Nick and Josh look ahead to RFA 2013
Posted: Fri Feb 17, 2017 11:39 pm
While other teams gear up for the playoffs, Nick Malone and Josh "garbageman" Kalvelage take a look at the top 17 picks from the upcoming RFA class (the rest weren't as interesting). I hope I get bonus points for compiling.
1. Stephen Curry (garbageman)
The Warriors will spend whatever they have to on Stephen Curry. If they lose him, they won’t have much space to fill out their team. Steph is an efficient scoring machine, and the Warriors have had consistent success with Randolph and Jordan helming the front-court. With Randolph and Lewis on the last years of their contracts, look for the Warriors to pay Curry and bring back the same look for one last go around before they get rid of Z-Bo and Rashard and take on a different look. Steph will undoubtedly be back and making max money.
2. James Harden (malone)
James Harden: Ranked #7 on the SLOE Top 25 under 25, Harden is the heart and soul of the Chicago Bulls. Understandably so, he’s still going to get attention from just about every team in the league with cap space. With his skillset and athletic traits, Harden deserves the max contract. With the way this league is transitioning to a quicker and more ball dominated guard action, Harden is still evolving and growing in his offensive game and has hovered around 20 ppg/4 rebounds/ and 6-7 assists for the last 3 years. On the same token, the Bulls haven’t exactly been a competitive team around Harden to put together a squad capable of any appearances in the playoffs. One has to wonder if Harden gets a max deal from a team like the Cavaliers, Spurs, or even Kings, if he would bolt for a chance leave Chicago. Chicago would be nuts to lose Harden and ultimately don’t see the Bulls letting him go anywhere.
3. Blake Griffin (garbageman)
Blake Griffin is the best player on the Seattle Supersonics right now, and that’s by a longshot. The Supersonics will pay whatever it takes to keep Griffin, and they have the cap space to do that and still add some pieces. With a high pick in the draft coming as well, the Supersonics will have the pieces in place to build a team with Griffin as a centerpiece for years to come. He’ll be paid the max.
4. Jrue Holiday (malone)
2012 hasn’t exactly been the best year for Jrue Holiday. Entering the final year of his rookie contract, I’m sure the Mavericks were expecting a bit more of growth from their lead point guard. After signing Kirk Hinrich in the offseason, Kirk assumed lead point guard duties midway through the year forcing Jrue to shift over to shooting guard. He missed 26 games due to injury and the Mavs have always felt more comfortable running him off the second unit. The Mavericks have been extremely patient with Jrue’s development and a few cases of TC Insurance has saved Holiday from turning into another Mike Conley. Holiday still highlights good potentials in the main categories you need from a standard point guard in handles and passing and defense and is only just 22 years old. He’s never averaged more than 9 ppg and 3-4 assists per game in his career. One has to wonder if the Mavericks will match a large contract from a team like the Bulls or Wizards or Clippers for someone that really doesn’t deserve one.
5. DeMar DeRozan (garbageman)
The Mavs might try to get him for cheaper than the max, especially since they’re going to have to put up some money for Jrue Holiday as well. DeRozan provides top-notch offense and athleticism. His defense may not be max quality, but with the physical prowess that DeRozan has, he can play either of the wing spots with ease and there are plenty of teams out there who have the space to pay and could use a player like DeMar. Still, I think the Mavs hold onto him. They dropped Kirk Hinrich’s contract which was a pretty nice value. Despite his age, Kirk was undoubtedly productive. The Mavs also don’t give away their players easily, so that they dropped Kirk’s contract shows they’re willing to spend money to retain their current core of young, productive players into the future. While they might get a little bit of a discount on Jrue, they’re going to have to max DeRozan.
6. Ricky Rubio (malone)
While Ricky may not be the most exciting point guard to watch offensively, he’s already one of the top point guards considered in this RFA class. Rubio led the league this year in assists at 11.3 per game and playing with a talent like Paul George and CJ Miles (a pending UFA), those assists will continue to rack up. The Jazz have an exciting young trio with Jonas Valanciunas at the 5, including the already mention Paul George and have just 25 mil in cap space for the upcoming offseason ahead. Chances are slim Rubio heads elsewhere. Future is looking bright in Utah and only way Rubio leaves is if the power is somehow cut from the Prej manor
.
