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SLOE FANTASY FANTASY DRAFT OF THE AGES - Article 2 of 2

Posted: Mon Aug 08, 2022 11:18 pm
by garbageman
A while ago, AngryBanana told me about an idea he had for an article where he and the three GMs from his branch of the ol' PBSL tree would do a mock draft to see who could put together a team with the likeliest shot against either the Pacers or Pistons. The rules were simple. Each team had to stay under the salary cap (or the apron...I'm not sure what the gang eventually settled on). Any player was eligible except players on the Pistons or Pacers.

I told him, "Sure, kid. Go follow your dreams."

A few days later, he comes back to me. He's got a draft, he's got spreadsheets, he's got Google docs. But he's missing one thing...star power! As a former multiple Media Entry of the Year Award winner, he thought I could really take this mock draft to the next level by looking at anonymized draft results and determining which team would fare the best against the Pacers or the Pistons.

By that time, the rules had been set, and the Pacers had faded back a little bit, falling to second behind the Spurs in the Alpha Conference. Regardless, as of this writing, the Pistons are 8.5 games ahead of the next best record, and they're on pace for the best record of all time. As good as the Pacers are, and as much as they've exceeded expectations, the Pistons are the team to beat, so I'm going to focus on them when judging the four expansion teams drafted by AB, K100, jlmarines, and SuperDog.

But first...what does a team need to beat the Pistons?

The Pistons have been running a starting lineup of Cade Cunningham, Alex Caruso, Ferguson Only, Gerry Folse, and Douglas Haun. Alex Caruso is their only purple current, an athletic 6'5 shooting guard who's toting double hundos in JPS and TPS with a 93 PRD to boot. The other half of their backcourt, Cade Cunningham, boasts 100s in INS, TPS, and PRD. Of course, you're going to want good defenders in the guard spot to slow them down, but they're still going to get some points. And on the other side, they're going to slow your scoring down if your offense comes from the perimeter. Neither of these two have much in terms of a steal rating, so if you've got a backcourt that can get the ball inside through passing or even through high QKN with a good INS rating (which is never a bad idea) to get inside and draw some fouls, that could help your team out. Cade, for example, isn't the quickest option at PG, and he's not super tall to account for it either.

In the frontcourt, we've got a duo of Douglas Haun and Gerry Folse. They've got a lot of similarities and a lot of differences. For one, they can both score inside and are both really solid jump shooters. They're also going to out-rebound pretty much any team out there. Both also have 100 in block. The difference is that Folse is an elite defender. Haun is a foul machine. Their backup, Eloy Tilton, is also a foul machine and a much less dangerous option everywhere else. One of the main focal points I'd want in going up against the Pistons is a dominant, athletic Center who can get Haun out of the game fast. As for Folse, I might want to go big. If I see a team with a twin towers approach, Folse's 6'8" stature could be slightly mitigated.

The last part of the Pistons I want to focus on is the SF spot. They've been hanging with Ferguson Olney for most of the season and bringing Frank Daly off the bench as a super 6th man / finisher. He actually plays more than any of the starters. His versatility off the bench props up an otherwise lackluster bench unit. A deep team should be both helpful and possible if we've got most of the league to choose from. As for Ferguson, he can still hit a three and play some perimeter D, but he's pretty limited. It shouldn't be difficult to outmatch him here, and Olney's strengths are more suited towards the backcourt than the paint. I'd go for someone who can hit Olney where he's least comfortable.


So What Would MY Draft Strategy Be?

Well, without a doubt, early on, I'd want the best player available...one who's versatile and can do it all. I'd say right now that'd either be Genaro Montoya or Saddiq Bey. Talen Horton-Tucker might be an honorable mention, but if he's available later, there might be too much overlap between these three players to warrant spending over half your salary cap on two of them.

In terms of role-players, there are a few bigs I have my eye on. Jericho Sims is a great value in terms of a big who is a solid two-way player on a value contract. Evan Mobley is a guy who probably will be available later than he should be...an athletic big man who can score, defend, and draw fouls (and make the free throws). He lacks in certain areas though, which makes it tough because his contract is bigger, but he'd be a solid matchup against Haun. Finally, Lyman Bradley is a great value contract on a min. The same can be said about Harold Schiff. And Kai Jones makes less than 50 million dollars. He might not exploit any of the weaknesses mentioned in the previous section, but he can just flat out outplay Haun. He'd be an interesting round 2 target if he sticks around.

