What to expect when you're expecting a lotto pick
Posted: Fri Feb 09, 2018 2:48 pm
Top 10 picks need a lot of love and care if they're going to become the superstars of the future. Top 10 picks also need time to grow and mature into double-double machines, but how patient do you need to be with them?
I took the results from last year's training camp and averaged out the changes in skills and athleticism by age (up to age 29) to come up with an expectation for growth rates.
Then I took a list of all signed players as of the end of last year and averaged the skills by position to come up with a baseline for where the draft prospect will need to be in order to be a contributor. I then calculated how many years it would take for the prospect's total skills to come close to the league average. I didn't take into account that certain skills are more important than others.
The timeline could be shorter if you train your player, or longer if he gets hit in TC.
So when will your lottery pick be ready to contribute?
1. Erik Haynes - C - Kings - 4th Season
2. Donovan Mitchell - SG - Bucks - 4th Season
3. Damion Williams - SG - Lakers - 3rd Season
4. J.R. Johnson - PG - Jazz - 1st Season
5. Alvin Breseno - PF - Lakers - 3rd Season
6. Jaylen Brown - SF - Celtics - 1st Season
7. Tua Tagovailoa - SF - Warriors - 5th Season
8. Kristaps Porzingis - Raptors - 4th Season
9. Timothy Pulley - C - Heat - 4th Season
10. Joshua Swan - SG - Heat - 5th Season
I took the results from last year's training camp and averaged out the changes in skills and athleticism by age (up to age 29) to come up with an expectation for growth rates.
Then I took a list of all signed players as of the end of last year and averaged the skills by position to come up with a baseline for where the draft prospect will need to be in order to be a contributor. I then calculated how many years it would take for the prospect's total skills to come close to the league average. I didn't take into account that certain skills are more important than others.
The timeline could be shorter if you train your player, or longer if he gets hit in TC.
So when will your lottery pick be ready to contribute?
1. Erik Haynes - C - Kings - 4th Season
2. Donovan Mitchell - SG - Bucks - 4th Season
3. Damion Williams - SG - Lakers - 3rd Season
4. J.R. Johnson - PG - Jazz - 1st Season
5. Alvin Breseno - PF - Lakers - 3rd Season
6. Jaylen Brown - SF - Celtics - 1st Season
7. Tua Tagovailoa - SF - Warriors - 5th Season
8. Kristaps Porzingis - Raptors - 4th Season
9. Timothy Pulley - C - Heat - 4th Season
10. Joshua Swan - SG - Heat - 5th Season