7. Tyreke Evans (garbageman)
This is where things get interesting for me. Tyreke Evans might be my first pick to move teams. He’s a very good player, but he’s not the kind of player that the Wizards would want to max out, especially given the contracts of their other players. They’d be saddled with the same team for a few more years, and it’s a team that can win, but it probably would need a bit of a tweak to be in the conversation for a championship. If the Wizards can retain him for a steal, that’ll happen, but he’s not the ideal point guard to mix with the rest of their players. If the ‘zards do keep Tyreke Evans, look for them to deal some of their other players. Wilson Chandler was on the trade block all year and didn’t move, but with 8 figure contracts on Mbah A Moute, McGee, Illyasova, and Chandler for at least 2 more years a piece, paying Tyreke would not equate to progress without moving one of their other major players. Of course, with Jarrett Jack’s contract expiring and Alexey Shved untested, the Wizards might have to take the cap hit. On the other hand, the right team outbidding the Wizards might produce an interesting sign and trade opportunity. A team like the Pistons might be the perfect fit for a deal like this.
8. Ty Lawson (malone)
Lawson was exceptional for Rockets in 2012 and really showcased why he could be worthy of a max contract. Career highs in ppg, assists, steals, and shot 46% from the field. He also registered a significant increase of efficiency offensively and defensively this year and a PER of over 20 for the first time in his career. While the Rockets disappointingly missed the playoffs in the stacked Western Conference, Lawsons ability is as intriguing as the other guards already mentioned on this list. The Rockets have plenty of cap space and would see a significant drop in attendance if they were to allow Lawson to walk to fellow instate rival Dallas, or even the Pistons in Auburn Hills.
9. Jeff Teague (garbageman)
I say Teague is declined and goes into UFA. The Hawks COULD get a solid deal on Teague if they want to keep him as a backup PG for years, but with Jeremy Lin as the clear choice for the Hawks going forward, Atlanta might be better off saving the money long term and picking up a serviceable player on a min deal. Another team will pick him up in UFA for a few million.
10. Danny Green (malone)
Notable pariah, RPF of the Nets is in an interesting position. With his team already stacked against the cap, he’s looking at a heft cap bill ahead. Now, that could be alleviated if Jameer Nelson were to opt out from his player option for free agency. Nets as a team were led behind the powers of Chris Kaman but still managed to finish right around .500. Danny Green has already bounced around from a few teams before seeing this RFA contract bonus he’s about to receive. Green is already seeing tremendous gains offensively and is primed to continue to grow. Shooting 44% from three was good for fifth best in the league. Green is definitely a young chip the Nets would like to retain but with their cap situation being what it is and with what little depth they have, the Nets may be looking to press the reset button if they can’t find a new home for Kaman and or Nick Young. Still unclear if Green is really apart of that future. The Hornets could be of interest to Green who formerly had him a few seasons ago in the Zach Randolph to Golden State type deal and would be an interesting pairing next to Damian Lillard. The Milwaukee Bucks could also be of interest who seemingly have an already full team but could be a nice fit next to the lawguard firm of Kemba/Kyrie/Conley.
11. DeMarre Carroll (garbageman)
The Philadelphia 76ers have spent a lot of money to be as dominant as they have been. This year, they’ll have to decide whether to pay up Taj Gibson and DeMarre Carroll or try to get cheaper. The 6ers shopped both players this year but ultimately weren’t able to deal either one. After an excellent start to the season, Carroll cooled down a bit, but he’s still a formidable SF with a great 3 point shot and defensive ability. The 76ers will exercise his option and sign him if they can get him for a fair price, but they could also opt to sign and trade him to get some value. They only have 4 players on contract next year and will need to jump the cap for another year, regardless. They might bite the bullet and match on Carroll while trying to get rid of an expiring contract like Stoudemire (especially if they can resign Taj). I say he’s not worth max unless a savvy team really wants to screw the 76ers over cap-wise. They do have a high lotto pick coming thanks to the Hornets, so it really depends who they can get in the draft. If they get a player who can replace Carroll, like Antetekounpo or Porter, they might be more likely to get rid of Carroll. If they can land a future guard, though, someone complementary to the rest of the lineup, they might be apt to keep Carroll around for another four years.
12. Darren Collison (malone)
The Kings have so many pieces of intrigue and look like a real threat in the Western Conference. With all the talent there’s a case to be made that this team would be in the thick of the lotto ranks without the play and impact of Collison. Collison had career highs in just about every category this year and while he may not be in the same category as a Steph Curry or Ricky Rubio, playing on the team with one of the best training staffs in the entire league, it’s hard to envision Collison going anywhere but Sacramento. If the Sacramento farm team in Philadelphia were to shed of Ramon Sessions, they could convince Collison enough to head east. Though one wonders if the in-team fighting of syndicate Kings franchises is worth it for a large popcorn to see a S&T discussion actually exist between these two clubs.
