Wig's Team Futures (Complete!)

[WigNosy]

These grades are NOT really based on your team's current performance. Rather, they are based on where I feel your current players, cap situation, and picks, are likely to land your team in about three seasons (2004). This entry is for the first half of the alphabet. Look for the second half in the next couple of days.

76ERS - B-
Players: The Sixers have a nice young backcourt brewing with Hamilton and Baron Davis. They can count on keeping both players in RFA after the 2002 season, so they're set quite comfortably for the foreseeable future.
Cap: The Sixers are set to have very little on the books next season and if Erick Dampier opts out could be in an incredibly good cap situation. They will have to tie up quite a bit of cap in 2003 for Davis and Hamilton, but they have as much flexibility as anyone at this point.
Picks: Traded away picks to clear their books; they have the Blazers' 2002 first (late) and their own 2003 first-round pick in case their rebuild-on-the-fly goes sour this season. Would have been nice to see them keep a 2004 pick and/or their own 2002.

BUCKS - B+
Players: Ginobili and Randolph are their marquee future pieces, and Magloire and Mihm are young, cheap, interesting pieces as well. You can see some of the groundwork here, even if it will take time for them to grow. Only complaint is I wish Manu and Z-Bo were a little farther along in their development.
Cap: Most of their money is tied up in rookie deals, and those tend to be longer-term deals at that. The Bucks are in great shape with the cap.
Picks: Their own 2002 pick should net them another solid young piece. I like the Sonics' 2004 pick as well, since the Sonics decided to build old. They also have the Grizzlies' pick in 2003 and their own 2004 pick which should be less valuable as I expect both squads to have more or less grown into their young players' potential by the time these picks come up.

BULLS - A-
Players: Miller, Thomas, Jackson, Bryant, Bibby are a killer young starting five, and Walker, Szczerbiak, and LaFrentz are at least decent bench pieces. The problem is with two of those guys already on max deals and four more hitting RFA this season, the Bulls' cap space is about to wither - they can't keep them all this season, let alone in the future. Realistically, I'd expect them to try to keep their starting five intact and let the other guys walk.
Cap: Their cap looks decent now... until you realize Miller and Bibby are going to get PAID this offseason. Their cap situation will get very bad very fast unless they are willing to lose talent.
Picks: They have their own picks in 2003 and 2004... which, if they keep their talent together, won't be lottery picks but might provide a little depth. Not much future assets to be had here without losing young players.

CAVALIERS - C-
Players: Michael Redd and maybe DerMarr Johnson comprise the young potential here. They have a lot of guys in their late 20's on reasonable contracts that might be flippable for other, younger assets... but for a futures grade, get them no points now. One player to build around is a nice start, but honestly, kind of expected given they're a rebuilding team.
Cap: Their cap is pretty gnarly next year, but clears up nicely after that. The sense is that the Cavs aren't playing for next year anyway, but are taking a long view, so I think their cap reflecting that makes sense.
Picks: Have a ton of second round picks that probably won't amount to much. Also have their own 2003 and 2004 picks (when they're still likely to be bad) but I have a hard time giving kudos for that. Keeping your own picks is what I expect when you're a bad team. Criminal they don't have their own pick this year.

CELTICS - B+
Players: Stevie Franchise (undersized scorer), Steven Hunter (defensive-focused big) and... not much else, really. Francis is good, but he needs to be great and soon.
Cap: Have one ugly contract (Bobby Phills), but can probably work around that. Will have less cap than it looks like right now when chasing free agents next year because of...
Picks: Have FIVE first-round picks this year. Only one pick is lottery, but they're scattered pretty evenly through the draft so the Celtics will always be a threat to move up this year. 3 picks in the next 2 years... that's going to help, too.

CLIPPERS - C+
Players: Ricky Davis is their only young player of note, but he has rounded into a solid starter at the tender age of 22. He looks' to be the face of the Clippers after the Nick Van Exel era concludes.
Cap: No space to speak of next year, most likely, and still pretty crowded in 2003. Would like more flexibility sooner.
Picks: Have their own picks the next three seasons. Nothing worth dinging them for (like trading them away) or cheering (accumulating other teams' picks).