Next, we'll check out what the guard market looks like. The only purple current guard out there is Lyle Galloway. He's expensive, but he might be to Cade Cunningham what Kai Jones is to Haun. His defense is world class, and he can score as well...it'd be interesting to see what he could do on a team where he wasn't third fiddle. As far as value goes, Luguentz Dort still an do it all, and he's been elevating the Pelicans a lot this season. At 47.5 million, he's a guy to keep an eye on, though his waning athleticism and small height don't make that price tag an absolute steal--just a reasonable one. In terms of smaller contracts, you're not going to find a min value PG,, but Mark Adkinson is a very overlooked option at 26mm. He can facilitate an offense and play solid D.


Anyway, let's look at the teams and who they drafted. First:

Womp Womp WinneRs

1-1. Killian Hayes $77,254,488
2-4. Mitchell Robinson $35,072,153
3-1. Safi Fino-A-Laself $9,804,419
4-4. Jericho Sims $34,000,000
5-1. Xue Huo $15,693,839
6-4. Bam Adebayo $5,500,000
7-1. Clarence Martin $4,879,840
8-4. Anas Mahmoud $9,023,012
9-1. Raphael Gordon $14,285,569
10-4. Danny Campbell $20,000,000

So, does this team beat the Pistons?

First off, Killian Hayes is selected first overall over every purple player (none of whom have a bigger contract). Hayes, for a while, was the best player in the league. At 33 years old and almost 80mm dollars, he's not only not the best player in the league anymore, but not a player I was even considering because he takes up too much of a chunk of the cap. Mitch Rob is also an odd choice in the second round considering who else was available. The first pick I like a lot from the WWW team is Sims in the 4th round. Maybe that's homerism on my end (I wouldn't have picked him earlier, though), but I just think a big making half of a max and posting a PER on par with the Pistons best players is a solid pick. The rest of the list seems to be pretty heavy on players who look like they'll be good one day, but aren't there yet: Safi, Xue, Clarence Martin, Anas Mahmoud, and Raphael Gordon all fit into this category.

I don't think enough defense is there to stop the Pistons backcourt, and I don't think the size advantage in the frontcourt will be enough to make up for the damage the other members of the Pistons can do. Sure, the bench is deeper than the Pistons bench because of Danny Campbell and Bam Adebayo, but the depth is lopsided towards guys who really should be playing Center. The starting lineup (and the backcourt in general), however, has too many holes in it. Take the Pistons out of the equation, and this team--this year--probably isn't a shoe-in to win the whole thing. The Pistons are, and that's what you need.



Next up: Ron's Affordable Suites

1-2. Antonio Blakeney $54,591,729
2-3. Johnny Davis $15,213,863
3-2. Luguentz Dort $47,500,000
4-3. Les Kim $62,450,416
5-2. Chief Kickingstallionsims $7,751,739
6-3. Greg Brown $4,954,400
7-2. Brian Loos $6,061,204
8-3. Reginald Fulford $2,810,269
9-2. Thurman James $15,000,000
10-3. Chadwick Dangerfield $12,000,000

Now don't get me wrong. I LOVE Antonio Blakeney, but with everyone available except for Killian Hayes, he's not the flagship guy I'm taking to beat the Pistons. One interesting thing I'm getting from this list (and the last one) is that folks are trying to get value contracts earlier, and then they have 8 figures to spend on their 9th and 10th guy. If you've got money left over at the end to do that, you've played the draft wrong. A playoff rotation doesn't need to be 10 deep. Personally, I'd be worried only about the top 8 guys at all, and I'd only start to worry about money about halfway through that.

Now, I like Johnny Davis as a value pick, but I wouldn't grab him that early in the second round. He's having a hell of a season on the stat sheets though, so I can see why he was high on someone's radar. I already wrote about how I liked Dort as a PG option, but I think that if I was going to draft a PG that early, I probably would've gone with someone else...especially considering that Kai Jones was available and the 9th and 10th picks salaries could have been combined into Mark Adkinson. However, one look at Dort's stats this season put any doubt on him alone to rest. Dude is an offensive maestro.

Overall, I like the big three on this team a lot better than the Womp Womp WinneRs. I think Les Kim is a tremendous player, a blue potential worthy of his max, as a DPOY, All-League caliber player who never fouls. I don't think these picks are tight enough to take the Pistons, but it'd be an exciting and close series. I don't think the bench is as strong as the previous team's, so no advantage is gained over Frank Daily and a couple of green current players, and as far as the starting lineups go, it's close, but the Pistons have a little bit more defense where it matters and enough offensive firepower everywhere else.