13. Brandon Jennings (garbageman)
Brandon Jennings is a solid PG, and even with the younger Brandon Knight being a suitable replacement, the Heat would probably rather retain Jennings, who is a little better where it counts for a PG. The Heat, however, are going to be paying cap fines for a while between the 4 gigantic contracts of O.J. Mayo, LeBron James, Serge Ibaka, and Al Jefferson. One more big contract could crush them with incredibly expensive cap penalties for years to come, but they could try to retain Jennings for ridiculously cheap and at least aim for a couple serviceable bench players on long contracts to ease their cap woes. Either way, I don’t see them matching a contract over 10 or 12 million for the first year if they can’t work out a sign and trade.
14. Marcus Thornton (malone)
Playing on one of the best teams in the game, Thornton’s skill and game often gets hidden behind the reigning MVP, Chris Bosh. The skills and potentials don’t really leap out off the page and his stats leave a little to be desired. At least he’s been healthy and hasn’t missed but just one game in his rookie season. The Wolves as a franchise though do hold extreme loyalties to its core but one has to wonder if Thornton is thinking more about cashing in than his first round matchup with the Utah Jazz.
15. Wesley Matthews (garbageman)
The Orlando Magic released Kevin Martin so that Wesley Matthews could have that max money. Even after maxing Wes, they’ll have room to make a play at a better big man than they had last year. Wes was their leading scorer, they have the cap space, and there’s not a better, surefire way to spend another 20 million. They’ll secure themselves a magnificent back court and should see improvements by adding some higher quality bigs to bolster that back court.
16. Taj Gibson (malone)
With seemingly no room to play Taj Gibson in the loaded front court of Philly, Taj Gibson is a uniquely talented player. He’s going to be 28 years old by the time he hits RFA but has shown flashes of excellent play while coming off the bench in Philly. He’s a strong rebounder and defender and Philly was even looking to deal him at the trade deadline for a relatively light return apparently speaking from the trade reports but ultimately couldn’t get anything done by the time the clock hit midnight. Philly might allow Gibson to walk if he were to receive an 8 digit multi-million dollar contract.
17. Jordan Hill (garbageman)
Jordan Hill provides a very interesting scenario for the San Antonio Spurs. They have Afflalo and Westbrook locked in, but with Smith and Scola entering free agency, the only other surefire pieces they have are Jimmer Freddette and an overpriced Big Baby. The Spurs will want Hill back for his defensive presence, but I don’t see them able to match a team like the Pacers who have a lot of money to spend (though most of it will go to supermaxing Deron Williams) and a big need for big men.
1. Stephen Curry (garbageman)
The Warriors will spend whatever they have to on Stephen Curry. If they lose him, they won’t have much space to fill out their team. Steph is an efficient scoring machine, and the Warriors have had consistent success with Randolph and Jordan helming the front-court. With Randolph and Lewis on the last years of their contracts, look for the Warriors to pay Curry and bring back the same look for one last go around before they get rid of Z-Bo and Rashard and take on a different look. Steph will undoubtedly be back and making max money.
2. James Harden (malone)
James Harden: Ranked #7 on the SLOE Top 25 under 25, Harden is the heart and soul of the Chicago Bulls. Understandably so, he’s still going to get attention from just about every team in the league with cap space. With his skillset and athletic traits, Harden deserves the max contract. With the way this league is transitioning to a quicker and more ball dominated guard action, Harden is still evolving and growing in his offensive game and has hovered around 20 ppg/4 rebounds/ and 6-7 assists for the last 3 years. On the same token, the Bulls haven’t exactly been a competitive team around Harden to put together a squad capable of any appearances in the playoffs. One has to wonder if Harden gets a max deal from a team like the Cavaliers, Spurs, or even Kings, if he would bolt for a chance leave Chicago. Chicago would be nuts to lose Harden and ultimately don’t see the Bulls letting him go anywhere.
3. Blake Griffin (garbageman)
Blake Griffin is the best player on the Seattle Supersonics right now, and that’s by a longshot. The Supersonics will pay whatever it takes to keep Griffin, and they have the cap space to do that and still add some pieces. With a high pick in the draft coming as well, the Supersonics will have the pieces in place to build a team with Griffin as a centerpiece for years to come. He’ll be paid the max.
4. Jrue Holiday (malone)
2012 hasn’t exactly been the best year for Jrue Holiday. Entering the final year of his rookie contract, I’m sure the Mavericks were expecting a bit more of growth from their lead point guard. After signing Kirk Hinrich in the offseason, Kirk assumed lead point guard duties midway through the year forcing Jrue to shift over to shooting guard. He missed 26 games due to injury and the Mavs have always felt more comfortable running him off the second unit. The Mavericks have been extremely patient with Jrue’s development and a few cases of TC Insurance has saved Holiday from turning into another Mike Conley. Holiday still highlights good potentials in the main categories you need from a standard point guard in handles and passing and defense and is only just 22 years old. He’s never averaged more than 9 ppg and 3-4 assists per game in his career. One has to wonder if the Mavericks will match a large contract from a team like the Bulls or Wizards or Clippers for someone that really doesn’t deserve one.
