Wig's 2000-2001 All-Star Handicapping
Posted: Tue Apr 21, 2015 4:10 pm
That's right, I'm back! I'll start by putting in my best guess at how the Western Conference All-Star voting will shake down. Expect the Eastern Conference to be done some time later today or tomorrow.
STARTING CENTER: Tom Gugliotta (MIN) - PER: 32.7
Gugliotta is an easy choice for starting Center now that he's moved away from the competition of Shaq and Zo in the East. Currently sporting the best PER in the league by a player not named Kemp, an eye-popping 32.7, he's averaging a man-size double-double (24.6 points, 10.3 boards) and mixing in 4.1 assists, 1.8 steals, and 1.7 blocks to go with it. "Gugs" is still at the peak of his powers.
BACKUP CENTER: Zydrunas Ilgauskas (HOU) - PER: 25.3
I tried to find an argument against Big Z at the backup, and couldn't do it. You could argue he's on a last place team, but he's putting up 20.7 points and 9.9 rebounds per night. Dirk Nowitzki of Portland is matching his scoring, but not close in rebounds (7.0) and Marcus Camby in Sacramento is a wash in rebounds (10.0) but doesn't score (15.4). Big Z is the clear-cut choice as the backup center.
STARTING POWER FORWARD: Tim Duncan (UTA) - PER: 31.4
The West is absolutely loaded at Power Forward and I had a tough choice here. I wound up going with Duncan on the strength of him leading the league in scoring with 29.3 ppg and chipping in 10.8 rpg and 2.9 bpg. He does everything you want your big man to do and does it extremely well.
BACKUP POWER FORWARD: Chris Webber (MIN) - PER: 30.9
This spot is a lot tougher than it looks. There are actually five really solid candidates for the backup spot; Shawn Kemp is his usual beastly self, averaging 27 and 9 with 3 blocks and a 37.0 PER. Shareef Abdur-Rahim has been a beast offensively, putting up 26.8 points and averaging 10.2 rebounds. Stacey Augmon has slid up to the power forward spot and as of this writing is scoring 26.1 while notching 6.7 rebounds. Kevin Garnett is scoring 25.6 points, averaging a surprisingly low 7.7 boards, and chipping in 1.2 steals and 1.6 blocks. Any one of these would have been a solid choice. Kemp has missed enough time this year that I don't think he's the automatic choice he's been in past seasons. I went with Webber, who is scoring the least of the group (24.6 ppg) but has added 8.8 boards (more than Garnett and Augmon), 3.5 assists (way more than anyone else), 1.7 blocks (more than anyone but Kemp) and even 1.0 steals (more than Shareef). All that said, this is a really tough spot to pick; all four of the guys I didn't pick are deserving, there are just 6 excellent PFs in the West and only 2 PF spots and 2 at-large spots, so two of them will get number-crunched out.
STARTING SMALL FORWAD: Cedric Ceballos (GSW) - PER: 27.1
With Kemp out for a significant portion of the early season, Ceballos stepped his game up massively, turning back the clock with 25.5 ppg and 8.1 rpg on better than 50% shooting. I keep waiting for him to be supplanted in the West, but with Augmon having shifted to Power Forwad, I think Ceballos gets to hang on to the starting spot one more year.
BACKUP SMALL FORWARD: Tracy McGrady (SAC) - PER: 25.1
McGrady got to step into Augmon's shoes when NOLa let Augmon go in Free Agency this past summer, and has responded pretty well, scoring 22.1 ppg and adding 6.3 board, 3.6 assists, 1.3 steals, and 0.9 blocks (best among SFs). He gets in front of the Wolves' Jim Jackson (19.9 ppg, 7.4 rpg, and 4.5 apg) because Jackson has been slowed by injuries and has missed a significant chunk of the season and Dallas' Donyell Marshall (18.8 ppg, 9.1 rpg, 2.3 apg), who may be better on the boards, but doesn't have the same sizzle on offense.
STARTING SHOOTING GUARD: Allen Iverson (PHX) - PER: 24.2
In the West, there are two guards that I think stand head and shoulders above the field, so it's easy to say who makes the all-star game; now it's just trying to guess in what order. The Answer has been under intense scrutiny this season, and there has been talk of Inner_GI giving up on him, but he has balled this year, putting up 22.6 points per game - good for second among SGs in the league - and 6.0 assists per game (only Steve Francis does better). His 1.9 steals are among the top at his position and he fouls less than the competition (2.4 vs. Vince Carter's 2.9). It's by a small margin, but I think he gets the start.