GRIZZLIES - B+
Players: Core of Marion, Gasol, Carter looks very promising as all three players should grow into all-star caliber players. It will just take adding the right fringe pieces around them.
Cap: Don't like the Steve Nash deal, but otherwise a nice clean cap. Will have to pay Vince Carter next year but should still have enough money to dangle a max deal to someone if they want to.
Picks: Have their own pick in 2002 and 2004, and that's it. Probably not getting a lot of value in the draft from those picks.

HAWKS - F+
Players: The Hawks' entire core is 27 or above, meaning that 3 years from now, all of their key players will be on the decline. The only players they can reasonably expect will improve are Jeff Foster (offensively-challenged big man), Eddie House (could grow into an undersized three and D guy) and possibly Desmond Mason (who only has one potential rating better than a C).
Cap: The Hawks have no significant cap relief in sight. At some point soon the luxury tax will catch up to them and they'll have to shed salary.
Picks: They have their own draft pick this year (#29) and no picks in 2003. The only silver lining is that they at least have their 2004 pick if that becomes their rebuild year but other than that they have no great future assets to speak of. It's that small silver lining that takes their F to an F+.

HEAT - D-
Players: The future is... um... Joel Przybilla? They waited too long to try to unload Payton for a rebuild package and now they're old and bad. At least it's clear they're rebuilding now.
Cap: Payton's contract is a huge problem now, and they compounded it with Delk, Anderson, and Alvin Williams. The cap situation here is not pretty until 2004.
Picks: They have their own picks - good for a rebuilding squad but no brownie points - and do have the Spurs' 1st this year. It's not much but it's something.

HORNETS - D+
Players: Ron Artest is rounding into a nice player and Nesterovic, Glover, and Thomas all have the potential to turn into niche - but useful - bench pieces.
Cap: They've got quite a bit of money committed to their core next year, but they're a top-5 team in the East at the moment, and should have close to enough to offer a max next year, so that's forgiveable. Their books are pretty clean after that (though they will have to max Artest).
Picks: Have their own 2003 as a ripcord in case of emergency, otherwise the cupboard is bare. That's... a little less margin for error than I'd like.

JAZZ - B
Players: The Duncan/Wells/Marbury trio is going to be the mainstay of the Jazz' young nucleus for the foreseeable future. They're all 25, so they should age well together, and when you've got a young MVP (Duncan) locked up you're always in good shape.
Cap: Yeah, that Shawn Bradley contract looks worse by the day. The Jazz aren't going to have any cap flexibility until they ditch his team option for 2004.
Picks: Have their own 2003 and 2004 picks, which won't be great because they will be pretty good.

KINGS - B-
Players: I love the potential of McGrady and Arenas, but the next-youngest King is a 27-year-old Daniels. The Kings have swept away almost all of their young core of a couple of years ago... I used to be higher on their ceiling.
Cap: I don't like the Daniels contract. McGrady is deserving of a max, Daniels less so, and he'll be the guy they have to work contracts around. They'll have enough cap space to offer a max next season, but are pretty much capped out from then on if they get another max guy in.
Picks: Have their own 2002 and 2004 picks, so reinforcements in the draft aren't likely coming.

KNICKS - C+
Players: They have no young players worth noting... sorry Charlie Bell.
Cap: Next season they have more salary tied up than I'd like for a rebuilding team... but at least their books are basically clean after that.
Picks: Have 5 picks over the next two seasons, including a guaranteed top-4 pick this year and two picks (their own and the Cavaliers) that project to be high lottery picks next season in the LeBron sweepstakes. This should get them back on the path to respectability.

LAKERS - A-
Players: Their young core is KG, AK47, and Larry Hughes... all young defensive studs. It's no accident the Lakers are grinding teams on defense.
Cap: With Hughes due for a big raise this year and AK47 due for a big raise the following year, the Lakers have enough cap flexibility to pay their guys, but will have a hard time adding free agents to their squad... but with a core that finished #1 in the West this season and only Jason Kidd looking like he might start to erode in the next 3 years, the Lakers can live with that.
Picks: Have all their own picks, so nothing special here.

[NOLa.]

Daniels is the next youngest player on Kings team after McGrady and Arenas.

