The Last Seeds

[garbageman]

It's certainly been a tale of two conferences. In the East here's a 9.5 game difference between the second place Hawks and the rest of the field. In the West, the top 7 teams are separated by that same 9.5 game difference. In the East, only 5 teams are .500 or better. If the West's 11th place Suns switched conferences, they'd be sitting in the 8th spot with 2.5 games separating them from the next team in line. As it stands in the East right now, the Pacers hold that 8th seed, but there are three teams within 1.5 games behind them.

That last seed is still up for grabs in the West, too. However, unless something drastic happens in the last month, it's looking like just a two-team battle compared to a much more up for grabs playoff spot in the East. But which teams on the cusp will make it into the post-season and which ones will fall short?



Western Conference

The 8th seed in the Western Conference boils down to the Utah Jazz and the Houston Rockets. Houston is currently one game ahead, and while the teams have taken different roads to get to where they are now, they have nearly identical home and away records, identical conference records, and comparable schedules going forward.


Houston Rockets

After a commanding 8 game win streak, the Rockets' luck turned around in the midst of a 10 game road trip where they're just 1-6 so far. In the final month of the regular season, they have 8 home games and 8 away games. They also play 8 teams with better records and 8 with worse records than the 34-32 record they hold now. If they can hold serve, they might be able to defend their playoff position, but that would require them to turn momentum around, and with three very tough road games ahead (Timberwolves, Nuggets, and Hawks), that is easier said than done.


Utah Jazz

After an incredible hot start, the Jazz's loss column has caught up. In their first 33 games, they went 21-12, and they've been the exact opposite, 12-21, ever since. Their schedule is a little lighter than the Rockets (they've got 9 home games to 7 away games and games against 9 teams with worse records and only 7 teams with better records).

Unfortunately, they've also been bitten by the injury bug as of late. Zaza Pachulia is day to day with a sprained knee, and Grevis Vasquez is out for around 3 weeks with patellar tendonitis. Neither injury is a death knell for the Jazz, but in such a tight race, a couple key bench players could make the difference.


PREDICTION

With these two teams, it could be a toss-up. However, despite the injuries, I'm going to predict that the Jazz sneak in and take the last spot in the West. Pachulia should be back at 100% in a matter of games, and the Jazz's slightly more favorable schedule makes the playoffs theirs for the taking.



Eastern Conference

The Eastern Conference currently features four teams within a game and a half of each other all vying for playoff contention. Right now, the Pacers hold the lead by the slimmest of margins (a half game) over the Bulls. The Magic sit another half game behind Chicago, and a half game behind Orlando, the Pistons remain in the conversation. None of these teams have played particularly well this season, and whoever wins will probably be scorched by the powerhouse 76ers, but even that's a more desirable fate than missing the playoffs—especially for the Bulls and Magic, who do not have their own picks in the 2013 draft.


Indiana Pacers

The Pacers have fallen pretty heavily from their dominant record last year. They lost both Timofey Mozgov and Richard Jefferson, leaving the team's fate basically up to the play of Deron Williams. For his part, Williams has maintained incredible numbers, averaging a double-double in points and assists as one of the most efficient players in the league (in fact, he leads the East right now in PER).

The Pacers also added Brandon Roy and his ridiculous contract in hopes for another offensive option to relieve Deron, but if you track the Pacers' record, it seems to make no difference. They're playing consistent ball, and they look like they will play predictably similarly for the last month of the season. With 19 games left, they have 9 at home, where they've played well, and 10 on the road, where they've played miserably.

Being in the atrocious Central Division, they have a lot of easy games coming up. They're playing the Bucks three times and the Raptors twice, and those two teams (especially the Bucks with Kemba Walker's season-ending injury) seem to be competing for last as they've both been in rebuild mode and out of contention. They've also got their Roy trading partners, the Hornets, coming up. The Hornets record also isn't anything to write home about, but without their pick, they should be playing to win, especially after some midseason improvements that netted a formidable team of expensive expiring contracts. Overall, they play 9 teams with better records and 10 teams with worse records on their final stretch of the season.