BACKUP SHOOTING GUARD: Vince Carter (VAN) - PER: 24.3
Vince backs up A.I. by the smallest of margins; he's a better scorer (24.5 ppg to 22.6) and rebounder (5.5 vs. 3.9) but doesn't pass (2.5 apg vs 6.0) or defend (0.8 steals to 1.9 and commits 2.9 fouls versus A.I.'s 2.4) nearly as well as A.I. does, so I have to ding him for that. That said, there's a considerable step down to the "next SG" (Ray Allen of the Spurs) so Vince is pretty secure as an All Star.
STARTING POINT GUARD: Nick Van Exel (LAC) - PER: 24.5
Nicky Van Smack is still one of the best offensive weapons in the league; he can score (18.7 ppg) and pass (9.5 apg), which means he is the Clippers' engine again this season. There's not a point guard in the West that scores or passes it like he does, so, like Duncan, he's exactly what you want from his position, making him an easy choice.
BACKUP POINT GUARD: Jason Kidd (LAL) - PER: 21.2
Robert Pack has made a very strong case in Dallas (21.7 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 7.3 apg, 2.0 spg), but even though Kidd can't touch Pack's scoring (only 11.9 ppg), he's the best-rebounding guard in the game (8.1) and only Van Exel passes better (8.9 apg). He also registers 1.8 steals per game, so it's not like the Pack-Man is running away with that category either. Besides, there's no way both Garnett AND Kidd could be left out of the top-10 all-star spots when the Lakers are sitting atop the West, right?
AT-LARGE SPOTS:
Kevin Garnett (LAL) - PER: 28.7
S.Abdur-Rahim (SAS) - PER: 26.8
As I discussed above, there are four deserving Power Forwards in the West that haven't been named to the roster at this point. I'm going to stick to my guns that Kemp's injury made him miss enough time that he will miss his first all-star game in a long time, so he's out. Augmon has been playing great, but I don't think he can deny Abdur-Rahim a spot with Shareef is averaging more points, a lot more rebounds, more blocks, and more assists... and fewer fouls. If Kemp is voted in, though, Shareef is the poor bubble guy who gets bumped out.
STARTING CENTER: Tom Gugliotta (MIN) - PER: 32.7
Gugliotta is an easy choice for starting Center now that he's moved away from the competition of Shaq and Zo in the East. Currently sporting the best PER in the league by a player not named Kemp, an eye-popping 32.7, he's averaging a man-size double-double (24.6 points, 10.3 boards) and mixing in 4.1 assists, 1.8 steals, and 1.7 blocks to go with it. "Gugs" is still at the peak of his powers.
BACKUP CENTER: Zydrunas Ilgauskas (HOU) - PER: 25.3
I tried to find an argument against Big Z at the backup, and couldn't do it. You could argue he's on a last place team, but he's putting up 20.7 points and 9.9 rebounds per night. Dirk Nowitzki of Portland is matching his scoring, but not close in rebounds (7.0) and Marcus Camby in Sacramento is a wash in rebounds (10.0) but doesn't score (15.4). Big Z is the clear-cut choice as the backup center.
STARTING POWER FORWARD: Tim Duncan (UTA) - PER: 31.4
The West is absolutely loaded at Power Forward and I had a tough choice here. I wound up going with Duncan on the strength of him leading the league in scoring with 29.3 ppg and chipping in 10.8 rpg and 2.9 bpg. He does everything you want your big man to do and does it extremely well.
BACKUP POWER FORWARD: Chris Webber (MIN) - PER: 30.9
This spot is a lot tougher than it looks. There are actually five really solid candidates for the backup spot; Shawn Kemp is his usual beastly self, averaging 27 and 9 with 3 blocks and a 37.0 PER. Shareef Abdur-Rahim has been a beast offensively, putting up 26.8 points and averaging 10.2 rebounds. Stacey Augmon has slid up to the power forward spot and as of this writing is scoring 26.1 while notching 6.7 rebounds. Kevin Garnett is scoring 25.6 points, averaging a surprisingly low 7.7 boards, and chipping in 1.2 steals and 1.6 blocks. Any one of these would have been a solid choice. Kemp has missed enough time this year that I don't think he's the automatic choice he's been in past seasons. I went with Webber, who is scoring the least of the group (24.6 ppg) but has added 8.8 boards (more than Garnett and Augmon), 3.5 assists (way more than anyone else), 1.7 blocks (more than anyone but Kemp) and even 1.0 steals (more than Shareef). All that said, this is a really tough spot to pick; all four of the guys I didn't pick are deserving, there are just 6 excellent PFs in the West and only 2 PF spots and 2 at-large spots, so two of them will get number-crunched out.