Are you sure that's your final answer?


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[p_amour]

Nice Write Up

[Conroy]

Really enjoyed reading this, the Celtics do have 2 lottery picks though (Grizz ended up 12th). Also makes it sting that we snuck into the playoffs this year, just to get smashed by the Hawks. Would have had 3 lotto picks...I like this draft more and more as I look at it though. Still need to add Nene, Scola, Kristic, Matt Barnes a few other people should be solid enough.

[WigNosy]

Daniels is the next youngest player on Kings team after McGrady and Arenas.

Are you sure that's your final answer?


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Forgot about Battier. Bump the Kings' grade to a B+ for Battier, then down to a B for sassing the teacher.

[NOLa.]

Should still be a B+ just for that Watson picture.

[WigNosy]

MAGIC - B
Players: Tyson Chandler, Richard Jefferson, Mike Miller, and possibly Damon Jones are the young core of this squad (Eddy Curry had an unfortunate mishap in Training Camp). That gives them potential with interior defense from Chandler and outside shooting from the rest of the squad. Probably need a scoring threat that is either a slash-and-dish point guard (Jones is not that) or a post-up presence at Power Forward with a passing touch to really get the most out of this group.
Cap: Peeler and Augmon are on the wrong side of thirty and their huge contracts clog the Magic's cap for the forseeable future. Those contracts have to be moved for the Magic to really flourish - without these contracts, their grade would have been an easy A.
Picks: Have their own lotto pick and the 76ers not quite lotto pick this year, so expect another young piece or two immediately. Also hold their own pick in 2003 and 2004, so a pretty decent haul. If they're not trending up by 2004 themselves, it will be due to their contract albatrosses.

MAVERICKS - A
Players: Jamison is a scoring star at PF already but Andre Miller hasn't been able to figure out shot selection yet. I kind of worry now that Andre could be another Tharon Mayes - a guy who should have all the tools... but never quite puts it all together in sim league. Still, you could do worse as a young core than an all star PF and a terrific assist man at the point.
Cap: Camby is on a max deal, but he's in his prime and gives them a great defensive anchor. Jamison will get a max this off-season, so they don't have as much cap as you might think, and they'll have to pay Andre after next season... so the time for them to strike to bring in high-priced talent is probably this offseason.
Picks: Have their own pick in 2002, which isn't great, but have four picks next season... and depending on what the Warriors and Bucks do this off-season, both of those picks could be good. Also have their own 2004 pick. So they're looking pretty good here.

NETS - B
Players: Have two very solid, if different, wings in Maggette and Crash Wallace. Maggette gives them a ton of offense and Wallace looks like he could develop into a defensive stopper. Jamal Tinsley took a step back in Training Camp but could grow to be a defensive force in his own right, and Antoine Walker will always be a threat to hoist threes. Even Jerome James has a niche as a block-and-board defensive rim protector.
Cap: The Dale Davis deal is probably a little excessive, but the Nets don't have to worry about extensions for a couple of years and have a formidable amount of cap space to bring in pieces around their young core.
Picks: Have all their own firsts. Like always, this is kind of expected and won't ding or help them.

NUGGETS - D+
Players: No young pieces to speak of (Jason Collins does not count). That's a big strike against them.
Cap: One big contract next year (Ceballos), otherwise a more or less clean slate to work with. Ceballos is almost worth that contract so I can't fault them too much. This is probably their best asset, but as we've seen, it's hard to land impact free agents who aren't past their prime with free agent dollars.
Picks: Have four picks over the next three years, and should at least net a franchise player after next season since they have little talent on the roster now. Their other picks are a little less certain to yield quality players.

PACERS - C-
Players: Paul Pierce has now fully succeeded Stacey Augmon as the resident star SF in Indiana. Morris Peterson might turn out to be a good piece, but there's not a log of other young building blocks surrounding Pierce yet. Would have liked to see one more solid piece here by now, though.
Cap: A pretty clean slate here as well, though Pierce will be maxxed this off-season so they will have about 50% of the cap to play with going forward. Still, they've done a nice job keeping cap space available.
Picks: Have their own picks the next three years.