Chicago Bulls

A midseason deal with the Hornets gave the Bulls Dwight Howard, but not the significant boost in record to come with it. They've been playing better ball as of late, making up for a horrendous start to the season, but they're going to need to step it up even more if they want to take that spot from the Pacers and defend it against hungry Magic and Pistons teams. In their last 18 games, they play 8 teams with worse records and 10 teams with better records.

They DO have 12 home games to 6 away games, but their home record hasn't been particularly impressive. They're going to need to go a bit better than .500, and that's not going to be an easy task. With the Pacers having an easier schedule, I don't see the Bulls surpassing them for the 8th spot before the season's done.


Orlando Magic

The Magic straddle the line between the Pacers and the Bulls. Like the Pacers, they lost some key pieces to their 2011 team and only retained 2 out of their 5 starters. Dragic and Matthews have been playing well, but their only offseason pickup of major significance was Kevin Martin, who is playing out of position at the SF spot.

Like the Bulls, the Magic got off to a very rough start before finding some semblance of chemistry that culminated in a 7 game win streak that took them to a brief stint in the playoff picture. They've got 9 games at home and 8 on the road. They've also got 9 games against teams with better records and 8 against teams with worse records. However, that doesn't seem to be an indicator of wins and losses for the Magic. They've beat a handful of teams that went against the odds, like Denver and Houston, and they've lost to teams like the Raptors and Mavs. They're 3-1 on the season against the Pacers and 0-3 against the Bulls. The Magic could just as easily be the 8th seed as the 11th. Right now, it's anyone's guess.


Detroit Pistons

The Pistons are a team that looks pretty bad on paper until you factor in their two big men, LaMarcus Aldridge and soon-to-be rookie of the year, Anthony Davis, who might be enough to pull the Pistons into the 8th seed. They have improved from 10-22 in their first 32 games to 15-17 in their last 32 games. They have 9 games at home, where they do reliably well, and 9 games on the road, where they play reliably awfully. However, they only have 3 games out of 18 against teams with worse records (though 6 of those 18 are against the teams above them on this list, and 4 of those are home games).


PREDICTION

In times of uncertainty, sometimes the smartest thing to do is stick with the status quo. I predict that the Pacers will hang onto their spot in the East and make the playoffs, but it's going to be close. As a bolder prediction, I'm going to venture a guess that they're not going to have the best record in the last month of the season between the teams mentioned on this list.

[78#]

-2 points. Thanks for your worthless contributions.

[garbageman]

-2 points. Thanks for your worthless contributions.

Cash me ousside howbow dah

[IamQuailman]

:D:D

[NickMalone77]

Thank you for your media contribution. Here's +5 points for your article.

[TheSyndicate]

Thank you for your media contribution. Here's +5 points for your article.

Awww, cute. The lame duck Media Points guy giving points to the presumptive next Media Points guy. It's the CIRRRRRRRRRRCLE of SLOE

[NickMalone77]

Thank you for your media contribution. Here's +5 points for your article.

Awww, cute. The lame duck Media Points guy giving points to the presumptive next Media Points guy. It's the CIRRRRRRRRRRCLE of SLOE

Funny. Lame ducks normally don't reward or do anything in the last year or control. Also funny is I don't remember any of these positions having term limits, either.

[IamQuailman]

Thank you for your media contribution. Here's +5 points for your article.

Awww, cute. The lame duck Media Points guy giving points to the presumptive next Media Points guy. It's the CIRRRRRRRRRRCLE of SLOE

Funny. Lame ducks normally don't reward or do anything in the last year or control. Also funny is I don't remember any of these positions having term limits, either.

Which is exactly why we need elections. Abuse of power

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No Trade List: Hornets

[RPF]