5. DeMar DeRozan (garbageman)
The Mavs might try to get him for cheaper than the max, especially since they’re going to have to put up some money for Jrue Holiday as well. DeRozan provides top-notch offense and athleticism. His defense may not be max quality, but with the physical prowess that DeRozan has, he can play either of the wing spots with ease and there are plenty of teams out there who have the space to pay and could use a player like DeMar. Still, I think the Mavs hold onto him. They dropped Kirk Hinrich’s contract which was a pretty nice value. Despite his age, Kirk was undoubtedly productive. The Mavs also don’t give away their players easily, so that they dropped Kirk’s contract shows they’re willing to spend money to retain their current core of young, productive players into the future. While they might get a little bit of a discount on Jrue, they’re going to have to max DeRozan.
6. Ricky Rubio (malone)
While Ricky may not be the most exciting point guard to watch offensively, he’s already one of the top point guards considered in this RFA class. Rubio led the league this year in assists at 11.3 per game and playing with a talent like Paul George and CJ Miles (a pending UFA), those assists will continue to rack up. The Jazz have an exciting young trio with Jonas Valanciunas at the 5, including the already mention Paul George and have just 25 mil in cap space for the upcoming offseason ahead. Chances are slim Rubio heads elsewhere. Future is looking bright in Utah and only way Rubio leaves is if the power is somehow cut from the Prej manor
.
7. Tyreke Evans (garbageman)
This is where things get interesting for me. Tyreke Evans might be my first pick to move teams. He’s a very good player, but he’s not the kind of player that the Wizards would want to max out, especially given the contracts of their other players. They’d be saddled with the same team for a few more years, and it’s a team that can win, but it probably would need a bit of a tweak to be in the conversation for a championship. If the Wizards can retain him for a steal, that’ll happen, but he’s not the ideal point guard to mix with the rest of their players. If the ‘zards do keep Tyreke Evans, look for them to deal some of their other players. Wilson Chandler was on the trade block all year and didn’t move, but with 8 figure contracts on Mbah A Moute, McGee, Illyasova, and Chandler for at least 2 more years a piece, paying Tyreke would not equate to progress without moving one of their other major players. Of course, with Jarrett Jack’s contract expiring and Alexey Shved untested, the Wizards might have to take the cap hit. On the other hand, the right team outbidding the Wizards might produce an interesting sign and trade opportunity. A team like the Pistons might be the perfect fit for a deal like this.
8. Ty Lawson (malone)
Lawson was exceptional for Rockets in 2012 and really showcased why he could be worthy of a max contract. Career highs in ppg, assists, steals, and shot 46% from the field. He also registered a significant increase of efficiency offensively and defensively this year and a PER of over 20 for the first time in his career. While the Rockets disappointingly missed the playoffs in the stacked Western Conference, Lawsons ability is as intriguing as the other guards already mentioned on this list. The Rockets have plenty of cap space and would see a significant drop in attendance if they were to allow Lawson to walk to fellow instate rival Dallas, or even the Pistons in Auburn Hills.
9. Jeff Teague (garbageman)
I say Teague is declined and goes into UFA. The Hawks COULD get a solid deal on Teague if they want to keep him as a backup PG for years, but with Jeremy Lin as the clear choice for the Hawks going forward, Atlanta might be better off saving the money long term and picking up a serviceable player on a min deal. Another team will pick him up in UFA for a few million.
10. Danny Green (malone)
Notable pariah, RPF of the Nets is in an interesting position. With his team already stacked against the cap, he’s looking at a heft cap bill ahead. Now, that could be alleviated if Jameer Nelson were to opt out from his player option for free agency. Nets as a team were led behind the powers of Chris Kaman but still managed to finish right around .500. Danny Green has already bounced around from a few teams before seeing this RFA contract bonus he’s about to receive. Green is already seeing tremendous gains offensively and is primed to continue to grow. Shooting 44% from three was good for fifth best in the league. Green is definitely a young chip the Nets would like to retain but with their cap situation being what it is and with what little depth they have, the Nets may be looking to press the reset button if they can’t find a new home for Kaman and or Nick Young. Still unclear if Green is really apart of that future. The Hornets could be of interest to Green who formerly had him a few seasons ago in the Zach Randolph to Golden State type deal and would be an interesting pairing next to Damian Lillard. The Milwaukee Bucks could also be of interest who seemingly have an already full team but could be a nice fit next to the lawguard firm of Kemba/Kyrie/Conley.