Wombats

1-3. Genaro Montoya $67,196,561
2-2. Talen Horton-Tucker $64,859,290
3-3. Lenz Durrenberger $14,632,944
4-2. Geronimo Rubio de la Rosa $10,702,589
5-3. Luigi Leathers $26,055,337
6-2. Tony Throckmorton $18,500,000
7-3. Trey Murphy III $13,661,029
8-2. Arthur Scruggs $4,700,664
9-3. Dario Beaton $4,954,400
10-2. Ronnie Reynolds $4,954,400

The Wombats did a great job with their first two picks. I would've ranked Montoya top of the crop with Bey a close second. And despite what I said about not needing both THT and Montoya earlier, they're pretty versatile players, so it's not the end of the world to have two players with similar skillsets at their sizes. I'm not as wild about the next couple of picks. Lenz is another guy who's not quite there yet, and GRdlR is going to get absolutely trampled by Cade Cunningham. I think Leathers at 5 is okay, but not so much Throckmorton at 6. That makes the top 4 contracts on the team frontcourt players. Sure, you can play Montoya and Tucker at the 3, but the other one has to go to the 4. There are enough vet mins that could suffice instead of a less versatile player like Throckmorton.

Overall against the Pistons, some of the pieces I talk about are there. Geronimo can pass, and Montoya is the type of player you build a Piston beating team around. But there are little cracks where improvements could be made. There are cheaper options at C who can provide better scoring and better defense and more likelihood to put foul pressure on Haun. I'd even go so far to say that Montoya or THT at C would be the move I'd make. If they switched out Leathers and Throckmorton and used the ensuing salary for upgrades to Lenz and Rubio de la Rosa (or tall but defensive PF to try and contain Folse), there might be a better chance to beat the Pistons.

A lot of the strategy was right though. Spend first, and go for the best players you can get first. Don't worry about saving for your deep bench. And when all else fails, having a player like Montoya can make a huge difference.


And finally...Padrino's 15

1-4. Darius Garland $53,322,154
2-1. Saddiq Bey $59,877,249
3-4. Tony Parris $6,400,043
4-1. Harold Schiff $2,810,269
5-4. Ned Lomax $11,734,969
6-1. Toni Gauss $54,746,331
7-4. Teddy Dizon $3,953,927
8-1. Lyman Bradley $4,163,361
9-4. Jeffery Jackson $8,800,000
10-1. David Lomas $2,810,269

Since this is a snake draft, the Bey and Garland picks could have been swapped around, so I can't get too up in arms about Bey not being a first rounder. I like Garland and Bey, and both of them being on the Bucks really tilts this towards being able to compare this team to the Bucks. I think this team could take the Bucks. I really like the Bradley and Schiff drafts to cover the need for a big man without breaking the bank.

The one thing I will say about Garland is that even as a pure PG, there are very few players out there who can give Cade Cunningham a run for his money at pure PG. You kind of need an OP wing that's so built up they can play PG, and right now, I don't think the league has an answer there with guys like Yandell and Hayes aging out. I think the Lomax, Gauss, and Jeffrey Jackson picks could have been better spent. Gauss is great, but there are definitely players out there I'd take first at that salary. That being said though, he's got high value for that 6th round.

Overall, I think this team had a solid draft, and it's really another team that could make things close with the Pistons. However, I still like the Pistons starting lineup better. Bey is a clear problem for the Pistons, but I'd say he'd be the only one. Gauss and Garland are an excellent backcourt, but I'd still rather have Cunningham and Caruso. There were a lot of smart low dollar singings to round out that C spot, and the depth in the paint is a lot stronger than the Pistons. They're not the only team that could beat the Pistons, but I could see this being a tough matchup for Detroit.


Overall

The Pistons are a tough team, but I'm a little surprised that given the rest of the league, there's not a team that blows Detroit off the page as strongly as Detroit blows the rest of the league's rosters off the page.

And comparing these teams to each other, I think, was incredibly tough.

When it comes down to it, I'm not sure any team takes the Pistons, but the one I think I'd ride in with is Ron's Affordable Suites. While I love the versatility of Montoya and THT, the rest of the Wombats draft kind of precludes playing either one of them where I'd want to play them for lack of better options outside of thee paint. I think the Womp Womp WinneRs simply drafted players that were either on the downswing, or not quite there yet. And I think the Padrino's 15 had a really strong draft, but it's hard to argue with the players from Ron's. While I was scratching my head on some of the picks, digging into this years stats shows some guys who are really mashing it in Blakeney, Les Kim, Dort, and even some of the deeper, quieter picks like Brian Loos.

I still think the Pistons win it all, and I do think that there are a few swaps I could make that would keep some of these teams under the cap but put them over the Pistons. But I think all the teams did a solid job drafting, and the differences between the top three were pretty slim. I went with my first instinct, and after second guessing a few times, I felt like I could've wavered endlessly, and thus, went back to my gut feeling.

Re: SLOE FANTASY FANTASY DRAFT OF THE AGES - Article 2 of 2

Posted: Wed Aug 10, 2022 3:11 pm
by greepleairport
2800+ words, +9pts