PISTONS - A
Players: The Terry-Parker combination was dynamite with both guys turning into 20 ppg scorers. Posey is turning into a very nice wing and Al Harrington was miscast at Center, but could be a good stretch four. If they can find a legitimate big man instead of playing Al out of position, the Pistons' core is going to terrify teams offensively.
Cap: Yes, they'll have to start shelling out big dollars to keep their young core together, but right now the only contracts past this year are rookie-scale deals. Can't ask for more than that for cap management.
Picks: Have their own pick in 2002 and 2004. They'll be too good in 2003 to be in the running for a top pick anyway, but you do wish they had a little more in the pick bank to reload with.

RAPTORS - B
Players: Brand and Billups will still be on the rise the next couple of years, and Michael Finley is a bona fide superstar who will have lost a step by the time they reach their peaks, but will probably still be playing at an all star level. Kwame Brown has a chance to beomce a passable defensive big as well. The Raptors' young core has already proven they can win, something very few other teams can boast.
Cap: Almost certainly over the cap next season and will have to pay Brand - and stay over the cap - the season after that. The Maxliff and Monster Mashburn deals aren't awful, but they do limit the Raptors' flexibility.
Picks: Have their own 2003 and 2004 picks, which aren't likely to be of much help. They probably wish they had another pick or two in that span to reinforce their core. Combine with their cap status and I don't see where they'll be able to add talent easily, which lowers their futures grade a bit.

ROCKETS - C
Players: Jason Richardson is their offensive hope for their future and Desagana Diop their defensive hope. Trouble is, they came along slowly this season and may not be ready for primetime in the next 2-3 seasons. That's a bit of a concern to me.
Cap: The only big contract they have now is sometime All-Star big Ilgauskas, who's in his prime. I can live with that, and I'm sure they can too. Lots of cap space means lots of flexibility.
Picks: Have their own picks the next three years. Indifferent here.

SPURS - A-
Players: Believe it or not, Shareef Abdur Rahim and Ray Allen are still young enough to be ascending, and Glenn Robinson, like Michael Finley, will still be excellent for the next few years. Their starting PG, Tyronn Lue, is a steady if not great player, and the Spurs can retain him if they wish. The Spurs' core faces the same questions they always have: is it enough to win in the playoffs. As of this writing, with the Spurs tied 1-1 in the Western Conference Finals, I think the answer is finally "yes."
Cap: Here, they're less fortunate. The Spurs aren't likely to have much in the way of flexibility even if they retain PG Tyronn Lue at half the max. Their grade gets dinged a bit for that.
Picks: With a top pick this season courtesy of the Nuggets, and another four picks in three seasons, the best of which may be the Knicks, 2004 pick, the Spurs are loaded with cheap reinforcements. Depending on how the lottery falls, they could really cement themselves as favorites in the West for some time.

SUNS - C
Players: The "initials" squad of J.O., A.I., KVH, and Joe Johnson has always been an underachieving bunch, but they're still young enough that if they grow into their potentials, they could be scary. Will management be able to be patient enough is the big questions.
Cap: They've already had to pay their young guns except Johnson, so their cap is a mess. They'll have to move pieces to significantly change the makeup of the team, and that inflexibility hurts.
Picks: Have their own picks the next three seasons. As long as their core underachieves, I guess that rewards them.

SUPERSONICS - F
Players: Chris Andersen is the only player of note under the age of 29. Jalen Rose will probably be able to keep playing at a high level for a while, but Bird Man is no number two. The Sonics are in Win-Now mode and know it.
Cap: Their cap is pretty much already full up for the next three seasons.
Picks: They have only first-round one pick... the Hawks' 2003 pick. I somehow suspect that ain't gonna net them LeBron. The Supersonics have sold off the future to try to win now, and I expect they'll be either taking one more push next season or breaking it up for a rebuild package or two if they can't win.

TIMBERWOLVES - C+
Players: Raja Bell and Vladimir Radmanovic are nice young chips that could be borderline starters when they fill out, but the Wolves' stable of young talent still needs to be filled more.
Cap: Their cap situation is great - very little money committed next season and no rookie contracts that will need big extending until after 2003. Great marks here, though they'll probably spoil some of it with a big max to Webber.
Picks: Have their own picks the next three years plus the Hornets' 2004 pick. They have some material to work with here.