11. DeMarre Carroll (garbageman)
The Philadelphia 76ers have spent a lot of money to be as dominant as they have been. This year, they’ll have to decide whether to pay up Taj Gibson and DeMarre Carroll or try to get cheaper. The 6ers shopped both players this year but ultimately weren’t able to deal either one. After an excellent start to the season, Carroll cooled down a bit, but he’s still a formidable SF with a great 3 point shot and defensive ability. The 76ers will exercise his option and sign him if they can get him for a fair price, but they could also opt to sign and trade him to get some value. They only have 4 players on contract next year and will need to jump the cap for another year, regardless. They might bite the bullet and match on Carroll while trying to get rid of an expiring contract like Stoudemire (especially if they can resign Taj). I say he’s not worth max unless a savvy team really wants to screw the 76ers over cap-wise. They do have a high lotto pick coming thanks to the Hornets, so it really depends who they can get in the draft. If they get a player who can replace Carroll, like Antetekounpo or Porter, they might be more likely to get rid of Carroll. If they can land a future guard, though, someone complementary to the rest of the lineup, they might be apt to keep Carroll around for another four years.
12. Darren Collison (malone)
The Kings have so many pieces of intrigue and look like a real threat in the Western Conference. With all the talent there’s a case to be made that this team would be in the thick of the lotto ranks without the play and impact of Collison. Collison had career highs in just about every category this year and while he may not be in the same category as a Steph Curry or Ricky Rubio, playing on the team with one of the best training staffs in the entire league, it’s hard to envision Collison going anywhere but Sacramento. If the Sacramento farm team in Philadelphia were to shed of Ramon Sessions, they could convince Collison enough to head east. Though one wonders if the in-team fighting of syndicate Kings franchises is worth it for a large popcorn to see a S&T discussion actually exist between these two clubs.
13. Brandon Jennings (garbageman)
Brandon Jennings is a solid PG, and even with the younger Brandon Knight being a suitable replacement, the Heat would probably rather retain Jennings, who is a little better where it counts for a PG. The Heat, however, are going to be paying cap fines for a while between the 4 gigantic contracts of O.J. Mayo, LeBron James, Serge Ibaka, and Al Jefferson. One more big contract could crush them with incredibly expensive cap penalties for years to come, but they could try to retain Jennings for ridiculously cheap and at least aim for a couple serviceable bench players on long contracts to ease their cap woes. Either way, I don’t see them matching a contract over 10 or 12 million for the first year if they can’t work out a sign and trade.
14. Marcus Thornton (malone)
Playing on one of the best teams in the game, Thornton’s skill and game often gets hidden behind the reigning MVP, Chris Bosh. The skills and potentials don’t really leap out off the page and his stats leave a little to be desired. At least he’s been healthy and hasn’t missed but just one game in his rookie season. The Wolves as a franchise though do hold extreme loyalties to its core but one has to wonder if Thornton is thinking more about cashing in than his first round matchup with the Utah Jazz.
15. Wesley Matthews (garbageman)
The Orlando Magic released Kevin Martin so that Wesley Matthews could have that max money. Even after maxing Wes, they’ll have room to make a play at a better big man than they had last year. Wes was their leading scorer, they have the cap space, and there’s not a better, surefire way to spend another 20 million. They’ll secure themselves a magnificent back court and should see improvements by adding some higher quality bigs to bolster that back court.
16. Taj Gibson (malone)
With seemingly no room to play Taj Gibson in the loaded front court of Philly, Taj Gibson is a uniquely talented player. He’s going to be 28 years old by the time he hits RFA but has shown flashes of excellent play while coming off the bench in Philly. He’s a strong rebounder and defender and Philly was even looking to deal him at the trade deadline for a relatively light return apparently speaking from the trade reports but ultimately couldn’t get anything done by the time the clock hit midnight. Philly might allow Gibson to walk if he were to receive an 8 digit multi-million dollar contract.
17. Jordan Hill (garbageman)
Jordan Hill provides a very interesting scenario for the San Antonio Spurs. They have Afflalo and Westbrook locked in, but with Smith and Scola entering free agency, the only other surefire pieces they have are Jimmer Freddette and an overpriced Big Baby. The Spurs will want Hill back for his defensive presence, but I don’t see them able to match a team like the Pacers who have a lot of money to spend (though most of it will go to supermaxing Deron Williams) and a big need for big men.