!!! His overall field goal percentage was only a few points higher so expect the Pelicans to win at the three point line, where Long and Davis will prove ineffective.

The Pelicans will take the Rockets in 4, and any game beyond 4 will be a massive feat for the Rockets.

#3 Timberwolves (62-20) vs. #6 Raptors (44-38)

Season Series 3-1 Timberwolves
TL;DR Timberwolves

With 7 player of the week awards and 5 player of the month awards, Delmar Lopez suddenly looks like a huge question mark for MVP this season. Obviously no disrespect to my guy Delmar - the difference was on the defensive end of the floor. Loredo’s flocked by exemplary guards Norris Turney (Loredo’s draft partner) and Chadwick Dangerfield who can run a better offense than even David Leiker on his best days. Frederic Hughes is a serviceable PF but the same cannot be said of their centers Wilfredo Perry and Albert Kellerman. Both look lost on the floor in their youth and, with Loredo, Turney and Dangerfield hitting their primes, this front court just doesn’t have the ability to back them up.

The Twolves turned the Hardaway division into a two team Johnson division with the Pelicans for a second season in a row and, down the stretch, lost the top of the division by one game - a game where they still took out the Bulls star acquisition Burt Gibson. They lost by 4 points to the best in the league. JNR runs an equitable unit with no one player scoring over 20 points per game, but 5 scoring over 15 per game and a sixth averaging 14.5 while dishing up over 10 assists at the same time (cash in that double double JNR!).

This adds up to a rough series for the Raptors. They have a better chance at stealing a game or two from the Twolves than the Rockets do from the Pelicans, but I also would not bet on it. The Timberwolves are a complete team, one of the best in the league, and they should sail easily into the semis.

#4 Clippers (46-36) vs. #5 Thunder (45-37)

Season series 4-1 Clippers
TL;DR Edging toward Clippers but not confidently

When the season started I faded the Thunder’s chances of making the playoffs, and AB made me eat my words. I felt awful sending that response for Sim Vegas, but after shipping off Bulter for younger talent, I figured they would be biding their time for another couple of seasons. AB really brought this squad together though, with no glaring weaknesses but still lacking league-leading strengths. With 7 players scoring double digits throughout the season and all players playing 58 games or more (Leonard’s and Maker’s injuries pulling their games played this low), they’re going to be a problem if they are underestimated by any opponent in the playoffs. Zaire Wade could make his first big statement in SLOE taking this team to the semis.

These Clippers are a remarkably strong team and yet remarkably weak for the teams that Mamba has built since joining the league. Mamba seemed fine to wait this year, or pivot, or reevaluate or… time just ran out before any attempt to really make a go this year came. So Mamba enters the playoffs with the young and old core of McAlister, Sterner, Grayson Allen and JJJ, a healthy mix of youth and experience. But Mamba sent AB a key piece for AB’s success this year, Scott Leonard. Will Leonard come through to make Mamba regret it? It’s certainly possible. He’ll be D2D soon and if the competition is even until then, Mamba could be looking at his first consecutive 1st rd exit since 2031 (remember when...?).

I lean toward the Clippers here because they have been a threat in the league much more recently than the Thunder, and consistently so. But AB made a good smart play acquiring Candelaria prior to the trade deadline, giving them more rebounds, more blocks, and subsequently more minutes to stay solid even if someone gets into foul trouble. The Clippers are deep with past-their-prime talent but, as we approach the 2040s, these old guys are consistently disproving the over 31 theory of PBSL, where more than vet min deals on them are becoming a new normal. (Blame Giannis for this.) This will come down to whether or not the twilight of JJJ, Abney, Hord, Reddish, Garvin and Allen will continue to shine, or if their stars have finally burnt out.

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So there you have it GMs! Prove me wrong. I’m looking favorite-heavy here but I love it when underdogs pull through. I’ll root for all of you except the 76ers. We’ll see what happens and I expect to see more than one 7 game series. It will be interesting to see what happens in the semis next and, if I move on, and want the points, I’ll probably cover those too. Cheers!

[MexicanMamba]

How dare you steal my ... Thunder ... ! Good job, brother. I have mine coming soon though it'll be in a bit different format.

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

[greepleairport]

Looking forward to it Roberto. I admit to pawning your idea but I also thought we all come in with different opinions on how this stuff will play out. But I'll also give you props for the inspiration!

[false9]

+7