TRAILBLAZERS - D+
Players: Hard to believe Dirk is still just 23 years old. He's already the guy they're building around (well, him and Shaq) and is posting quality numbers. The bad news is the rest of their core skews old, so they'll probably need to re-work the crew around him over the next few seasons. If Dirk wasn't as good as he is, their grade would be even lower.
Cap: They're going to have to max Dirk, and that pretty much wipes their cap flexibility out for the foreseeable future.
Picks: Have only their own 2003 pick. They'll be good enough next year for that not to bring them much help.

WARRIORS - F+
Players: When a 25-year-old Greg Buckner is your best young asset, that's a problem. The Warriors have been so good for so long, they haven't been able to stockpile young players.
Cap: They are way over the cap next year, but drop to basically the Kemp monster deal the year after, and then their books are clean. Will Kemp be worth $18.3 million in 2003? Maybe not, but it's likely he'll be worth close to it.
Picks: Have their own 2002 and 2004 picks, meaning their rebuild probably can't start until 2004 when the Kemp contract falls off the books and they have their own pick. Since the futures is looking at the 2004-2005 range, that's not really a good omen.

WIZARDS - B-
Players: Lamar Odom and Rashard Lewis are the two pieces J2 has built around the last couple of seasons and it looks like the team is finally starting to come together. They have an interesting piece in a young Troy Murphy as well. Olowokandi and Stackhouse and Anthony Johnson will be just coming out of their primes by the 2004-2005 range, but at present, the Wizards look primed to win the Atlantic the next couple of years and with some moves to rotate those pieces out and continue building around Odom and Lewis, could be dangerous for years to come.
Cap: The Wizards probably don't have the cap space to make anything happen this off-season, and what they do with Olowokandi will go a long way toward determining their future cap flexibility - I assume they're already budgeting max deals to Lewis this year and Odom next year. If they don't commit long term money to Olowokandi, they probably have some flexibility to change the supporting cast after next year. If they do re-sign him, I'm less optimistic about their chances.
Picks: Have their own firsts in 2003 and 2004, so not a lot of help coming in the draft. This really is about how well they can move pieces around Odom and Lewis over the next couple of years.

[Snuglife91]

Great write up. I think a C+ is accurate for my franchise. I know a majority of gms would disagree with my methods, but I was left with two choices; be patient and accept failure for a few years, or go the Seattle route and overpay for a playoff run with no hope at a championship. It's easy to claim that the short term success is the route to go, but in all honesty the sonics are no closer to a title than I am right now. Really don't care for the stigma against a lack of overspending in the rebuilding route I chose. Nothing wrong with a little a patience.

[Darth Vegito]

Great write up. I think a C+ is accurate for my franchise. I know a majority of gms would disagree with my methods, but I was left with two choices; be patient and accept failure for a few years, or go the Seattle route and overpay for a playoff run with no hope at a championship. It's easy to claim that the short term success is the route to go, but in all honesty the sonics are no closer to a title than I am right now. Really don't care for the stigma against a lack of overspending in the rebuilding route I chose. Nothing wrong with a little a patience.

You disrespectful little schmuck. Win a playoff series first, hell make the playoffs first before you start talking shit to a proven champion. I'll always be closer to winning a championship than you are. Every year I'll be closer, forever. There are some teams that when they make the playoffs, the league calls you filler teams. You just fill the seeds. You have no legit chance at a ring, nor will you ever as long as their are real gms in the league. I'll give you one thing, you sure know how to make enemies. Sure My Dude Snuggie.


Great write-up Wig btw as always!

[NOLa.]

Oh
My
God

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[WigNosy]

Great write up. I think a C+ is accurate for my franchise. I know a majority of gms would disagree with my methods, but I was left with two choices; be patient and accept failure for a few years, or go the Seattle route and overpay for a playoff run with no hope at a championship. It's easy to claim that the short term success is the route to go, but in all honesty the sonics are no closer to a title than I am right now. Really don't care for the stigma against a lack of overspending in the rebuilding route I chose. Nothing wrong with a little a patience.