STARTING SMALL FORWAD: Cedric Ceballos (GSW) - PER: 27.1
With Kemp out for a significant portion of the early season, Ceballos stepped his game up massively, turning back the clock with 25.5 ppg and 8.1 rpg on better than 50% shooting. I keep waiting for him to be supplanted in the West, but with Augmon having shifted to Power Forwad, I think Ceballos gets to hang on to the starting spot one more year.
BACKUP SMALL FORWARD: Tracy McGrady (SAC) - PER: 25.1
McGrady got to step into Augmon's shoes when NOLa let Augmon go in Free Agency this past summer, and has responded pretty well, scoring 22.1 ppg and adding 6.3 board, 3.6 assists, 1.3 steals, and 0.9 blocks (best among SFs). He gets in front of the Wolves' Jim Jackson (19.9 ppg, 7.4 rpg, and 4.5 apg) because Jackson has been slowed by injuries and has missed a significant chunk of the season and Dallas' Donyell Marshall (18.8 ppg, 9.1 rpg, 2.3 apg), who may be better on the boards, but doesn't have the same sizzle on offense.
STARTING SHOOTING GUARD: Allen Iverson (PHX) - PER: 24.2
In the West, there are two guards that I think stand head and shoulders above the field, so it's easy to say who makes the all-star game; now it's just trying to guess in what order. The Answer has been under intense scrutiny this season, and there has been talk of Inner_GI giving up on him, but he has balled this year, putting up 22.6 points per game - good for second among SGs in the league - and 6.0 assists per game (only Steve Francis does better). His 1.9 steals are among the top at his position and he fouls less than the competition (2.4 vs. Vince Carter's 2.9). It's by a small margin, but I think he gets the start.
BACKUP SHOOTING GUARD: Vince Carter (VAN) - PER: 24.3
Vince backs up A.I. by the smallest of margins; he's a better scorer (24.5 ppg to 22.6) and rebounder (5.5 vs. 3.9) but doesn't pass (2.5 apg vs 6.0) or defend (0.8 steals to 1.9 and commits 2.9 fouls versus A.I.'s 2.4) nearly as well as A.I. does, so I have to ding him for that. That said, there's a considerable step down to the "next SG" (Ray Allen of the Spurs) so Vince is pretty secure as an All Star.
STARTING POINT GUARD: Nick Van Exel (LAC) - PER: 24.5
Nicky Van Smack is still one of the best offensive weapons in the league; he can score (18.7 ppg) and pass (9.5 apg), which means he is the Clippers' engine again this season. There's not a point guard in the West that scores or passes it like he does, so, like Duncan, he's exactly what you want from his position, making him an easy choice.
BACKUP POINT GUARD: Jason Kidd (LAL) - PER: 21.2
Robert Pack has made a very strong case in Dallas (21.7 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 7.3 apg, 2.0 spg), but even though Kidd can't touch Pack's scoring (only 11.9 ppg), he's the best-rebounding guard in the game (8.1) and only Van Exel passes better (8.9 apg). He also registers 1.8 steals per game, so it's not like the Pack-Man is running away with that category either. Besides, there's no way both Garnett AND Kidd could be left out of the top-10 all-star spots when the Lakers are sitting atop the West, right?
AT-LARGE SPOTS:
Kevin Garnett (LAL) - PER: 28.7
S.Abdur-Rahim (SAS) - PER: 26.8
As I discussed above, there are four deserving Power Forwards in the West that haven't been named to the roster at this point. I'm going to stick to my guns that Kemp's injury made him miss enough time that he will miss his first all-star game in a long time, so he's out. Augmon has been playing great, but I don't think he can deny Abdur-Rahim a spot with Shareef is averaging more points, a lot more rebounds, more blocks, and more assists... and fewer fouls. If Kemp is voted in, though, Shareef is the poor bubble guy who gets bumped out.