You disrespectful little schmuck. Win a playoff series first, hell make the playoffs first before you start talking shit to a proven champion. I'll always be closer to winning a championship than you are. Every year I'll be closer, forever. There are some teams that when they make the playoffs, the league calls you filler teams. You just fill the seeds. You have no legit chance at a ring, nor will you ever as long as their are real gms in the league. I'll give you one thing, you sure know how to make enemies. Sure My Dude Snuggie.


Great write-up Wig btw as always!

Darth be all:

[Soundwave]

Wasn't me.

[JNR]

C+? What filth dared pass your unworthy lips, pitiful urchin? I will declare, am the heir of the Elders, I have led our people out of tragedy single-handed, and I have destroyed over 300 white demons. I am learned in the arts of the earth and sky, and none are more connected to the Great Spirit than I! You are but nothing to me, prey. I will have your head hollowed for a gourde, my word is sacred! Do you think your magic will allow you to continue to disrespect me like this? Think again, dog! Even as you stand, my brothers from across the land are circling your home and your sacred place is being hunted right now, so prepare for the onslaught, rat. The onslaught that will decimate your very way of life from your people's history. You are a breathing ghost, child. I can move as I please, night or day, and I can steal your breath in over seven hundred ways, without so much as a knife. Not only am I a warrior-king's son, but I have the loyalty of my entire tribe and I will rather laugh than hesitate at wiping your hide out of this world, little dog. If only you had known what torrents your gibberish would bring upon, you would have kept silent. But you could not, you did not, and now the price will be yours to pay, backwards fool. I will spread fury like droppings until it consumes you, and you drown in its depths. You are a memory, boy.

[kucoach7]

Great write up. I think a C+ is accurate for my franchise. I know a majority of gms would disagree with my methods, but I was left with two choices; be patient and accept failure for a few years, or go the Seattle route and overpay for a playoff run with no hope at a championship. It's easy to claim that the short term success is the route to go, but in all honesty the sonics are no closer to a title than I am right now. Really don't care for the stigma against a lack of overspending in the rebuilding route I chose. Nothing wrong with a little a patience.

FYI - Darth does not respond well to criticism. Not sure if you got that from his response. . .

Nice write-up Wig.

[JNR]

Was it criticism? Because to me it was kind of an insult out of nowhere. Especially because Darth has a pretty good shot at a ring.

[kucoach7]

Was it criticism? Because to me it was kind of an insult out of nowhere. Especially because Darth has a pretty good shot at a ring.

Agreed about the ring and Darth is one of the best GMs in the league, even if I take what are intended to be friendly jabs at him myself. I was trying to say that things have been a little choppy around here and we would probably all be better off if we just cooled down a bit. I guess that didn't come across in my brief vague comment.

[NOLa.]

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[RPF]

Nicely done Wig

[Xist2Inspire]

Great job Wig, fun read.

[Snuglife91]

Great write up. I think a C+ is accurate for my franchise. I know a majority of gms would disagree with my methods, but I was left with two choices; be patient and accept failure for a few years, or go the Seattle route and overpay for a playoff run with no hope at a championship. It's easy to claim that the short term success is the route to go, but in all honesty the sonics are no closer to a title than I am right now. Really don't care for the stigma against a lack of overspending in the rebuilding route I chose. Nothing wrong with a little a patience.

You disrespectful little schmuck. Win a playoff series first, hell make the playoffs first before you start talking shit to a proven champion. I'll always be closer to winning a championship than you are. Every year I'll be closer, forever. There are some teams that when they make the playoffs, the league calls you filler teams. You just fill the seeds. You have no legit chance at a ring, nor will you ever as long as their are real gms in the league. I'll give you one thing, you sure know how to make enemies. Sure My Dude Snuggie.


Great write-up Wig btw as always!

lol calm down son. The comment was more about defending my moves, not attacking yours. I used you as an example because we chose two completely different routes. I use hyperboles to get my point across no need to take it so personally. The comment was just honesty, you mortgaged your future just to make the playoffs this season. Doesn't mean you can't turn it around, but the "no closer" comment was strictly directed towards the season that just ended. And yeah you definitely have a far better chance at a title for the near future at the very least.